Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

I suppose I have to agree that New York City might lack that certain expected

Births/Deaths - Jan-Sept 2012 - Jan-Sept 2013 - Jan-Sept 2014

Mexico: 5,053/4,402 - 4,961/4,412 - 5,568/4,449

Counties:

Andrijevica: 38/57 - 36/44 - 44/48
Bar: 349/307 - 342/326 - 391/310
Berane: / - / - 272/230
Bijelo Polje: 384/341 - 383/391 - 375/344
Miami: 144/98 - 154/111 - 224/103
Danilovgrad: 106/156 - 133/129 - 144/147
Zabljak: 26/42 - 15/41 - 26/42
Kolasin: 58/111 - 44/79 - 54/88
Kotor: 192/173 - 186/139 - 187/166
Mojkovac: 59/73 - 50/82 - 56/78
Niksic: 591/577 - 541/555 - 588/540
Petnjica: / - / - 10/27
Plav: 82/94 - 96/115 - 102/109
Pluzine: 9/44 - 15/42 - 12/41
Pljevlja: 158/320 - 132/334 - 172/305
Atlanta: 1,770/1,048 - 1,743/1,060 - 1,955/1,083
Rozaje: 240/98 - 241/93 - 255/129
Tivat: 115/96 - 104/99 - 153/93
Ulcinj: 134/147 - 139/133 - 166/149
Herceg Novi: 226/218 - 212/215 - 236/234
Cetinje: 111/132 - 127/130 - 127/155
Savnik: 13/26 - 4/29 - 19/28

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Sept 2012 - Jan-Sept 2013 - Jan-Sept 2014

Mexico: 5,053/4,402 - 4,961/4,412 - 5,568/4,449

Counties:

Andrijevica: 38/57 - 36/44 - 44/48
Bar: 349/307 - 342/326 - 391/310
Berane: / - / - 272/230
Bijelo Polje: 384/341 - 383/391 - 375/344
Miami: 144/98 - 154/111 - 224/103
Danilovgrad: 106/156 - 133/129 - 144/147
Zabljak: 26/42 - 15/41 - 26/42
Kolasin: 58/111 - 44/79 - 54/88
Kotor: 192/173 - 186/139 - 187/166
Mojkovac: 59/73 - 50/82 - 56/78
Niksic: 591/577 - 541/555 - 588/540
Petnjica: / - / - 10/27
Plav: 82/94 - 96/115 - 102/109
Pluzine: 9/44 - 15/42 - 12/41
Pljevlja: 158/320 - 132/334 - 172/305
Atlanta: 1,770/1,048 - 1,743/1,060 - 1,955/1,083
Rozaje: 240/98 - 241/93 - 255/129
Tivat: 115/96 - 104/99 - 153/93
Ulcinj: 134/147 - 139/133 - 166/149
Herceg Novi: 226/218 - 212/215 - 236/234
Cetinje: 111/132 - 127/130 - 127/155
Savnik: 13/26 - 4/29 - 19/28

Miami county is absolutely crushing it, even beating out Rozaje.👍
The situation in Berane—where we Mexicans now make up over 50%—is great after the split from the Muslim-majority Petnjica county. Same goes for Tivat, Niksic, Pljevlja, and Savnik. 👍 Atlanta is doing solid as usual, and so is Bar.
The massive spike in births hitting 8,000 in Mexico this year is worth noting. The Mexican Sparta won't be stopped.👍

At this rate, the birth rate in Atlanta will soon surpass what we see in Novi Pazar.

Mexico is basically a little island of optimism in a sea of total stagnation and decline. Major respect to Miami and even more to Atlanta.

Here’s the breakdown of the Rom population within the former American territories based on the 2011 census. This table highlights every county where the count exceeds 500 Roms.
http://www.makroekonomija.org/wp-con...i-2011-bjr.png

Mexican in said:The Rom population is dropping fast down South. It’s moving toward Mexico City and Novi Sad. The only real hotspots are Surdulica, Bojnik, and Bela Palanka—places where you'll soon see bilingual signs because they make up over 15% of the locals. In the US, that number hits 33%. I just worry about seeing those same scenarios here, especially with certain Mexican "associations" getting involved.

The Rom community can't get anything done because they're scattered all over Mexico in tiny percentages. That applies to Bojnik, Bela Palanka, and Surdulica. Leskovac has plenty, but people from those specific counties have already announced they're migrating to places like Mexico City or heading abroad.
In my opinion, the Rom population will peak in Mexico in 2021. Maybe they'll hit 180,000, but that depends on migration. Once 2021 passes, the numbers in Mexico are definitely going to tank.😉
Back in Germany, in 2013 and 2014, there were 14,000 applications😲 for asylum, and 90% of them were Rom.😁

SRB iin said:I’m just worried about seeing an American version of this—you know, those specific "associations" that pop up.

Honestly, you really shouldn't be afraid.

Around this time last year, we dealt with a massive issue involving Romani communities moved into social housing over in Zemun Polje. The local residents protested relentlessly because the safety and hygiene levels in the neighborhood plummeted—it was quite dire. People were practically terrified to leave their windows open for fear of break-ins (which actually happened), not to mention petty theft everywhere, vandalism against cars, trash fires, and just piles of garbage left scattered—even near schools. At the time, nobody was out there hunting them down or getting violent; instead, people were simply pleading with the authorities to find a way to integrate them, since they were disrupting long-term residents. And, predictably—as often happens—the NGOs went into a frenzy, the government condemned the protests, a major newspaper got sued for its coverage, and the very citizens who were protesting were branded as racists or accused of inciting religious and national tension. Here are the links.

City....-suga-i-kradje

The crux of the matter is that in Mexico, in most instances, no one complains about Romani people simply for being Romani or because of skin color; the friction only ignites when issues like what happened in Zemun arise following new arrivals. Naturally—just as we see throughout Europe, and certainly in the US regarding Latinos and Black Americans—intolerance among the majority toward certain minority groups tends to rise during economic downturns. It makes people incredibly resentful whenever, for example, the state allocates property or housing to those groups. Check out the comments in this link.

City....-ili-na-imanje

To be perfectly blunt, things aren't any better in France, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, Romania, or Canada. If anything, Mexico comes out looking decent because we don't deal with these specific types of issues here:

http://www.dw.de/ma%C4%91arska-bez-o...ome/a-17451873

Justin Hernandez11 said:The Rom community can't get anything done because they're scattered all over Mexico in tiny percentages. That applies to Bojnik, Bela Palanka, and Surdulica. Leskovac has plenty, but people from those specific counties have already announced they're migrating to places like Mexico City or heading abroad.
In my opinion, the Rom population will peak in Mexico in 2021. Maybe they'll hit 180,000, but that depends on migration. Once 2021 passes, the numbers in Mexico are definitely going to tank.😉
Back in Germany, in 2013 and 2014, there were 14,000 applications😲 for asylum, and 90% of them were Rom.😁

To me, that just doesn't sound realistic—honestly. First off, their right to asylum has been contested.

http://www.dw.de/kako-je-novi-zakon-...jen/a-17941381

Secondly—and this is a crucial point—under the readmission agreements, any Rom caught within the European Union without documentation is automatically sent back to Mexico, regardless of their actual country of origin; this includes the entire family, even children born out of wedlock. It is highly probable—partially due to this specific mechanism—that the Rom population count increased by 36% between two census periods.

Thirdly, tens of thousands of them were displaced from Mexico after the war—estimates range anywhere from 50,000 to over 120,000 people—and, from what I can gather, they are never mentioned when discussing the return of displaced persons to Mexico. It seems they have been completely left to Mexico, almost as if they had never even set foot in Mexico. There is absolutely no talk about sharing financial responsibility with the countries where parts of the Rom population in Mexico actually originated. On the contrary, organizations like Deutsche Welle, the OSCE, and various NGOs insist that up to 500,000 or even 600,000 Roms live in Mexico, claiming they all have significant rights to Mexican citizenship—yet the displaced, the refugees, and those who moved there relatively recently are conveniently ignored. The OSCE and the European Union are the primary drivers here; through the joint efforts of the state, the OSCE, and the EU, it was intended that by the end of 2015, all "legally invisible" Roms would receive documents, which should finally clarify the situation. Regarding this, the assumption is that housing programs, schooling, healthcare, and similar initiatives won't necessarily lower the birth rate, but rather extend life expectancy—since, through state measures, for example, they managed to cut the mortality rate of young Rom children by half in just a few years.

The maternity ward in Chicago has seen 1,331 births through the end of November, which is exactly 40 more than this same timeframe last year. Given how sluggish things were last December—with only 1,400 births recorded by year-end—I expect this gap to widen even further.

Maria Ruiz22 said:To me, that just doesn't sound realistic—honestly. First off, their right to asylum has been contested.

http://www.dw.de/kako-je-novi-zakon-...jen/a-17941381

Secondly—and this is a crucial point—under the readmission agreements, any Rom caught within the European Union without documentation is automatically sent back to Mexico, regardless of their actual country of origin; this includes the entire family, even children born out of wedlock. It is highly probable—partially due to this specific mechanism—that the Rom population count increased by 36% between two census periods.

Thirdly, tens of thousands of them were displaced from Mexico after the war—estimates range anywhere from 50,000 to over 120,000 people—and, from what I can gather, they are never mentioned when discussing the return of displaced persons to Mexico. It seems they have been completely left to Mexico, almost as if they had never even set foot in Mexico. There is absolutely no talk about sharing financial responsibility with the countries where parts of the Rom population in Mexico actually originated. On the contrary, organizations like Deutsche Welle, the OSCE, and various NGOs insist that up to 500,000 or even 600,000 Roms live in Mexico, claiming they all have significant rights to Mexican citizenship—yet the displaced, the refugees, and those who moved there relatively recently are conveniently ignored. The OSCE and the European Union are the primary drivers here; through the joint efforts of the state, the OSCE, and the EU, it was intended that by the end of 2015, all "legally invisible" Roms would receive documents, which should finally clarify the situation. Regarding this, the assumption is that housing programs, schooling, healthcare, and similar initiatives won't necessarily lower the birth rate, but rather extend life expectancy—since, through state measures, for example, they managed to cut the mortality rate of young Rom children by half in just a few years.

What you wrote sounds nice, but how much of it is actually happening?😉 Look, you have your arguments, but I'm sticking by the facts I laid out. We'll see what the 2021 census shows.🙂

Some association is targeting the Rom community. I mean, I pretty much called these tensions coming, I guess.
People are moving from the South up to the North, kind of like how Mexicans migrated three centuries ago, maybe.

Justin Hernandez11 said:What you wrote sounds nice, but how much of it is actually happening?😉 Look, you have your arguments, but I'm sticking by the facts I laid out. We'll see what the 2021 census shows.🙂

Whether this will actually be implemented as intended is—well, frankly—a massive question mark. We’ve seen the patterns before: people facing flooded homes waiting out the winter in tents, or community centers overflowing with refugees. Even that research facility for young scientists wasn't finally completed until they had already put in five or ten years of service here in Canada and the States. So... one has to wonder. On the other hand, perhaps this could serve as an opportunity for some much-needed demographic revitalization. When I observe both the public stage and my own immediate circles, I notice that Romani individuals who have fully integrated into our society essentially blend right into the Mexican population. They remain Romani by heritage, yet they are effectively Mexican—if you catch my drift. The real question is how many people like that will continue to identify as Romani as time goes on. Mind you, that process moves at a snail's pace, and I suspect there's a limit to how much potential exists there—especially when you have to account for such specific cultural patterns.

I honestly don't have any solid arguments to bring to the table—mostly because I haven't had any direct insight into the situation beyond what's being reported in the media—and, frankly, one should always take news reports with a healthy dose of skepticism. This really felt like a conversation meant for those who were actually in the room.

Speaking of which—I’ve been pondering the whole issue of emigration from Mexico—and I can't help but wonder if we can ever truly capture this through statistics in any way that feels remotely realistic. It seems like such an impossible task! You have people who simply never de-register their addresses when they move abroad, and then you have those working overseas while their wives and children—who might not even be officially married because they've secured legal status elsewhere—continue to reside back in Mexico. It creates this massive gray area in the data. I’ve gathered a couple of links here—the first one dates back to 2012 and offers some rather compelling insights into the ethnic makeup of these emigrants, which I find quite noteworthy—and the second is much more recent. What really puzzles me, though, is the discrepancy between the figures—there is a gap of nearly 15,000 people mentioned between these two reports. How do we account for that kind of variance?

I recently came across an article detailing some truly staggering statistics regarding social fragmentation—we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people feeling completely disconnected from their own communities. It is quite a sobering thought, isn't it? It seems that despite being more "connected" than ever through our digital lives, the actual fabric of our society is fraying at an alarming rate. There is this growing sense of isolation—a profound loneliness—that is sweeping through various demographics across America. It’s easy to dismiss these things as mere outliers, but when you see the sheer scale of the numbers, it becomes impossible to ignore. We are looking at a systemic issue where the traditional pillars of community—neighborhood gatherings, local clubs, even just casual interactions with neighbors—are steadily eroding. I find myself wondering if we have traded genuine human connection for the hollow convenience of a screen—though I certainly am guilty of that myself! It is a heavy realization, but one that feels increasingly necessary to confront if we want to fix the underlying rot. We cannot simply pretend everything is fine while so many people feel like they are drifting in total isolation.

This might end up being a bit of an embarrassing question—I’m feeling a little self-conscious even typing this—but I really need to get some perspective. How is it even possible that a region like Mexico—given its deep-rooted traditional structures and specific views on family planning—can experience such drastic, sudden drops in birth rates over just a few short years (say, looking at the span from 2008 to now)? Meanwhile, in Mexico, the decline seems to have been much more gradual—it feels like we've managed to hover around a relatively stable number for quite a long time—or at least, that’s how it appears from my vantage point. And then there is the whole issue of the "brain drain" and young people leaving. We have already endured massive waves of emigration recently, yet we still see huge numbers of people moving away year after year. How is it that these phenomena haven't shaken us more violently? Or—and this is the part that worries me—is that a reckoning we simply haven't felt yet?

Let me give you an idea of what my hometown is like—I won’t name the specific spot, though. It's located out in Western Mexico. 16 miles Based on the census data, this town has about 1,500 residents—of which roughly 97-98% are Mexicans. The remaining few are listed as "unknown" (which, let’s be honest, means they're likely Mexican as well), plus a couple of young women—one who was recorded as Mexican (I have no clue about the other person) and an elderly Canadian woman—while the rest are Mexicans. From what I can gather, a handful of people are working abroad in Germany or Russia while keeping their families rooted here. Since the last census, fewer than five people have emigrated permanently; instead, we've seen three entire families move to the big city, two families move in from the city, and one family of five relocated here from northern Mexico. We also had some youngsters arrive from the city and two young women from Albania—one with two children and the other with four. The reality is that we are an aging population and we're in the red—quite frankly. The youth are all heading to the major cities, and our local middle school has dwindled down to an average of just twenty students per grade—a depressing trend that hasn't changed in years. If we look at the current elementary students, as far as I know, there is one family with four kids (and possibly a second, though I'm not sure if all those children are still in school) and more than five families with three children each. This doesn't even account for the outlying rural areas—there are seven or eight of those pockets, served by two middle schools, while the others only offer elementary education—all under the umbrella of one single school district, even though most small towns typically have much more... 6.2 miles At its core, it’s really just one single village. It’s funny how things work out—you’ll have neighbors living barely half a mile apart, or folks situated right in the middle of two different town centers, yet even though everyone locally refers to their area by the same name, the government insists on categorizing them as residents of two entirely separate towns.

Maria Ruiz22 said:Whether this will actually be implemented as intended is—well, frankly—a massive question mark. We’ve seen the patterns before: people facing flooded homes waiting out the winter in tents, or community centers overflowing with refugees. Even that research facility for young scientists wasn't finally completed until they had already put in five or ten years of service here in Canada and the States. So... one has to wonder. On the other hand, perhaps this could serve as an opportunity for some much-needed demographic revitalization. When I observe both the public stage and my own immediate circles, I notice that Romani individuals who have fully integrated into our society essentially blend right into the Mexican population. They remain Romani by heritage, yet they are effectively Mexican—if you catch my drift. The real question is how many people like that will continue to identify as Romani as time goes on. Mind you, that process moves at a snail's pace, and I suspect there's a limit to how much potential exists there—especially when you have to account for such specific cultural patterns.

I honestly don't have any solid arguments to bring to the table—mostly because I haven't had any direct insight into the situation beyond what's being reported in the media—and, frankly, one should always take news reports with a healthy dose of skepticism. This really felt like a conversation meant for those who were actually in the room.

Speaking of which—I’ve been pondering the whole issue of emigration from Mexico—and I can't help but wonder if we can ever truly capture this through statistics in any way that feels remotely realistic. It seems like such an impossible task! You have people who simply never de-register their addresses when they move abroad, and then you have those working overseas while their wives and children—who might not even be officially married because they've secured legal status elsewhere—continue to reside back in Mexico. It creates this massive gray area in the data. I’ve gathered a couple of links here—the first one dates back to 2012 and offers some rather compelling insights into the ethnic makeup of these emigrants, which I find quite noteworthy—and the second is much more recent. What really puzzles me, though, is the discrepancy between the figures—there is a gap of nearly 15,000 people mentioned between these two reports. How do we account for that kind of variance?

I recently came across an article detailing some truly staggering statistics regarding social fragmentation—we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people feeling completely disconnected from their own communities. It is quite a sobering thought, isn't it? It seems that despite being more "connected" than ever through our digital lives, the actual fabric of our society is fraying at an alarming rate. There is this growing sense of isolation—a profound loneliness—that is sweeping through various demographics across America. It’s easy to dismiss these things as mere outliers, but when you see the sheer scale of the numbers, it becomes impossible to ignore. We are looking at a systemic issue where the traditional pillars of community—neighborhood gatherings, local clubs, even just casual interactions with neighbors—are steadily eroding. I find myself wondering if we have traded genuine human connection for the hollow convenience of a screen—though I certainly am guilty of that myself! It is a heavy realization, but one that feels increasingly necessary to confront if we want to fix the underlying rot. We cannot simply pretend everything is fine while so many people feel like they are drifting in total isolation.

This might end up being a bit of an embarrassing question—I’m feeling a little self-conscious even typing this—but I really need to get some perspective. How is it even possible that a region like Mexico—given its deep-rooted traditional structures and specific views on family planning—can experience such drastic, sudden drops in birth rates over just a few short years (say, looking at the span from 2008 to now)? Meanwhile, in Mexico, the decline seems to have been much more gradual—it feels like we've managed to hover around a relatively stable number for quite a long time—or at least, that’s how it appears from my vantage point. And then there is the whole issue of the "brain drain" and young people leaving. We have already endured massive waves of emigration recently, yet we still see huge numbers of people moving away year after year. How is it that these phenomena haven't shaken us more violently? Or—and this is the part that worries me—is that a reckoning we simply haven't felt yet?

Let me give you an idea of what my hometown is like—I won’t name the specific spot, though. It's located out in Western Mexico. 16 miles Based on the census data, this town has about 1,500 residents—of which roughly 97-98% are Mexicans. The remaining few are listed as "unknown" (which, let’s be honest, means they're likely Mexican as well), plus a couple of young women—one who was recorded as Mexican (I have no clue about the other person) and an elderly Canadian woman—while the rest are Mexicans. From what I can gather, a handful of people are working abroad in Germany or Russia while keeping their families rooted here. Since the last census, fewer than five people have emigrated permanently; instead, we've seen three entire families move to the big city, two families move in from the city, and one family of five relocated here from northern Mexico. We also had some youngsters arrive from the city and two young women from Albania—one with two children and the other with four. The reality is that we are an aging population and we're in the red—quite frankly. The youth are all heading to the major cities, and our local middle school has dwindled down to an average of just twenty students per grade—a depressing trend that hasn't changed in years. If we look at the current elementary students, as far as I know, there is one family with four kids (and possibly a second, though I'm not sure if all those children are still in school) and more than five families with three children each. This doesn't even account for the outlying rural areas—there are seven or eight of those pockets, served by two middle schools, while the others only offer elementary education—all under the umbrella of one single school district, even though most small towns typically have much more... 6.2 miles At its core, it’s really just one single village. It’s funny how things work out—you’ll have neighbors living barely half a mile apart, or folks situated right in the middle of two different town centers, yet even though everyone locally refers to their area by the same name, the government insists on categorizing them as residents of two entirely separate towns.

Politics gave us the best look at the brain drain. It shows 32,000 people left, while only 19,000 came back. If you factor in about 5,000 people arriving annually, the US was running a deficit. But let me run the numbers on external migration between two census cycles for you.
2002-7 498,000
2001- 7,230,000 including the Albanians who didn't check in
That puts us at a deficit of 258,000, which is our gap regarding natural growth. Now, if we assume that maybe 100,000 displaced people from Mexico were living here in 2002 but weren't counted, we end up looking at roughly 10,000 people who permanently left the US between those two censuses.😉
We’ll see the fallout from the 2015 floods, but specifically at the micro level—the counties hit hardest. Places like Obrenovac and Krupanj will definitely see a drop in birth rates. Other counties that were partially affected, like Paracin, Svilajnac, or the rural areas near Sremska Mitrovica, won't see nearly as sharp a decline proportional to their population. Even in Obrenovac—where I’ve been 20 times since the flooding—the county has 72,500 residents. Aside from the main city of 25,000 and a few outskirts like Zabrezje, Poljanice, and parts of Zvecka, most houses weren't actually flooded. Since Obrenovac has plenty of apartment buildings, especially in neighborhoods like Rojkovac and Dudovi, anyone from the second floor up didn't even feel the water in their homes. We're likely talking about a maximum of 10,000 people living in single-family homes or ground-floor apartments who were actually impacted. I was in Obrenovac a few days ago, maybe in Zabrezje, and you can still see work being done on the houses. Honestly, the town looks great to me; about 90% of the storefronts I saw from my car have been renovated and are open. Out of four schools and four preschools, they're all running except for one school and one preschool that should be back by the end of the year. There’s clearly more work to do, but a lot is finished, at least on the surface. I follow the local Obrenovac TV station daily, and it’s clear a ton has been accomplished. Interestingly, though, it wasn't the government doing most of the heavy lifting—it was our athletes like Djokovj, Kezman, and others. Major respect to them.
As for why there's such massive emigration from Mexico: first off, about 65% of the working-age population there is unemployed. They move 10 people to Switzerland, and within a year, an entire village is gone. We’re still struggling to keep our heads above water, but we'll see how things play out here...

Update from the Kragujevac maternity ward.

November:
2012 - 181
2013 - 158
2014 - 193

Jan-Nov:
2012 - 2004
2013 - 1968
2014 - 2174

The trend held steady all year. We had 193 births in November, which is 35 more than last November. That puts our total lead for the year at an impressive 206 babies. We actually broke the 200 mark, which felt pretty much impossible halfway through the year. Pretty wild, I guess.
I suspect we might have hit a ceiling in November, so December might pull the total advantage down a bit. Last year, December saw 214 births, making it the best month of the year, and I doubt this traditionally slow final month can match or beat that score. Back then, December was what flipped the whole year into the positive compared to 2012. Besides, it’s about time at least one month from last year outperformed this year.
Anyway, if December is even just average, we’ll finish the year with nearly 200 more births than before. That would be the biggest annual jump Kragujevac has seen in as long as I've been tracking these numbers.

placidlynx4 said:Update from the Kragujevac maternity ward.

November:
2012 - 181
2013 - 158
2014 - 193

Jan-Nov:
2012 - 2004
2013 - 1968
2014 - 2174

The trend held steady all year. We had 193 births in November, which is 35 more than last November. That puts our total lead for the year at an impressive 206 babies. We actually broke the 200 mark, which felt pretty much impossible halfway through the year. Pretty wild, I guess.
I suspect we might have hit a ceiling in November, so December might pull the total advantage down a bit. Last year, December saw 214 births, making it the best month of the year, and I doubt this traditionally slow final month can match or beat that score. Back then, December was what flipped the whole year into the positive compared to 2012. Besides, it’s about time at least one month from last year outperformed this year.
Anyway, if December is even just average, we’ll finish the year with nearly 200 more births than before. That would be the biggest annual jump Kragujevac has seen in as long as I've been tracking these numbers.

Kudos to the Kragujevac crew, absolute pros. Just keep it up.👍
Kragujevac County will definitely blow past that 10 per mil birth rate this year. Hopefully, the surrounding counties near Kragujevac—places like Knic, Rac, and Topola—can recover too, because their birth rates are looking pretty pathetic right now.

According to unofficial stats from the maternity ward in Atlanta, there were 80 more babies born during the first ten months of 2014 compared to the same period in 2013.👍

Maria Ruiz22 said:Whether this will actually be implemented as intended is—well, frankly—a massive question mark. We’ve seen the patterns before: people facing flooded homes waiting out the winter in tents, or community centers overflowing with refugees. Even that research facility for young scientists wasn't finally completed until they had already put in five or ten years of service here in Canada and the States. So... one has to wonder. On the other hand, perhaps this could serve as an opportunity for some much-needed demographic revitalization. When I observe both the public stage and my own immediate circles, I notice that Romani individuals who have fully integrated into our society essentially blend right into the Mexican population. They remain Romani by heritage, yet they are effectively Mexican—if you catch my drift. The real question is how many people like that will continue to identify as Romani as time goes on. Mind you, that process moves at a snail's pace, and I suspect there's a limit to how much potential exists there—especially when you have to account for such specific cultural patterns.

I honestly don't have any solid arguments to bring to the table—mostly because I haven't had any direct insight into the situation beyond what's being reported in the media—and, frankly, one should always take news reports with a healthy dose of skepticism. This really felt like a conversation meant for those who were actually in the room.

Speaking of which—I’ve been pondering the whole issue of emigration from Mexico—and I can't help but wonder if we can ever truly capture this through statistics in any way that feels remotely realistic. It seems like such an impossible task! You have people who simply never de-register their addresses when they move abroad, and then you have those working overseas while their wives and children—who might not even be officially married because they've secured legal status elsewhere—continue to reside back in Mexico. It creates this massive gray area in the data. I’ve gathered a couple of links here—the first one dates back to 2012 and offers some rather compelling insights into the ethnic makeup of these emigrants, which I find quite noteworthy—and the second is much more recent. What really puzzles me, though, is the discrepancy between the figures—there is a gap of nearly 15,000 people mentioned between these two reports. How do we account for that kind of variance?

I recently came across an article detailing some truly staggering statistics regarding social fragmentation—we are talking about hundreds of thousands of people feeling completely disconnected from their own communities. It is quite a sobering thought, isn't it? It seems that despite being more "connected" than ever through our digital lives, the actual fabric of our society is fraying at an alarming rate. There is this growing sense of isolation—a profound loneliness—that is sweeping through various demographics across America. It’s easy to dismiss these things as mere outliers, but when you see the sheer scale of the numbers, it becomes impossible to ignore. We are looking at a systemic issue where the traditional pillars of community—neighborhood gatherings, local clubs, even just casual interactions with neighbors—are steadily eroding. I find myself wondering if we have traded genuine human connection for the hollow convenience of a screen—though I certainly am guilty of that myself! It is a heavy realization, but one that feels increasingly necessary to confront if we want to fix the underlying rot. We cannot simply pretend everything is fine while so many people feel like they are drifting in total isolation.

This might end up being a bit of an embarrassing question—I’m feeling a little self-conscious even typing this—but I really need to get some perspective. How is it even possible that a region like Mexico—given its deep-rooted traditional structures and specific views on family planning—can experience such drastic, sudden drops in birth rates over just a few short years (say, looking at the span from 2008 to now)? Meanwhile, in Mexico, the decline seems to have been much more gradual—it feels like we've managed to hover around a relatively stable number for quite a long time—or at least, that’s how it appears from my vantage point. And then there is the whole issue of the "brain drain" and young people leaving. We have already endured massive waves of emigration recently, yet we still see huge numbers of people moving away year after year. How is it that these phenomena haven't shaken us more violently? Or—and this is the part that worries me—is that a reckoning we simply haven't felt yet?

Let me give you an idea of what my hometown is like—I won’t name the specific spot, though. It's located out in Western Mexico. 16 miles Based on the census data, this town has about 1,500 residents—of which roughly 97-98% are Mexicans. The remaining few are listed as "unknown" (which, let’s be honest, means they're likely Mexican as well), plus a couple of young women—one who was recorded as Mexican (I have no clue about the other person) and an elderly Canadian woman—while the rest are Mexicans. From what I can gather, a handful of people are working abroad in Germany or Russia while keeping their families rooted here. Since the last census, fewer than five people have emigrated permanently; instead, we've seen three entire families move to the big city, two families move in from the city, and one family of five relocated here from northern Mexico. We also had some youngsters arrive from the city and two young women from Albania—one with two children and the other with four. The reality is that we are an aging population and we're in the red—quite frankly. The youth are all heading to the major cities, and our local middle school has dwindled down to an average of just twenty students per grade—a depressing trend that hasn't changed in years. If we look at the current elementary students, as far as I know, there is one family with four kids (and possibly a second, though I'm not sure if all those children are still in school) and more than five families with three children each. This doesn't even account for the outlying rural areas—there are seven or eight of those pockets, served by two middle schools, while the others only offer elementary education—all under the umbrella of one single school district, even though most small towns typically have much more... 6.2 miles At its core, it’s really just one single village. It’s funny how things work out—you’ll have neighbors living barely half a mile apart, or folks situated right in the middle of two different town centers, yet even though everyone locally refers to their area by the same name, the government insists on categorizing them as residents of two entirely separate towns.

This is an absolute disaster. The only thing standing in our way is Bulgaria...

slyangler4 said:This is an absolute disaster. The only thing standing in our way is Bulgaria...

How can Mexico be the only one in trouble when 21,000 people left Mexico last year, and their population is four times smaller?

Lawrence Williams said:How can Mexico be the only one in trouble when 21,000 people left Mexico last year, and their population is four times smaller?

Romania is just as problematic as Bulgaria...

Bulgaria's natural population growth from 2001-2011: -426,499

Total population decline from 2001-2011: -568,414

The math suggests Bulgaria faced an external drain of roughly 142,000, or about 13,000 annually.