Sanctions on Russia

https://www.thetimes.co.uk/article/n...ssia-7vh56jt3d

So, PepsiCo—which usually fits that "evil megacorp" trope perfectly fine—actually blinked when faced with all that #boycottPepsiCo heat. They're pulling basically all their brands and products out of Russia, leaving behind nothing but baby formula and essential medicines.

Carl Lee27 said:Well, looks like General Motors is officially out too. It’s honestly pretty wild how they sat on their hands for this long, especially when it’s been blindingly obvious for weeks that the supply chains are totally trashed and there aren't enough parts anywhere to actually get a single line moving. I guess someone in a corner office was probably clinging to the hope that negotiations would wrap up the war in a heartbeat, right?

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...a-over-ukraine

I actually get where they're coming from from a business standpoint. This is a brutal call to make. They're incredibly exposed over there, holding 68% of AvtoVAZ and controlling 30% of the Russian market—it’s basically like deciding to amputate one of your own limbs.

Trump warned NATO for years that Germany was headed for disaster, and now we have the proof.

From Putin's perspective, this latest move to demand gas payments exclusively in rubles is actually a brilliant political play... unfortunately.

Hitting the central bank and the currency directly with sanctions will just tank their value—making a forced ruble-only payment system totally counterproductive to those very same sanctions. It’s no coincidence he's pulling this stunt right when Biden is visiting Europe.
On the flip side, there are plenty of massive energy hogs over here who haven't found a real alternative yet—something to keep them afloat even in the short term.

It's like he's practically begging Europeans to just slap a total embargo on his gas themselves. We'll see how they scramble to respond over the next few days...

People will find a way to make it work; we'll survive even without gas and oil

Basically, this means ExxonMobil is just going to tear up those short-term contracts set in Euros and pay out the damages—which, let's be honest, is pocket change.

Beyond the symbolism, this move tightens the grip on capital within Russia. Export companies are already forced to flip 80% of their foreign currency revenue into Rubles immediately. By forcing a 100% conversion, they’re essentially passing that burden onto international buyers and making it way harder for anyone at home to stash cash offshore.

The Federal Reserve gets an extra influx of foreign currency from those margins.

Plus, it looks like they're prepping for a scenario where Western nations try to implement some kind of "oil-for-food" or "gas-for-food" escrow system. Doing that in Rubles would be a nightmare.

Germany will probably just double down on pivoting to other energy sources.

It won't hit the average Russian too hard upfront. Inflation might look controlled on paper, but shortages are still coming.

Elizabeth Wells2 said:Trump warned NATO for years that Germany was headed for disaster, and now we have the proof.

The thing is, those warnings from Trump didn't really change much; they mostly just served to sideline American influence in how things unfolded, whereas...

Still waters run deep.

(To be fair: Putin deserves the lion's share of the credit here.)

Every single one of Putin's gambits has ultimately backfired, turning into a self-inflicted wound. While this latest move—demanding payment for Russian gas in rubles—might seem like an outlier, I'm not convinced it will be the exception to the rule.

It feels as though he is practically inviting a swifter, more decisive conclusion.

slyfox43 said:Every single one of Putin's gambits has ultimately backfired, turning into a self-inflicted wound. While this latest move—demanding payment for Russian gas in rubles—might seem like an outlier, I'm not convinced it will be the exception to the rule.

It feels as though he is practically inviting a swifter, more decisive conclusion.

Why though?

It’s so obvious now how much of a lifesaver that Transco Pipeline would've been for Europe.

Such a massive shame it never actually happened—though honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they suddenly start digging those old blueprints out of a drawer...

In the long run, this is a huge blow to Russia, one way or another. Actually, let's call it what it is: an epic loss, since they basically had a finished pipeline ready to go that could have given them insane economic leverage down the line.
With everything falling apart like this, their entire investment is just down the drain—and the fallout from this war is going to haunt them for decades.

Linda Lee4 said:Why though?

Is it just me, or is this actually happening?

I don't think it’s a calculated move so much as a habitual failure to accurately gauge the opposition's reaction. It's become almost a cliché with how things are handled in Ukraine; every aggressive maneuver intended to suppress resistance only serves to deepen the animosity and harden the stance against Russia. It’s a bit like trying to put out a fire by throwing gasoline on it—the more he tries to "subdue" a defiant Ukraine, the more he effectively creates a permanent enemy out of them.

Why does it feel that way? Because, in my view, the momentum has already shifted too far for Europe to simply turn around and abandon its current path toward total independence from the Russian threat. Sure, if they had a choice, they might opt for a more gradual transition, but Putin is essentially betting that an ultimatum will force Europe back into a "friendly" posture. That’s the exact same logic applied to Ukraine, yet I suspect he’ll find that instead of a compromise, he ends up facing a complete severance—one that might be uncomfortable for Europe, but will ultimately prove catastrophic for Russia.

Gerald Chavez7 said:No, nobody is actually expecting a new color revolution here—there's just this lingering hope that someone from one of those three-letter Russian agencies will finally take care of Putin...

At their core, sanctions aren't really designed as a way to topple a regime for any specific reason. In reality, they hit the civilian population the hardest, and that’s often the actual goal—to cripple the people without ever firing a single bullet. The folks imposing these sanctions know full well that regular citizens aren't going to overthrow a political body on their own; history shows us that these are almost always deeply entrenched, authoritative political systems. Without some kind of help "from abroad", it’s incredibly unlikely that the public will take to the streets to topple the government.
There's this one incredible documentary on YouTube about how sanctions impacted the people in Iraq.
And the title itself is just haunting... Iraq Destruction of a nation

analogbear5 said:Let's see what kind of excuses they start making once there's zero money left for pensions or paying off all those bureaucrats.

Mass protests in Russia, 2011-2013

Russian budget, expenditures:

That is precisely why I made the point in my previous post:

Anthony Hill5 said:Putin secured the people's loyalty by providing stability and economic growth following the chaotic 1990s that followed the fall of the USSR. He effectively blamed the failures of that era on democracy itself, using it as a pretext to consolidate his authoritarian grip. At the time, Americans—or rather, the citizens there—were more than willing to trade certain liberties for a full stomach.

With these sanctions, he is effectively dragging the nation back to those dark 1990s; we shall see how much longer a failing economy can sustain itself simply by pointing fingers at the West. A single decision has essentially flushed twenty years of economic progress and regime stabilization down the drain. Was he perhaps under the delusion that the country was too massive and too deeply woven into the global economy to be crippled by such measures? It appears a series of catastrophic miscalculations and errors in judgment have been made.

There are far too many unknowns to make any definitive predictions at this stage, yet if we look at the precedents set by Iran and Venezuela, one can draw a chilling conclusion: should protests arise, they will undoubtedly be met with overwhelming bloodshed. Putin’s repressive apparatus is simply too vast, and the ruling elite has far too much at stake to ever permit a regime change. It is my firm belief that Russia must be isolated to the greatest extent possible, with every effort made to curb their ability to destabilize Europe and the rest of the global community.

Larry Fox5 said:It’s so obvious now how much of a lifesaver that Transco Pipeline would've been for Europe.

Such a massive shame it never actually happened—though honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they suddenly start digging those old blueprints out of a drawer...

In the long run, this is a huge blow to Russia, one way or another. Actually, let's call it what it is: an epic loss, since they basically had a finished pipeline ready to go that could have given them insane economic leverage down the line.
With everything falling apart like this, their entire investment is just down the drain—and the fallout from this war is going to haunt them for decades.

I honestly cannot wrap my head around people like Aleksandar Novak, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, claiming that Europe won't be able to function without Russian gas for at least five years. Is that really the extent of their strategic foresight—looking just five years ahead? Do these people even have children or grandchildren to think about?

Michael Ortiz68 said:I honestly cannot wrap my head around people like Aleksandar Novak, the Russian Deputy Prime Minister, claiming that Europe won't be able to function without Russian gas for at least five years. Is that really the extent of their strategic foresight—looking just five years ahead? Do these people even have children or grandchildren to think about?

Their own children and grandchildren are perfectly taken care of and will never want for anything, yet they couldn't care less about anyone else's offspring, which is evident when you look at the ages of the Russian soldiers they've sent straight into the meat grinder.

Anthony Hill5 said:Their own children and grandchildren are perfectly taken care of and will never want for anything, yet they couldn't care less about anyone else's offspring, which is evident when you look at the ages of the Russian soldiers they've sent straight into the meat grinder.

There’s a lot of truth there, though I suppose I'm being a bit naive thinking so. 😁

Michael Ortiz68 said:The reality is that all major strategic European plans were already moving toward phasing out fossil fuels entirely, regardless of what Russia was doing. This transition was supposed to be gradual; now, it’s simply being fast-tracked—though whether it actually succeeds remains to be seen.

These recent policy shifts following the invasion aren't anything revolutionary; they're just the existing plans put on steroids. 😁

If that's really how it works, then why on earth didn't they listen to the Americans and skip that multi-billion dollar Russia-to-Germany pipeline project in the first place? 🤔

Does anyone know the current scale of Norway's oil and gas reserves? I'm wondering if it's actually feasible for them to supply Europe during a transitional period.

Big deal, we’re still paying for gas in dollars.
The Russians are already starving.

Honestly, we should just scrap this whole toxic gas thing and finally commit to green energy.

@stormygardener15 Look, it’s about making sure Russian gas keeps flowing even if things go south in Eastern Europe. Basically, Nord Stream 2 would just bypass Ukraine and Poland entirely.