Sanctions on Russia

The German economy is starting to lose its heat, showing zero percent growth quarter-over-quarter. ☕

Nathan Evans78 said:The German economy is starting to lose its heat, showing zero percent growth quarter-over-quarter. ☕

It’s honestly no shocker that they're short about 1.7 million workers.
Over half of all companies in Germany can't find enough staff to fill their roles.
I guess a massive wave of Ukrainians and even some Russians will show up soon to fix everything, so no need to worry.

gentlestag15 said:It’s honestly no shocker that they're short about 1.7 million workers.
Over half of all companies in Germany can't find enough staff to fill their roles.
I guess a massive wave of Ukrainians and even some Russians will show up soon to fix everything, so no need to worry.

Oh, come on, don't feed me this stuff. Ever since I was born, Germany has been short by at least a few million workers. Has it occurred to you that in this information age, anyone who isn't absolutely desperate isn't going to jump at a minimum wage job involving 240 hours of manual labor a month? You actually end up with more cash in your pocket staying on social security—especially if you have kids to support—than you would washing dishes along the Autobahn. Bad jobs have always existed; honestly, we had them right here in America back in the early 2010s too. I'm not sitting here mourning the fate of Germany; I'm pointing out that thanks to the law of unintended consequences, we're also stuck in a tight spot if the engine of the European Union industry stops generating high value-added growth. ☕

Nathan Evans78 said:Oh, come on, don't feed me this stuff. Ever since I was born, Germany has been short by at least a few million workers. Has it occurred to you that in this information age, anyone who isn't absolutely desperate isn't going to jump at a minimum wage job involving 240 hours of manual labor a month? You actually end up with more cash in your pocket staying on social security—especially if you have kids to support—than you would washing dishes along the Autobahn. Bad jobs have always existed; honestly, we had them right here in America back in the early 2010s too. I'm not sitting here mourning the fate of Germany; I'm pointing out that thanks to the law of unintended consequences, we're also stuck in a tight spot if the engine of the European Union industry stops generating high value-added growth. ☕

Germany saw a 5% dip back in 2020 because of COVID-19. Looking at things now, I can't help but wonder if we're all just heading toward the same kind of collapse, or if maybe that's just an overstatement.
Honestly, give it a rest with all this doom and gloom about upcoming catastrophes. Just stop it.

Nathan Evans78 said:Oh, come on, don't feed me this stuff. Ever since I was born, Germany has been short by at least a few million workers. Has it occurred to you that in this information age, anyone who isn't absolutely desperate isn't going to jump at a minimum wage job involving 240 hours of manual labor a month? You actually end up with more cash in your pocket staying on social security—especially if you have kids to support—than you would washing dishes along the Autobahn. Bad jobs have always existed; honestly, we had them right here in America back in the early 2010s too. I'm not sitting here mourning the fate of Germany; I'm pointing out that thanks to the law of unintended consequences, we're also stuck in a tight spot if the engine of the European Union industry stops generating high value-added growth. ☕

I don't feel sorry for them at all. For decades, their entire strategy has been to suck up all the skilled talent from less wealthy nations, which effectively prevents those countries from ever truly developing. They really need to dial back this economic megalomania of theirs...

crimsoncyclist71 said:Are you following him through Canadian media and Facebook, or are you actually sure about what you're claiming?
Mind dropping his Facebook profile link here so we can see for ourselves?
Thanks.

Here is the profile:https://www.facebook.com/szijjarto.peter.official

rowdyraven112 said:So, when most of us objectively said that sanctions wouldn't do much good for the economy or the market, we were labeled Putinophiles, right? And remember how everyone claimed the European Union would quickly replace everything they used to import from Russia? I said it wouldn't happen that fast. Well, we just confirmed that the OPEC countries—who people like you claimed would save the European Union economy—are actually just greedy war profiteers on par with Vladimir Putin. ☕

You know what’s peak stupidity? When half the Western-leaning posters shouted "I told you so" after the Russian invasion of Ukraine. Give me a break. You think you're CIA level because you "knew" Russia was going to invade while only Joe Biden was warning them and nobody else? ☕

Look, I'll admit it: I was one of the few calling it straight from the start—that Vladimir Putin is a calculating bastard and that Russia invaded Ukraine. But suggesting we cut them out of global trade without any calculation or analysis? That’s about as smart as a Vlade Vukojević thesis at a community college in Indianapolis. ☕

Take fruit and vegetable farmers in the Midwest, for example, whose products mostly went to Eastern markets. They already had issues back in 2014 with the Russian occupation of Crimea, so they managed by selling to middlemen in other countries who then flipped the produce for a higher price. Now, they'll be forced to sell below cost to war profiteers in OPEC nations, who will then flip it again at an even higher price for the Russian market. What's the result? You destroy local family farms. Our domestic population isn't big enough to buy up all the production, even if we ate nothing but tomatoes, melons, tangerines, and oranges all day long. Lower prices lead to less production, fewer jobs, and shut-down operations. Once production dies, there's no god alive who can easily restart it. We saw this during the COVID crisis when lockdowns hit and oil and gas wells were shut down because demand plummeted. As soon as things returned to normal, gas prices spiked—not because there wasn't enough supply, but because everyone started demanding massive amounts at once. Restarting a well isn't some trivial task. Ask any mining engineer. ☕

As for the posters defending the other side, I'm just fascinated by your "doctorates" from community colleges in Indianapolis and the absolute nonsense that comes out of them. ☕

Look, I’m a petroleum engineer and a former ExxonMobil employee, so what you're saying just isn't right.

In most cases, starting up or shutting down wells is absolutely no big deal. You literally just close the valves on the wellhead equipment and production stops dead. In oil and gas fields, there are tons of wells tied directly into production facilities where all the gas, oil, and water get separated. So, in an area like Ivanica, you've got maybe 100 oil wells, then around 80 in Bilogora, and the Midwest has plenty too—these are actual oil fields. Then you've got about 20 gas condensate wells in the Midwest. We track the production parameters for every single individual well, so we know exactly how much oil, gas, condensate (gasoline), and water each one is spitting out... which means it's incredibly easy to scale back production by, say, 20% just by shutting in the specific wells that make up that 20% of the total output.

This applies to, I'd say... 98% of wells. Out of 100 wells, you might have one or two that have unstable formations where suddenly closing or opening them could cause the layers to collapse, or they might hit a water zone and you end up getting more water than gas, or a column of water starts choking the well. If the hydrostatic pressure in a 3.5" tubing at a depth of 4200m exceeds the dynamic pressure of the well, it goes dead. But even then, you can lighten the column with nitrogen until it kicks back in, perform some stimulation above or below the collapse point, or move the packer closer to the producing zone. Basically, those kinds of wells are rare, and you don't mess with them.

But seriously, you can open or close more than 98% of wells without any fallout whatsoever. All that oil and gas is still going to be there once you reopen the well; it isn't going anywhere. Except for that tiny 1% where you run the risk of collapsing the formation.

Right now in America, you could shut down 99% of production across all fields in less than four hours. And you could turn it all back on the next day without any issues.

Also, I know from firsthand experience that back in the day, people used to fill gas station tanks with water, or more commonly, gasoline derived from production wells. They'd basically take regular gas out of the tank and top it off with condensate. That was like 15 or more years ago though; things have changed a lot since then, and I am 100% sure that doesn't happen anymore. I pump my own fuel at ExxonMobil myself.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Are you following him through Canadian media and Facebook, or are you actually sure about what you're claiming?
Mind dropping his Facebook profile link here so we can see for ourselves?
Thanks.

Actually, that’s just the Canadian fellow who spoke to the American media.
He suggested that their coverage regarding Canada should be handled in that specific manner.
That's exactly how he puts it! 😉

Joshua Bishop3 said:Look, I’m a petroleum engineer and a former ExxonMobil employee, so what you're saying just isn't right.

In most cases, starting up or shutting down wells is absolutely no big deal. You literally just close the valves on the wellhead equipment and production stops dead. In oil and gas fields, there are tons of wells tied directly into production facilities where all the gas, oil, and water get separated. So, in an area like Ivanica, you've got maybe 100 oil wells, then around 80 in Bilogora, and the Midwest has plenty too—these are actual oil fields. Then you've got about 20 gas condensate wells in the Midwest. We track the production parameters for every single individual well, so we know exactly how much oil, gas, condensate (gasoline), and water each one is spitting out... which means it's incredibly easy to scale back production by, say, 20% just by shutting in the specific wells that make up that 20% of the total output.

This applies to, I'd say... 98% of wells. Out of 100 wells, you might have one or two that have unstable formations where suddenly closing or opening them could cause the layers to collapse, or they might hit a water zone and you end up getting more water than gas, or a column of water starts choking the well. If the hydrostatic pressure in a 3.5" tubing at a depth of 4200m exceeds the dynamic pressure of the well, it goes dead. But even then, you can lighten the column with nitrogen until it kicks back in, perform some stimulation above or below the collapse point, or move the packer closer to the producing zone. Basically, those kinds of wells are rare, and you don't mess with them.

But seriously, you can open or close more than 98% of wells without any fallout whatsoever. All that oil and gas is still going to be there once you reopen the well; it isn't going anywhere. Except for that tiny 1% where you run the risk of collapsing the formation.

Right now in America, you could shut down 99% of production across all fields in less than four hours. And you could turn it all back on the next day without any issues.

Also, I know from firsthand experience that back in the day, people used to fill gas station tanks with water, or more commonly, gasoline derived from production wells. They'd basically take regular gas out of the tank and top it off with condensate. That was like 15 or more years ago though; things have changed a lot since then, and I am 100% sure that doesn't happen anymore. I pump my own fuel at ExxonMobil myself.

That is the reality of our wells. But does anyone have data or info regarding the status of the gas fields in Russia, which supply gas and oil to the European Union? Are those fields also the type where production can be easily toggled on and off, or must the flow remain constant? What is the situation with the pipelines in Russia—can the flow through them be stopped and restarted without issue, or is it a complex process? There was some talk that Russians cannot simply shut down production at their gas and oil fields; I'm curious how much truth there is to that.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That is the reality of our wells. But does anyone have data or info regarding the status of the gas fields in Russia, which supply gas and oil to the European Union? Are those fields also the type where production can be easily toggled on and off, or must the flow remain constant? What is the situation with the pipelines in Russia—can the flow through them be stopped and restarted without issue, or is it a complex process? There was some talk that Russians cannot simply shut down production at their gas and oil fields; I'm curious how much truth there is to that.

Honestly, man, I don't know the exact specifics regarding their individual wells, but I'm pretty sure it's the same situation we deal with here in the States. You can open and close oil wells whenever you feel like it. As for gas, 99% of the time you can just turn them on or off without any major fallout. Gas wells are usually way deeper, like 4000+ meters, and yeah, sometimes there's a risk of the geological layers collapsing. But that danger usually pops up if you try to do sudden, aggressive openings that cause the layer to cave in, pull in water, or suck up sand... basically just messing up the whole reservoir the gas is being pulled from.

The way oil moves through something like the NS1 setup is that there's just one compressor station pushing that gas at maybe 220 bar toward Europe. Even looking at that, I don't see a huge issue with stopping and starting. They probably just ramp the pressure up in stages, and while it might take a little bit of time for the station to run its sequence and build that pressure back up, I really don't see that being a dealbreaker. They likely keep some residual pressure trapped in the pipeline when they shut down so they don't have to pump everything 746 miles up to 220 bar all at once, but I'm telling you, with enough planning, that shouldn't be an issue, and I'm sure they've got a solid playbook for how to cycle that compressor station on and off.

Look, take ExxonMobil as an example—they shut down their production stations for maintenance every single year between July and September. It usually lasts about a week, where they basically seal off all the wells, take the load off the stations, and run through all the necessary servicing and inspections. Once that's wrapped up, they just bring the wells back online one by one.

So honestly, there is absolutely zero issue here.
The only exception is those few specific wells where there’s actually a risk of the strata collapsing; in those cases, they pull them out of production and hook them up to a mobile separator or just flare the gas during that window. But I'm telling you, we're talking about maybe 1-2% of the total.

As for this whole nonsense about how once you shut a well down, you can't restart it because the gas somehow "spoils"... please, that is straight-up fairy tale stuff for toddlers.

Joshua Bishop3 said:Look, take ExxonMobil as an example—they shut down their production stations for maintenance every single year between July and September. It usually lasts about a week, where they basically seal off all the wells, take the load off the stations, and run through all the necessary servicing and inspections. Once that's wrapped up, they just bring the wells back online one by one.

So honestly, there is absolutely zero issue here.
The only exception is those few specific wells where there’s actually a risk of the strata collapsing; in those cases, they pull them out of production and hook them up to a mobile separator or just flare the gas during that window. But I'm telling you, we're talking about maybe 1-2% of the total.

As for this whole nonsense about how once you shut a well down, you can't restart it because the gas somehow "spoils"... please, that is straight-up fairy tale stuff for toddlers.

👍 👍

It is refreshing to finally see a few expert, intelligent posts on this topic instead of just the constant trolling that usually dominates this thread.
Once again, 👍

I actually have a former classmate from my engineering days who spent his entire career working for ExxonMobil, both domestically and all over the world. We haven't caught up in quite a while, but he used to describe things in a very similar way to what you're saying here.
Regarding the other matter, I won't speculate much, but it's becoming increasingly obvious just how "successful" these sanctions are proving to be and who is ultimately going to end up feeling the squeeze.

urbanotter said:👍 👍

It is refreshing to finally see a few expert, intelligent posts on this topic instead of just the constant trolling that usually dominates this thread.
Once again, 👍

I actually have a former classmate from my engineering days who spent his entire career working for ExxonMobil, both domestically and all over the world. We haven't caught up in quite a while, but he used to describe things in a very similar way to what you're saying here.
Regarding the other matter, I won't speculate much, but it's becoming increasingly obvious just how "successful" these sanctions are proving to be and who is ultimately going to end up feeling the squeeze.

Come on, please, just let us in on the secret—who exactly is going to go broke in the "decaying" West? I mean, the Russians won't starve, but they're looking like a lost cause for the next fifty years, even if the war stops tomorrow and they pull back from Crimea and all of Ukraine. Russia is basically sliding right back into those early 90s vibes when the USSR collapsed. I remember that era pretty clearly because I actually had some serious business leads and contacts over there back then. I could have built a massive company here in the States just exporting to Russia since the market was absolutely starving for goods. I didn't pull the trigger, though, mostly because everything was such a mess and the Russian mafia was just starting to take shape 😁. It feels like we're seeing a sequel now, only the chaos and disorder will be way worse because the mafia is already established and deeply embedded in their government and social structures. I'm guessing Russia is headed for a "BIG BANG"... an internal collapse where everything just falls apart like a house of cards. Putin lit the fuse, and now we're just waiting for the bomb to go off.

And who exactly is going to be left to feel the heat from those HIMARS?😁

Chloe Nguyen21 said:Come on, please, just let us in on the secret—who exactly is going to go broke in the "decaying" West? I mean, the Russians won't starve, but they're looking like a lost cause for the next fifty years, even if the war stops tomorrow and they pull back from Crimea and all of Ukraine. Russia is basically sliding right back into those early 90s vibes when the USSR collapsed. I remember that era pretty clearly because I actually had some serious business leads and contacts over there back then. I could have built a massive company here in the States just exporting to Russia since the market was absolutely starving for goods. I didn't pull the trigger, though, mostly because everything was such a mess and the Russian mafia was just starting to take shape 😁. It feels like we're seeing a sequel now, only the chaos and disorder will be way worse because the mafia is already established and deeply embedded in their government and social structures. I'm guessing Russia is headed for a "BIG BANG"... an internal collapse where everything just falls apart like a house of cards. Putin lit the fuse, and now we're just waiting for the bomb to go off.

I honestly think it might be time to send your crystal ball in for repairs or just buy a new one. This one seems to be glitching just like the Russian gas supply—one minute it's working, the next it isn't, and the Russians certainly don't mind playing those games.
You mentioned you could have started a business there but passed because of the instability.

From what I can see, things aren't much better on our side; plenty of people rushed to open businesses in Russia, only to be forced to shut them down once the sanctions hit.
I hear some people are still paying to keep their shell companies alive, just hoping they can get back to business as usual someday.
I ran into Usmijani the other day, and he was just shaking his head; I couldn't tell if he was frustrated or just stunned, especially since he made such a huge investment to expand his footprint in the Russian market
But hey, someone stirred up the chaos, and now we're left wondering if his company will remain a leader in the industry like it has been in recent years.

Well, there's no doubt about it—Putin is responsible for everything; he actually "confessed" that to a group of students one day.😉

And honestly, you can't blame anyone for staying cautious; you don't just jump headfirst into a situation involving that kind of organized crime. Better to stay home.😁

Chloe Nguyen21 said:Come on, please, just let us in on the secret—who exactly is going to go broke in the "decaying" West? I mean, the Russians won't starve, but they're looking like a lost cause for the next fifty years, even if the war stops tomorrow and they pull back from Crimea and all of Ukraine. Russia is basically sliding right back into those early 90s vibes when the USSR collapsed. I remember that era pretty clearly because I actually had some serious business leads and contacts over there back then. I could have built a massive company here in the States just exporting to Russia since the market was absolutely starving for goods. I didn't pull the trigger, though, mostly because everything was such a mess and the Russian mafia was just starting to take shape 😁. It feels like we're seeing a sequel now, only the chaos and disorder will be way worse because the mafia is already established and deeply embedded in their government and social structures. I'm guessing Russia is headed for a "BIG BANG"... an internal collapse where everything just falls apart like a house of cards. Putin lit the fuse, and now we're just waiting for the bomb to go off.

I really think it might be time to get your crystal ball serviced or just buy a new one. That thing seems to be malfunctioning just like the Russian gas supply—it works sporadically, and the Russians don't seem to mind playing games with it
. You mentioned you could have started a business over there if it wasn't for the chaos
.
From where I'm sitting, things aren't exactly better here, and plenty of people happily opened businesses in Russia only to be forced to shut them down due to the sanctions
. I hear some people are still paying to keep their shell companies active, just hoping they can resume business as usual someday
. I ran into Smiley the other day; he was just shaking his head, and I couldn't tell if he was frustrated or just stunned after committing to a huge investment intended to expand his footprint in the Russian market
. But hey, someone stirred up the chaos, and now we have to wonder if his company will remain a top player in the US like it has been in recent years
.
Oh, without a doubt, Putin is responsible for everything; I heard he basically admitted that to a group of students one day 😉
.
Neo, you can sleep soundly knowing you didn't dive headfirst into that local mafia scene; you're staying close to home 😁
.

urbanotter said:👍 👍

It is refreshing to finally see a few expert, intelligent posts on this topic instead of just the constant trolling that usually dominates this thread.
Once again, 👍

I actually have a former classmate from my engineering days who spent his entire career working for ExxonMobil, both domestically and all over the world. We haven't caught up in quite a while, but he used to describe things in a very similar way to what you're saying here.
Regarding the other matter, I won't speculate much, but it's becoming increasingly obvious just how "successful" these sanctions are proving to be and who is ultimately going to end up feeling the squeeze.

Just because Russia can shut off the valves and they aren't going to let their gas and oil just rot away doesn't mean the rest of the sanctions won't hit them hard.

They are basically a petrostate, period—like, 40% of their total revenue comes straight from gas. Now, China and India are totally taking advantage of them by snapping up cheap oil and gas, and Europe used to be their absolute best customer. If Russia loses Europe as a buyer, they are going to suffer way, way more than Europe will.

Look, the Russians aren't going to be starving or thirsty because of sanctions. But without access to Western tech, they are basically being pushed fifty years back in time. No country today can function like an island or just go it alone because you simply cannot produce everything yourself anymore. And who are they even going to form alliances with now? India? Or China, who is already planning to swallow up their territory? Honestly, China will tear them apart long before the West does.

But still... Russia won't collapse entirely, but they are definitely hitting reverse gear big time. It won't be easy for the "collective" West either—we’re all going to take a hit because of these sanctions—but Russia is going to get hit way, way harder.

urbanotter said:I honestly think it might be time to send your crystal ball in for repairs or just buy a new one. This one seems to be glitching just like the Russian gas supply—one minute it's working, the next it isn't, and the Russians certainly don't mind playing those games.
You mentioned you could have started a business there but passed because of the instability.

From what I can see, things aren't much better on our side; plenty of people rushed to open businesses in Russia, only to be forced to shut them down once the sanctions hit.
I hear some people are still paying to keep their shell companies alive, just hoping they can get back to business as usual someday.
I ran into Usmijani the other day, and he was just shaking his head; I couldn't tell if he was frustrated or just stunned, especially since he made such a huge investment to expand his footprint in the Russian market
But hey, someone stirred up the chaos, and now we're left wondering if his company will remain a leader in the industry like it has been in recent years.

Well, there's no doubt about it—Putin is responsible for everything; he actually "confessed" that to a group of students one day.😉

And honestly, you can't blame anyone for staying cautious; you don't just jump headfirst into a situation involving that kind of organized crime. Better to stay home.😁

In Russia, doing business became untenable long before the sanctions actually hit. Putin decided to purge foreign players from the country much earlier by imposing various restrictions and heavy obligations. Compared to this, the mafia rule of the 90s was child's play. People simply packed up and left; it wasn't worth enduring the headache. A few major corporations remained, but for the people running them, living in such an environment was no longer remotely tolerable compared to what it once was.

I am increasingly convinced that this isolation of the Russian Federation by the West plays right into the hands of the current leadership. In fact, Putin began working on isolating Russia from the outside world long before this conflict erupted—just look at the attempts to cut Russia off from the internet, which proved more difficult than anticipated, or the systematic expulsion of foreigners. Now, the West is inadvertently executing his plan. This isolation is a gift to him; it makes wide-scale "ideological conditioning" and population control significantly easier. For his specific mindset, mass indoctrination is a necessity, as such policies could never be implemented nearly as effectively in a democratic, open society. Combine ideological manipulation with an efficient repressive apparatus and enough time, and you can do whatever you want. If that situation could be leveraged for the national good, that would be ideal, but in this case, I doubt that will happen.

urbanotter said:I really think it might be time to get your crystal ball serviced or just buy a new one. That thing seems to be malfunctioning just like the Russian gas supply—it works sporadically, and the Russians don't seem to mind playing games with it
. You mentioned you could have started a business over there if it wasn't for the chaos
.
From where I'm sitting, things aren't exactly better here, and plenty of people happily opened businesses in Russia only to be forced to shut them down due to the sanctions
. I hear some people are still paying to keep their shell companies active, just hoping they can resume business as usual someday
. I ran into Smiley the other day; he was just shaking his head, and I couldn't tell if he was frustrated or just stunned after committing to a huge investment intended to expand his footprint in the Russian market
. But hey, someone stirred up the chaos, and now we have to wonder if his company will remain a top player in the US like it has been in recent years
.
Oh, without a doubt, Putin is responsible for everything; I heard he basically admitted that to a group of students one day 😉
.
Neo, you can sleep soundly knowing you didn't dive headfirst into that local mafia scene; you're staying close to home 😁
.

Things went pretty well for Putin when he first took over, but then, maybe because of old age, the guy started thinking he was some kind of king. That’s really the core issue right there.
Capital and business move to where things are stable. Russia isn't going to be that place for at least the next 50 years, or so I figure. I mean, what kind of idiot would invest there? It feels like we're looking at a Venezuelan situation... a country loaded with energy resources while most people struggle through poverty.
The West will find a way to replace Russian energy pretty easily. It'll probably be sorted out by next year. Meanwhile, it'll take Russia years to even build out a gas network toward Asia, where they'll end up selling gas at discounted rates, just like how they're doing with oil now.
You didn't really answer the question of who in the West is going to go hungry without Russia... let me help you out... nobody. Specifically here in the States, in my field (mechanical engineering), this year has been a record-breaker. My kids say the same thing about their jobs in IT and Pharmacy; everyone in the US and the rest of the European Union is working themselves to the bone. The Russian economy is basically a dwarf that nobody is going to miss. I guess the Germans will complain for another six months or so, and then that'll be that.

So, those folks over at Yale are out here claiming that the Russian economy is, if I may be blunt, completely and utterly trashed because of all these sanctions. Now, it really makes you wonder who you're supposed to take at their word: should we listen to the "experts" and economists who make this their entire career, or should we trust the people on the street who seem to know that these sanctions aren't actually doing much to Russia—and even if they are, they're mostly just hitting the West where it hurts?
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....act_id=4167193