Sanctions on Russia

Nancy Gomez26 said:The ones who weren't aligned with this regime fled—provided they had the financial means to afford an escape. Most of those left behind simply couldn't leave, even if they desperately wanted to. This aggressive faction fueled by state propaganda exists, certainly, but they represent far fewer people than it seems; they are simply the loudest. Everyone who opposes the war stays wisely silent, knowing their views could easily be used against them.

Anyone opposed to Putin or a system like this will continue to keep their heads down in silence.
Anyone who dares to speak up or take action will face either assassination or imprisonment.
The only times Americans have ever marched by the millions to topple a regime was when they were truly starving. It takes actual hunger to make a population finally raise its head.

George Robinson43 said:Anyone opposed to Putin or a system like this will continue to keep their heads down in silence.
Anyone who dares to speak up or take action will face either assassination or imprisonment.
The only times Americans have ever marched by the millions to topple a regime was when they were truly starving. It takes actual hunger to make a population finally raise its head.

Rebellion requires leadership—someone people actually trust. But right now, those leaders are being systematically neutralized, serving as a warning to anyone else thinking about revolting. It’s a calculated tactic that works until it hits a breaking point, a point we haven't reached yet. Look at Belarus; they have a similar regime there, and while they may have hit that threshold, the government still clings to power through foreign intervention.

The EU just agreed to ban two-thirds of their current Russian oil imports

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15313...Cz6aCEzcAqAAAA

And honestly, we’re just one step away from some serious retaliation from Russia. ExxonMobil is already cutting off gas supplies to the Netherlands because they wouldn't agree to pay in rubles.

View on twitter

Plus, it looks like JPMorgan Chase is finally getting kicked out of SWIFT.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/st...91901420638209

Arthur Miller7 said:Man, I don't even know how to respond to that. I literally just got back from Paris—there were like 70,000 Englishmen at the Champions League final, people were paying over $3,000 black-market for tickets! The city was absolutely packed with tourists. I live in Iceland and nobody's complaining; gas is around $2.20 and people are traveling like crazy. Iceland is chronically short on tourism workers—just the other day the news said we're missing 9,000 people... German cruise ships are rolling in every single day. Even in Dublin, the airport was pure chaos—people waiting three hours, over 1,000 people missing flights. To me, this doesn't sound like a crisis or poverty to me at all.

Germany and France—the industrial powerhouses—are actually the ones in deep trouble.

hollowdriver13 said:The EU just agreed to ban two-thirds of their current Russian oil imports

https://twitter.com/AFP/status/15313...Cz6aCEzcAqAAAA

And honestly, we’re just one step away from some serious retaliation from Russia. ExxonMobil is already cutting off gas supplies to the Netherlands because they wouldn't agree to pay in rubles.

View on twitter

Plus, it looks like JPMorgan Chase is finally getting kicked out of SWIFT.

https://twitter.com/eucopresident/st...91901420638209

European Gas Storage

Latest data on gas storage levels (May 29th)

EU 46.19 % (509 TWh)

Average consumption from Dec '21 to Feb '22 was roughly 6 TWh.

So, based on current reserves—assuming usage stays flat—Europe could potentially scrape by for more than 80 winter days.

Since we're filling up at a rate of about 0.4-0.5%, we can probably expect to hit ~80% capacity by mid-August '22. That should be enough to cover the fall/winter season even without relying on LNG or other sources—plus, hopefully, by next autumn '23, we'll have established new supply lines or found ways to cut back and pivot toward renewables.
By August or September '22, the EU might finally start detaching itself from Russian gas.

Germany’s got a bit of a situation here—Russia’s latest sanctions effectively blocked their own subsidiary in Germany. Astora is sitting at just 7% capacity, which means their main storage facility is basically bone dry. There's even a chance Germany might seize it, given their laws regarding minimum storage requirements.

Current storage levels for major consuming nations:

Poland 94.44 %

United Kingdom 92.21 %

Portugal 92.49 %

Spain 66.16 %

Czech Republic 61.68 %

Denmark 54.31 %

France 51.24 %

Italy 49.4 %

Germany 48.43 %

Latvia 40.25 %

Slovakia 38.81 %

Netherlands 36.69 %

Belgium 35.57 %

Austria 32 %

dustyowl29 said:Germany and France—the industrial powerhouses—are actually the ones in deep trouble.

Look, I’m telling you, I’m staring at two cruise ships right now packed with German tourists. Seriously, even before the pandemic, we wouldn't see two cruise ships a day hitting my city. Over in Paris, the cafes are absolutely swarmed with locals. People are traveling. Honestly, after being stuck in lockdown for two years, people just want to live their lives. They want to actually *do* things. Whether they'll start whining about everything in six months? Who knows. But right now? Nobody’s complaining. I mean, I see protests against the Russian aggression, sure, but I haven't seen anyone out there protesting the cost of living yet. We are nowhere near that "Western collapse" everyone keeps predicting.

The European Union apparently reached some kind of deal regarding the ban on Russian oil imports, though we’re still waiting on the specifics.
On top of that, there's the Sberbank exclusion from SWIFT and a ban on broadcasting three more Russian state TV channels.

rowdytiger13 said:The European Union apparently reached some kind of deal regarding the ban on Russian oil imports, though we’re still waiting on the specifics.
On top of that, there's the Sberbank exclusion from SWIFT and a ban on broadcasting three more Russian state TV channels.

There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

hollowdriver13 said:The dollar just took a massive hit, sliding from something like $1.20 down to maybe $1.10 in just forty-eight hours. That’s a pretty brutal drop for such a short window. You'd think after all the talk about how Russia managed to screw over the West—which supposedly would make our currency stronger than ever—we wouldn't be seeing this slide. So why is the value slipping again even with all these active measures in place? 🤔
It’s almost funny how those economic analysts who swore up and down that Russia could only hold their currency together for maybe three to six months are starting to look like they actually knew what they were talking about...

It’s happening because they eased capital controls and slashed that crucial interest rate following relentless complaints from local business owners.

I find it absolutely impossible to believe that the inflation rate in the European Union is sitting at 8%?! 😁
what a bunch of liars

As of today, we're looking at $125 a barrel

The dollar and oil are climbing while the dollar is sliding—all thanks to the news that the European Union is halting its Russian oil purchases.
The Euro is nothing more than an artificial bubble.

wiredseal7 said:There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

Flight tickets are still sitting there at 10 bucks. If they stop flying, they stop flying. People will just figure it out somehow.

wiredseal7 said:There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

We heard this exact same song and dance when the Russian aggression first started. Everyone was panicking about tourism collapsing, inflation spiking, and gas prices soaring—there’s an entire thread on this forum dedicated to it. And yet, look at us now; the streets are practically overflowing with tourists.☕

wiredseal7 said:There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

Yeah, you can bet people won't be driving for their annual vacations.
Actually, maybe more people will opt for flying, though I'm not sure why they didn't jump on that sooner—unless you count the environmentalists and their whole "save the planet" thing.

Adria Company remains operational, ensuring energy flows to Germany and Poland.
It’s worth noting that the Swabians were actually the first ones to quietly accept those Russian payment terms.
The Americans in Poland, who usually make the most noise about standing up to Russia, are now hypocritically bragging about cutting off Russian gas, when in reality they're just using what they call "German" gas. It doesn't exist—it's just Germans rerouting Russian supply.

The real question is what happens when certain EU countries realize they're paying a massive premium compared to those still playing ball with Russia.

Once this war finally wraps up, everything will just slide right back to how it was—because at the end of the day, money talks.
Buy low, sell high. It’s that simple.
Otherwise, we'd have to go out and actually cut, armor, or blow up those pipelines coming out of places like Ukraine or Belarus. Now *that* would be a genuine move to ditch Russian oil once and for all. But let's be real—even if we did, things would probably "fix" themselves pretty quickly. This whole thing? Just games within games...

steelfox98 said:Adria Company remains operational, ensuring energy flows to Germany and Poland.
It’s worth noting that the Swabians were actually the first ones to quietly accept those Russian payment terms.
The Americans in Poland, who usually make the most noise about standing up to Russia, are now hypocritically bragging about cutting off Russian gas, when in reality they're just using what they call "German" gas. It doesn't exist—it's just Germans rerouting Russian supply.

The real question is what happens when certain EU countries realize they're paying a massive premium compared to those still playing ball with Russia.

When ExxonMobil cut them off, the volume of "German" gas coming in was essentially identical to what they used to get from Russia. So, there is some merit to your point.

That said, during this current month, the Pipeline was opened up with an annual capacity of 1.9 bcm. That definitely makes them less dependent. It’s not as if Americans are completely clueless—their storage capacity levels are currently the highest in the European Union... I wonder how that compares to Germany's 🙂?

Michael Ortiz68 said:When ExxonMobil cut them off, the volume of "German" gas coming in was essentially identical to what they used to get from Russia. So, there is some merit to your point.

That said, during this current month, the Pipeline was opened up with an annual capacity of 1.9 bcm. That definitely makes them less dependent. It’s not as if Americans are completely clueless—their storage capacity levels are currently the highest in the European Union... I wonder how that compares to Germany's 🙂?

Their storage levels were simply whatever the bosses in Moscow dictated they should be.
When it comes to Germany, it's all about the SPD. It's all about those little pushovers. 😉

The Americans couldn't care less. In just a few months, they'll be done with Russia forever. Meanwhile, Scholz and the rest of those Russian puppets have to pray to God every single day that Ukraine just gives up.

The folks over in Poland are sticking to coal and honestly, they couldn't care less about gas prices. They’ve actually managed to keep their electricity costs way lower than almost everyone else in the European Union during those times when gas prices absolutely skyrocket and take power bills with them.
By the way, both the Poles and the Germans have been talking big about voluntarily shutting down that pipeline coming from Belarus—you know, the same one that feeds into their refineries from the port.

It's all just part of a coordinated game designed to let them change their minds later on. Once oil hits over $200 a barrel, you can bet they'll be looking for any excuse to flip the switch and reopen those pipelines again.

rowdytiger13 said:The European Union apparently reached some kind of deal regarding the ban on Russian oil imports, though we’re still waiting on the specifics.
On top of that, there's the Sberbank exclusion from SWIFT and a ban on broadcasting three more Russian state TV channels.

Nothing's changing before the year wraps up.

2023 is basically being labeled as a transition year. In plain English? That means we’re looking at about six more months of absolutely nothing happening—then maybe things start moving.

wiredseal7 said:There were whispers that this doesn't apply to the pipelines—probably just Orban's way of playing hardball.

For us, this summer is going to be a real riot. Since we're basically a major road-trip destination here in the States, current gas prices are already going to wreck us. I'm not sure if they're pulling the trigger now or at the end of the year, but even the mere threat of these measures sends pump prices climbing ahead of time.
Man, you have to wonder who's actually running this sad little Union...

With Viktor Orbán, it’s kind of wild—everyone's out there publicly dragging him, but behind closed doors? Most leaders are actually low-key relieved he's around. He basically plays the bad guy so they don't have to. He steps up, says the stuff nobody else dares to say, and lets them keep playing their "perfectly polite" roles. It's pretty much a classic setup, right?