Sanctions on Russia

electricsurfer47 said:Buy something in Russia and smuggle it out? What about buying gold???

Well, sure you can, assuming the Russians even let foreigners buy gold with rubles. If they do, you just tuck the gold in your underwear so customs doesn't catch you smuggling it out of Russia, since it's hit by Western sanctions. Just make sure you budget at least $3,000 for travel and hotels.
If you're resourceful enough, anything is possible—you just gotta find a way to get rid of that trash currency.

William Miller12 said:Decent BBC interview with one of the authors behind that Yale report regarding the impact of sanctions on Russia.

A few takeaways worth noting:
- Since the war started, the Russians have stopped publishing—or simply faked—general economic data. To get a clear picture of what's actually happening, you have to dig much deeper using various secondary sources.
- Russia can't just swap their lost gas exports to the European Union for shipments to China or India; they don't have the pipeline capacity to make that happen.
- Russian oil (the Urals type) is trading at about a $30 discount compared to Brent and WTI. So, even if people claim the sanctions aren't working because "middlemen" are profiting from reselling the oil, the sanctions still sting because the Russians are getting less per barrel regardless.
- Shipping costs for them are significantly higher when sending oil to India or China—we're talking 30+ days by tanker instead of the usual 2 to 7 days.
- Indian oil storage is currently topped off, so we’ll likely see a dip in imports from India soon.
- There's plenty of other interesting stuff regarding other sectors of their economy too...

Here are two shorter videos based on that same Yale report:

___

What kind of "Yale report" are we even talking about? What does Yale even represent in this context?

The all-knowing z-eye surely knows the true state of things.

The Western sanctions imposed on Moscow due to the invasion of Ukraine are failing to work and will not harm Russia, but they have certainly harmed us, stated President Zoran Milanović during his visit to Martha's Vineyard.

Describing the global situation as "unstable" and asserting that "we are slowly losing our compass," the head of state warned that "the whole thing looks like a dandelion in the wind, where you just pray to God that nobody sneezes, lest the whole thing blows away."

"I have been saying this since day one; I am sorry that I was right."

gentlestag15 said:Honestly, anyone outside of Russia holding onto rubles can basically just set them on fire at this point
or try to find some way to funnel them back into Russia and blow through them just to get rid of that junk.

Honestly, you should just gather all that cash up and use it to pay for gas instead. And I mean using the official exchange rate set by the Russian government itself. It basically ends up being free money at that point. They were the ones insisting everything be paid in rubles and they were the ones setting the rate. So, there you go. Talk about a self-inflicted wound.

hiddeneagle98 said:Honestly, you should just gather all that cash up and use it to pay for gas instead. And I mean using the official exchange rate set by the Russian government itself. It basically ends up being free money at that point. They were the ones insisting everything be paid in rubles and they were the ones setting the rate. So, there you go. Talk about a self-inflicted wound.

Honestly, I bet we’d find more dollars floating around Europe carried in tourists' pockets than there is actual ruble currency left. 😁

Obviously, the gas is being paid for in dollars, not rubles.
Basically, the whole thing goes through Gazprombank—the foreign buyer drops dollars into a specific account, then the bank handles the exchange from dollars to rubles before moving those rubles over to Gazprom's account. At the end of the day, the Russians get their hands on the dollars, which is what they actually care about. The whole "pay in rubles" stunt is just a clever way for them to squeeze out as many dollars as possible.

Aircraft cannibalization is officially underway

Exclusive: Russia begins stripping commercial jets for parts as sanctions take their toll

Moscow, Aug 8 (Reuters) - According to four industry insiders speaking to Reuters, American-made and foreign-built airlines in Russia—including the state-run Aeroflot (AFLT.MM)—have started dismantling certain jetliners just to harvest the spare parts they can no longer source internationally due to the heavy sanctions from the West.

These moves actually align perfectly with the guidance the Russian government handed out back in June, basically telling airlines to start using some of their fleet as "parts donors" to make sure the rest of those foreign-made planes stay in the air through at least 2025.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...te-2022-08-08/

Nathan Thomas12 said:Obviously, the gas is being paid for in dollars, not rubles.
Basically, the whole thing goes through Gazprombank—the foreign buyer drops dollars into a specific account, then the bank handles the exchange from dollars to rubles before moving those rubles over to Gazprom's account. At the end of the day, the Russians get their hands on the dollars, which is what they actually care about. The whole "pay in rubles" stunt is just a clever way for them to squeeze out as many dollars as possible.

Exactly. When the unit price is set in rubles but you're paying at the register in dollars, you aren't just dealing with the sticker price; you're dealing with whatever exchange rate they decide to apply. The price is likely pegged in contracts against other benchmarks, but the rate at which a Russian bank swaps those dollars for rubles is under Kremlin control. If this wasn't already baked into the existing contracts, it represents a fundamental shift in how business is conducted.

Carl Lee27 said:Aircraft cannibalization is officially underway

Exclusive: Russia begins stripping commercial jets for parts as sanctions take their toll

Moscow, Aug 8 (Reuters) - According to four industry insiders speaking to Reuters, American-made and foreign-built airlines in Russia—including the state-run Aeroflot (AFLT.MM)—have started dismantling certain jetliners just to harvest the spare parts they can no longer source internationally due to the heavy sanctions from the West.

These moves actually align perfectly with the guidance the Russian government handed out back in June, basically telling airlines to start using some of their fleet as "parts donors" to make sure the rest of those foreign-made planes stay in the air through at least 2025.

https://www.reuters.com/business/aer...te-2022-08-08/

It was predictable. But this can't last forever—not as a reliable source for spare parts. First, they'll run out of consumables, assuming they didn't stockpile them beforehand. On one aviation forum, there was significant skepticism regarding whether certain components could actually be manufactured domestically in the US. Take carbon brake linings, for instance; only a handful of companies globally possess the capability to produce them. Tires are similarly critical, though perhaps those could realistically be manufactured within the US. As for repairing modern jet engines? That’s impossible without original parts. If domestic production of such tech were actually viable, the entire aviation landscape would look very different.

Nancy Gomez26 said:It was predictable. But this can't last forever—not as a reliable source for spare parts. First, they'll run out of consumables, assuming they didn't stockpile them beforehand. On one aviation forum, there was significant skepticism regarding whether certain components could actually be manufactured domestically in the US. Take carbon brake linings, for instance; only a handful of companies globally possess the capability to produce them. Tires are similarly critical, though perhaps those could realistically be manufactured within the US. As for repairing modern jet engines? That’s impossible without original parts. If domestic production of such tech were actually viable, the entire aviation landscape would look very different.

It isn't just about being able to manufacture a replacement part. To actually use it, the manufacturer has to be on the official Airbus or Boeing approved list. If you can't track the entire history of a component—even something as simple as a nut from start to finish—with every single supplier in the chain being certified, then the plane is basically grounded. Plus, you need certified, highly trained technicians to handle the maintenance. Otherwise, no aviation safety agency is going to allow a plane like that into their airspace. That’s exactly why they’re resorting to cannibalizing old planes.
Just because the Russian authorities might let them fly under pressure from the Kremlin doesn't mean anything; it just means those planes will probably be stuck circling around within Russia soon enough.

hollowdriver13 said:It isn't just about being able to manufacture a replacement part. To actually use it, the manufacturer has to be on the official Airbus or Boeing approved list. If you can't track the entire history of a component—even something as simple as a nut from start to finish—with every single supplier in the chain being certified, then the plane is basically grounded. Plus, you need certified, highly trained technicians to handle the maintenance. Otherwise, no aviation safety agency is going to allow a plane like that into their airspace. That’s exactly why they’re resorting to cannibalizing old planes.
Just because the Russian authorities might let them fly under pressure from the Kremlin doesn't mean anything; it just means those planes will probably be stuck circling around within Russia soon enough.

Honestly, I guess Boeing certifications or being on some approved list in the US or Europe don't even matter to them right now. They don't care. The only thing that actually matters to them is whether or not they can physically get the job done.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Honestly, I guess Boeing certifications or being on some approved list in the US or Europe don't even matter to them right now. They don't care. The only thing that actually matters to them is whether or not they can physically get the job done.

Look, maybe they don't care, but there's a massive catch: those planes aren't going anywhere outside of Russian airspace the second that parts-tracking chain gets broken. That’s exactly why they’re turning to cannibalization. I’d much rather have 100 planes flying under "makeshift" conditions than 250 planes that are effectively grounded within their own borders.
And hey, we all know the day is coming when they run out of parts to strip, and then things are really going to get interesting.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Obviously, the gas is being paid for in dollars, not rubles.
Basically, the whole thing goes through Gazprombank—the foreign buyer drops dollars into a specific account, then the bank handles the exchange from dollars to rubles before moving those rubles over to Gazprom's account. At the end of the day, the Russians get their hands on the dollars, which is what they actually care about. The whole "pay in rubles" stunt is just a clever way for them to squeeze out as many dollars as possible.

What does "squeeze out more Euros" actually mean here? In what way do the Russians walk away with extra Euros through this specific payment scheme? 🤔

Nancy Gomez26 said:Exactly. When the unit price is set in rubles but you're paying at the register in dollars, you aren't just dealing with the sticker price; you're dealing with whatever exchange rate they decide to apply. The price is likely pegged in contracts against other benchmarks, but the rate at which a Russian bank swaps those dollars for rubles is under Kremlin control. If this wasn't already baked into the existing contracts, it represents a fundamental shift in how business is conducted.

The unit price is actually denominated in Euros, not Rubles, along with everything else. Based on what we know, it's pretty much tied to the TTF hub everywhere...
As for the exchange rate the bank uses to convert those Euros into Rubles, nobody in Europe is looking at it, let alone worrying about it, so when you combine that with the previous post about them "taking more Euros," the actual purpose behind it all remains a bit fuzzy to me...

That directive from back in the spring didn't actually mandate paying in Rubles. What it did was introduce a bit of marketing spin while simultaneously ensuring that one specific bank stays clear of sanctions, making sure those Euros don't get stuck in Europe but instead head straight toward Washington, D.C., via this supposed currency conversion...

So, I find myself wondering why this conversion is being treated as some sort of trick, and why none of us seem concerned about what exchange rate is being used? From our perspective, it honestly doesn't matter if they turn 1 Euro into 200 Rubles, or if they turn it into 60 and pocket an extra 140, or even if they turn it into 20 and just leave it at that... We aren't buying Rubles; they are simply conducting their own business however they see fit...
In short, it doesn't affect our pockets one way or the other...
A different scenario would be if we were actually forced to buy Rubles and if prices were strictly set in Rubles. There wouldn't be any open markets or free trading to fall back on; you'd just be at the mercy of whatever the central bank decides to offer. Personally, I don't think that's an unrealistic possibility to consider as we approach winter...

quietviper0 said:What does "squeeze out more Euros" actually mean here? In what way do the Russians walk away with extra Euros through this specific payment scheme? 🤔

The unit price is actually denominated in Euros, not Rubles, along with everything else. Based on what we know, it's pretty much tied to the TTF hub everywhere...
As for the exchange rate the bank uses to convert those Euros into Rubles, nobody in Europe is looking at it, let alone worrying about it, so when you combine that with the previous post about them "taking more Euros," the actual purpose behind it all remains a bit fuzzy to me...

That directive from back in the spring didn't actually mandate paying in Rubles. What it did was introduce a bit of marketing spin while simultaneously ensuring that one specific bank stays clear of sanctions, making sure those Euros don't get stuck in Europe but instead head straight toward Washington, D.C., via this supposed currency conversion...

So, I find myself wondering why this conversion is being treated as some sort of trick, and why none of us seem concerned about what exchange rate is being used? From our perspective, it honestly doesn't matter if they turn 1 Euro into 200 Rubles, or if they turn it into 60 and pocket an extra 140, or even if they turn it into 20 and just leave it at that... We aren't buying Rubles; they are simply conducting their own business however they see fit...
In short, it doesn't affect our pockets one way or the other...
A different scenario would be if we were actually forced to buy Rubles and if prices were strictly set in Rubles. There wouldn't be any open markets or free trading to fall back on; you'd just be at the mercy of whatever the central bank decides to offer. Personally, I don't think that's an unrealistic possibility to consider as we approach winter...

Basically, if you want gas, pay up, and the Russians will happily collect their Euros.
Meanwhile, Europe can just keep playing around with all these sanctions and blockades.☕

Check out this incredible chart:
It shows how Russia isn't actually exporting more, or rather, how China and India aren't really making up for all those lost customers in the West. It’s pretty eye-opening when you see it laid out like this.
https://twitter.com/DiegoFassnacht/s...12214169681921

The data used in the link above comes from CREA, which does such a fantastic job tracking all of this stuff.
https://energyandcleanair.org/

quietviper0 said:What does "squeeze out more Euros" actually mean here? In what way do the Russians walk away with extra Euros through this specific payment scheme? 🤔

The unit price is actually denominated in Euros, not Rubles, along with everything else. Based on what we know, it's pretty much tied to the TTF hub everywhere...
As for the exchange rate the bank uses to convert those Euros into Rubles, nobody in Europe is looking at it, let alone worrying about it, so when you combine that with the previous post about them "taking more Euros," the actual purpose behind it all remains a bit fuzzy to me...

That directive from back in the spring didn't actually mandate paying in Rubles. What it did was introduce a bit of marketing spin while simultaneously ensuring that one specific bank stays clear of sanctions, making sure those Euros don't get stuck in Europe but instead head straight toward Washington, D.C., via this supposed currency conversion...

So, I find myself wondering why this conversion is being treated as some sort of trick, and why none of us seem concerned about what exchange rate is being used? From our perspective, it honestly doesn't matter if they turn 1 Euro into 200 Rubles, or if they turn it into 60 and pocket an extra 140, or even if they turn it into 20 and just leave it at that... We aren't buying Rubles; they are simply conducting their own business however they see fit...
In short, it doesn't affect our pockets one way or the other...
A different scenario would be if we were actually forced to buy Rubles and if prices were strictly set in Rubles. There wouldn't be any open markets or free trading to fall back on; you'd just be at the mercy of whatever the central bank decides to offer. Personally, I don't think that's an unrealistic possibility to consider as we approach winter...

When the Ruble payments were first announced, the direction of the maneuver was obvious. Paying in Rubles while the price remains expressed in Dollars is merely a temporary setup; it's illogical. It was a tactical preparation for the endgame, where they can convert funds at a rate of their own choosing, thereby exerting significant influence over the price—or more accurately, beginning to inject politics directly into gas trading.
They weren't intimidated—they deal with traders far more experienced than themselves. Through gas trade, the Russians attempt to impose their political will. The West, conversely, has no patience for such arrangements—which are essentially extortion. Extortion, creating dependency, and demonstrations of force are the fundamental tools and methods of the old intelligence services (when ideological support fails). You can see the heavy fingerprint of the secret service in these methods and decisions. It seems the Russian intelligence apparatus fails to realize they aren't dealing with a single individual here, but with an entire bureaucratic-political system that has highly developed methods of operation and influence.

Nathan Thomas12 said:Obviously, the gas is being paid for in dollars, not rubles.
Basically, the whole thing goes through Gazprombank—the foreign buyer drops dollars into a specific account, then the bank handles the exchange from dollars to rubles before moving those rubles over to Gazprom's account. At the end of the day, the Russians get their hands on the dollars, which is what they actually care about. The whole "pay in rubles" stunt is just a clever way for them to squeeze out as many dollars as possible.

Look, I know how the money moves, but even if I didn't, I’d still publicly troll them by claiming I have a pile of Rubles and insist on paying with them—just to point out that despite all their pompous blustering, the Russians don't actually want their own currency because it's essentially worthless trash.

If they really meant it, they'd let foreigners go out, buy up Rubles on the open market, and pay for the gas at the official Russian exchange rate, and then we could see how much fun they're actually having. But since that isn't an option, it proves the Ruble is garbage and the "official rate" is nothing more than an autistic fantasy. This whole demand to pay in Rubles is a total sham; in reality, they are practically begging you to pay in Euros.

hiddeneagle98 said:Look, I know how the money moves, but even if I didn't, I’d still publicly troll them by claiming I have a pile of Rubles and insist on paying with them—just to point out that despite all their pompous blustering, the Russians don't actually want their own currency because it's essentially worthless trash.

If they really meant it, they'd let foreigners go out, buy up Rubles on the open market, and pay for the gas at the official Russian exchange rate, and then we could see how much fun they're actually having. But since that isn't an option, it proves the Ruble is garbage and the "official rate" is nothing more than an autistic fantasy. This whole demand to pay in Rubles is a total sham; in reality, they are practically begging you to pay in Euros.

In Russia, you can't easily swap rubles for Euros or Dollars—if you can even do it at all. As long as it stays that way, that currency is about as useful as toilet paper.

Carl Lee27 said:Check out this incredible chart:
It shows how Russia isn't actually exporting more, or rather, how China and India aren't really making up for all those lost customers in the West. It’s pretty eye-opening when you see it laid out like this.
https://twitter.com/DiegoFassnacht/s...12214169681921

The data used in the link above comes from CREA, which does such a fantastic job tracking all of this stuff.
https://energyandcleanair.org/

How can that be? It's simply impossible!
Wasn't it clearly stated in this thread that Russia wouldn't face a winter slump because they would just pivot everything over to China and India????

George Robinson43 said:How can that be? It's simply impossible!
Wasn't it clearly stated in this thread that Russia wouldn't face a winter slump because they would just pivot everything over to China and India????

Of course they will. They have a market of three billion people sitting right there in the East; all they "need" to do is lay down some pipelines for gas and oil. This was likely the plan regardless of this war. It might take some time, but I doubt they don't have a strategy to navigate this transition phase. Meanwhile, we can just sit back and rely on wind and solar power. No worries there. 🎉

Joshua Myers432 said:Of course they will. They have a market of three billion people sitting right there in the East; all they "need" to do is lay down some pipelines for gas and oil. This was likely the plan regardless of this war. It might take some time, but I doubt they don't have a strategy to navigate this transition phase. Meanwhile, we can just sit back and rely on wind and solar power. No worries there. 🎉

It isn't quite as simple as you're making it out to be.🤔
Transporting natural gas is becoming an outdated concept, whereas "wind and solar" represent the actual future. Therefore, those who intend to be ready for what's coming aren't going to stay stuck in the past, tethered to an unreliable gas supplier.

Perhaps that future—one where a dependent West relies on Russian gas—has actually already begun... and we can partially blame Putin for that reality.🤔
There is plenty of money in the West, so the priority is to keep that capital circulating by investing domestically into the projects and companies that will actually develop and build out wind, solar, hydrogen... you name it.
Just look at what the President announced today regarding how this future has already kicked off...

lp