NBA Betting: Vol. 2

Eric Fox7 said:@ Arthur Hill2
Do you really think the Blazers are going to bottom out, even if they're trailing by two or three wins for a playoff spot?
I highly doubt it. 🤷

In my view, trading Wallace for a first-round pick pretty much validates my earlier point. Why settle for the eighth seed? You just get knocked out by the Thunder in four straight games. And what do you actually gain with a late 20th-plus pick? It’s far more strategic for the long term to grit your teeth, take the hit this year, and potentially walk away with two high-value picks in a deep draft class.

Ultimately, I don't see the logic in trading away your second or third best player for assets that won't even matter until next season.

They picked up some wins against OKC and Chicago recently, but you could easily attribute that to the momentum generated by the new head coach.

Eric Fox7 said:@ Arthur Hill2
You really think the Blazers are going to bottom out, even if they're only trailing by two or three games for a playoff spot?
I mean, I highly doubt it, honestly. 🤷

Yeah, maybe, but let's be real—their roster just isn't deep enough after the whole rebuild phase.

Bradley Kern6 said:Can someone walk me through how the draft pick system works? What’s the deal there?
Also, I wouldn't bet on the Suns. I don't see Miami absolutely crushing them; they haven't looked that dominant lately, and Phoenix is playing solid basketball right now. My money is on a tight game where Miami doesn't win by more than ten points.

A draft pick is essentially an opportunity to select a player during the NBA Draft.

Every franchise is entitled to one selection in the first round each year. The order of these picks is determined by the standings from the regular season. Essentially, the teams with the worst records hold the highest probability of securing the top pick.

The number one overall pick is incredibly significant because it frequently yields a future All-Star talent.

The Blazers have stacked up plenty of picks for next season—and given how the rest of the league is shaping up, they aren't looking at a total basement collapse, just a slight slide in the standings. 🤷

I suspect they’ll aim for the playoffs, though with this specific roster led by that fanatic Felton ( 🤦 ), that’s going to be an uphill battle.

Arthur Hill2, take a look at the NBA fantasy threads. ☕

James Taylor3 said:The Blazers are absolutely loaded with draft picks for next season. Given how the rest of the league is looking right now, there is simply no way they tank all the way to the bottom; they'll probably only slide down a few spots. 🤷

I suspect they’re going to try to make a run for the playoffs, though with this specific roster—led by that absolute madman Felton ( 🤦 )—that's going to be an uphill battle, to say the very least.

Exactly. It makes zero sense for them to intentionally chase a high pick when the playoffs are practically within their reach.

Just a quick heads-up on how this works—teams making the playoffs get to pick their spots anywhere from 15th to 30th, so they skip the lottery entirely. Meanwhile, the teams missing out are all thrown into the hopper, with more balls assigned to whoever had the worst record—basically, the bigger the struggle during the season, the better your shot at landing that number one pick.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/NBA_Draft_Lottery

On top of that, looking at Portland—it’s almost a wash whether they end up with the 10th worst record or the 14th. When you look at the actual math, the percentage difference for snagging the top pick is so tiny it's practically negligible. Honestly, they’re probably better off just grinding for a playoff spot instead.

What the Portland Trail Blazers faithful actually think 🙂

Eric Fox7 said:Just a quick note on how this works—teams that make the playoffs get to choose their picks from the 15th to 30th slots, meaning they’re completely out of the lottery rotation. As for the teams that miss the postseason, the math is simple: more balls in the hopper means better odds. Essentially, the worse your record, the higher your shot at landing that number one pick.

The NBA Draft Lottery—a high-stakes mechanism designed to prevent bottom-tier teams from stacking talent through predictable draft orders. It’s a system built on weighted odds, ensuring that while the worst teams have the best shot at a superstar, the process remains somewhat unpredictable. It effectively mitigates the "tanking" culture by keeping the top picks within reach for more than just the absolute basement dwellers. Simple, mathematical, and occasionally controversial.

As for Portland—it's practically irrelevant whether they finish with the worst record or the tenth worst. The probability margins for that number one overall pick are negligible at this stage. They’re better off putting their energy into fighting for a playoff spot.

That's that. 👍

Arthur Hill2 said:What the Blazers faithful are thinking. 🙂

And if you want a look at what the fans are actually saying over on the official Blazers Facebook page. 😁

After yesterday's total disaster, we're going for some fresh wins today😉

Granger under 18.5 @ 1.85
-I’m taking the under here because honestly, the guy hasn't been looking anything special lately, right? Over his last 10 games, he's averaging about 16 points, and in the last two outings, he only managed 20 points total while shooting absolute garbage🤷. The only way he clears this is if he starts forcing shots until he collapses, just like Nicholas Chase mentioned earlier
. Anthony under 21.5 @ 1.85
-Ever since they "figured out" Lin, and since coming back from that injury, he's just not that same Melo who can chuck 25 shots a game anymore. He’s down to about 13 attempts per game now, and he’s consistently stayed under this line in his recent matchups
. Bryant over 28.5 @ 1.85
-He played like absolute trash last game, putting up only 15 points on a pathetic 3-for-20 shooting night. But come on, a player of his caliber isn't gonna let a slump like that happen during a series, right? I mean, look at that one game against Houston where he dropped 37 points on a solid 14-of-29 clip
. Gasol M over 15.5 @ 1.85
-The man is heating up! Lately, he’s been cruising past this mark regularly, averaging over 18 points, and in their two meetings this year, he put up 20 and 14. Plus, Sacramento isn't exactly known for having a defense that can shut him down—assuming he plays at his usual level, obviously
. Bosh over 15.5 @ 1.85
-I'm riding with this for a few reasons. First, like James Taylor said, Bosh is the most vital piece of this puzzle; when he plays well and hits 20+, they have a massive 15-2 record, compared to a shaky 17-7 when he falls short. Second, he basically single-handedly destroyed them in two games with 35 and 23 points respectively
. Scola over 15.5 @ 1.85
-Same logic as yesterday—there's nobody else stepping up to lead the charge with Martin and Lowry out of the lineup. Even when they were playing, he was dropping 20, so I don't see why he wouldn't do it again today
. Jennings under 18.5 @ 1.85
-Everything changed once Ellis arrived. He’s not the undisputed superstar anymore, so he’s gotta deal with fewer shots, which is pretty obvious from the stats. Besides, Ilyasova and Gooden have been putting in the work lately, so he doesn't need to be forcing everything blindly
.
Standard 6/7 System, Double Chance☕

Lin over 14.5 @ 1.85
Bynum over 17.5 @ 1.85
Paul over 19.5 @ 1.85
-10.5/Miami-Phoenix 2 @ 1.85
Portland under 105.5 @ 1.82 HL

If I get a chance later, I'll drop an analysis for these too

Good luck to everyone today😉

What’s everyone’s take on Sacramento? They’ve managed to string two wins together now, absolutely dismantling Boston by 25 and taking down Minnesota by 16. Given the current odds sitting at 2.30, the value looks pretty incredible to me.

James Taylor3 said:Just wait until you see what fans are posting on the official Trail Blazers Facebook page. 😁

I honestly don't understand the issue with accepting the fact that it's actually smarter for the Blazers to lose right now than to win.

Tanking isn't about players closing their eyes during shots or refusing to jump for loose balls. It’s about strategically weakening the roster to ensure the team can be twice as strong in the future. That is exactly what the Portland front office did when they moved on from players like Gobert and Covington. Unless someone genuinely believes that Okur and Williams are going to save this season, we have to face reality. You have locals born and raised in Portland rooting against their own team, watching other struggling franchises just to see them fail, and here we are debating whether the 12th best team in the West—a team currently in total shambles—has even a remote chance at making the playoffs 🙂.

As far as I'm concerned, this discussion is over.

Arthur Hill2 said:I honestly don't get why people are making such a big deal out of this—it’s pretty obvious that for the Blazers, losing is actually the smarter move right now than grabbing a win.

Look, I already laid out my argument above—and I think I made it pretty clear—that the situation is actually the exact opposite of what you're claiming. The only way that logic holds up is if they decide to tank every single game for the rest of the season... which, honestly, I find hard to believe. Besides, if it ever came out that they were throwing games on purpose? They’d be in massive trouble with the league. 🤷

Right now, there are ten teams sitting even lower in the standings than Portland—and hey, two of those guys actually have a legitimate shot at making the playoffs. If you look at the math, it puts Portland right in that 9th or 10th spot for the worst teams in the league. It’s funny how much weight people put on these tiny margins, too... if they end up finishing 14th versus 9th, we're only talking about a 1.2% difference in winning percentage. Just a rounding error, really.

That’s all I’ve got for now.

Arthur Hill2 said:I don't see the issue with accepting that it’s smarter for the Blazers to lose right now than to win.

Tanking isn't about players shooting with their eyes closed or chasing loose balls—it’s about weakening the roster strategically to build a powerhouse later. That’s exactly what the Portland front office did when they moved on from Camby and Wallace. Unless anyone actually believes Okur and Williams are going to save this season, we have to face reality. You have locals in Portland rooting against their own team, watching bottom-feeders play poorly, and yet people are still arguing that a 12th-place Western Conference team in total disarray has a legitimate shot at the playoffs 🙂.

As far as I'm concerned, the debate is over.

Eric Fox7 summed it up perfectly.

It isn't "smarter" to lose—that much is obvious.
Portland intentionally cleared the decks to target next season, but there’s zero reason for them to tank intentionally now. They'll push for the playoffs, likely miss out, but let's not call it tanking.

Besides, they’ve already stacked up enough picks for the upcoming draft...

And frankly, this current squad isn't the disaster some make it out to be. They didn't earn a spot in the Bulls' orbit for nothing. You still have an All-Star in Aldridge, a rising star in Batum, Crawford playing like one of the top five players in the league, and a few others. Sure, the roster with Camby and Wallace was miles ahead, but even these Blazers are significantly better than the Bobcats, Raptors, Wizards, Kings, or Hornets.
There is no way they drop to the absolute bottom of the West in these final 20 games. ☕

The percentage gaps are negligible. And honestly, don't believe everything you read on internet forums—there’s a massive amount of nonsense out there, including on this very board. 😉

Eric Fox7 said:Right now, there are 10 teams worse than Portland (two of whom have playoff potential), which means Portland should realistically finish somewhere around 9th or 10th among the worst. Whether they land at 14th or 9th, the difference in winning percentage is only 1.2%.

☕

Bradley Kern6 said:What’s the vibe on Sacramento? They’re riding high after two straight wins, absolutely dismantling Boston by 25 and taking down Minnesota by 16. Their coefficient is looking pretty sweet at 2.30.

🙂

I mean, I honestly have my doubts about whether the Kings can pull off anything similar against Memphis. It’s kind of hard to see them walking away with a win when you look at their interior defense—they're giving up about 48 PPG in the paint, which puts them dead last at #30—and they're also struggling big time on transition defense, letting in 17.4 PPG, also sitting at #30. Meanwhile, Memphis is basically a juggernaut in those specific offensive categories, sitting comfortably in their top 5. Looking back at the last time these two met when Memphis was in the mix, the Kings got absolutely bullied in the paint by 18 points, even without Zach Randolph being out there. Memphis just knows how to play lockdown defense; they force teams into tons of mistakes, averaging about 17.1 turnovers per game, and they're leading the pack with an average of 10.2 steals. All things considered, if they're facing a full-strength Memphis squad, Sacramento has a pretty slim shot at pulling off an upset 🙂

Nicholas Chase34 said:🙂

I honestly have my doubts about whether the Kings can replicate that kind of performance against Memphis. Given how much Sacramento struggles inside the paint—averaging 48 PPG allowed, which puts them dead last at #30—and their inability to stop fast breaks (allowing 17.4 PPG, also sitting at #30), a win feels like a massive reach. Memphis sits comfortably in the top five offensively in those exact categories. In their last head-to-head matchup against Memphis, the Kings were absolutely bullied in the paint by an 18-point margin, and that was even without Zach Randolph in the lineup. Memphis knows how to play defense; they force opponents into high turnover rates (averaging 17.1) and lead the league in steals (averaging 10.2). All things considered, when facing a complete Memphis squad, Sacramento’s chances of pulling off an upset are slim to none. 🙂

Thanks. So, what's your take on Houston? Do you think they could pull it off against them? 😉

Bradley Kern6 said:Thanks for the input! So, what’s your take on the Houston game? I feel like that would be a killer matchup to bet on. 😉

I don't see any reason why the Lakers wouldn't absolutely crush Houston. Sure, their road record has been kind of a mess lately, but they finally found that missing ingredient—they’ve actually started playing with that steady, rhythmic flow you see from guys like Jalen Brunson. Now that they've tapped into that kind of playmaking rhythm, I'm expecting their game to level up big time, especially when they're playing away from home.
The Houston Rockets are still dealing with Martin and Lowry sitting on the sidelines, and honestly, losing guys like that is such a massive blow to the rotation. It’s kind of like trying to run a high-end kitchen when your head chef and your sous-chef both call in sick at the same time—you might be able to scrape by, but you aren't winning any Michelin stars. Without those two anchoring things, our chances of pulling off a win feel pretty slim, almost like we're playing uphill in a thunderstorm. Why is it such a struggle? Well, it basically comes down to the fact that they provide the backbone for everything we do on the court.
Since they’re missing those two guys who actually know how to draw fouls—you know, basically just racking up easy points at the stripe—they’re in a bit of a spot. Even when they're healthy, the Rockets are pretty much bottom-of-the-barrel in that department, averaging only about 19.9 free throws a game. Honestly, Scola is really the only one out there who can consistently make things happen in the paint; you aren't getting much of a spark from Dalembert or Camby. Then you look at the backcourt and it's just Dragic and Lee, which isn't exactly a lineup that's going to give them an edge over anyone. After that tough loss to the Jazz, I’m really hoping Bryant starts leaning on Bynum and Gasol a bit more instead of just trying to go hero ball on his own. 🤷

Nicholas Chase34 said:I don't really see why the Lakers would lose to Houston. Even if they've been struggling on the road lately, they finally got what they needed—someone like Sessions to run the plays. So, I'm thinking their game might actually pick up, especially when they're away from home.
Houston is still missing Martin and Lowry, which is a pretty big deal. Without those two, their chances look pretty slim. Why though?
It's mostly because without them, nobody's driving to the hoop to draw fouls and get those easy points. The Rockets are already near the bottom of the league there, averaging about 19.9 free throws. Scola is basically their only guy scoring in the paint; Dalembert and Camby aren't doing much. In the backcourt, you've just got Dragic and Lee, who aren't exactly game-changers. After that loss to Utah, I'm hoping Bryant starts trusting Bynum and Gasol more instead of just trying to do everything himself. 🤷

Yeah, I guess I agree, but I feel like Kobe's been missing a real playmaker for years. Sessions isn't some superstar, but he's decent, so maybe Kobe can use his passing to get way more easy shots. But hey, who knows, we'll see.😉

What do you guys think about these others:

Memphis 2
Jennings UNDER
Bosh OVER
Batum OVER?

Good luck... cheers! 😉

Eric Fox7 said:I laid out my reasoning above regarding why the situation is actually the exact opposite—unless they intentionally throw nearly every remaining game this season, which I find highly unlikely and frankly hard to imagine how they'd escape the fallout if it were proven they were tanking on purpose.🤷

Right now, there are 10 teams performing worse than Portland (two of whom still have a shot at the playoffs), which suggests Portland should realistically finish somewhere around 9th or 10th among the bottom tier. The statistical difference between finishing 14th versus 9th is a mere 1.2%.

That’s my take.

Since I'm already typing more out, I might as well add this: what are the odds of the Bulls landing the number one pick and securing one of today's elite prospects?1.4% That's roughly one in four.😁

Anyway, looking at tonight's slate, I'll keep it simple; I've been having a bit of a rough patch lately:

Oklahoma—I'm taking them purely because the odds are tempting at 1.70. They are the top team in the West, and while they've hit a few bumps recently, I seriously doubt Utah will show any real fight tonight.

Nash under 12.5—It is entirely plausible that Miami will target Steve tonight given his lack of support. Expect them to double him and play aggressively, perhaps even utilizing those handchecks that the Heat seem to be letting slide for some reason. Let's hope he breaks them open in the fourth quarter.

That covers it. Good luck to everyone tonight.

Arthur Hill2 said:Since I’m already back here typing stuff up, might as well throw this in—what are the actual odds of the Chicago Bulls landing that number one pick and snagging one of today's elite players? 1.4% basically one in four. 😁

1.7%, honestly, when are we going to stop messing around? 😉

A once-in-an-XY-year anomaly 🤷
Just like how the Orlando Magic grabbed the top two picks back-to-back in '92 and '93 (and god knows what the probability was for something like 🤔), but whatever, it's irrelevant.
Besides, being the first or second pick doesn't guarantee anything—especially not for a team like the Portland Trail Blazers. 😁
Those who actually know their hoops history will probably just think about 1984 and Sam Bowie. 🙂

Anyone think we can hit the over on Millsap's points tonight (5/15)?
If Big Ali sits out, it’s looking pretty likely, though word is he might actually suit up tonight...🤷