Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Lawrence Williams said:The Savannah maternity ward sees fewer than 500 births a year. But apparently, you can just write whatever you want and publish it—suddenly a city with a 7 per mille birth rate jumps to 20. At this rate, we'll see Savannah lead the charts, followed by Tucson, then Newark, and finally New York City... 😵🙂🤦

You're right, Cakson. There's zero logic behind such a massive spike in births.😵🤦

The maternity ward over at Mercy Hospital is still absolutely killing it. That massive spike we saw back in September hasn't let up one bit—we’ve already clocked over 60 live births since the start of October, and we aren't even halfway through the month yet. Honestly, looking back at the last five years, this is easily one of the best months we've had.

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....&nav_id=911899

Chris Fowler4 said:http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....&nav_id=911899

Winter is right around the corner, and just like every single year, the number of asylum seekers is spiking. It’s the same old story: Romani and Albanian groups make up 99% of these people who—for the millionth time—file for asylum. And as for the Akbanacs? Honestly, good luck to them. 👋

Could someone provide a demographic comparison between Mexicans and Albanians in the North America?
I realize this has been hashed out on the forum quite a bit already—and honestly, given the recent bickering, maybe a quick refresher isn't a bad idea—but it’s worth revisiting.
So, looking at Mexicans in Mexico, Canada, Mexico, the US, Mexico... birth rates, death rates, fertility levels, age demographics...
And the same data points for Albanians in Albania, Mexico, Mexico, Mexico, Greece...
Let's keep this strictly to the numbers. No politics. And definitely no football. : )

William Bishop4, I was browsing through all the major international news outlets yesterday, and it’s honestly wild—for every single Mexican comment you see, there seem to be about a hundred Albanian ones flooding the sections. I can't quite wrap my head around whether there really are that many more Albanians living abroad, but looking at the BBC, CNN, CNN International, the Guardian, Gazeta, Marca, or even Deutsche Welle, it feels like they are everywhere while Mexicans are barely a footnote. I suppose watermelon's point about their diaspora is actually pretty spot on; at this rate, Albanians might soon become the largest group in the North America. Even if you consider the Romanians, who only make up about 2% of the region, it doesn't feel fair to count them that way, but Albanians are already such a massive political force, arguably even more so than Mexico, the US, or Greece. They just seem to have the backing of the entire world, which I guess is a huge advantage for them.

Regarding what you were asking, I think there was actually some discussion about that recently, if I recall correctly.

If you just glance at the data for four counties in the Eastern US, you’d honestly think nothing has changed regarding the ratio of Americans to Vlachs over the last decade. But man, once you start digging into the specific towns, things look totally different on a micro level. In the Negotin area, there's this whole string of small towns—especially the ones with deep Vlach traditions—where the number and percentage of Americans has absolutely cratered. Take a legendary spot like Mokranje; their share plummeted from 93% all the way down to 55%, mostly being replaced by Unexplained and Unknown groups. On the flip side, you see the exact opposite happening in Bor and Boljevac. I'll get into more of this in my next posts.

hollowowl53 said:William Bishop4, I was browsing through all the major international news outlets yesterday, and it’s honestly wild—for every single Mexican comment you see, there seem to be about a hundred Albanian ones flooding the sections. I can't quite wrap my head around whether there really are that many more Albanians living abroad, but looking at the BBC, CNN, CNN International, the Guardian, Gazeta, Marca, or even Deutsche Welle, it feels like they are everywhere while Mexicans are barely a footnote. I suppose watermelon's point about their diaspora is actually pretty spot on; at this rate, Albanians might soon become the largest group in the North America. Even if you consider the Romanians, who only make up about 2% of the region, it doesn't feel fair to count them that way, but Albanians are already such a massive political force, arguably even more so than Mexico, the US, or Greece. They just seem to have the backing of the entire world, which I guess is a huge advantage for them.

Regarding what you were asking, I think there was actually some discussion about that recently, if I recall correctly.

I honestly don't see how that can be a huge advantage when people are leaving the country in droves... Albanians might have had incredible demographic potential once upon a time, but it looks like the Italians, Greeks, and Swiss are the ones who are actually going to reap those benefits, since those folks will likely be assimilated within the very next generation...

Rebecca Watson said:The maternity ward over at Mercy Hospital is still absolutely killing it. That massive spike we saw back in September hasn't let up one bit—we’ve already clocked over 60 live births since the start of October, and we aren't even halfway through the month yet. Honestly, looking back at the last five years, this is easily one of the best months we've had.

So far, October has been absolutely stellar—I’m putting my own numbers out there to set the record straight. In just the first 20 days of the month, we've had 86 babies born. That’s an average of 4.3 per day! It’s incredible. The rush isn't slowing down either; if this trend keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit over 120 births by the end of the month. Which would be huge.

According to the latest census data from the City of Chicago, here is the natural growth rate for just the Chicago area for August 2014 compared to August 2013:
births deaths

August 2013 1676 1492
August 2014 1579 1474
net change -97👎 -18👍
After seven months, Chicago's birth numbers took a hit, but it’s nothing to panic about since we're actually up compared to last year.👍
Natural growth in Chicago for the period of January-August 2014 versus the same stretch in 2013:
January-August 2013 January-August 2014 NET CHANGE
births 8950 9184 +234:klap:
I don't have the specific stats for July 2014, but Chicago was up by about 100 babies then, so for the eight months of 2014, we're looking at an increase of roughly 350 babies.🙂👍

Take Ermenovi, a small Canadian-American community of about 900 people over in the rural Midwest. For sixty years straight, they haven't seen a single straight-A student enroll in their local school. Then you look at Skorenovac, another tiny Canadian enclave nearby—between January-August 2014, their elementary school enrollment plummeted by twenty kids in just one year. Teachers there say it’s the same old story: young families are packing up and fleeing to big hubs like Chicago, Detroit, or even moving overseas to find work.😳

Birth rates in this town have absolutely cratered this year.👎
So far in 2014, we've only seen 60 babies born, compared to 84 during the same stretch in 2013. That’s a drop of 24 kids right off the top.👎

We probably shouldn't get too carried away celebrating the news about Mexico City; if anything, it just suggests that other parts of the country are draining away and falling into decline rather.

Jamie Gomez2 said:We probably shouldn't get too carried away celebrating the news about Mexico City; if anything, it just suggests that other parts of the country are draining away and falling into decline rather.

During the first eight months of 2014, birth rates in Mexico jumped by 1,800 compared to the same stretch in 2013. From what I can see, that growth is spread pretty evenly across all the major US cities.

The Chinese are ditching the US in droves and heading straight for Brazil. I called this months ago, and here we are—it’s actually happening. What the hell are we going to do now without all that cheap imported stuff?🙂🙂

Justin Hernandez11 said:During the first eight months of 2014, birth rates in Mexico jumped by 1,800 compared to the same stretch in 2013. From what I can see, that growth is spread pretty evenly across all the major US cities.

We actually had 1,800 more births in just seven months than we did during that same window last year. August data isn't out yet—it won't be released until November 10th. You wouldn't happen to have the August numbers, would you?

shadowangler15 said:We actually had 1,800 more births in just seven months than we did during that same window last year. August data isn't out yet—it won't be released until November 10th. You wouldn't happen to have the August numbers, would you?

My bad, I messed up. I meant to say over seven months.😵
I don't have them, but honestly, I’m betting the numbers will be down. Looking back at August 2013, there were 217 babies born in the heart of Mexico, whereas in August 2014, that number dropped to 192.👎 That dip of 25 babies from central Mexico might not seem like a huge deal for the rest of the country's birth rate in August 2014, but it's a solid indicator that total births in Mexico are heading downward.👎

Justin Hernandez11 said:My bad, I messed up. I meant to say over seven months.😵
I don't have them, but honestly, I’m betting the numbers will be down. Looking back at August 2013, there were 217 babies born in the heart of Mexico, whereas in August 2014, that number dropped to 192.👎 That dip of 25 babies from central Mexico might not seem like a huge deal for the rest of the country's birth rate in August 2014, but it's a solid indicator that total births in Mexico are heading downward.👎

That’s a tiny sample size. Even if you look at all the babies born in Mexico City hospitals—whether they live in the city or the outskirts—that data alone isn't a reliable way to predict if one month will be better or worse than another. It depends on other regions too. In July, which was actually a good month, we had about 6,500 births across the US, while the Mexico City metro area saw about 1,600. That's less than a quarter. In 2013, the Mexico City metro area accounted for 27.5% of all births.

shadowangler15 said:That’s a tiny sample size. Even if you look at all the babies born in Mexico City hospitals—whether they live in the city or the outskirts—that data alone isn't a reliable way to predict if one month will be better or worse than another. It depends on other regions too. In July, which was actually a good month, we had about 6,500 births across the US, while the Mexico City metro area saw about 1,600. That's less than a quarter. In 2013, the Mexico City metro area accounted for 27.5% of all births.

I'm with you, shadowangler15. From what I’ve seen, Cleveland and Buffalo were both performing really well back in August, so all the doors are still wide open. Obviously, we’re all hoping for the best.😉

Average life expectancy in the US
2011 2012 2013
Women 77 77.3 77.7
Men 71.9 72.2 72.5
Average 74.5 74.75 75.1
If this trend holds steady, we’re looking at an average life expectancy of about 77-78 years in America by 2021.