Sanctions on Russia

Joshua Myers432 said:The China-West dependency goes both ways—China can't function without the West, and neither can they. China isn't going to ghost the West; if anything, a potential invasion of Taiwan would likely trigger massive Western sanctions against China.

Meanwhile, China will just suck up cheap energy from Russia while offering plenty in return. This setup works perfectly for China, and frankly, the Russians don't have much of a choice anyway.

You're tripping... seriously...

If we actually end up slapping sanctions on China (which, fingers crossed, won't happen), the West would probably handle that way easier than this absolute mess with Russia. Russia is vital to the European Union because of primary energy sources—stuff that is genuinely strategic and critical. China? They produce a ton of junk, sure, but they don't manufacture nearly as many things that are truly "strategic" for the West. Yeah, we buy mountains of cheap t-shirts and random crap made in China, but we aren't talking about high-stakes strategic assets in most cases.

Thinking that this whole situation is somehow a win for China is such a massive reach it's almost painful. What China actually wants is a fat, greedy West that keeps buying and buying more Chinese trinkets and nonsense, making us even more dependent on them (at least mentally, given how much stuff we rely on). Any drop in that consumption is bad news for China... it's not rocket science.

Joshua Myers432 said:And which cheap labor force and filthy industrial sector are those clueless Westerners using to prop up their own development?

Look, the West was already developed long before China started its massive climb to the top.

It’s not like Western greed and gluttony haven't played a part in creating some level of dependency on China, sure, but I see people here just throwing around nonsense claiming nothing gets manufactured in the West anymore. That is pure idiocy. There is still a massive amount of production happening in the West, and let's be real—the technical and digital expertise is still firmly rooted there too. Just look at the industrial and manufacturing output from places like Germany or the USA—it's still absolutely massive.

This is how I see history unfolding. America just keeps accumulating more wealth. And then suddenly, "Oh look, China has awakened! Let's find a way to exploit that too."

boldcanyon14 said:I honestly don't get how you think China could just screw over the West and side with Russia. Just look at this:

https://tradingeconomics.com/china/exports-by-country

In the USA alone, China's exports are 9x higher than what they send to Russia. Go ahead, try adding up all the "Western" countries. It's not like Chinese people are stupid; they're looking out for their own interests here. There's just no scenario where they ditch the West to stand next to Russia.

When you're exporting to the West, you're bringing in those fresh streams of dollars, which—as we all know—seem to lose value a little bit more every single day...

Dana Robinson4 said:When you're exporting to the West, you're bringing in those fresh streams of dollars, which—as we all know—seem to lose value a little bit more every single day...

....yeah, right.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/fore...ry-yields.html

The Dollar is sitting at its highest level in two decades, so maybe walk me through again how it "doesn't have any value"?

So, after a decade of hearing all this talk about Russian self-sufficiency and economic dominance, are we basically hearing the exact same thing about China now?

I might just move my savings over to the yuan; at least they're cheaper than anything I could get from Aunt Violet.

Dana Robinson4 said:It isn't even remotely the same thing.

Whether you're pumping oil into a tanker or a pipeline, it’s all essentially the same deal, isn't it?

But with gas, if you want to put it in a tanker, you have to go through the massive effort of super-cooling it first, only to have to reheat it once it reaches its final destination.

It doesn't matter; the bottom line is that an LNG terminal gives you the flexibility to bring in gas from any source you want, whereas those Russian pipelines leave you stuck with whatever they decide to send... and it's the exact same deal when it comes to oil...

hollowdriver13 said:....yeah, right.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/05/09/fore...ry-yields.html

The Dollar is sitting at its highest level in two decades, so maybe walk me through again how it "doesn't have any value"?

Compared to what, exactly?

Compared to flour, oil, or bauxite—it certainly isn't.

Dana Robinson4 said:Compared to what, exactly?

Compared to flour, oil, or bauxite—it certainly isn't.

🤦

Look, if the dollar gets stronger, you actually need fewer dollars to buy whatever XX is.

Global price hikes don't necessarily mean America has to dump more cash than everyone else... but you made this claim that the dollar is losing value every single day, so show me the proof. An opinion isn't an argument.

Most global trade moves through the dollar—it’s pretty simple math. The more currency flowing through the system, the stronger it stays. Up until yesterday, every single barrel of oil on the planet was priced in dollars. Even when China trades with the West, they're using the greenback, and honestly, that isn't changing anytime soon.
Of course, if you want a currency to actually mean something, you need some real backbone behind it—think GDP and solid gold reserves.

hollowdriver13 said:🤦

Look, if the dollar gets stronger, you actually need fewer dollars to buy whatever XX is.

Global price hikes don't necessarily mean America has to dump more cash than everyone else... but you made this claim that the dollar is losing value every single day, so show me the proof. An opinion isn't an argument.

When you're trading with Russia, you can strike a deal where they send over a massive oil tanker and we send them some lingerie or plush toys instead...

But when you're trading with America, you send over the trinkets and toys, and in return, they just flash some digits on your computer screen—digits that seem to lose their worth every single day.

Joshua Myers432 said:The Chinese have everything they need. The real question is what happens to the West if China decides to cut them off for any reason? Take Taiwan, for instance; that’s bound to become a flashpoint sooner rather than later.

In all honesty, Russia and China could potentially outperform the West on almost every level. The catch is that Russia and China have been eyeing each other through a scope for a long time now. They'll eventually have to swallow their pride and run into the Chinese embrace. While that might look like a winning move, I suspect it will turn out to be a massive mistake for Russia.

Well, it's not like China can just go out and start throwing punches at the West whenever they feel like it; you only had to look at how things kicked off earlier this year.

Their entire budget and national stability are built on this borderline insane GDP growth. Back in 2021, when Xi announced those economic reforms—trying to dial back the shark capitalism and lean more toward socialism—there was this massive exodus of capital from China. That automatically put the brakes on their economy, which led to all that "oh, we didn't mean it like that, it's business as usual" talk and them backing away from the reforms entirely.

But yeah, I totally agree that untangling these relationships would be incredibly painful for everyone involved. If anything, China would probably take a harder hit... so I guess the only real question is who has a higher tolerance for pain.

Dana Robinson4 said:When you're trading with Russia, you can strike a deal where they send over a massive oil tanker and we send them some lingerie or plush toys instead...

But when you're trading with America, you send over the trinkets and toys, and in return, they just flash some digits on your computer screen—digits that seem to lose their worth every single day.

It’s actually a pretty solid market concept, honestly. Bartering is a way back to the old days before Phoenix; I mean, if it's a straight trade, who's going to foot the bill for the shipping costs? Just give the captain 300kg of toys to toss into the engine and pay the crew.

Every major global currency loses a little more value year after year.

And yet, there's still zero actual proof that the dollar specifically is the one falling apart. It's weird, really—investors never seem to agree on that, but the second a crisis hits, everyone comes running back to the dollar and Federal Reserve bonds because, hey, it feels safe.

hollowdriver13 said:It’s actually a pretty solid market concept, honestly. Bartering is a way back to the old days before Phoenix; I mean, if it's a straight trade, who's going to foot the bill for the shipping costs? Just give the captain 300kg of toys to toss into the engine and pay the crew.

Every major global currency loses a little more value year after year.

And yet, there's still zero actual proof that the dollar specifically is the one falling apart. It's weird, really—investors never seem to agree on that, but the second a crisis hits, everyone comes running back to the dollar and Federal Reserve bonds because, hey, it feels safe.

Well, I suppose when you've just watched a third of your Bitcoin stack vanish in a single month, the dollar starts looking pretty damn stable by comparison, doesn't it?

hollowdriver13 said:🤦

Look, if the dollar gets stronger, you actually need fewer dollars to buy whatever XX is.

Global price hikes don't necessarily mean America has to dump more cash than everyone else... but you made this claim that the dollar is losing value every single day, so show me the proof. An opinion isn't an argument.

I doubt they mean literal money printing like back in America... surely they aren't that clueless.

Maybe they think interest rates are too low, leading to massive debt and overspending, which just isn't the case.

Or maybe they're talking about QE boosting the M2 aggregate, but that doesn't directly correlate to the actual cash in circulation.

Could be an anti-Keynesian type—probably leans more toward the Austrian school.

hollowdriver13 said:Well, it's not like China can just go out and start throwing punches at the West whenever they feel like it; you only had to look at how things kicked off earlier this year.

Their entire budget and national stability are built on this borderline insane GDP growth. Back in 2021, when Xi announced those economic reforms—trying to dial back the shark capitalism and lean more toward socialism—there was this massive exodus of capital from China. That automatically put the brakes on their economy, which led to all that "oh, we didn't mean it like that, it's business as usual" talk and them backing away from the reforms entirely.

But yeah, I totally agree that untangling these relationships would be incredibly painful for everyone involved. If anything, China would probably take a harder hit... so I guess the only real question is who has a higher tolerance for pain.

Ah, it's all relative. When China grows at 7%, heads roll. When we grow at 7%, people hand out medals and ribbons. It’s hard to say who would suffer more; again, it’s entirely relative.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, the West was already developed long before China started its massive climb to the top.

It’s not like Western greed and gluttony haven't played a part in creating some level of dependency on China, sure, but I see people here just throwing around nonsense claiming nothing gets manufactured in the West anymore. That is pure idiocy. There is still a massive amount of production happening in the West, and let's be real—the technical and digital expertise is still firmly rooted there too. Just look at the industrial and manufacturing output from places like Germany or the USA—it's still absolutely massive.

To be more precise, only certain Western countries still produce anything; others wouldn't even know how to make a matchstick anymore. Generally speaking, the West is trending downward while China trends upward, and this has been happening for decades. This trend needs to be broken, but how? Everyone knows the answer, but nobody wants to give up cheap labor—which brings us right back to greed and avarice.

Brenda Murphy3 said:You're tripping... seriously...

If we actually end up slapping sanctions on China (which, fingers crossed, won't happen), the West would probably handle that way easier than this absolute mess with Russia. Russia is vital to the European Union because of primary energy sources—stuff that is genuinely strategic and critical. China? They produce a ton of junk, sure, but they don't manufacture nearly as many things that are truly "strategic" for the West. Yeah, we buy mountains of cheap t-shirts and random crap made in China, but we aren't talking about high-stakes strategic assets in most cases.

Thinking that this whole situation is somehow a win for China is such a massive reach it's almost painful. What China actually wants is a fat, greedy West that keeps buying and buying more Chinese trinkets and nonsense, making us even more dependent on them (at least mentally, given how much stuff we rely on). Any drop in that consumption is bad news for China... it's not rocket science.

Actually, China stands to gain, and I see India benefiting too, since they'll get the chance to pick up Russian energy at a discount. What exactly does China lose from this Russia-Ukraine conflict?

It’s entirely possible we'll see China pivot away from the West if communism collapses—maybe nationalism becomes their new way of life. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised. They have the most advanced surveillance apparatus ever built, after all. History is full of precedents for this kind of thing in China, though it certainly wouldn't be a "good" change. Their aging population makes it even more likely—we're looking at potentially the most conservative political body in history within a few decades.

Siemens is pulling out of Russia after 170 years.

The German electronics giant Siemens is exiting Russia after about 170 years of business there, the latest in a long list of companies to pull out of the country since its invasion of Ukraine in February.

With a workforce of 3,000 people stationed in Russia, the firm announced this Thursday that it is systematically shutting down every single one of its industrial operations and business ventures. According to an accompanying financial statement, Siemens Said that in its second quarter, the fallout from Russian sanctions resulted in a staggering loss of 0.6 billion euros—which translates to roughly $625 million. Is anyone truly surprised by such a massive financial blow?

https://www.nytimes.com/2022/05/12/b...?smid=url-copy

Russia is basically sanctioning itself

https://www.euractiv.com/section/glo...ies-in-europe/

So, the Russian government just slapped sanctions on Gazprom's subsidiaries over in Europe, which pretty much means they can't use the Yamal pipeline through Poland anymore starting today.

Then, just two days ago, Ukraine shut down the Sokhranivka entry point because it's sitting right in the occupied part of the Luhansk Oblast. They've made it clear they aren't turning that section of the pipeline back on until they have full control again, mostly because the separatists are busy stealing gas instead of doing even the bare minimum of basic equipment maintenance.