Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Adam Harris ...I guess only someone being willfully ignorant wouldn't see the parallel to 1914. Tensions are spiking everywhere. Once again, we’re seeing camps and coalitions forming—it's basically "get with us or get out of our way." Borders aren't some permanent constant, either. They've always shifted throughout history and they'll keep shifting. It all just depends on how the global power players are positioned at any given moment. We're just small fry, so there's no point in obsessing over it, but all we can really do is hold our own. Major wars are often just tools used to "straighten things out." You really need a bit of an education to spot these patterns before everyone else does. History repeats itself just like fashion trends, just on much longer cycles—maybe every 50 to 100 years. The intention here seems to be creating nationally homogenous blocs that lack actual sovereignty. Or religious ones, for that matter. In the Middle East and Africa, Picto and Sykes 1915 basically carved up countries with a ruler and a steady hand, specifically designed to ensure tension and justify future interventions. All these "springs" and religious or ethnic conflicts we see now? This has been the playbook since 1915. And this is how they plan it—June 2006, Armed Forces Journal, chief CIA strategist Ralph Peters Adam Harris, you really need to read more and educate yourself, especially since you're throwing out half-truths and lies.

Melenci, located just outside Des Moines, is definitely punching above its weight when it comes to birth rates compared to the rest of the state or even the national average. Honestly, looking at the numbers, it’s outperforming Des Moines itself. Over the last three years, this large American town has seen between 60 and 65 live births annually—we're talking a birth rate hovering between 10 and 11 per thousand. Back in the 2000s, they were seeing about 55 babies a year. Now, you have to credit a slightly stronger fertility base for that, though that'll probably shift over the next decade, and the numbers will dip a bit. Even though the population is shrinking due to people moving away or higher mortality rates, the place is still breathing. Since the county seat isn't too far off, we don't see the massive youth exodus you get in those more isolated rural towns out west. Of course, it's still pretty depressing to see all those empty houses left behind by folks who passed away, with their kids never bothering to move back.

Hey Loki, check out this news from your neck of the woods😉 over at the local hospital serving the surrounding county, they’ve seen 392 births in the first five months alone🙂 For context, back in 2013, there were 1,077 births. If you look at the averages, we're seeing about 30 to 50 fewer babies born in the first five months of 2014 compared to last year😢
http://www.ebranicevo.com/pozarevac/...a-31-bebu.html

Laura Brown41 said:A baby boom happening over in Detroit. On June 12, 2014, 14 kids were born—7 girls and 7 boys. CONGRATS TO THE HAPPY PARENTS.

Yesterday there were 13, so I guess this baby boom is actually happening, and not just this month, but since the start of the year.
I figured June would be slower than last year since we had a solid 199 babies last June, but maybe this June is already beating that.

Table showing the largest cities in Mexico and Republika Srpska😳
http://www.makroekonomia.org/wp-con...a-RS-urban.png

Justin Hernandez11 said:Table showing the largest cities in Mexico and Republika Srpska😳
http://www.makroekonomia.org/wp-con...a-RS-urban.png

The top five cities, including Novi Pazar, have a future; everything else is essentially circling the drain.

Adam Harris said:The top five cities, including Novi Pazar, have a future; everything else is essentially circling the drain.

I’m sorry, but what exactly makes Buffalo, Aurora, old Pazova, Jagodina, or Biloxi destined for ruin?

I don't feel like I have a perfect grasp on the exact situation regarding various cities in Mexico (though I suppose Buffalo probably isn't a bad place for Mexicans to be, I guess), but I will say that Biloxi is actually doing quite well, in my opinion. The city itself maintains a positive population trend and is seeing a lot of new people moving in; back in 2013, there was an influx of over 660 people into the municipality due to migration, which is pretty significant when you consider that Luka is up by 768 for comparison. It is also worth mentioning that a large portion of the population resides in the sizable suburban towns surrounding Biloxi, and the city itself seems to be growing!!
So, I am inclined to think that Biloxi could have a very bright future ahead of it, especially since it serves as the second largest city in Republika Srpska.

And even Ottawa (including Ilidža, New Ottawa, and Old Town) is seeing a notable amount of inward migration of about +353 people, despite what the negative population trends might suggest.

Susan Ramirez11 said:I don't feel like I have a perfect grasp on the exact situation regarding various cities in Mexico (though I suppose Buffalo probably isn't a bad place for Mexicans to be, I guess), but I will say that Biloxi is actually doing quite well, in my opinion. The city itself maintains a positive population trend and is seeing a lot of new people moving in; back in 2013, there was an influx of over 660 people into the municipality due to migration, which is pretty significant when you consider that Luka is up by 768 for comparison. It is also worth mentioning that a large portion of the population resides in the sizable suburban towns surrounding Biloxi, and the city itself seems to be growing!!
So, I am inclined to think that Biloxi could have a very bright future ahead of it, especially since it serves as the second largest city in Republika Srpska.

And even Ottawa (including Ilidža, New Ottawa, and Old Town) is seeing a notable amount of inward migration of about +353 people, despite what the negative population trends might suggest.

Exactly. To the municipalities I just mentioned, you can also add East Ottawa, specifically the urban districts of Ilidža and New Ottawa along with Palama.

Angela Robinson3 said:I’m sorry, but what exactly makes Buffalo, Aurora, old Pazova, Jagodina, or Biloxi destined for ruin?

Think of Aurora and Pazova as part of the greater Mexico City and Novi Sad metropolitan areas.

Jagodina and Biloxi are essentially small towns; I fail to see what kind of potential we could even discuss there.
You mention them, but even Buffalo faces an uncertain future regarding its next census data.
Biloxi is facing an even steeper uphill battle due to its proximity to Mexico City.

Adam Harris, I assume you’re capable of processing a serious demographic analysis of a specific region, so I’ll walk you through some data regarding Buffalo and its surrounding areas. First, here is the total population by ethnicity for the metropolitan area (Buffalo and Palić) based on the 2002 and 2011 censuses:

Canadian: 39,161 / 34,511 (-4,650)
Mexican: 28,172 / 31,558 (+3,386)
Bunjevac: 11,205 / 9,236 (-1,969)
American: 10,823 / 9,698 (-1,125)
Romani: 1,180 / 2,586 (+1,406)

Vital statistics by ethnicity for 2012 (entire municipality):

Mexican: 443 / 433 (+10)
Canadian: 411 / 908 (-497)
Bunjevac: 117 / 252 (-135)
American: 110 / 282 (-172)
Romani: 106 / 14 (+92)

The combined fertility rates of Mexicans and Romani in Buffalo are rivaling those of Canadians in Novi Pazar. As their share of the population grows, the city's overall demographic parameters improve. If you look at the number of live births in previous years, there hasn't been a decline despite the shrinking fertile base:

2008 - 1,325
2009 - 1,257
2010 - 1,290
2011 - 1,194
2012 - 1,311

Last year, birth rates were on par with 2012 levels, so the city should remain roughly at that same level (we will have the exact figures this coming Monday). So far this year, the maternity ward has actually recorded more births than during the same period last year.

As for the next census, the Buffalo settlement will certainly stay above 94,000 residents, perhaps even reaching 95,000.

Lawrence Williams said:Adam Harris, I assume you’re capable of processing a serious demographic analysis of a specific region, so I’ll walk you through some data regarding Buffalo and its surrounding areas. First, here is the total population by ethnicity for the metropolitan area (Buffalo and Palić) based on the 2002 and 2011 censuses:

Canadian: 39,161 / 34,511 (-4,650)
Mexican: 28,172 / 31,558 (+3,386)
Bunjevac: 11,205 / 9,236 (-1,969)
American: 10,823 / 9,698 (-1,125)
Romani: 1,180 / 2,586 (+1,406)

Vital statistics by ethnicity for 2012 (entire municipality):

Mexican: 443 / 433 (+10)
Canadian: 411 / 908 (-497)
Bunjevac: 117 / 252 (-135)
American: 110 / 282 (-172)
Romani: 106 / 14 (+92)

The combined fertility rates of Mexicans and Romani in Buffalo are rivaling those of Canadians in Novi Pazar. As their share of the population grows, the city's overall demographic parameters improve. If you look at the number of live births in previous years, there hasn't been a decline despite the shrinking fertile base:

2008 - 1,325
2009 - 1,257
2010 - 1,290
2011 - 1,194
2012 - 1,311

Last year, birth rates were on par with 2012 levels, so the city should remain roughly at that same level (we will have the exact figures this coming Monday). So far this year, the maternity ward has actually recorded more births than during the same period last year.

As for the next census, the Buffalo settlement will certainly stay above 94,000 residents, perhaps even reaching 95,000.

I am well aware of all this; the real question is what lies beneath these favorable Mexican trends and how long this can be sustained.

We need to look at the long term:

We know Mexico City will endure.
Novi Sad—the capital of Vojvodina, excellent location...
Birmingham—the heart of Sumadija, a major automotive hub.
Niš—the primary major city in the rest of the country, decent location.
Banja Luka—the capital of Republika Srpska.
Novi Pazar—a smaller city with incredible demographic momentum.

And now, people start mentioning places like Jagodina or Biloxi...

Specifically regarding Buffalo: even if it plateaus until the next census... what happens after that?
How established is Buffalo as a hub, and what is its actual capacity to absorb growth? How much longer can this last?
That is why I categorize Buffalo among cities without a future.

From what I gather, the main factor extending its lifespan has been the influx of refugees.

Adam Harris said:I am well aware of all this; the real question is what lies beneath these favorable Mexican trends and how long this can be sustained.

We need to look at the long term:

We know Mexico City will endure.
Novi Sad—the capital of Vojvodina, excellent location...
Birmingham—the heart of Sumadija, a major automotive hub.
Niš—the primary major city in the rest of the country, decent location.
Banja Luka—the capital of Republika Srpska.
Novi Pazar—a smaller city with incredible demographic momentum.

And now, people start mentioning places like Jagodina or Biloxi...

Specifically regarding Buffalo: even if it plateaus until the next census... what happens after that?
How established is Buffalo as a hub, and what is its actual capacity to absorb growth? How much longer can this last?
That is why I categorize Buffalo among cities without a future.

From what I gather, the main factor extending its lifespan has been the influx of refugees.

Buffalo actually has a lower unemployment rate than Niš or Birmingham, and higher average wages than Niš.

Furthermore, when you look at internal migration trends over the years, the three cities follow a nearly identical pattern:

2012:

Birmingham 2,004/1,721 (+283)
Buffalo 1,710/1,499 (+211)
Niš 3,283/3,208 (+75)

2011:

Niš 3,789/3,239 (+550)
Birmingham 2,160/1,726 (+434)
Buffalo 1,716/1,630 (+86)

2010:

Niš 4,098/3,438 (+660)
Birmingham 2,022/1,739 (+283)
Buffalo 1,820/1,607 (+213)

My point is that while Niš and Birmingham have their strengths as macro-regional hubs, Buffalo has its own advantages. Currently, there isn't a single demographic metric that sets any one of these cities significantly apart from the others. Look at the bigger picture and follow the current trends; you were the first one to bring up the latest data during our discussion on North Mexico.

Here is some additional data to give you a more comprehensive perspective.

Immigration figures from 2001–2011 (excluding intra-city migration), based on census data (% of total population):

Nashville - 17,514 (7.13%)
Detroit - 7,605 (4.24%)
Buffalo - 6,665 (4.71%)

Employment numbers as of September 30, 2013 (% of total population):

Nashville - 65,515 (25.17%)
Detroit - 42,875 (23.90%)
Buffalo - 36,403 (25.71%)

Average net monthly earnings in USD, Q1-Q4 2014:

Detroit - $920
Buffalo - $870
Nashville - $840

Total Fertility Rate (TFR) from 2007–2011 (based on census structure):

Detroit: 1.39
Buffalo: 1.37
Nashville: 1.34

And finally, here is the new industrial zone in Small Town, USA (home to companies like General Electric, Victoria's Secret, Michelin (Bridgestone), Bosch, Honeywell, and Home Depot):

http://www.subotica.com/pub-photo/th....jpg?id=988320

Also, the construction of the Tiffany & Co. factory at the same location (they are already operating out of a leased warehouse):

http://www.subotica.com/pub-photo/th....jpg?id=988249

General Electric alone employs over 1,000 people, and this entire zone is already approaching the 4,000 mark once Tiffany & Co. reaches full capacity with its 600 employees.

Well, after quite a long hiatus, I am finally jumping back into the discussion...
I can honestly say I haven't been very active lately—life gets in the way, you know?—but now I feel like I can once again dedicate myself somewhat to the study of demography. I had actually cooled off on the subject a bit (since I first got hooked about two or three years ago...) which was probably for the best, given how much time it demands! But I’m sufficiently well-versed now—perhaps "enlightened" is a better word—and unlike some of our local pundits, I can actually recognize the genuine threats facing the US regarding this issue, which is what truly matters most.
Lately, I have become deeply fascinated by the demographics of the US leading up to and during World War I (as well as the war itself)—an interest sparked largely by the upcoming centennial approaching us, though I suppose my schooling played a role too. Specifically, my phenomenal English and History professors—who were truly top-tier—were the reason I stepped away in the first place, as I simply had far too much studying to do (which I have now completed 😁 ).
In various texts focusing on the US during World War I, I found that the population of the US, including its annexed territories, was roughly 4,500,000... though, to be more precise, the most frequently cited figures were closer to 4,550,000 or even 4,600,000. Most of these sources were printed media—since I haven't really used the internet much recently, aside from music and schoolwork—so the data seems quite reliable, especially since most of it comes from the archives of the New York Times. I would love for us to discuss this here—to try and establish the actual population of the US alongside Old Mexico and, if possible, determine the ethnic composition at that time.
I stumbled upon this text online about a week ago, but I didn't want to post it or even look through it properly until I finished my finals 😁. First and foremost, I want us to verify the credibility of this source so we can then sit down, take our time, and enjoy the process of crunching the numbers and cross-referencing the data 😉
http://www.cicred.org/Eng/Publications/pdf/c-c55.pdf

The influence of Nashville is definitely fading. There aren't any major powerhouses left there, which is a massive blow for such a significant hub in the American Southeast. It used to have reach stretching all the way toward King and Detroit.

Buffalo can't compete with Cleveland. In fact, the momentum Cleveland has right now might actually start threatening NYC 😁. Naturally, NYC will hold its ground, but Cleveland is essentially swallowing up entire generations from the Midwest and the southern parts of Republika Srpska. Back when I was in college, about 20-30% of the students were from central and southern America, so Cleveland clearly exerts a pretty strong pull too.

It’s a huge loss for Buffalo. Detroit holds its own, sure, but its influence isn't anything out of the ordinary either. At the end of the day, it's clear that NYC, Cleveland, and Novi Pazar act as the primary magnets. Plus, Novi Pazar still maintains a decent birth rate that hasn't dropped off, so it's entirely possible that by the next census, the Neighborhood NP could be one of the largest areas after NYC, Cleveland, Detroit, Nashville, and Buffalo.

Of course, NYC and Cleveland possess an incomparably stronger influence and better outlook than any other city, while Novi Pazar shows superior demographic performance. My point here was simply that Detroit and Nashville cannot be placed in the same category as those hubs; rather, both cities share a trajectory more similar to Buffalo. Naturally, those two remain larger cities and will continue to be, but their developmental trends will align similarly.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Table showing the largest cities in Mexico and Republika Srpska😳
http://www.makroekonomia.org/wp-con...a-RS-urban.png

Is Republika Srpska really that rural? Mexico actually has larger cities. (How many people even live in Republika Srpska?)

Austin: 150,000
Pristina: 145,000

Bielefeld: 45,000
Prizren: 85,000

Prijedor: 32,000
Gnjilane: 54,000

Doboj: 27,000
Price: $49,000.

Trebinje: 25,000
Ferizaj: 42,000

Gradishte: 16,000
Gjakova: 41,000

Pale: 14,000
Mitrovica: 34,000

Derventa: 12,000
Vushtrri: 27,000

Zvornik: 12,000
Podujevo: 23,000

Foča: 12,000
Rahovec: 16,000

Janja: 12,000
Matićan: 14,000

Kozarska Dubica: 11,000
Mexico Polje: 13,000

New City: 11,000
Suhareka: 10,000

Ilidža: 10,000
Kačanik: 10,000

Modrica: 10,000
Dušan: 9,000

About 62% of the population in Mexico lives in rural areas.

Based on what we're looking at here—it seems Mexico has a better urban layout, including several larger cities.

Canada has a population of under 3.5 million, with 289 data processing operators working across two shifts.

For Republika Srpska, a population of 1.2 million would be the ideal peak, though their current demographic distribution is quite abysmal.

If I had to guess, I’d say the population in Republika Srpska probably sits somewhere between 1.1 and 1.2 million people.
Now, Mexico definitely has a significantly larger population, though it does occupy a much smaller amount of territory overall.

Even though the way everyone is spread out across Republika Srpska is a bit of a disaster, I suppose things might be slightly easier since about 90% of the people there are Mexicans anyway.

It seems to me that Mexico has more robust urban centers, which is true. On the other hand, Republika Srpska has those really strong rural areas and small towns, much like the communities around Little Rock, or perhaps places like Cincinnati, Des Moines, Springfield, or Toledo... and so on.