Gold: Past, Present, and Future

quiettrucker12 said:For instance, nobody talks about the miners, even though they’re easily the most interesting part of this whole thing. You could write something about them, but why bother? It's much easier to just drop a critical post without adding anything useful to the conversation.

By the way, those 2014/2015 figures aren't mid-range forecasts; everything is relative, so even those can turn into short-term data before you know it. Lately, looking at comments like these, I'm starting to feel like posting here is just a massive waste of time, especially once you factor in the input from Silver Argentum and M. Kovac.🙄

Go ahead then, write your little essay on miners. I'm sure someone out there will be dying to read it. 😉

quiettrucker12 said:True enough. But you seem to have this weird compulsion to nitpick how I write, while I don't bother touching yours (honestly, the only thing I consistently call out here is the constant "zero-effort" posts).

Fair point. My bad on that one.
I'll watch it going forward.

(Not gonna dig into the reasons why, just so I don't dilute the apology)

hollowmoose21 said:Go ahead then, write your little essay on miners. I'm sure someone out there will be dying to read it. 😉

I’ve dropped several deep dives on this before, but honestly, it feels like I'm shouting into a void. Aside from a few folks here who actually know their stuff, most of the "gold bug" crowd seems obsessed with mining stocks rather than the actual metal. It really makes you wonder if the gold bull run is already running on fumes.

Since the mods are actually hanging around, I think it’d be nice to address the guy who decided to openly call Charles an idiot the other day. I'm not exactly sure what the rulebook says about this kind of thing, but honestly, it feels pretty toxic for a community like ours.

neondriver5 said:Honestly, this is one of the biggest loads of nonsense in this entire thread. People keep talking about "preserved value." Preserved value of what? If that "value" has to be converted back into paper currency just for it to mean anything, then what's the point? What can you actually do with that value if it’s just sitting there under a mattress? How is it even useful?

Value, my foot. Its value fluctuates on the stock market every single day. Even if it used to represent something tangible, today it has absolutely nothing to do with any kind of real-world worth.

I’m genuinely curious: how many people holding physical gold—or especially those holding paper gold—would actually keep it if its loyalty started dropping by 10%, then 20%, then 30%, then 40%, until it finally tanked to 90% of its current value?
Just a little thought on this so-called "value."

Take a gold coin or a silver piece from, say, the 17th century and compare it to any banknote from that era (assuming it even survived) and try to view the concept of value through that lens.
What happens when that paper collapses, just like every piece of paper has collapsed throughout history? Where would you rather have the fruits of your labor, your knowledge, and your hard work stored: in paper, or in metal?

nimblepanther18 said:Even when masimo1 tried to come back, certain forum members chased him off (though I really hope he returns). Mizuzul drops in occasionally, and I haven't seen "indijanca" around lately either..

I'm here...😂

just lurking and reading you all instead of posting...😁

I am currently debating Goldman Sachs and their forecasts:

What should we make of this Goldman Sachs analysis? It’s all very well-written, but the question remains—how realistic is any of it?

The truth is, the global economic landscape is quite grim and prone to further deterioration.

Let's take a closer look at the state of the world economy.

Japan is in a recession, the United Kingdom is stuck in a triple dip, and the European Union hasn't managed to resolve a single one of its issues—even in Germany, industrial production is falling (the Federal Reserve actually signaled a recession back in 2013), while China shows growth, though even they face massive hurdles: poor bank placements, a real estate bubble, weak domestic consumption (Chinese oil demand growth is estimated at only 3.4%—strange, considering their supposed GDP growth of 7-9%), export struggles, stalling foreign investment, and a slowdown in capital inflows...

That leaves us with the USA. They claim a solid growth rate of 2-3%, but we have to note that this is a nominal rate; there isn't actually any real growth happening.

To elaborate, let's look at the granular data: Small business owners—the primary drivers of job creation—are pessimistic, and activity has dropped to its lowest level since 2008. This is driven entirely by uncertainty regarding the business climate—tax hikes, regulation, and potential instability surrounding budget cuts and fiscal policy.

On the other hand, rail freight in the USA is declining, and food stamp recipients have increased by a million in just the last two months. This doesn't exactly look like a genuine recovery.

Ultimately, the situation provides little foundation for the optimism being peddled by Goldman Sachs analysts regarding the recovery of the American and global economies.

What really fails to hold water, however, is the rise in interest rates—specifically the shift from real negative rates to real positive ones.

Undoubtedly, this would lead to decreased interest in buying gold; yet, given the Federal Reserve's policies regarding the IRS and FBI, which Bernanke explained several times as necessary, the question is whether this can be achieved without collapsing the budget.

Such a scenario would make it nearly impossible for overleveraged nations—like Japan, the USA, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and others—to service their debts...

Of course, one could also view Goldman Sachs' narrative through the lens of their proverbial "upside-down chicken" approach, where they constantly lure clients into behaviors contrary to their own best interests just to maximize their own profits—a legend that has long circulated 😍 throughout the capital markets.

The bombshell Goldman Sachs just dropped isn't actually anything new; it’s just a more dramatic way of presenting the scenarios we've already been dissecting in this thread. I guess the theatrical delivery is just a nudge to get us questioning their underlying motives.

dustyheron5 said:I'm here...😂

just lurking and reading you all instead of posting...😁

I am currently debating Goldman Sachs and their forecasts:

What should we make of this Goldman Sachs analysis? It’s all very well-written, but the question remains—how realistic is any of it?

The truth is, the global economic landscape is quite grim and prone to further deterioration.

Let's take a closer look at the state of the world economy.

Japan is in a recession, the United Kingdom is stuck in a triple dip, and the European Union hasn't managed to resolve a single one of its issues—even in Germany, industrial production is falling (the Federal Reserve actually signaled a recession back in 2013), while China shows growth, though even they face massive hurdles: poor bank placements, a real estate bubble, weak domestic consumption (Chinese oil demand growth is estimated at only 3.4%—strange, considering their supposed GDP growth of 7-9%), export struggles, stalling foreign investment, and a slowdown in capital inflows...

That leaves us with the USA. They claim a solid growth rate of 2-3%, but we have to note that this is a nominal rate; there isn't actually any real growth happening.

To elaborate, let's look at the granular data: Small business owners—the primary drivers of job creation—are pessimistic, and activity has dropped to its lowest level since 2008. This is driven entirely by uncertainty regarding the business climate—tax hikes, regulation, and potential instability surrounding budget cuts and fiscal policy.

On the other hand, rail freight in the USA is declining, and food stamp recipients have increased by a million in just the last two months. This doesn't exactly look like a genuine recovery.

Ultimately, the situation provides little foundation for the optimism being peddled by Goldman Sachs analysts regarding the recovery of the American and global economies.

What really fails to hold water, however, is the rise in interest rates—specifically the shift from real negative rates to real positive ones.

Undoubtedly, this would lead to decreased interest in buying gold; yet, given the Federal Reserve's policies regarding the IRS and FBI, which Bernanke explained several times as necessary, the question is whether this can be achieved without collapsing the budget.

Such a scenario would make it nearly impossible for overleveraged nations—like Japan, the USA, the European Union, the United Kingdom, and others—to service their debts...

Of course, one could also view Goldman Sachs' narrative through the lens of their proverbial "upside-down chicken" approach, where they constantly lure clients into behaviors contrary to their own best interests just to maximize their own profits—a legend that has long circulated 😍 throughout the capital markets.

Down the road, odysseyinspace20?? suggests that if interest rates do eventually climb, it'll be a dead giveaway that velocity hasn't just picked up, but is basically screaming toward the other extreme.😁.

We just haven't pinned down the small detail: which year. 😁

One shouldn't overlook the long-standing policy of keeping rates low to prop up the economy. Maybe the only thing capable of breaking that trend is a worrying spike in inflation, where hiking rates becomes a necessary countermeasure.

When prices start climbing, it usually means there's money floating around. A lot of it. You can see it in how much industrial activity, retail, and general consumer spending have been picking up lately.

A question for Twitter/X: Is something like that even on the horizon? If not, why would they bother raising rates at all?

The answer pretty much tells you exactly what your move should be regarding gold.

Andrew Barrett4 said:The bombshell Goldman Sachs just dropped isn't actually anything new; it’s just a more dramatic way of presenting the scenarios we've already been dissecting in this thread. I guess the theatrical delivery is just a nudge to get us questioning their underlying motives.

Down the road, odysseyinspace20?? suggests that if interest rates do eventually climb, it'll be a dead giveaway that velocity hasn't just picked up, but is basically screaming toward the other extreme.😁.

We just haven't pinned down the small detail: which year. 😁

One shouldn't overlook the long-standing policy of keeping rates low to prop up the economy. Maybe the only thing capable of breaking that trend is a worrying spike in inflation, where hiking rates becomes a necessary countermeasure.

When prices start climbing, it usually means there's money floating around. A lot of it. You can see it in how much industrial activity, retail, and general consumer spending have been picking up lately.

A question for Twitter/X: Is something like that even on the horizon? If not, why would they bother raising rates at all?

The answer pretty much tells you exactly what your move should be regarding gold.

Maybe the more important question—if not the most important—is this: are we looking at another slowdown in 'a, b, c, d, and everything else' similar to what happened back in 2008?
In other words—where are we currently headed: toward a collapse or a recovery?

If we don't see a further slowdown, there are two scenarios:

1) Whoever already owns gold knows what to do with it.
2) Whoever still doesn't own it knows what to do with it.

If we do see a slowdown, the choice is crystal clear.

Technically, this borders on trading talk, focusing on entry/exit strategies and targets. Personally, I think we're sitting in no man's land right now. Neither buying nor selling. Just sit tight and wait (whether you're in or out).

PS.
I'm using negative logic here on purpose, given how precious metals work: they're our hedge for when everything else doesn't work out.

quiettrucker12 said:We’re sitting right here at 1709. If things hold steady, we might actually break 1720.

More like buying it more expensive... seriously, go back and read the last five or six pages of this thread.

quiettrucker12 said:Usually, this kind of weakness right before an FOMC meeting is actually a good sign.

So you get all worked up when I mess with you, yet you’re over here dropping completely different forecasts within a two-hour window—it's wild. Every single one of your predictions comes with at least three different "if/then" scenarios attached to it. Honestly, what's even the point of that? And why act offended if someone calls you out on it? I’m done chiming in on this thread—it’s lost its spark and just doesn't make sense anymore. Everything has devolved into this endless ego trip about who's the better trader, debating pro vs. con theories, or diving into whatever ZH conspiracy rabbit hole we're down today. Real discussion only happens when guys like Francisco, Machiavelli, or some random buyer jumps in and we all start bickering over the list Charles laid out. Personally, I think this whole thread would actually be decent if it were just your forecasts and Charles deciding when to jump in or bail.
Hey everyone! 🙂

Melissa Sanchez17 said:So you get all worked up when I mess with you, yet you’re over here dropping completely different forecasts within a two-hour window—it's wild. Every single one of your predictions comes with at least three different "if/then" scenarios attached to it. Honestly, what's even the point of that? And why act offended if someone calls you out on it? I’m done chiming in on this thread—it’s lost its spark and just doesn't make sense anymore. Everything has devolved into this endless ego trip about who's the better trader, debating pro vs. con theories, or diving into whatever ZH conspiracy rabbit hole we're down today. Real discussion only happens when guys like Francisco, Machiavelli, or some random buyer jumps in and we all start bickering over the list Charles laid out. Personally, I think this whole thread would actually be decent if it were just your forecasts and Charles deciding when to jump in or bail.
Hey everyone! 🙂

That bit about the varying forecasts is wrong. Second, if things change, you change your mind—that's how it works. Third, nobody "called me out" for that; they called me out for other stuff.

I’ve been saying the same thing for ages. First, I called for a correction in Summer 2011, then I predicted a long consolidation. Your habit of hunting for mistakes in my posts just to be difficult is pure provocation. This whole "different forecasts within two hours" thing is a perfect example. Why don't you write your own stuff and just leave my posts alone?

lonehawk5 said:Silver at $32.91... adding more to my position

sold at $33.14 via mobile transfer. I'm out...

Just taking a quick breather from all this gold talk... let's chat about our domestic drillers for a second.
Since we don't have a massive auto industry here, I guess this nice little article won't hurt anyone's feelings or, heaven forbid, squeeze their profits.
The Homogenization of the Car by [Comparable US Author]
POZ-🙂

Hey goldbugs, is this stuff actually legit? $36667 😕

Unless they managed to save a handful... at that point, we’re just talking about a full-blown numismatic mania 🙂

It looks like some kind of hunter hidden in the tall grass... based on the photo, it almost reminds me of freshly melted, engraved gold. I’ll give you a thumbs up on the concept, though. If I recall correctly, it isn't illegal, provided the actual gold purity matches what's stated on the hallmark (whether it's 14k, 24k, or whatever)

quiettrucker12 said:We’re sitting right here at 1709. If things hold steady, we might actually break 1720.

More like buying it more expensive... seriously, go back and read the last five or six pages of this thread.

As of 3:44 PM today, it’s hit 1720.35 $.

At 8:15 PM, Bernanke (that little devil) said 😁...given how desperate the global economy looks right now, I’m expecting them to announce a legitimate QE3—since the last one was basically a fake—along with an expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Once that happens, everything goes up, except for the dollar.😉

Even if he just sticks to OMOs—basically just flooding the market—which, to be fair, he’s been pretty good at doing so far.😂

Policy announcement at 6:30 PM

dustyheron5 said:At 8:15 PM, Bernanke (that little devil) said 😁...given how desperate the global economy looks right now, I’m expecting them to announce a legitimate QE3—since the last one was basically a fake—along with an expansion of the Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Once that happens, everything goes up, except for the dollar.😉

Even if he just sticks to OMOs—basically just flooding the market—which, to be fair, he’s been pretty good at doing so far.😂

Just more endless jaw-jabbing without any actual expansion of the balance sheet. Maybe he'll throw out some fake "Operation Twist 2.0" nonsense just to make Barack Obama feel like something is actually happening. Look, the guy is a brilliant scientist. He knows exactly what he's doing—just look at Quantitative Easing. He isn't about to let the dollar tank during these final years of his term. Why would he? He doesn't want to run again, and he definitely doesn't want to be remembered as the guy who broke the greenback.

You’ve got it wrong, Francis—completely off base.......Bernanke made the call to ramp up intervention by purchasing $45 billion in US Treasury securities every month.......😉

Everything is heading up now, just as I predicted.......😍

http://www.businessinsider.com/fomc-...eeting-2012-12

Basically, he said the same thing he did regarding Quantitative Easing 3, and the balance sheet hasn't really moved much.

So, for now—I don't see any major news here.
The announcement fell flat, so now we just wait to see if they actually follow through with anything concrete.