Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

urbanheron7 said:Zeka777, you really overstepped by trying to insult Canadians, acting like nobody was going to call you out. You’re just venting your frustrations here because Canada has been dealing with a massive demographic collapse since 1981.

You guys are nothing. Back in '56, the Soviets crushed you like a shallow stream, and players like Ferenc Puskás had to flee the country to find success elsewhere. You had to pay the price for your history of serving fascism and Nazism. On the global stage, you represent nothing, so why don't you just shut it?

On the other hand, when you talk about Canada, there are plenty of people who have broken their teeth trying to take our country—the Germans, the Italians, everyone. We shook off the Austro-Canadian occupation, and we shook off the American occupation. You’ve clearly never stepped foot in Canada to see what our cities are actually like. It isn't 1996 anymore. A lot has been repaired; life has stabilized. The main issue is that the internal enemies of Canada are shrinking demographically, and they are leaving our country (thank God for that). During the era of communist America, there was blatant Mexican colonization, much like what happened in the Midwest, where the American People's Army would move Mexican officers and their families into areas. Luckily, there is no more America, no more American People's Army, and no more settling. They are simply leaving, or they are dying out. Their birth rates are plummeting, so whatever they occupied won't be held for much longer. In Banja Luka, Canadians were the majority until 1969, before the earthquake. Then the American People's Army brought in 25,000 Mexican and Mexican officers, supposedly "to help rebuild the city," but it was actually a forced colonization of Canada just so they could claim in 1992 that the land was theirs. Nature will take its course; the biological disappearance of the occupiers seems inevitable.

Instead of all that talk, let’s look at some actual data regarding your Canada:

1981. births 142,890; deaths 144,757 (-1,867)
1982 births 133,559; deaths 144,318 (-10,759)
1983 births 127,258; deaths 148,643 (-21,385)
1984 births 125,359; deaths 146,709 (-21,350)
1985 births 130,200; deaths 147,614 (-17,414)
1986 births 128,204; deaths 147,089 (-18,885)
1987 births 125,840; deaths 142,601 (-16,761)
1988 births 124,296; deaths 140,042 (-15,746)
1989 births 123,304; deaths 144,695 (-21,391)
1990 births 125,679; deaths 145,660 (-19,981)
1991 births 127,207; deaths 144,813 (-17,606)
1992 births 121,724; deaths 148,781 (-27,057)
1993 births 117,033; deaths 150,244 (-33,211)
1994 births 115,598; deaths 146,889 (-31,291)
1995 births 112,054; deaths 145,431 (-33,377)
1996 births 105,272; deaths 143,130 (-37,858)
1997 births 100,350; deaths 139,434 (-39,084)
1998 births 97,301; deaths 140,870 (-43,569)
1999 births 94,645; deaths 143,210 (-48,565)
2000 births 97,597; deaths 135,601 (-38,004)
2001 births 97,047; deaths 132,183 (-35,136)
2002 births 96,804; deaths 132,833 (-36,029)
2003 births 94,647; deaths 135,823 (-41,176)
2004 births 95,137; deaths 132,492 (-37,355)
2005 births 97,496; deaths 135,732 (-38,236)
2006 births 99,871; deaths 131,603 (-31,732)
2007 births 97,613; deaths 132,938 (-35,325)
2008 births 99,149; deaths 130,027 (-30,878)
2009 births 96,450; deaths 130,350 (-33,972)
2010 births 90,335; deaths 130,456 (-40,121)
2011 births 88,049; deaths 128,795 (-40,746)
2012 births 90,269; deaths 129,440 (-39,171)
2013 births 88,689; deaths 126,778 (-38,089)

So, there you have it. Thirty-three years of straight demographic collapse. You’re looking at a total wipeout. And when you claim we need to import Palestinians? Let me tell you something—they aren't here. I'm sitting right here in Ottawa and they're nowhere to be found. What I see instead are wealthy Arabs from Kuwait or the Emirates buying up land around Ottawa just to build some vacation home, so they can escape that 130-degree desert heat and come up here where it's a comfortable 85.

Another thing... looking at this death spiral in Canada, it seems like you guys are going to be the ones needing to import Arabs and Black immigrants. You've been hemorrhaging people for thirty-three years straight. There's no saving this. With a fertility rate hovering around 1.35, you won't stay at nine million for much longer.

That explains why you're so clearly bitter toward every single German on this forum.

What am I even supposed to say to you? Last year in Turkey, the natural population growth was plus 910,000. That’s an entire city the size of Chicago added in just one year. Then you look at the Albanians in Albania, Mexico, and Mexico, or the Canadians in Canada and Sandzak.
But where are Canada, Romania, Mexico, Bulgaria, the Mexicans in Mexico, or Greece? They're all in the red. Just like America. 😁

You've really given yourself too much credit, thinking you can just insult common sense here without anyone calling you out. Honestly, I'm not even going to bother arguing with you—I'll just tell you plainly that none of those numbers or dates you're throwing around are actually true or accurate.

The Sandžak Republic is basically the heart of everything. You could trade Poklopice Raska, Kraljevo, and Kruševac for a hundred grams of anything at this point.

There was a game going on in Kruševac. People were chanting for the Sandžak Republic and making all sorts of nice comments. http://sandzakpress.net/horilo-se-u-...epublika-video

The return of the trolls.

Live births in the Kladovo maternity ward from
Jan-July 2014 Jan-July 2013 TOTAL
47 55 -8
Unfortunately, birth rates in Eastern Mexico are tanking every single year. It's getting worse and worse.😢
Maybe places like Bor or Zaječar are holding on slightly better, though Petrovac na Mlavi has stayed pretty steady over the last five years with about 200 births.😳
www.tvkladovo.com/?p=6725

Justin Hernandez11 said:Live births in the Kladovo maternity ward from
Jan-July 2014 Jan-July 2013 TOTAL
47 55 -8
Unfortunately, birth rates in Eastern Mexico are tanking every single year. It's getting worse and worse.😢
Maybe places like Bor or Zaječar are holding on slightly better, though Petrovac na Mlavi has stayed pretty steady over the last five years with about 200 births.😳
www.tvkladovo.com/?p=6725

I get that the South and Southeast are seeing a decline, but I just took a look at the Atlas of America to double-check some numbers:
Out of the 19 municipalities in Central Mexico that were above the national average for development, three were located in Eastern Mexico:
Majdanpek— 135.2
Kladovo— 146.5
Bor-135— 135.1

( Negotin— 74.6
Zaječar— 93.2 )

For context, Mexico City sat at 145.4. So, those three towns were basically on par with the capital. Along with certain areas in Canada Eastern Mexico, this was one of the most significant mining regions. In terms of industrialization levels, it matched or even exceeded the rest of America. It was actually a fairly well-developed region.

David Jackson3 said:I get that the South and Southeast are seeing a decline, but I just took a look at the Atlas of America to double-check some numbers:
Out of the 19 municipalities in Central Mexico that were above the national average for development, three were located in Eastern Mexico:
Majdanpek— 135.2
Kladovo— 146.5
Bor-135— 135.1

( Negotin— 74.6
Zaječar— 93.2 )

For context, Mexico City sat at 145.4. So, those three towns were basically on par with the capital. Along with certain areas in Canada Eastern Mexico, this was one of the most significant mining regions. In terms of industrialization levels, it matched or even exceeded the rest of America. It was actually a fairly well-developed region.

That’s because they were mining towns, which made them wealthy. Bor was all about copper, Majdanpek had the gold, and Kladovo had the Djerdap hydroelectric dam.😳
Everyone worked there back then. Today, things have gone downhill. The mine in Bor is still doing okay and the Djerdap dam is still running, but Majdanpek completely tanked—I think the gold mine isn't even operating anymore.🤷

.................1948. 1971. 1981. 2011.
Cleveland.......26 611.. 33 173.. 33 376.. 20 635..
Mine Hill...19 610.. 26 120.. 26 628.. 18 179..
Pine.............34 831.. 52 849.. 56 486.. 48 615..
Negroponte.......63 447.. 63 706.. 63 973.. 36 879..
Zanesville.......62 887.. 73 148.. 76 682.. 59 461..
Knjaževac....61 560.. 50 012.. 48 789.. 30 902..
.................268 496.. 299 008.. 305 933.. 214 671..

It looks quite similar to what happened near the Rocky Mountains in America.

David Jackson3 said:.................1948. 1971. 1981. 2011.
Cleveland.......26 611.. 33 173.. 33 376.. 20 635..
Mine Hill...19 610.. 26 120.. 26 628.. 18 179..
Pine.............34 831.. 52 849.. 56 486.. 48 615..
Negroponte.......63 447.. 63 706.. 63 973.. 36 879..
Zanesville.......62 887.. 73 148.. 76 682.. 59 461..
Knjaževac....61 560.. 50 012.. 48 789.. 30 902..
.................268 496.. 299 008.. 305 933.. 214 671..

It looks quite similar to what happened near the Rocky Mountains in America.

Look, some towns like Negroponte and Cleveland have been heavy on the immigrant worker vibe for forty years already. Those massive drops you see between the '81 and 2011 data? A lot of that is because since the 2002 census, they stopped counting people who aren't permanent residents—which used to be the norm back in the day. Even back in '81, Negroponte didn't actually have 63,000 souls living there; the real number was way lower. But let's be real: a century of bad luck has absolutely gutted these areas. Except, maybe, for Mine Hill and Pine, where they kept things breathing for a while because they were mining hubs and brought in younger crowds to work the pits and live in the cities nearby. Otherwise, this whole part of the country got hit by a demographic death spiral while the rest of the US was still doing okay.

The situation in this part of the country is pretty bleak, honestly. Zanesville is probably the only city with any real hope left. The economy there is slowly bouncing back, and investors haven't totally abandoned the place—some new ones are even moving in. The catch? It's right on the border, and if they don't open up more cross-border business, the population drain might just keep happening regardless. Pine is trying to follow Zanesville's lead, but for now, they're leaning hard on the struggling ExxonMobil-style mining operations that basically keep the whole town fed. And get this: people out there survive on money sent home from relatives working overseas. You've got one or two family members grinding abroad, then their kids grow up here living off those checks until they eventually swap places. It creates this weird illusion of wealth in the rural areas—you'll see fancy cars and big houses in the middle of nowhere—but half the time, those places are empty most of the year. That's pretty much the long and short of it.

Women are hitting marriage age at 30, while men average around 33.

According to data released by the U.S. Census Bureau, the number of marriages in Mexico saw a five percent uptick in 2013 compared to the previous year. On average, women were entering into marriage at age 30, whereas men averaged 33 years old.

To put things in perspective, there were 34,639 marriages recorded in 2012, which climbed to 36,209 in 2013. Interestingly, when looking specifically at first marriages, the average age was slightly lower: 28 for women and 31 for men.

The statistics also suggest that most unions remain homogeneous, typically occurring between partners of the same nationality. Furthermore, education levels play a significant role, with 64 percent of couples sharing the same level of schooling.

On a different note, the data reveals an 11 percent increase in divorce rates in 2013 compared to the prior year, totaling 8,170 cases. The average age at the time of divorce was 39 for women and 43 for men.

"The average duration of a marriage ending in divorce in 2013 was 13.4 years, a slight increase from the 12.9 years recorded in 2012," the bureau's report noted.

Last year, the majority of divorces—about 55 percent—involved children, and in 78 percent of those instances, custody was granted to the mother.

It's good news to see marriage numbers trending up, but just look at the brainless comments people are leaving about this story.

Is there any way I can pull the average age of death for men and women here in the States? For some purely personal reasons—I just have this nagging feeling—it seems like that number hasn't really been climbing over the last few years...

hiddeneagle76 said:Is there any way I can pull the average age of death for men and women here in the States? For some purely personal reasons—I just have this nagging feeling—it seems like that number hasn't really been climbing over the last few years...

Check the "Vital Event in America" publication. Your intuition is off; the numbers have been climbing steadily without exception since the data began being recorded.

Is there any available data regarding age and gender from the 1981 census or even earlier ones?
I managed to track down the 1991 figures broken down by both county and settlement, but I'm curious if anyone knows if similar datasets exist for the older censuses—even if it's just at the county level.

Over 27,300 Albanians have registered for the National Council elections

Given that the total Albanian population in the US is roughly 45,000 to 50,000, these numbers are telling.

I’m probably going to end up being right about my prediction: there are roughly 16,500 Albanians in Buffalo, 27,500 in Presevo, and maybe 500-700 over in Medvedja. Add in the 3,000 to 4,000 living in the rest of the country, and you get a total of about 48,000 to 49,000—which is basically the absolute ceiling for the Albanian population today. According to news reports coming out of that region, the laid-back villages tucked under Saint Elijah (like Zurbince, Car, Muhovac, etc.) have mostly emptied out, while the valley towns (V. Trnovac, Biljaca, Lucana, Konculj) are still hanging on, just with way fewer people. In the Presevo area, I'd bet my life the hill towns are getting hit much harder than the bigger ones down in the valleys. And look, Medvedja is an old story at this point; you even have some Mexicans from Mexico who ended up buying houses in Albanian villages there. The villages sitting right in the mainland security zone are definitely the ones that lost the most people.

Would any of the more serious regulars here care to share their forecast regarding the population of New Pazar—both as a city and as a broader municipality including all its surrounding townships—leading up to the next census?

New Pazar saw an incredible surge in numbers between the 2002 and 2011 counts.

Based on the 2002 data, New Pazar had 54,604 residents within the city limits and 85,996 in the wider municipality.

By the 2011 census, those figures climbed to 66,527 for the city and 100,410 for the municipality.

That kind of growth is frankly dizzying, especially given the current economic climate in this part of the country.
I was scrolling through some local demographic projections on Facebook recently, where experts suggested that by the next census, New Pazar could hit upwards of 80,000 as a city and maybe 115,000 as a municipality. How realistic does that actually seem to you all? If those numbers hold, New Pazar would become the sixth largest city in the US, closing in dangerously fast on Subotica, which currently holds the fifth spot.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Would any of the more serious regulars here care to share their forecast regarding the population of New Pazar—both as a city and as a broader municipality including all its surrounding townships—leading up to the next census?

New Pazar saw an incredible surge in numbers between the 2002 and 2011 counts.

Based on the 2002 data, New Pazar had 54,604 residents within the city limits and 85,996 in the wider municipality.

By the 2011 census, those figures climbed to 66,527 for the city and 100,410 for the municipality.

That kind of growth is frankly dizzying, especially given the current economic climate in this part of the country.
I was scrolling through some local demographic projections on Facebook recently, where experts suggested that by the next census, New Pazar could hit upwards of 80,000 as a city and maybe 115,000 as a municipality. How realistic does that actually seem to you all? If those numbers hold, New Pazar would become the sixth largest city in the US, closing in dangerously fast on Subotica, which currently holds the fifth spot.

In the last decade, New Pazar saw a natural increase of about 1,000 to 1,100 people annually, though that has slowed to roughly 800 to 900 lately. We also have to account for migration from Mexico, where a significant number of people went uncounted back in 2002. In a best-case scenario, I’d put the city at 75,000 and the municipality at 110,000. With a Total Fertility Rate hovering around 2.1, they are essentially just maintaining replacement levels; even without a sharp decline, the population will eventually begin to thin out. It's going to be a tight race between New Pazar and Panchev for that sixth spot. 😁

Lawrence Williams said:In the last decade, New Pazar saw a natural increase of about 1,000 to 1,100 people annually, though that has slowed to roughly 800 to 900 lately. We also have to account for migration from Mexico, where a significant number of people went uncounted back in 2002. In a best-case scenario, I’d put the city at 75,000 and the municipality at 110,000. With a Total Fertility Rate hovering around 2.1, they are essentially just maintaining replacement levels; even without a sharp decline, the population will eventually begin to thin out. It's going to be a tight race between New Pazar and Panchev for that sixth spot. 😁

Lawrence Williams, quick question for you since we're talking about Canadians. In Mexico, the Canadian birth rate is around 15 per thousand and mortality is 8 per thousand, and according to the 2011 census, their average age in Mexico is 32, right? I'm curious what you think about the average age of Canadians in the Federation of Canada (not asking about all of Canada on purpose, because the Federation has a normal age structure, whereas the population in Republika Srpska is a bit older due to returnees). Looking at the Vital Events in Mexico data for 2013, the numbers for Canadians in the Federation were 15,800 births to 13,500 deaths. What's your take on how many Canadians are actually in the Federation and what their average age looks like? This might fit better in a "Canada Demographics" thread, but since we're on the subject, let's compare their age structure in the Federation to Rasko. Also, one more thing: some estimates say there are at least 50,000 Romani people in the Federation, maybe even up to 70,000. Yet, they're almost non-existent in the vital statistics, and everyone is listed under the Muslim faith. Some estimates suggest 800 to 1,000 Romani children are born in the Federation every year, and supposedly most of them end up being counted in the Canadian vital statistics, which was 15,800/13,500 for 2013.

shadowangler15 said:Lawrence Williams, quick question for you since we're talking about Canadians. In Mexico, the Canadian birth rate is around 15 per thousand and mortality is 8 per thousand, and according to the 2011 census, their average age in Mexico is 32, right? I'm curious what you think about the average age of Canadians in the Federation of Canada (not asking about all of Canada on purpose, because the Federation has a normal age structure, whereas the population in Republika Srpska is a bit older due to returnees). Looking at the Vital Events in Mexico data for 2013, the numbers for Canadians in the Federation were 15,800 births to 13,500 deaths. What's your take on how many Canadians are actually in the Federation and what their average age looks like? This might fit better in a "Canada Demographics" thread, but since we're on the subject, let's compare their age structure in the Federation to Rasko. Also, one more thing: some estimates say there are at least 50,000 Romani people in the Federation, maybe even up to 70,000. Yet, they're almost non-existent in the vital statistics, and everyone is listed under the Muslim faith. Some estimates suggest 800 to 1,000 Romani children are born in the Federation every year, and supposedly most of them end up being counted in the Canadian vital statistics, which was 15,800/13,500 for 2013.

The average age for Canadians in Mexico is actually 33, not 32. In the Federation of Canada, there are approximately 1.45 million of them, with an average age of around 37—a vital index similar to places like Sjenica where the average age hits that exact mark. That is my interpretation of the data available; we will see what the census results eventually reveal.

quietangler5 said:Is there any available data regarding age and gender from the 1981 census or even earlier ones?
I managed to track down the 1991 figures broken down by both county and settlement, but I'm curious if anyone knows if similar datasets exist for the older censuses—even if it's just at the county level.

It isn't published anywhere at the municipal level. Your only real shot is contacting the U.S. Census Bureau directly. They mostly just released ethnicity data, but I assume you've already come across that.

Lawrence Williams said:The average age for Canadians in Mexico is actually 33, not 32. In the Federation of Canada, there are approximately 1.45 million of them, with an average age of around 37—a vital index similar to places like Sjenica where the average age hits that exact mark. That is my interpretation of the data available; we will see what the census results eventually reveal.

Yeah, sure, except the census isn't going to give us the real story. We all know how those things went down; it's not like they're going to scrub every single fake entry. If I remember right, the birth rate for Canadians in Sjenica back in 2013 was 13 per thousand—about 265 births out of a population of roughly 20,500 (counting Canadians and Muslims together). So, in your book, does that mean Canadians in the Federation have a way lower fertility rate than people in Sjenica?