Sanctions on Russia

wiredseal7 said:Since our media is already drowning in Soviet-style propaganda these days (bljutarnji, Imbex), they might as well ban these April Fools' pranks. Though, knowing them, they'll probably ban the truth about economic struggles soon too—can't have anyone questioning the "wise" policies of the European Union.

Looks like the gas flow to Latvia has been cut off. Unless I’ve once again taken something completely out of context, like I did with Slovack (my bad...).
edit: link

The Baltic states mostly rely on Russian gas. That’s probably why the "evil gnome" targeted them first—it’s not a coincidence, especially given how vocal their hostility has been lately, not to mention the arrests of YouTubers just for supporting Putin’s troops.

A tricky spot for Putin.
With an LNG terminal in Klaipėda boasting a maximum capacity of 4 billion cubic meters, Lithuania has enough gas for itself, but they are short by over a billion cubic meters when trying to supply Estonia and Latvia.
Now, if Putin decides to cut off the gas to Latvia, he'll essentially be freezing out the Russians living in Latvia and Estonia. We're talking about roughly 800,000 people.
Go ahead, Putin!!!!!

And speaking on the whole situation in Lithuania... they’re headed toward relying on zero percent Russian gas very soon. It used to be 100% dependence, but now? Just one floating terminal was enough to change everything (and it’ll end up covering parts of Latvia and Estonia too)
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...L9G34mliw&s=19

George Robinson43 said:The ultimate goal in the European Union is to hit 0%, except for Canada, which seems intent on staying tied to Russian energy long-term. However, they likely won't remain part of the European Union much longer, as there simply won't be room for pro-Russian states in that circle.

What I was actually getting at was the idea that if tomorrow we saw some real hand-shaking, successful negotiations, and an end to the war—which, let’s face it, isn't what anyone wants right now—we'd see a normalization of relations.

I really think Europe is going to slash those imports from 30% down to something like 10% within just two or three years. Basically, they'll keep a tiny little slice just to maintain some level of trading with Russia, but it won't mean anything significant to them anymore; they could pull the plug on it whenever they felt like it and wouldn't blink an eye.

Putin knows he’s already shot himself in the foot here, plain and simple. Europe is just going to solve their supply issues through other means over the next couple of years, whether he delivers the gas or not.

So, his window to keep barking at Europe is getting smaller by the day.

He’s been humiliated militarily, and trust me, the economic humiliation is right around the corner.

Already 100,000 jobs have vanished
https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-eco...sanctions.html

Sanctions basically act as a guarantee for selling oil and gas. If the EU actually wants to secure its energy supply, they need to tighten those sanctions. Moscow just pumps out subsidies—basically forcing companies to keep people on the payroll at minimum wage even when they aren't working. We need to ramp up that pressure and make sure Ukrainians have enough weapons to strike right when Russia hits its most vulnerable point.

feralnomad35 said:What I was actually getting at was the idea that if tomorrow we saw some real hand-shaking, successful negotiations, and an end to the war—which, let’s face it, isn't what anyone wants right now—we'd see a normalization of relations.

I really think Europe is going to slash those imports from 30% down to something like 10% within just two or three years. Basically, they'll keep a tiny little slice just to maintain some level of trading with Russia, but it won't mean anything significant to them anymore; they could pull the plug on it whenever they felt like it and wouldn't blink an eye.

Putin knows he’s already shot himself in the foot here, plain and simple. Europe is just going to solve their supply issues through other means over the next couple of years, whether he delivers the gas or not.

So, his window to keep barking at Europe is getting smaller by the day.

He’s been humiliated militarily, and trust me, the economic humiliation is right around the corner.

They are cutting back because they are aggressively pursuing alternatives to break their reliance on Russia. However, once things stabilize two or three years after the war ends and those alternative supply contracts expire, they’ll turn right back to Russian energy. It’s basic math: it will be the cheapest option on the market.

Carl Lee27 said:And speaking on the whole situation in Lithuania... they’re headed toward relying on zero percent Russian gas very soon. It used to be 100% dependence, but now? Just one floating terminal was enough to change everything (and it’ll end up covering parts of Latvia and Estonia too)
https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...L9G34mliw&s=19

Even the Baltic pipeline is nearing completion. It runs from Equinor's fields in the North Sea, through Denmark, straight to Poland, where it connects to the supply line for the Baltic states.
By January 1, 2023, we're looking at a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. This is all part of the massive strategic push to decouple Poland and the Baltic region from Russian gas—utilizing LNG terminals and direct links to the North Sea.
Essentially, the Danes, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians have been thinking ten years ahead of the Swabians—if we can even call those Kremlin employees like Schroeder, Mutti & co. "Swabians" at all.😉

George Robinson43 said:Even the Baltic pipeline is nearing completion. It runs from Equinor's fields in the North Sea, through Denmark, straight to Poland, where it connects to the supply line for the Baltic states.
By January 1, 2023, we're looking at a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. This is all part of the massive strategic push to decouple Poland and the Baltic region from Russian gas—utilizing LNG terminals and direct links to the North Sea.
Essentially, the Danes, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians have been thinking ten years ahead of the Swabians—if we can even call those Kremlin employees like Schroeder, Mutti & co. "Swabians" at all.😉

Look, let’s be realistic here about the sheer scale of what we're talking about. Germany's appetite for natural gas is absolutely massive. If they actually want to make a serious dent in their reliance on Russian supplies, they can't just rely on the hope that enough LNG will magically show up to fill the void—because, quite frankly, they don't have the infrastructure for it yet. They need to pivot toward alternative energy sources immediately, and I mean *immediately*. But even with this sudden, frantic push to accelerate the transition, we have to face the facts: real change takes time. You can't just flip a switch and expect an entire industrial powerhouse to run on nothing but sunshine and good intentions overnight. Is anyone actually under the illusion that this happens in a weekend? It’s a monumental undertaking, and despite the urgency, there's no way around the reality that building out that kind of capacity is a slow, grueling process.
I can't even begin to process this level of nonsense. Seriously? Is this really the best we can do? It’s absolutely pathetic. Are we just going to sit here and let this pass without a single word of scrutiny? I refuse to accept such a lack of substance. It's insulting, frankly.

If only we had a reliable way to generate power that was actually accessible—something that’s already working wonders over in Germany...

But it just didn't fit into that specific vision of Europe Mutti was chasing. You know, her and Russia, basically walking hand in hand.

Paul Sanders5 said:If only we had a reliable way to generate power that was actually accessible—something that’s already working wonders over in Germany...

But it just didn't fit into that specific vision of Europe Mutti was chasing. You know, her and Russia, basically walking hand in hand.

Man, if only we had listened to those old-school socialists and built a second massive nuclear plant in the Midwest instead of rushing into all this wild offshore drilling...

Paul Sanders5 said:If only we had a reliable way to generate power that was actually accessible—something that’s already working wonders over in Germany...

But it just didn't fit into that specific vision of Europe Mutti was chasing. You know, her and Russia, basically walking hand in hand.

Those communists were always against Mutti—mostly because they wanted a free ride without doing any of the work.☕

Paul Sanders5 said:If only we had a reliable way to generate power that was actually accessible—something that’s already working wonders over in Germany...

But it just didn't fit into that specific vision of Europe Mutti was chasing. You know, her and Russia, basically walking hand in hand.

Nobody is asking Angela Merkel or Gerhard Schröder for their opinion anymore, which is why people keep obsessively bringing up their names whenever they talk about wind power.

You can always try to "spin" the narrative to suggest that Germany only stayed profitable because of cheap Russian gas over the last 50 years...🤔
But let's be real: you could actually thank that cheap energy from Russia for keeping the economy competitive enough to weather the 2008 crash and the COVID crisis without breaking a sweat... all just so they could have the capital to beef up their military and support Ukraine now.🤔

lp

George Robinson43 said:A tricky spot for Putin.
With an LNG terminal in Klaipėda boasting a maximum capacity of 4 billion cubic meters, Lithuania has enough gas for itself, but they are short by over a billion cubic meters when trying to supply Estonia and Latvia.
Now, if Putin decides to cut off the gas to Latvia, he'll essentially be freezing out the Russians living in Latvia and Estonia. We're talking about roughly 800,000 people.
Go ahead, Putin!!!!!

That doesn't factor into his calculus. He would sacrifice all 800,000 of them just to feed his own ego. At the end of the day, much like how his troops are being wasted in Ukraine, those civilians could easily be treated as collateral damage for the sake of "the cause." Or perhaps they always have the option of returning to the motherland that is constantly calling them home... but that is a different story entirely.
I suspect this situation in the region will trigger a wave of civic unity among everyone living there, regardless of their background, mirroring exactly what we saw in Ukraine.
My belief is that the European Union won't let anyone freeze, no matter the circumstances. I don't put much faith in bureaucracy—but I do believe in the solidarity of the member states. This crisis is proving exactly what that membership is worth when things actually go south.

Bryan Booth82 said:Nobody is asking Angela Merkel or Gerhard Schröder for their opinion anymore, which is why people keep obsessively bringing up their names whenever they talk about wind power.

You can always try to "spin" the narrative to suggest that Germany only stayed profitable because of cheap Russian gas over the last 50 years...🤔
But let's be real: you could actually thank that cheap energy from Russia for keeping the economy competitive enough to weather the 2008 crash and the COVID crisis without breaking a sweat... all just so they could have the capital to beef up their military and support Ukraine now.🤔

lp

Well yeah, obviously—they relied on cheap gas for 30 years to fuel their entire manufacturing sector, and every study showed demand would plummet by 2030 anyway.

Who could've actually seen this coming? Besides, at the start of his political career, Putin was a completely different player altogether.
Even the most hardcore Putin fans couldn't have predicted this current "sickness"...

Besides, until a year ago, the guy in charge in the US was the one who slapped tariffs on steel by executive order. It's all the same—it doesn't matter which side of the aisle sends a lunatic to power.

Larry Fox5 said:Well yeah, obviously—they relied on cheap gas for 30 years to fuel their entire manufacturing sector, and every study showed demand would plummet by 2030 anyway.

Who could've actually seen this coming? Besides, at the start of his political career, Putin was a completely different player altogether.
Even the most hardcore Putin fans couldn't have predicted this current "sickness"...

Besides, until a year ago, the guy in charge in the US was the one who slapped tariffs on steel by executive order. It's all the same—it doesn't matter which side of the aisle sends a lunatic to power.

When you actually "rewind the tape," Putin hasn't changed much since he took power... he was the same psychopath then that he is today.
What he is doing in Ukraine has been his plan from day one; it’s just that the West wanted to believe that notorious liar because it was much easier to do so.

On the flip side, the West—and Germany in particular—profited immensely from this, which is why they played dumb. They pretended they didn't see a thing, clinging to that naive mantra of "change through trade."
And this is the mess we're left with today.
But regardless, wars are won by economies, not by supersonic missiles or Chechen mercenaries.

lp

Larry Fox5 said:Well yeah, obviously—they relied on cheap gas for 30 years to fuel their entire manufacturing sector, and every study showed demand would plummet by 2030 anyway.

Who could've actually seen this coming? Besides, at the start of his political career, Putin was a completely different player altogether.
Even the most hardcore Putin fans couldn't have predicted this current "sickness"...

Besides, until a year ago, the guy in charge in the US was the one who slapped tariffs on steel by executive order. It's all the same—it doesn't matter which side of the aisle sends a lunatic to power.

I mean, come on. That same Putin was invading neighboring countries ages ago, and that same Russia shot down a plane full of over 200 Europeans.

But sure, let's all just lean into that classic German mindset and pretend Putin suddenly became a new man in 2022. Like it was some New Year's resolution!

In about 730 days, Russian energy players won't even be a blip on the West's radar.
At the same time—mark my words—the cracks in Russia's financial, economic, military, and political systems are only going to get wider by the day.

casualtiger2 said:In about 730 days, Russian energy players won't even be a blip on the West's radar.
At the same time—mark my words—the cracks in Russia's financial, economic, military, and political systems are only going to get wider by the day.

Give it 730 days—gas will still be flowing through pipelines from Russia toward the European Union just fine. Perhaps the European Union might secure some alternative routes, maybe a few more pipelines from Africa or the Middle East, or perhaps they'll add an LNG terminal or an underground storage facility—just as a safety net—but the bulk of it will still come from Russia. It is entirely possible the supply won't even skip a beat.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Give it 730 days—gas will still be flowing through pipelines from Russia toward the European Union just fine. Perhaps the European Union might secure some alternative routes, maybe a few more pipelines from Africa or the Middle East, or perhaps they'll add an LNG terminal or an underground storage facility—just as a safety net—but the bulk of it will still come from Russia. It is entirely possible the supply won't even skip a beat.

That’s basically the situation, with one glaring difference: that flow of gas from Russia into the European Union... I guarantee you... will be cut by at least half within 730 days from today.
Mark my words, we'll see about that.
lp

We ought to talk about oil, seeing as it’s basically the backbone of Russian exports.

With newer oil fields creeping closer to the Arctic—where extraction and shipping are way more complicated, tech-heavy, and expensive—what’s the actual break-even point for selling Russian oil profitably? By break-even, I mean the price where the cost of getting it out of the ground and delivered matches the revenue from the sale.