Gold: Past, Present, and Future

$1,450 for an ounce... we’re only $20 away from ATH...😉

dustyheron5 said:$1,450 for an ounce... we’re only $20 away from ATH...😉

So, did you pull the trigger on everything you planned to buy?

quiettrucker12 said:So, did you pull the trigger on everything you planned to buy?

I did—finished most of it earlier this week.😉
I might still grab a few more shares in energy—specifically something in the oil and gas sector.

dustyheron5 said:I did—finished most of it earlier this week.😉
I might still grab a few more shares in energy—specifically something in the oil and gas sector.

Mining stocks didn't even blink at this recent market volatility. It’s a perfect case study in why you have to view mining stocks through a completely different lens than the rest of the market—even if these broad corrections usually drag them down eventually. Once the S&P 500 finally hits rock bottom, the miners will... 🙂 I can’t remember the last time we saw a setup quite like this. We had something similar back in May, but things weren't nearly this stable—if you can even call this world "stable." Back then, everyone was emotionally fried from the constant doom-and-gloom propaganda (even here on the forums) claiming the bull market was dead and buried. I remember you were buying, I was buying... but now? Everything feels clearer. Anything could happen, sure, but right now, the pieces are falling perfectly into place. We saw massive buying on the dips in SPY yesterday (that's the S&P 500 tracker for the uninitiated, much like how GDX tracks the mining sector), and today is looking even stronger if you factor in the QQQ. We'll just have to see if Asia pushes gold toward 1750 overnight, or if we're stuck waiting until Monday or Tuesday.

Precious metals are acting completely differently than the broader stock market right now.

The mining index.

Stock index.

I honestly think a ton of people could actually afford to pick up a single Jan 2014 call option—an American option—on GDX for pretty damn little. $833Look, if you’ve got an extra $5k or $6k burning a hole in your pocket, who cares? If you’re already buying gold, you clearly have the cash to spare for a play that looks a hell of a lot more promising than when we were all chasing random stocks on the NYSE back in 2007. Options are risky as hell. You should only touch them with money you're actually willing to set on fire. I'm not giving anyone financial advice here—just pointing out that you don't need a massive bankroll to ride a bull market. That $5,000 is basically just what most people blow on a single weekend trip to Aspen. A few people could probably skip one ski trip and put it toward this instead. The bottom line? Options let you control a huge chunk of shares for a relatively small amount of capital. The best part is you can't lose more than what you put in. For example... $833 x 6 km = $5000The biggest loss you can take is that. $5000The potential upside is massive.

Great breakdown, colleague—really solid overview of the current situation. I’m hoping things play out exactly like this, as I find myself in total agreement with your assessment.
I pulled the trigger today and bought ERF at $13.01, just like I mentioned yesterday... so, it's done.
Now, I'll just grab some popcorn and keep a close eye on things.

A little bit of sunshine to brighten up this dreary Friday—just enough to get us actually looking forward to something for once 😛

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nDr8v...ayer_embedded#!

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=nGXDqV3RPNA

dustyheron5 said:Great breakdown, colleague—really solid overview of the current situation. I’m hoping things play out exactly like this, as I find myself in total agreement with your assessment.
I pulled the trigger today and bought ERF at $13.01, just like I mentioned yesterday... so, it's done.
Now, I'll just grab some popcorn and keep a close eye on things.

What's that saying? "Hope springs eternal"? 😉
DXY shot past 81, and looks like Ben Shapiro totally played us with QE3:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...centtrends.htm :klap:

Patrick Moore3 said:What's that saying? "Hope springs eternal"? 😉
DXY shot past 81, and looks like Ben Shapiro totally played us with QE3:
http://www.federalreserve.gov/moneta...centtrends.htm :klap:

It’s hard for him to screw me over when I’m sitting on my dollar reserves......😉

plus, I’ve locked in enough gains this year......😍

Anyway, now that the presidential election is behind us, we can finally focus on the fiscal cliff, spending cuts, and the debt ceiling😍......there’s always a reason for metals to rally....

dustyheron5 said:It’s hard for him to screw me over when I’m sitting on my dollar reserves......😉

plus, I’ve locked in enough gains this year......😍

Anyway, now that the presidential election is behind us, we can finally focus on the fiscal cliff, spending cuts, and the debt ceiling😍......there’s always a reason for metals to rally....

those used to be actual drivers... nowadays metals just dance along with the rest of Wall Street... 😢
and don't get too hung up on the debt ceiling either... Congress will probably bump that limit to 18 or 19 trillion US Dollars and we'll just keep riding the same old wave for another year or two😉

Patrick Moore3 said:those used to be actual drivers... nowadays metals just dance along with the rest of Wall Street... 😢
and don't get too hung up on the debt ceiling either... Congress will probably bump that limit to 18 or 19 trillion US Dollars and we'll just keep riding the same old wave for another year or two😉

You think they’re about to tank? From what I can see, gold has been climbing since the 5th while stocks have been sliding. We'll hit that sweet spot eventually where stocks drop and gold climbs, but the S&P has to hit the ceiling before it starts falling.

Patrick Moore3 said:those used to be actual drivers... nowadays metals just dance along with the rest of Wall Street... 😢
and don't get too hung up on the debt ceiling either... Congress will probably bump that limit to 18 or 19 trillion US Dollars and we'll just keep riding the same old wave for another year or two😉

So where's the actual issue? It's all in the sentiment. Is everything feeling this way because the S&P is bottoming out? What else would a bottom look like if not this?

We just touched that expected 1370 level on the S&P 500. Let's see Monday if that was the floor or if we're heading even lower.

Patrick Moore3

Patrick Moore3 said:those used to be actual drivers... nowadays metals just dance along with the rest of Wall Street... 😢
and don't get too hung up on the debt ceiling either... Congress will probably bump that limit to 18 or 19 trillion US Dollars and we'll just keep riding the same old wave for another year or two😉

You’re right—metals tend to dance in lockstep with everything else, and they have for decades. At the end of the day, it always comes down to one thing: timing. Knowing exactly when to get in and when to get out is everything. 😉

If you look at the last five years—it’s pretty clear—metals have been performing significantly better.😍 Look, if you want to talk about the stock market—and I mean actually talk about it, rather than just tossing around empty rhetoric—you need to look at the data. Here is a quick chart to get us started. Take a look. 😂

http://static.alsosprachanalyst.com/...age_thumb1.png

Keep in mind—that comparison dates all the way back to August 9, 2012. Since then, both gold and silver have continued their upward climb—gold moving from $1,620 to $1,730, while silver climbed from $28.13 to $32.57.

Regarding the debt ceiling—I think you’re missing the mark here. Once they actually raise it... well, just like you mentioned... that becomes yet another catalyst for metal prices to climb. That is exactly the point.

What’s your take on the upcoming Basel III accord?

Word on the street is they might actually allow gold to be integrated into the global financial system as collateral—and I mean *real* collateral, equal to any other financial instrument. We're talking full nominal value, not just that pathetic 50% haircut we've been forced to accept under current practices.

That might push gold prices even higher.

As far as the banks go: just don't panic...!!! 🤣 🤣
But honestly, people have every reason to panic. When you factor in the exposure to pigs, this whole "gold mismatch" given the current era we’re living in acts as a destabilizing force that I think gets glossed over way too often.

Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

dustyheron5 said:Patrick Moore3

You’re right—metals tend to dance in lockstep with everything else, and they have for decades. At the end of the day, it always comes down to one thing: timing. Knowing exactly when to get in and when to get out is everything. 😉

If you look at the last five years—it’s pretty clear—metals have been performing significantly better.😍 Look, if you want to talk about the stock market—and I mean actually talk about it, rather than just tossing around empty rhetoric—you need to look at the data. Here is a quick chart to get us started. Take a look. 😂

http://static.alsosprachanalyst.com/...age_thumb1.png

Keep in mind—that comparison dates all the way back to August 9, 2012. Since then, both gold and silver have continued their upward climb—gold moving from $1,620 to $1,730, while silver climbed from $28.13 to $32.57.

Regarding the debt ceiling—I think you’re missing the mark here. Once they actually raise it... well, just like you mentioned... that becomes yet another catalyst for metal prices to climb. That is exactly the point.

Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

It’s pretty naive to still think gold is in a bubble.

Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

Since we're talking about the same thing, I'll just answer your questions right in your own post... Sorry to break it to you, but Ben hasn't done a damn thing.

Quote : Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

Man, there were days when an 81 felt like a total fluke. An 82? Forget about it, impossible. And 84? That was straight-up science fiction.

Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

Look, QE3 didn't actually happen. Seriously. Just take a look at the Federal Reserve's balance sheet—they haven't bought a damn thing.
Check this out. Just digging through some recent data from the Federal Reserve. Really makes you think about where we're heading. Any thoughts?

Patrick Moore3

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

So, what now? Since Quantitative Easing 3 never actually happened... are the doomsday preppers right? Are we staring down the barrel of deflation and mass bankruptcies?

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

To me, this looks like an attempt to prop up the indices ahead of the elections. They're trying to dodge a repeat of the 2008 nightmare. How else do you explain the talk about Quantitative Easing 3? Just the mere whisper of it triggers such a massive psychological reaction.

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

I'd love to see you guys make some money... but I'm worried none of this will pan out.
Feels like something ugly is brewing just over the horizon...

Patrick Moore3 said:Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

I took a look back at September 15, 2011. You definitely wrote that back then, but you also included this in the exact same post:

Patrick Moore3 said:Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

Gold was all over the place that day, swinging between $1,760 and $1,820.

Since we’re digging up the archives anyway, I found my old post from five days later—September 20, 2011. It was a Saturday. On Friday the 19th, gold was bouncing between $1,770 and $1,810. We hadn't hit the crash yet, and prices were basically holding steady right where they are now. This one feels more accurate:

quiettrucker12 said:Right now, the only real headache comes from the tug-of-war between the S&P 500 and the US Dollar. They’re feeding off each other. Since the Euro is currently driving the strength of the Dollar, you could argue the real issue lies with stock prices and the Euro situation. Honestly, I’m not even sweating the Dollar much right now; I think Ben did exactly what he needed to do. As for gold, it all boils down to the S&P 500 and this supposed "crash" everyone is screaming about. Those crashes are incredibly rare, and if you ask me, the odds are slim. If the S&P 500 sees a correction over the next couple of days (or if it already happened last Friday), gold is going to rocket upward. That’s just how the math works, and frankly, it's the most likely scenario. A total stock market meltdown would probably drag gold up too, mainly because the Dollar would spike (>84). There's a decent chance the Dollar peaked on Friday, just like stocks hit their floor. Gold is basically just waiting for the bottom in equities to start its violent move up. It's hard to imagine a market crash happening right after they kicked off new Quantitative Easing—which, let's be real, is mostly useless anyway—specifically to prevent another 2008-style disaster. The doomsday prophets know this, so they play their trump card: praying Ben stops or delays this new QE. I find that hard to swallow. That would be a massive 180-degree policy pivot. Doing that would trigger deflation, bankruptcies, and naturally, a stock market crash. It seems unlikely the Federal Reserve would pull a stunt like that when they only need to give the market a tiny nudge downward to make it collapse. My take? Everything stays the course. Either the S&P finished its correction on Friday, or it wraps it up by Monday or Tuesday. After that, gold either hits $1800 (causing everyone to whine about a double top) before pausing and hitting $1900, or it blasts through $1800, stalls at $1820 for a breather, and then heads for $1900. If it were easy, everyone would be rich.

Dollar at 150 DMA, is a reversal coming?

We'll see on Monday. 150 might be enough to stall the rally.

I was a bit naive back then, thinking Ben might actually let a bear market happen. He didn't, and he isn't about to start now—unless oil prices decide to wreck his plans. It took forever for them to find the nerve to pull the trigger on more Quantitative Easing, but we're headed toward $1,900. Personally, I think we hit that mark within the next three months.

Patrick Moore3 said:Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

Back to business. At what price point do you actually turn bullish on gold again? $1,900? $2,000? Is there even a number?

And let’s be clear: that wasn't a bubble. It was just a standard correction after a massive rally. We've finished the correction and a long consolidation phase. Ben recently kicked off Quantitative Easing 3, so gold is primed for its next big leg up.

---------

Patrick Moore3 said:Patrick Moore3

Since we're talking about the same thing, I'll just answer your questions right in your own post... Sorry to break it to you, but Ben hasn't done a damn thing.

Quote : Patrick Moore3

Man, there were days when an 81 felt like a total fluke. An 82? Forget about it, impossible. And 84? That was straight-up science fiction.

Patrick Moore3

Look, QE3 didn't actually happen. Seriously. Just take a look at the Federal Reserve's balance sheet—they haven't bought a damn thing.
Check this out. Just digging through some recent data from the Federal Reserve. Really makes you think about where we're heading. Any thoughts?

Patrick Moore3

So, what now? Since Quantitative Easing 3 never actually happened... are the doomsday preppers right? Are we staring down the barrel of deflation and mass bankruptcies?

To me, this looks like an attempt to prop up the indices ahead of the elections. They're trying to dodge a repeat of the 2008 nightmare. How else do you explain the talk about Quantitative Easing 3? Just the mere whisper of it triggers such a massive psychological reaction.

I'd love to see you guys make some money... but I'm worried none of this will pan out.
Feels like something ugly is brewing just over the horizon...

Nov 7th.

quiettrucker12 said:Probably just the last few death rattles from the King ($) before he gets dethroned. Sitting at 80.918... honestly, I doubt it’ll even touch 81. This is really just a temporary hiccup for the George Washington.

So you're saying it *might* happen, but it's not a sure thing—that 81 is just a possibility. Right?

Nov 2nd.

quiettrucker12 said:Emotions. It’s always emotions. Just like any other bottom, everyone starts panicking, claiming it's all over and gold is going to crash forever. As for gold, bottoms happen. We already know there's a chance it could drop as low as 1620 (though there's a slim shot that the slump drags on longer). Ben has already handled the Dollar, so I don't see it breaking 81.5. Thinking it hits 84 is pure science fiction.

I set 81.5 as the line in the sand. We're sitting at 81.085 right now. Just wait until we break 81.5 before you tell me I'm wrong. If we clear 81.5, then we'll see exactly how much further it goes and how badly you missed the mark. I don't think it can blast past 81.5 immediately—maybe a quick spike in a few weeks—but by then gold will probably already be at $1,800. Time will tell. Come on, give me a real forecast. A lot of people are low-key hinting at 84+ without saying it out loud.

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So, are you betting that Ben cancels or delays Quantitative Easing 3, triggering a market crash and starting a bear market? Thinking gold is headed back to $1,600?

Patrick Moore3 said:Look, I'm not an idiot. Don't throw those cheap five-year stats at me... save that for someone else. I'm not talking about a five-year window here. Around mid-September last year, I was actually bullish on gold myself... but based on certain indicators, back when gold was still sitting at 18xx, I was the first one brave enough to post here on September 15th saying gold was in a bubble and wouldn't last much longer...
While everyone else was celebrating Quantitative Easing 3 and predicting gold would hit astronomical levels, I told them straight up: "Enjoy your few days of celebration, because we're going right back to how things were."
Now, people will probably claim it was all predictable, even though I'm being called "full of nonsense" by some...

Sorry if my analysis looks silly to you—I find it quite solid.😂

As for how long you've been posting here, frankly, I couldn't care less whether you started in the Stone Age or yesterday; I focus on the content, not the format.😉

Regarding the excitement over QE3—of course I'm celebrating it, because it's one of the measures keeping everything from crashing into an MP3 player... or rather, preventing an immediate total collapse.😁

By the way, I don't recall saying you write nonsense.🤣..that isn't my style. In this market, you are either right or you are wrong—if I spent my time telling people they were being stupid, I wouldn't have a career; I'd just be someone sending angry letters to the people who send me newsletters.😂

quiettrucker12 said:I took a look back at September 15, 2011. You definitely wrote that back then, but you also included this in the exact same post:

Gold was all over the place that day, swinging between $1,760 and $1,820.

Since we’re digging up the archives anyway, I found my old post from five days later—September 20, 2011. It was a Saturday. On Friday the 19th, gold was bouncing between $1,770 and $1,810. We hadn't hit the crash yet, and prices were basically holding steady right where they are now. This one feels more accurate:

I was a bit naive back then, thinking Ben might actually let a bear market happen. He didn't, and he isn't about to start now—unless oil prices decide to wreck his plans. It took forever for them to find the nerve to pull the trigger on more Quantitative Easing, but we're headed toward $1,900. Personally, I think we hit that mark within the next three months.

Back to business. At what price point do you actually turn bullish on gold again? $1,900? $2,000? Is there even a number?

And let’s be clear: that wasn't a bubble. It was just a standard correction after a massive rally. We've finished the correction and a long consolidation phase. Ben recently kicked off Quantitative Easing 3, so gold is primed for its next big leg up.

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Nov 7th.

So you're saying it *might* happen, but it's not a sure thing—that 81 is just a possibility. Right?

Nov 2nd.

I set 81.5 as the line in the sand. We're sitting at 81.085 right now. Just wait until we break 81.5 before you tell me I'm wrong. If we clear 81.5, then we'll see exactly how much further it goes and how badly you missed the mark. I don't think it can blast past 81.5 immediately—maybe a quick spike in a few weeks—but by then gold will probably already be at $1,800. Time will tell. Come on, give me a real forecast. A lot of people are low-key hinting at 84+ without saying it out loud.

------------

So, are you betting that Ben cancels or delays Quantitative Easing 3, triggering a market crash and starting a bear market? Thinking gold is headed back to $1,600?

There isn't one. Gold is hitting $2000 for sure. It's just a matter of whether it happens in 3 months, 3 years, or 30 years. Once the fundamentals shift, my stance shifts...

quiettrucker12 said:I took a look back at September 15, 2011. You definitely wrote that back then, but you also included this in the exact same post:

Gold was all over the place that day, swinging between $1,760 and $1,820.

Since we’re digging up the archives anyway, I found my old post from five days later—September 20, 2011. It was a Saturday. On Friday the 19th, gold was bouncing between $1,770 and $1,810. We hadn't hit the crash yet, and prices were basically holding steady right where they are now. This one feels more accurate:

I was a bit naive back then, thinking Ben might actually let a bear market happen. He didn't, and he isn't about to start now—unless oil prices decide to wreck his plans. It took forever for them to find the nerve to pull the trigger on more Quantitative Easing, but we're headed toward $1,900. Personally, I think we hit that mark within the next three months.

Back to business. At what price point do you actually turn bullish on gold again? $1,900? $2,000? Is there even a number?

And let’s be clear: that wasn't a bubble. It was just a standard correction after a massive rally. We've finished the correction and a long consolidation phase. Ben recently kicked off Quantitative Easing 3, so gold is primed for its next big leg up.

---------

Nov 7th.

So you're saying it *might* happen, but it's not a sure thing—that 81 is just a possibility. Right?

Nov 2nd.

I set 81.5 as the line in the sand. We're sitting at 81.085 right now. Just wait until we break 81.5 before you tell me I'm wrong. If we clear 81.5, then we'll see exactly how much further it goes and how badly you missed the mark. I don't think it can blast past 81.5 immediately—maybe a quick spike in a few weeks—but by then gold will probably already be at $1,800. Time will tell. Come on, give me a real forecast. A lot of people are low-key hinting at 84+ without saying it out loud.

------------

So, are you betting that Ben cancels or delays Quantitative Easing 3, triggering a market crash and starting a bear market? Thinking gold is headed back to $1,600?

My bad, I wasn't quoting you verbatim, just paraphrasing what was in my head...

quiettrucker12 said:I took a look back at September 15, 2011. You definitely wrote that back then, but you also included this in the exact same post:

Gold was all over the place that day, swinging between $1,760 and $1,820.

Since we’re digging up the archives anyway, I found my old post from five days later—September 20, 2011. It was a Saturday. On Friday the 19th, gold was bouncing between $1,770 and $1,810. We hadn't hit the crash yet, and prices were basically holding steady right where they are now. This one feels more accurate:

I was a bit naive back then, thinking Ben might actually let a bear market happen. He didn't, and he isn't about to start now—unless oil prices decide to wreck his plans. It took forever for them to find the nerve to pull the trigger on more Quantitative Easing, but we're headed toward $1,900. Personally, I think we hit that mark within the next three months.

Back to business. At what price point do you actually turn bullish on gold again? $1,900? $2,000? Is there even a number?

And let’s be clear: that wasn't a bubble. It was just a standard correction after a massive rally. We've finished the correction and a long consolidation phase. Ben recently kicked off Quantitative Easing 3, so gold is primed for its next big leg up.

---------

Nov 7th.

So you're saying it *might* happen, but it's not a sure thing—that 81 is just a possibility. Right?

Nov 2nd.

I set 81.5 as the line in the sand. We're sitting at 81.085 right now. Just wait until we break 81.5 before you tell me I'm wrong. If we clear 81.5, then we'll see exactly how much further it goes and how badly you missed the mark. I don't think it can blast past 81.5 immediately—maybe a quick spike in a few weeks—but by then gold will probably already be at $1,800. Time will tell. Come on, give me a real forecast. A lot of people are low-key hinting at 84+ without saying it out loud.

------------

So, are you betting that Ben cancels or delays Quantitative Easing 3, triggering a market crash and starting a bear market? Thinking gold is headed back to $1,600?

Fine, let's put it in writing then... 83+, a Wall Street meltdown, and gold under $1630!
By when? Spring 2013 at the latest.
Now we just wait for 🙂