A - Austria

Charles Brown9 said:I was out in Austin this weekend for a Rolling Stones concert, and I couldn't help but notice that the Democratic Party hasn't put up any posters at all. The entire city is covered in Sebastian Kurz's campaign materials, and the Republican Party has plenty of signage out too—you see the same thing all along the highway.

Interesting observation... In Washington, D.C., I saw nothing but posters from those "Nazis" (as they call them). Most of them seem to be mocking Sebastian Kurz on one side, while putting up one of their own guys with a completely contradictory statement—I specifically remember something regarding Islam, right next to the station where there's a huge concentration of Turks 🤣.

😂

The Democratic Party is staring down an absolute train wreck. We’re just two weeks out from the election, and it feels like every single day, some new piece of campaign dirt is being dragged into the light. It isn't just one thing, either. First, you had their guy Alex Braun—who actually goes by Tal Silberstein—getting arrested in Israel a few weeks back during some anti-corruption crackdown. Now, it turns out Silberstein was busy spreading blatant lies about Sebastian Kurz as part of the campaign strategy. And the kicker? They kept letting him run his mouth even after they cut ties following his arrest. 😁

It seems like "fake news" is only considered a scandal when the other side is the one doing it. 🤦

Yesterday, Christian Kern’s campaign manager stepped down, and today, Kern is suddenly calling for an "investigation." 🤣

At this point, the only real question left is whether the Democratic Party is going to slide into second or third place. 🙏

The Democratic Party can only save Strache from the FPOE. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the red and blue sides just formed a coalition against Sebastian Kurz.

Carol Newman2 said:The Democratic Party can only save Strache from the FPOE. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if the red and blue sides just formed a coalition against Sebastian Kurz.

I don't see that happening at all. 😉

Jeffrey Long said:I don't see that happening at all. 😉

We'll see. The FPOE is definitely going to have a seat at the table within The Government. The real question is just who ends up offering Strache a better deal: Christian Kern or Sebastian Kurz.

For Sebastian Kurz, pulling together a coalition between the Democrats and the Republicans would be the ultimate long-term win. Honestly, though, I don't see that happening; my gut tells me the FPOE and the EPP will end up joining forces instead.

At the end of the day, someone else needs to step up and take over the FPOE. While Hofer wasn't perfect, he was certainly a much more approachable figure than Strache.

Scandal erupts over alleged "dirty campaigning" ahead of the Austrian elections: Far-right surge gaining momentum

Latest polling data for the upcoming elections in Austria:



Honestly, Americans would have a field day watching these Austrians; they are absolute champions at televised debates. It feels like there isn’t a single day where party leaders aren't going head-to-head. You've got the SPÖ against the FPÖ, the Republican Party against the SPÖ, the Republican Party against the FPÖ, the FPÖ versus the Green Party, the SPÖ versus the Greens, and then the Republican Party tackling the Greens. And it's happening constantly across all the major networks like PBS, Fox News, and CNN.

Just imagine if we had a televised showdown between Petrov and Andrej Plenković, or even Plenković and Dominik Peranić. Man, the ratings would be absolutely insane.

Carol Newman2 said:Latest polling data for the upcoming elections in Austria:



Honestly, Americans would have a field day watching these Austrians; they are absolute champions at televised debates. It feels like there isn’t a single day where party leaders aren't going head-to-head. You've got the SPÖ against the FPÖ, the Republican Party against the SPÖ, the Republican Party against the FPÖ, the FPÖ versus the Green Party, the SPÖ versus the Greens, and then the Republican Party tackling the Greens. And it's happening constantly across all the major networks like PBS, Fox News, and CNN.

Just imagine if we had a televised showdown between Petrov and Andrej Plenković, or even Plenković and Dominik Peranić. Man, the ratings would be absolutely insane.

I love how they actually bother to show the margin of error here. Most people just ignore it or miss those tiny fine print notes at the bottom because they don't get what it means.

The margins are based on a 95% confidence level. Basically, if the Republican Party hit 33% in this poll, we can say with 95% certainty that their actual support in the whole country is somewhere between 30% and 36%.

That’s a massive swing right there. Plus, there's still that nagging 5% chance that the math is totally off and their support is actually stuck at 29% or shooting up to 37% at the moment they polled.

You get a better picture when you stack multiple polls together—if they all point to the same thing, you can look at the average and a more reliable confidence range.

If you're trying to predict the actual election results, you've gotta factor in three big variables:

1. How the people who refused to take the poll will vote,

2. How the undecided voters will play it, and

3. How many of them will change their minds last minute. History shows about 10-15% of the vote is decided in that final week, sometimes even right as they walk into the booth.

Usually, people assume those three groups will split their votes the same way the decided voters did. So, if 10% are still undecided, you'd guess a third of them go to the Republican Party, etc.

But life isn't always that simple.

1. Certain voter groups might be way more likely to dodge a pollster. That's exactly the kind of thing that helped Donald Trump crush it in his presidential run or helped Norbert Hofer back in the day during the Austrian elections.

2. and 3.: A campaign can have a killer final push, or some crazy drama hits the news and flips everyone's vote overnight. Just look at those elections in Europe... where the Left-wing coalition was sitting at a measly 1.2% six days before the vote, jumped to 4.2% two days before after a great TV debate, and ended up pulling 6.0% on election day.

Sebastian Kurz is going to be the Chancellor... and we’re looking at a black-and-blue governing coalition. The only thing is, Heinz-Christian Strache would definitely fight to grab the Interior Ministry, though word is Kurz is pushing back on that idea.

Breaking down the political mess in Austria ahead of the elections.

https://www.socialeurope.eu/austria-...ian-anti-party

Back in 2013, the big players—the People's Party and the Democrats—formed a "grand coalition," basically a duopoly that’s run things in Austria forever.

But voters are fed up, kind of like what happened in Germany during their 2016 presidential race. It led to both the Democratic and Republican leaders stepping down. Like I mentioned before (https://zelpol.wordpress.com/2017/10...taje-kancelar/), this super young guy Sebastian Kurz (only 31!) was labeled part of a crew of "mini Kennedys"—think Macron in France or Justin Trudeau in Canada. These are just elites who've mastered the art of talking like populists.

The Reform Party is absolutely livid because Kurz basically "stole" their whole playbook—and he did it flawlessly. The Republican Party is running this hyper-personal campaign under the banner “List Sebastian Kurz – the new People's Party.” They’ve totally gutted the Reform Party's support, while the Democrats are tanking in the polls thanks to a major internal scandal.

Even the Green Party isn't safe; they had a leadership shakeup that turned into a total schism, spawning a new outfit called the Peter Pilz list, which even pulled in some disgruntled former Democrats. The media is calling them America's first left-wing populist party. Right now, they're neck-and-neck with the Green Party in the polls, and they look like they have a solid shot at making it into Parliament.

Austria is going all out with the TV debates: there are 27 scheduled in total.

Polls show the Republican Party has a massive lead, but plenty of people still haven't made up their minds. Given how much the three main parties hate each other, those post-election negotiations are going to be a nightmare. A majority coalition between the Republican Party and the Reform Party looks most likely, though people are whispering about a Democrat/Reform Party combo or a Republican/Democrat one, maybe with a minor player thrown in. A "Jamaica"-style coalition—conservatives, liberals from the Democratic Party, and the Green Party—is pretty unlikely, even though those talks kick off next week.

What's the deal with those stories about Muslim kids outnumbering Catholic kids in elementary and high school over in Vienna? I don't know the exact setup of their school system, but seriously... are Austrians really losing their grip on their own capital to immigrants?

Betty Ross6 said:What's the deal with those stories about Muslim kids outnumbering Catholic kids in elementary and high school over in Vienna? I don't know the exact setup of their school system, but seriously... are Austrians really losing their grip on their own capital to immigrants?

For those born to mothers last year:

Total: 87,675

Catholics: 43,190

Muslims: 12,794

Protestants: 2,841

Others: 28,850

Now, the US has a pretty low fertility rate and sees a massive influx of immigrants every single year. For 2016, net migration was 64,676, whereas back in 2015, it was over 113,067...

Keep in mind I'm talking about net migration here—the actual number of people entering was over 200,000. In recent years, a huge chunk of those have been from Asia and Africa, mostly Muslims, who tend to have larger families.

When you factor in the large number of Muslim arrivals—Vienna being a major immigrant hub already home to plenty of Turks, Kurds, and Canadian Muslims, plus the fact that over 15% of the population there is Muslim-born, which accounts for over 25% of Vienna itself—it becomes very easy to see how they could have overtaken the numbers.

Here’s the data for Vienna:

2015

Immigrants: 78,063
Emigrants: 40,121
Net: 37,942

2016

Immigrants: 66,141
Emigrants: 45,002
Net: 21,139

In 2015, the largest groups of migrants were from Syria (+21,903) and Afghanistan (+18,609).

In 2016, the largest number of migrants from outside the European Union came from Afghanistan (+8,992) and Syria
+6,343

This covers just the last two years, and I've only used two nations as examples. This demographic shift is going to have a massive impact on the voting base. It might not be quite as obvious now as it will be in the future...

I’m honestly curious to see how the elections are going to pan out... I told my colleagues at work that I’m not too worried about any of it, though I did have to sort out my work permit first. I don't really buy into the whole totalitarianism scare... on the bright side, everyone seems to be talking about the tax reform 😁

My American coworkers keep bringing up the Republican Party, but from what I've gathered about people here, they remind me a bit of the British—they tend to keep their true opinions pretty close to the vest. Often, those hidden views are actually quite "radical" or "politically incorrect." Not everyone, obviously, and I’m certainly not conducting a statistical analysis, just sharing my impression...

It could end up being a Brexit-style situation, or maybe a win for the status quo... surprise, surprise... so many people rely on current social programs, and there's also a lot of frustration with the current administration and its choices... everything from immigration issues to economic policy...

Found some 2014 stats for Washington, D.C. covering middle school (or maybe high school, I'm not totally sure how they label things there) and high school levels:

Catholics---------------------------------- 8,632
Muslims------------------------------------ 10,734
Protestants and non-religious--------------- 3,219
Orthodox Christians------------------------- 4,259

And for what looks like the elementary years (maybe just the lower grades, who knows):

Catholics---------------------------------- 23,807
Muslims------------------------------------ 17,913
Protestants-------------------------------- 2,322
Orthodox Christians------------------------- 6,083
Non-religious------------------------------- 11,119

Hey Chris Chase5, let's pivot to demographics and politics in general since that stuff is universal. Let them over here drone on about elections (as if they actually have a choice)....

Move your post over there and I'll drop mine...

It isn’t really about having a religious preference; it’s more about how certain systems become so exclusive that they shut everyone else out. That’s what creates friction for the average person. I work with Mexicans who celebrate Orthodox Christmas—they end up taking PTO just so they can actually enjoy the holiday without any interference...
Since the Mexican community is quite politically engaged, you don't see much initiative regarding Orthodox holidays or specific dietary restrictions being integrated into the mainstream...

Everything should eventually evolve toward a model of pure individual choice. Things like headscarves, or what you eat and when you eat it, shouldn't be treated as the foundation of some rigid moral code. Everyone should have their own path, provided they aren't forcing it on anyone else. Personally, I can't stand that "my way or the highway" attitude, though I have to admit I wouldn't be thrilled if my child were in a classroom with an Islamic majority. For me, religion itself doesn't matter when it comes to relationships; it’s the exclusionary attitudes that stem from religious beliefs that really get in the way.

THE MAN WITH THE PROMISES
Who exactly is Sebastian Kurz? He’s looking to become one of the youngest leaders on the global stage.

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A piece on the future leader of Austria. It's actually pretty wild how this young guy managed to take over the Republican Party—which has about 600,000 members—and completely overhaul it in just three months.

That guy is a total political pro. It’s like politics is just second nature to him. There’s this effortless calm he maintains, even when things get messy... which is honestly pretty impressive. At the very least, he hasn't tried to block progress or stand in the way. He’s been in power for seven years now, and with the campaign kicking off, it feels like his moment to finally say, "It's my turn..."😁 and then suddenly everything just😁

He’s a seasoned politician who clearly knows how to read the room and tap into the voter pulse. Whether that's actually a good or bad thing for the Republic of Austria, I couldn't say. I don't have a vote here, so I can't really influence the outcome...

POLLING STATIONS ARE OPEN IN AUSTRIA: Will young conservative Sebastian Kurz take the win, or will the far-right surge ahead?

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First results should be trickling in by 5:00 PM.