Gold: Past, Present, and Future

Anthony Evans78 said:Maybe brush up on some basic math, specifically compound interest.
Try Googling "compound interest." You're really starting to show how little you actually get this. 🙂
I stick to silver because it's more affordable and I can pick up a few ounces whenever I want. I have no intention of swapping at 1:20; maybe I'll do it at 1:1, or maybe not at all. I might just use the silver to buy something productive.
You clearly don't have a clue. You don't understand inflation, you can't calculate interest, and frankly, you haven't contributed anything useful to this thread.

Fine, let's say inflation is 20% a year. That’s a safe bet if we're going by your logic (shadow inflation, right?). And what am I supposed to contribute when reading your posts? There's nothing to say. It's always the same stuff. Gold and silver have been money since the ancient Greeks.

You don't need silver to buy something productive. You can do that with paper money like US Dollars. 😍 If you ask me, I’d suggest buying a shovel and a rake instead.

analogharbor44 said:Fine, let's say inflation is 20% a year. That’s a safe bet if we're going by your logic (shadow inflation, right?). And what am I supposed to contribute when reading your posts? There's nothing to say. It's always the same stuff. Gold and silver have been money since the ancient Greeks.

You don't need silver to buy something productive. You can do that with paper money like US Dollars. 😍 If you ask me, I’d suggest buying a shovel and a rake instead.

So now we're just guessing at inflation rates? Like you're haggling at a flea market... "Oh, let's call it 20%... actually, make it 30%!" Where? Here? In the European Union? In the USA?
You look foolish because you don't understand compound interest, and then you look even worse in the next post by refusing to even try learning it. Sometimes it's better to just stay quiet so you don't broadcast how little you know.

shadow inflation
What kind of language is that?

quiettrucker12 said:Maybe you took me the wrong way. I think my point was pretty clear. You’re underselling gold when you call it an inflation hedge. It’s like saying a backhoe is just for digging little holes for petunias. Sure, you can use it for that, but you can also dig foundations for skyscrapers with it. Use the right scale.

I’ve said this a dozen times already: we’re looking at an asset sitting in the middle of a massive bull market. Once the hype hits its peak and things get overpriced, that value is going to bleed right into other assets—specifically blue-chip stocks that actually generate real value—regardless of what the dollar is doing.

Sure, traders manipulate the market from time to time—it happens everywhere, whether they're pumping it up or dumping it. That’s not up for debate. But that’s a far cry from the big picture we've seen from 2000 to now. I already laid out how things actually stand, and I did it without even factoring in fiat currency.

You’ve got to learn how to tell the difference between temporary market manipulation—whether they're pumping it or dumping it—and an actual, sustained bull market. One is a trap; the other is the real deal.

So you're comparing gold to stocks? Since when are stocks considered a "real" asset? At the end of the day, they're just pieces of paper or digital entries that can be multiplied in a heartbeat, devaluing everything in the process.

Anthony Evans78 said:So you're comparing gold to stocks? Since when are stocks considered a "real" asset? At the end of the day, they're just pieces of paper or digital entries that can be multiplied in a heartbeat, devaluing everything in the process.

Stocks... since when? They're one of the most fundamental asset classes out there. People work, they build things, and then you hold equity in those companies. That's what stocks are.

Historical cycles of gold vs. stock values

It’s pretty rich criticizing someone else's grammar when you're out here tripping over your own "since when."

So, I guess gold is basically riding this bull run just because people have this fanatic, almost religious obsession with its shine.
And you're telling me the price is being set by these goldbugs—these true believers—just eyeballing it honestly without any massive manipulation?
It’s got nothing to do with all that analog and digital money printing they’re doing right now just to keep the whole system from collapsing.
And eventually, I suppose all that bull market capital is just going to migrate over to Chinese labor.
Are you seriously saying the entire global elite—the industrialists, the intellectuals, the big finance guys—don't own a single ounce of gold, or they're trying to dump it all to reinvest in industry?

Let's look at this in black and white.
Like some kind of shaman trying to predict the future from where we're standing today.
Which one actually sounds better?
Some flimsy piece of paper backed by a Fed promise that it's worth something, or actual gold that isn't just an asset anymore, but is becoming this glowing, brilliant guarantee of value?

Maybe one day gold will actually justify all the insane amounts of fiat currency pumped into the system.
Look, sir, if you want to clear your credit, your debt is sitting at roughly $3.7 trillion... which is basically equal to 3 tons of 99.9% pure gold.
Uhm... yeah, yeah, yeah... hm... you don't have the dollars and you don't have the gold... so I guess Plan B is to spend the next 1,000 years printing $7.4 trillion out of thin air (since we need that $3.7 trillion in interest).
As for the factories... don't even worry about it, we've got Claire Inc. ready to go for like a buck per unit, and we'll throw in the labor for free (straight from North Korea).

If you ask me, my primary asset would be barley, and my secondary asset would be hops.
Respect.
😍

quiettrucker12 said:Stocks... since when? They're one of the most fundamental asset classes out there. People work, they build things, and then you hold equity in those companies. That's what stocks are.

Historical cycles of gold vs. stock values

It’s pretty rich criticizing someone else's grammar when you're out here tripping over your own "since when."

They aren't even worth their weight in gold.
For instance, I have an original single dollar bill from the Franz Joseph era back in 1915.
A few years ago, I picked up a Millennial stock certificate from 1936 at a flea market for five bucks—it had a face value of 10,000 old dollars back then.
Do I really need to go any further?
Ownership in companies? Please. For years now, stocks have been nothing more than speculative instruments. Only the people holding massive stakes actually have any say in how those firms are run.
In the case of the US Government and ExxonMobil, they don't even have that much control. 🙂
You're right, though. It's spelled "since."

Anthony Evans78 said:So now we're just guessing at inflation rates? Like you're haggling at a flea market... "Oh, let's call it 20%... actually, make it 30%!" Where? Here? In the European Union? In the USA?
You look foolish because you don't understand compound interest, and then you look even worse in the next post by refusing to even try learning it. Sometimes it's better to just stay quiet so you don't broadcast how little you know.

shadow inflation
What kind of language is that?

Look, I’ve already said it: calling people idiots or morons isn't okay on this forum. I'm pretty sure there are even rules against it. Since nobody is doing anything about it, I'm ending this discussion right here with you.
If you don't trust dollars, euros, any currency, stocks, bonds, or savings... if you won't touch oil or grain because you think they're being manipulated too... then hey, go ahead and just stack up your gold and silver and keep spamming those same old copy-paste posts right here. 👋

Look, technically you just made yourself look foolish, though I never actually called you stupid.
But I will say you're lying, twisting the facts, and haven't contributed a single useful thing to this conversation.

Anthony Evans78 said:They aren't even worth their weight in gold.
For instance, I have an original single dollar bill from the Franz Joseph era back in 1915.
A few years ago, I picked up a Millennial stock certificate from 1936 at a flea market for five bucks—it had a face value of 10,000 old dollars back then.
Do I really need to go any further?
Ownership in companies? Please. For years now, stocks have been nothing more than speculative instruments. Only the people holding massive stakes actually have any say in how those firms are run.
In the case of the US Government and ExxonMobil, they don't even have that much control. 🙂
You're right, though. It's spelled "since."

My bad, "since" works, but I still think it was a bit harsh to talk to our colleague like that regarding the shadow.

We've been stuck in this phase where stocks are problematic for years, but eventually, we'll hit that second stage shown on the graph where gold and stocks swap roles. At some point, gold will stretch too far, and capital will flow right back into equities.

Come on, guys...
Be cool, please...

I mean, we really don't need them letting that golden girl loose on us, I guess.
🙂

quiettrucker12 said:My bad, "since" works, but I still think it was a bit harsh to talk to our colleague like that regarding the shadow.

We've been stuck in this phase where stocks are problematic for years, but eventually, we'll hit that second stage shown on the graph where gold and stocks swap roles. At some point, gold will stretch too far, and capital will flow right back into equities.

But when does that actually happen?
When are we ever going to resolve all these issues we've been debating endlessly here?
At this point, the whole game is about preserving what you have rather than growing it. If growth were the goal, banks and major corporations would actually be investing instead of sitting on trillions of dollars.

Anthony Evans78 said:But when does that actually happen?
When are we ever going to resolve all these issues we've been debating endlessly here?
At this point, the whole game is about preserving what you have rather than growing it. If growth were the goal, banks and major corporations would actually be investing instead of sitting on trillions of dollars.

Not for years. Not until gold hits at least a 1:1 ratio against the dollar—actually, probably much more than that.

Let’s not overcomplicate this. Can we just agree on the following summary:
- We're staring down a massive influx of liquidity. Between QE4 and the Federal Reserve printing money to bail out government debt and "stabilize" the big banks, the floodgates are open.
- The economy is essentially being suffocated; unemployment remains high and manufacturing is lagging significantly.
- Ever since the turn of the millennium, the stock market hasn't matched the kind of performance we saw during those golden fifty years prior.
- Gold is keeping pace with the expanding money supply, while silver generally follows its lead.
- There's a very real chance silver could see a major price spike once it starts running thin as an industrial metal.

Ashley Thompson10 said:Let’s not overcomplicate this. Can we just agree on the following summary:
- We're staring down a massive influx of liquidity. Between QE4 and the Federal Reserve printing money to bail out government debt and "stabilize" the big banks, the floodgates are open.
- The economy is essentially being suffocated; unemployment remains high and manufacturing is lagging significantly.
- Ever since the turn of the millennium, the stock market hasn't matched the kind of performance we saw during those golden fifty years prior.
- Gold is keeping pace with the expanding money supply, while silver generally follows its lead.
- There's a very real chance silver could see a major price spike once it starts running thin as an industrial metal.

Spot on.
Just don't forget:
- The demographic factor.

Anthony Evans78 said:It’s not just my opinion; it’s backed by thousands of years of history. Then again, I suppose a day trader's brain struggles to see past next Tuesday, let alone a full year.
And what exactly counts as saving? Bonds? US dollars? Old German marks? Oops... those don't exist anymore either. Show me any form of savings better than gold and silver—something that isn't being devalued by governments and banks, something that won't rot, stays liquid, and has actually worked for millennia—and I'll happily switch over.
Like most trolls, I'd suggest you learn the difference between "money" and "currency," or even "saving" versus "investing." You clearly haven't even mastered basic concepts like inflation yet, so you still have a lot to learn.

Show me any definition of "savings" anywhere in the world that allows an asset to spike 100% and then crater by 50% within a single year.
Savings my ass.

You aren't saving; you're just waiting for Judgment Day. In other words, this isn't finance, it's religious fanaticism.
And your posts are exactly the same way.

quiettrucker12 said:Like I said, it's not exactly okay to call people idiots or morons on this forum. I'm pretty sure there are rules against it. Since nobody is doing anything about it, I'm ending this discussion with you.

I told him that a long time ago, but the guy is just plain rude.

quiettrucker12 said:My bad, "since" works, but I still think it was a bit harsh to talk to our colleague like that regarding the shadow.

We've been stuck in this phase where stocks are problematic for years, but eventually, we'll hit that second stage shown on the graph where gold and stocks swap roles. At some point, gold will stretch too far, and capital will flow right back into equities.

Maybe you can write "since," but "daytraderly" isn't a word. And don't even get me started on his "contributions" or how he "distorts facts."
Since you want to be the grammar police, why don't you go ahead? 🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:Gold has always been—and will always be—at least a hedge against inflation. History proves it every single time, and we're seeing it happen right now.
As for your other point, your premise is flawed from the jump. Which Commodities are we talking about? You can't just lump them all into one basket using some arbitrary index.
Besides, that doesn't mean gold isn't being manipulated. Gold is climbing because of the endless printing of fiat currency...

History shows plenty of things:
http://goldratefortoday.org/gold-inf...p-correlation/

Everything changes... except for the one constant thing in life: the urge for idiots to try and proofread someone else's work. ☕

So, I guess even gold can't actually keep pace with this runaway inflation we're seeing?
Like, we're talking about the same gold that's supposedly worth five times more than the whole wheat-copper-zinc supply chain?
🙂

Dennis Myers6 said:So, I guess even gold can't actually keep pace with this runaway inflation we're seeing?
Like, we're talking about the same gold that's supposedly worth five times more than the whole wheat-copper-zinc supply chain?
🙂

What are we even talking about here? Are we discussing inflation hedges or just riding some insane bull market?

Drug dealing nets you a few hundred percent return, which more than covers inflation. You gonna conclude that peddling drugs is a hedge against inflation now?

Dennis Myers6 said:So, I guess even gold can't actually keep pace with this runaway inflation we're seeing?
Like, we're talking about the same gold that's supposedly worth five times more than the whole wheat-copper-zinc supply chain?
🙂

If I'm not mistaken, the whole point of saving isn't necessarily to outrun inflation. That would be nice, sure, but that's not really the objective here.

But wait, who actually said gold was a savings vehicle... hmmm.

I have to admit, some of the posts on this forum feel less like objective analysis and more like religious dogma or cultish chanting, much like what I've noticed before.
Gold is just as speculative as any stock—anyone who doesn't see that (and I'm talking about 2012 and beyond, not the Stone Age) simply isn't participating in the conversation.
The fundamental nature of gold is speculative. At least behind a stock, there's an actual company that might succeed or fail, execute acquisitions, or leverage its R&D department to launch a groundbreaking product the market will snap up... (just to be clear, I'm not a big proponent of stocks myself; I don't own a single one at the moment).

PS
Given all that, I'm a little... unnerved by what Goldman Sachs said regarding gold prices dropping in 2013. When they make calls like that, it genuinely makes me nervous.

Because if they're right, the exact opposite might happen. What do they know that we don't? Why is the outlook so bleak?

vividgull10 said:If you ask me, this whole thing boils down to a few basic fallacies:

- If inflation were just a simple equation where Federal Reserve printing > inflation = sky-high prices — everyone would be rich.
- If precious metals worked on the logic that inflation spikes > gold must moon — everyone would be rich.
- (Combining 1 and 2) If metals followed the logic that Federal Reserve prints > gold must moon — everyone would be rich.

Obviously, not everyone is rich. There’s a pretty clear correlation between what you know, how informed you are, solid risk management, and your actual bank balance.

The point is... the internet is flooded with characters who take things people study for years and reduce them to oversimplified sentences. I’m no trained economist, but I know enough to realize that any complex system is called "complex" for a reason. Consequently, there’s a reason anyone can start a YouTube channel, but not everyone gets a PhD.

The point being > it means nothing to me if someone happens to be right once in an indefinite period of time. That’s useless. It’s useless because it ignores the most elementary postulates of risk management. More specifically, it ignores risk management itself.

None of this is meant to imply I have all the answers. All I have is a pile of questions and a few stray ideas. For me, that's plenty. I learned long ago that staying disciplined is key—if you don't chase the hype, the profit usually finds you.

Look, my friend, I’d suggest heading down to JP Morgan... they have the best risk management teams in the world... and they'll give you some top-tier advice...😂

For instance, you could always buy some Coca-Cola bonds... or maybe look into Exelon... or even put more capital into Ingram.😁