Sanctions on Russia

The West would take the biggest hit if China just vanished. We'd actually have to hire Americans—pay them decent wages, too—instead of everyone obsessing over cheap plastic junk from overseas. Total revolution, basically.

Justin Kern67 said:No, Russia's "economic power" isn't anywhere near the level of Spain. What you are trying to reference is just a comparison of GDP between Russia and Spain—an argument a certain pretentious forum user repeats incessantly here. Aside from the fact that GDP can be calculated in several different ways, it essentially tells you nothing about actual "economic power."
Now, everyone is busy debating energy prices, food costs, and all the other fallout that these sanctions—and the war in Ukraine in general (whether you believe it or not, Ukraine is also exceptionally vital to the global economy, far more important than Spain)—will leave across Europe. If Spain were to vanish tomorrow with its current economic structure, nobody would even notice.

If someone isn't there, the world moves on without them. That is exactly how it will play out with Russia.

The West won't collapse because of this aggression... but Russia could very well face bankruptcy.
The West will adapt, just like it always does.
In my view, Putin has fundamentally overestimated Russia's importance, and the bill for that massive miscalculation is already coming due.
Best regards

Justin Kern67 said:No, Russia's "economic power" isn't anywhere near the level of Spain. What you are trying to reference is just a comparison of GDP between Russia and Spain—an argument a certain pretentious forum user repeats incessantly here. Aside from the fact that GDP can be calculated in several different ways, it essentially tells you nothing about actual "economic power."
Now, everyone is busy debating energy prices, food costs, and all the other fallout that these sanctions—and the war in Ukraine in general (whether you believe it or not, Ukraine is also exceptionally vital to the global economy, far more important than Spain)—will leave across Europe. If Spain were to vanish tomorrow with its current economic structure, nobody would even notice.

Russia's economic influence is definitely bigger than Spain's, but if they had invaded Ukraine back in, say, 2019, the impact on the world economy would have been much milder. Back then, raw material prices were lower, supply chains were totally normal, and we weren't dealing with this kind of inflation. I suspect Putin knew exactly what he was doing by attacking now; he probably figured he could pull off the aggression without much interference or heavy sanctions from the West.
So, I suppose it really comes down to timing. In the long run, whether it's economic, political, or military, the side with the stronger economy usually wins. And Russia might become pretty irrelevant over the next 30 years once the West finds alternative ways to source those raw materials.

Daniel Barnes53 said:Russia's economic influence is definitely bigger than Spain's, but if they had invaded Ukraine back in, say, 2019, the impact on the world economy would have been much milder. Back then, raw material prices were lower, supply chains were totally normal, and we weren't dealing with this kind of inflation. I suspect Putin knew exactly what he was doing by attacking now; he probably figured he could pull off the aggression without much interference or heavy sanctions from the West.
So, I suppose it really comes down to timing. In the long run, whether it's economic, political, or military, the side with the stronger economy usually wins. And Russia might become pretty irrelevant over the next 30 years once the West finds alternative ways to source those raw materials.

I actually think he completely miscalculated.
To truly tie the West's hands for even a few months, the attack should have been launched before the heating season began.
By starting near the end of winter instead, he essentially gifted the West the maneuvering room and time they needed to adapt.
That said, I fully endorse this new Russian direction toward self-sufficiency—this rejection of materialism and Western values within the Euro-Asian Orthodox sphere. I wish them nothing but the best! For all those in the West who recoil at modern Western culture, they finally have a place to seek out a spiritual life in the name of Saint Basil!

George Robinson43 said:I actually think he completely miscalculated.
To truly tie the West's hands for even a few months, the attack should have been launched before the heating season began.
By starting near the end of winter instead, he essentially gifted the West the maneuvering room and time they needed to adapt.
That said, I fully endorse this new Russian direction toward self-sufficiency—this rejection of materialism and Western values within the Euro-Asian Orthodox sphere. I wish them nothing but the best! For all those in the West who recoil at modern Western culture, they finally have a place to seek out a spiritual life in the name of Saint Basil!

Over the last, say, six months or so, inflationary pressures have gotten significantly worse. For instance, the Federal Reserve sped up interest rate hikes beyond their original plan because they were worried about runaway inflation.
I guess one reason why Putin decided to push for aggression just now was that he might have simply miscalculated. Maybe the timing seemed right to him, and he figured the West wouldn't want to risk triggering another recession, especially since we barely managed to crawl out of the COVID-19 crisis.
He also totally missed the mark thinking the Ukrainian government would collapse in three days and the whole country would just fall into his lap without much of a fight.
I suppose the world might have been a lot more tolerant in that scenario. If the Ukrainians didn't care, and there weren't refugees or massive destruction, why would anyone threaten our fragile economy?
As for those Russian values I hear about on certain foreign news networks—things like faith and family—I honestly don't see much "bliss" in the data available. You've got people leaving the country, shrinking populations, alcoholism, HIV issues... plus, their GDP per capita is actually lower than many former Warsaw Pact members, even though they are a way richer nation in terms of natural resources.

Daniel Barnes53 said:Over the last, say, six months or so, inflationary pressures have gotten significantly worse. For instance, the Federal Reserve sped up interest rate hikes beyond their original plan because they were worried about runaway inflation.
I guess one reason why Putin decided to push for aggression just now was that he might have simply miscalculated. Maybe the timing seemed right to him, and he figured the West wouldn't want to risk triggering another recession, especially since we barely managed to crawl out of the COVID-19 crisis.
He also totally missed the mark thinking the Ukrainian government would collapse in three days and the whole country would just fall into his lap without much of a fight.
I suppose the world might have been a lot more tolerant in that scenario. If the Ukrainians didn't care, and there weren't refugees or massive destruction, why would anyone threaten our fragile economy?
As for those Russian values I hear about on certain foreign news networks—things like faith and family—I honestly don't see much "bliss" in the data available. You've got people leaving the country, shrinking populations, alcoholism, HIV issues... plus, their GDP per capita is actually lower than many former Warsaw Pact members, even though they are a way richer nation in terms of natural resources.

Captured Russian soldiers are saying preparations for the invasion actually began in the summer of 2021. Back then, inflation was pretty low, so it was extremely difficult to predict how things would move. However, there is one thing the Russian planners might have seen coming.

I think a more important factor is gas and using gas as a weapon. 2021 saw an incredibly long winter, and European gas storage hit empty levels. This is likely the year when the gas shortage peaks. Every following year, the European Union will become less dependent on Russian gas, especially since two massive LNG export terminals in Canada and Qatar are set to start operating in 2024 and 2025.

Bryan Booth82 said:If someone isn't there, the world moves on without them. That is exactly how it will play out with Russia.

The West won't collapse because of this aggression... but Russia could very well face bankruptcy.
The West will adapt, just like it always does.
In my view, Putin has fundamentally overestimated Russia's importance, and the bill for that massive miscalculation is already coming due.
Best regards

Russia probably won't go bankrupt, but they are certainly headed for some serious trouble.

The shortage of various raw materials presents a much larger headache than your average internet user sipping coffee while scrolling through CNN or the New York Times would ever realize..

Prices are going to spike quite violently, and when they do, either you or I am going to feel the sting of those inflated end-product costs here in the States. To give you an idea, look at Palladium—where Russians control about 40% of production—and then consider Neon and Krypton.

https://www.digitimes.com/news/a20220309PD206.html

"Ukraine accounts for nearly 70% of the supply of purified neon and krypton – both are essential in making semiconductors"

New supplies of these materials aren't just going to materialize out of thin air, unless you decide to place a massive order with some incredibly wealthy Klingons. It’s easy to slap on sanctions, but if you can't function without Palladium, you're stuck, because there is simply no substitute.

So, try adapting if you can, but if you find yourself unable to operate without a specific resource, you've clearly mismanaged your hand. We all know how this plays out: China, India, or even Turkey will likely be more than happy to keep doing business with Russia and buy up whatever they're selling. It follows the usual pattern: the Russians sell Palladium at a premium directly to the Chinese, who then act as middlemen, reselling it at even higher markups to the Germans or the French and so on.☕

nimbletiger7 said:Captured Russian soldiers are saying preparations for the invasion actually began in the summer of 2021. Back then, inflation was pretty low, so it was extremely difficult to predict how things would move. However, there is one thing the Russian planners might have seen coming.

I think a more important factor is gas and using gas as a weapon. 2021 saw an incredibly long winter, and European gas storage hit empty levels. This is likely the year when the gas shortage peaks. Every following year, the European Union will become less dependent on Russian gas, especially since two massive LNG export terminals in Canada and Qatar are set to start operating in 2024 and 2025.

And look, we already touched on Canada—specifically that one terminal they’re building over in British Columbia, which is actually owned by folks from Asia. Even in its initial phase, it isn't some massive game-changer, just about 8.5 billion cubic meters annually, and it won't even hit that 35-36 billion mark until after the expansion is finished. Sure, maybe Canada decides to break ground on another terminal down the road, but we're talking years and years of waiting there, so in the meantime, the USA, Qatar, and Australia are totally going to squeeze the Russians out of the market.

Then there's Qatar, and honestly, they’re going to play an even bigger role in this whole drama. They are constantly scaling up; I mean, they’re boosting capacity by 43% by 2025, and then another 15% just a few years after that. We're talking about them hitting over 100 million tons of LNG per year very soon, which translates to easily north of 100 billion cubic meters—though, of course, theoretical capacity and actual usable supply are two very different things!

"Quote:"

George Robinson43 said:I actually think he completely miscalculated.
To truly tie the West's hands for even a few months, the attack should have been launched before the heating season began.
By starting near the end of winter instead, he essentially gifted the West the maneuvering room and time they needed to adapt.
That said, I fully endorse this new Russian direction toward self-sufficiency—this rejection of materialism and Western values within the Euro-Asian Orthodox sphere. I wish them nothing but the best! For all those in the West who recoil at modern Western culture, they finally have a place to seek out a spiritual life in the name of Saint Basil!

+1
All I can say to this is... HALLELUJAH!

Hawker said:🤦

I honestly can't remember the last time I read something quite this dense with stupidity.

Ultimately, time is going to reveal exactly what we already suspect: just how much economic resilience Russia actually possesses against external pressures and those heavy-handed sanctions, contrasted against the glaring fragility—and frankly, the blatant dependency—of the European Union's economy.

If you listen to the trolls haunting this thread, Russia should have completely imploded financially ages ago; yet, despite all their predictions, that big bear is holding its ground remarkably well. It’s really just a matter of waiting for the very same countries that tried to squeeze them through sanctions to start feeling the pinch and looking for ways to ease up.😉

And let’s be clear, the fallout is going to be a two-way street.

restlessmason54 said:Ultimately, time is going to reveal exactly what we already suspect: just how much economic resilience Russia actually possesses against external pressures and those heavy-handed sanctions, contrasted against the glaring fragility—and frankly, the blatant dependency—of the European Union's economy.

If you listen to the trolls haunting this thread, Russia should have completely imploded financially ages ago; yet, despite all their predictions, that big bear is holding its ground remarkably well. It’s really just a matter of waiting for the very same countries that tried to squeeze them through sanctions to start feeling the pinch and looking for ways to ease up.😉

And let’s be clear, the fallout is going to be a two-way street.

This belongs in the jokes section of the forum.
Even for fanboy posts, this is ridiculous. 🤣

restlessmason54 said:Ultimately, time is going to reveal exactly what we already suspect: just how much economic resilience Russia actually possesses against external pressures and those heavy-handed sanctions, contrasted against the glaring fragility—and frankly, the blatant dependency—of the European Union's economy.

If you listen to the trolls haunting this thread, Russia should have completely imploded financially ages ago; yet, despite all their predictions, that big bear is holding its ground remarkably well. It’s really just a matter of waiting for the very same countries that tried to squeeze them through sanctions to start feeling the pinch and looking for ways to ease up.😉

And let’s be clear, the fallout is going to be a two-way street.

Holding its ground well? Based on which specific metrics, exactly?

Haha, so Russia is holding up well, is it?
🤣

What does President Biden say in those pre-election commercials you all seem to watch a bit too much: "Keep an eye on the traffic lights!"

https://www.tradingview.com/chart/Zxt4PAOj/

🤣

restlessmason54 said:Ultimately, time is going to reveal exactly what we already suspect: just how much economic resilience Russia actually possesses against external pressures and those heavy-handed sanctions, contrasted against the glaring fragility—and frankly, the blatant dependency—of the European Union's economy.

If you listen to the trolls haunting this thread, Russia should have completely imploded financially ages ago; yet, despite all their predictions, that big bear is holding its ground remarkably well. It’s really just a matter of waiting for the very same countries that tried to squeeze them through sanctions to start feeling the pinch and looking for ways to ease up.😉

And let’s be clear, the fallout is going to be a two-way street.

Is that why the Russians haven't opened up their stock exchange yet?

restlessmason54 said:Ultimately, time is going to reveal exactly what we already suspect: just how much economic resilience Russia actually possesses against external pressures and those heavy-handed sanctions, contrasted against the glaring fragility—and frankly, the blatant dependency—of the European Union's economy.

If you listen to the trolls haunting this thread, Russia should have completely imploded financially ages ago; yet, despite all their predictions, that big bear is holding its ground remarkably well. It’s really just a matter of waiting for the very same countries that tried to squeeze them through sanctions to start feeling the pinch and looking for ways to ease up.😉

And let’s be clear, the fallout is going to be a two-way street.

I don't see the economic logic behind that argument.

restlessmason54 said:Ultimately, time is going to reveal exactly what we already suspect: just how much economic resilience Russia actually possesses against external pressures and those heavy-handed sanctions, contrasted against the glaring fragility—and frankly, the blatant dependency—of the European Union's economy.

If you listen to the trolls haunting this thread, Russia should have completely imploded financially ages ago; yet, despite all their predictions, that big bear is holding its ground remarkably well. It’s really just a matter of waiting for the very same countries that tried to squeeze them through sanctions to start feeling the pinch and looking for ways to ease up.😉

And let’s be clear, the fallout is going to be a two-way street.

Anyone struggling with reality should frame this post, hang it on their wall, and read it whenever they need a good laugh.

It makes sense, I suppose, if you’re some kind of brainwashed Putinophile who refuses to look at the reality right in front of them—especially if your primary source of information every single morning is just endless Russian propaganda. Or maybe you simply have no grasp of how economics actually works. Or, quite possibly, you’re being paid to churn out this nonsense. Honestly, it’s probably a combination of all three.

Just imagine how much different things would be in America if that massive LNG deal with Qatar hadn't been completely trashed by Zoran Čaćorić

I'm not entirely sure what the capacity of that would have been, but they would certainly have become more significant than they are now.

I don't know who else hasn't read this yet... just a heads up, I'm not trying to lay down a carpet of endless quotes here, so I'll just share a snippet

The flaw in their logic is the assumption that if NATO hadn't expanded, Russia wouldn't be behaving this way, or would at least be much closer to its current state. But what we're witnessing in Russia right now isn't some sudden shock. It isn't some weird departure from how things have always worked. Way before NATO existed — in The nineteenth century — Russia looked like this: it was ruled by an autocrat. It relied on repression. It was driven by militarism. It was deeply suspicious of outsiders and The West. This is Russia that WE know, and IT ’ S not a Russia that arrived yesterday or in The nineteen-nineties. It isn't some reaction to what The West does. There ara internal processes in Russia that account for where WE ara today.

Honestly, I think I’d take it a step further than that. Personally, I feel like NATO expansion actually positioned us much better to handle this recurring historical pattern in Russia that WE ’ re seeing again today. Seriously, where would we even be standing right now if Poland or The Baltic states were not in NATO? They’d be stuck in that exact same limbo, living in the same precarious reality that Ukraine is facing. If anything, having Poland in the fold is what really helped stiffen NATO’s spine.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/q-and...ukraine-stalin