Gold: Past, Present, and Future

quiettrucker12 said:No. 😁

You're just wasting my energy when we should be busy celebrating QE3 (4, 5, 6...).

You were 100% right 😂

Can we move on to the main topic now?

To me, this decision by Bea feels like pure Stagflation... does anyone have a reliable source on this subject?.......😉

I wouldn't bet on Stagflation happening.
What happens when those dollars held overseas—which is about two-thirds of them—start flowing back into the USA? 🙂

Melissa Sanchez17 said:Controlled inflation might actually work—but that’s assuming a huge chunk of people don't get absolutely fleeced in the process. The catch? You'd need politicians to actually pull it off, which takes a ridiculous amount of time and a whole lot of discipline—most importantly, finally stopping spending more than you actually have 😉. If I recall correctly, hardly any nation has ever managed to pull that off; most just spiral into massive inflation or full-blown hyperinflation until the entire monetary system collapses. What we're seeing right now—on a global scale, I mean, the endless CTRL+P $ , CTRL+P € , CTRL+P everything else strategy—really smells like we're heading toward that second option.

To me, that sounds a lot like controlled dosing, except the addict is the one deciding how much they take.

Anthony Evans78 said:I wouldn't bet on Stagflation happening.
What happens when those dollars held overseas—which is about two-thirds of them—start flowing back into the USA? 🙂

I’m not betting on anything, nor do I have a single "favorite" scenario I'm certain will play out—instead, I simply monitor the ground reality and see who comes out on top...

Regarding stagflation, I have to say it looks like the most likely outcome right now—and don't assume the sheer volume of dollars is the main driver here...

The real player is the Velocity of money—a factor almost nobody mentions... except perhaps Martin Armstrong and a few others...

For anyone interested in how things look regarding gold, silver, and equities, take a look at price movements in the USA between 1966 and 1982—otherwise known as the secular bear market...😉

You can reach out via PM for my analysis.

ironstag8 said:To me, that sounds a lot like controlled dosing, except the addict is the one deciding how much they take.

heh, heh. Just tossing out one possible way to look at it.

Bakić, let's talk gold again... I'm interested to see how people respond to the questions I've laid out...

http://www.poslovnipuls.com/2012/09/...#comment-22922

😂😂😂

dustyheron5 said:I’m not betting on anything, nor do I have a single "favorite" scenario I'm certain will play out—instead, I simply monitor the ground reality and see who comes out on top...

Regarding stagflation, I have to say it looks like the most likely outcome right now—and don't assume the sheer volume of dollars is the main driver here...

The real player is the Velocity of money—a factor almost nobody mentions... except perhaps Martin Armstrong and a few others...

For anyone interested in how things look regarding gold, silver, and equities, take a look at price movements in the USA between 1966 and 1982—otherwise known as the secular bear market...😉

You can reach out via PM for my analysis.

Don't be silly, man. We've hashed all of this out right here on this forum a dozen times already; you're just relatively new to the scene. 😁

Sound familiar?

My friend, debt is the very essence of fiat. As debt defaults, fiat is destroyed. This is where all these deflationists get their direction. Not seeing that hyperinflation is the process of saving debt at all costs, even buying it outright for cash. Deflation is impossible in today's dollar terms because policy will allow the printing of cash, if necessary, to cover every last bit of debt and dumping it on your front lawn! Worthless dollars, of course, but no deflation in dollar terms!
You see credit money is tied to the functioning of the economy and base money is not. As the debtors balloon deflates, so does the functioning economy, and so does the real world of goods that backs the money supply. bas money does not contract along with The Economy like credit money does. And base money is the fuel in all hyperinflations while credit money vanishes!
As The Economy along with The debtors balloon contracts and The confidence of The savers wanes, the previous driving force of greed switches to the much more powerful force of fear. And "switch" is a great word in this case, because this transition can hit the entire planet all at once as fast as flipping a "light switch." It's called a panic.
When it does, that's when the velocity of the monetary base takes off. And as I have pointed out before, velocity has the same exact effect on the value of a dollar as an increase in the money supply. (See my "sea shell island" analogy here.) If the velocity jumps from fear, base money can chase scarce goods with the same disastrous effect as an exponential increase in the money supply, even before that actually occurs.

This was posted years ago, linked, and debated on this board plenty of times. 😍

dustyheron5 said:I’m not betting on anything, nor do I have a single "favorite" scenario I'm certain will play out—instead, I simply monitor the ground reality and see who comes out on top...

Regarding stagflation, I have to say it looks like the most likely outcome right now—and don't assume the sheer volume of dollars is the main driver here...

The real player is the Velocity of money—a factor almost nobody mentions... except perhaps Martin Armstrong and a few others...

For anyone interested in how things look regarding gold, silver, and equities, take a look at price movements in the USA between 1966 and 1982—otherwise known as the secular bear market...😉

You can reach out via PM for my analysis.

Unfortunately, you aren't the only one who feels that way (though there hasn't been much chatter about it lately)

As for the dollar, once things settle down a bit, I suspect it'll hold its ground for a while before it eventually drops back down to meet 'that certain group of people.'

Edit: shoot me a DM

dustyheron5 said:You were 100% right 😂

Can we move on to the main topic now?

To me, this decision by Bea feels like pure Stagflation... does anyone have a reliable source on this subject?.......😉

Milton Friedman actually coined the term stagflation. I caught Marc Faber on Capital Account last night and he was quoting him quite a bit. Here’s what Friedman had to say:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...bofhGU#t=1396s

You can find his full lecture on those five economic myths right here:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...ailpage&v=zNtK

Hey Francisco, I think that second link you posted is broken.

-Steve

Clearly some idiot in Copy/Paste... Here we go again:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature...&v=zNtKk2EmI-o

One thing is absolutely certain: Ben isn't going to let deflation happen on his watch. He couldn't care less about it, and he's got more than enough tools in the shed to make sure it stays away.

Check out this clip of Ben back in the day: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=szwclmmKwLg

I wouldn't rule out the possibility of stronger deflation, though if it happens, I suspect it’ll be short-lived. That’s why I decided to hold some cash.
I don't believe they'll let a total collapse happen, even if the fact remains that M2-base money has plummeted by 25%. That's incredibly deflationary. As for this QE, it seems calculated enough to avoid immediate hyperinflation, instead bleeding into specific asset classes over time. People will see their standard of living erode without even realizing it at first; it’ll likely take two or three years before inflation hits double digits. The market could swing either way, and frankly, the timing and strength of these moves remain questionable. But make no mistake, the long-term trend is inflationary. Massimo has written extensively on this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUBJs28u5Ek

Watch the first part of the interview, specifically from 8:40 through 13:00.

Gold should be viewed as insurance against all these maneuvers. Personally, I have no intention of selling until I see them wind down the QE and pivot back to sensible policy—assuming, say, silver doesn't hit at least five times its current value. It's unrealistic to expect the government to guarantee the average American's standard of living with this kind of currency, so precious metals will likely see massive price surges as a hedge. If they stick to the old playbook, we'll face massive imbalances that could threaten the entire system. They won't allow that to happen.

Robert Vaughn10 said:I wouldn't rule out the possibility of stronger deflation, though if it happens, I suspect it’ll be short-lived. That’s why I decided to hold some cash.
I don't believe they'll let a total collapse happen, even if the fact remains that M2-base money has plummeted by 25%. That's incredibly deflationary. As for this QE, it seems calculated enough to avoid immediate hyperinflation, instead bleeding into specific asset classes over time. People will see their standard of living erode without even realizing it at first; it’ll likely take two or three years before inflation hits double digits. The market could swing either way, and frankly, the timing and strength of these moves remain questionable. But make no mistake, the long-term trend is inflationary. Massimo has written extensively on this.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sUBJs28u5Ek

Watch the first part of the interview, specifically from 8:40 through 13:00.

Gold should be viewed as insurance against all these maneuvers. Personally, I have no intention of selling until I see them wind down the QE and pivot back to sensible policy—assuming, say, silver doesn't hit at least five times its current value. It's unrealistic to expect the government to guarantee the average American's standard of living with this kind of currency, so precious metals will likely see massive price surges as a hedge. If they stick to the old playbook, we'll face massive imbalances that could threaten the entire system. They won't allow that to happen.

Exactly. It all plays out perfectly for us. We get another two-and-a-half-year bull run in precious metals, followed by a correction that makes this one look like nothing—something along the lines of the 2008 crash. We managed to navigate this current correction within a $100 range (well, at least with gold; silver was a headache, not to mention the miners), but we're definitely going to feel the sting of the next one.

quiettrucker12 said:Exactly. It all plays out perfectly for us. We get another two-and-a-half-year bull run in precious metals, followed by a correction that makes this one look like nothing—something along the lines of the 2008 crash. We managed to navigate this current correction within a $100 range (well, at least with gold; silver was a headache, not to mention the miners), but we're definitely going to feel the sting of the next one.

Based on your logic, what are the peak values for gold and silver at the top of this wave versus the final bubble at the end of the decade? And let's assume we're talking current USD. I realize this is pure speculation, but since you're making forecasts, I'd like to hear them...

Robert Vaughn10 said:Based on your logic, what are the peak values for gold and silver at the top of this wave versus the final bubble at the end of the decade? And let's assume we're talking current USD. I realize this is pure speculation, but since you're making forecasts, I'd like to hear them...

Predicting the ultimate endgame of this entire mess is an exercise in futility.

Personally, I’m holding Precious Metals as my final line of defense, though I’ve already allocated a significant percentage of my portfolio there.

To be honest, I don't lose sleep over where the bottom lands.

I wouldn't even mind taking a hit if we see a major price correction.

Because if that happens, it would actually mean the tide has turned and we're finally heading in the right direction.

My own expectation is that we'll see inflation, likely hitting double digits. There simply isn't any other way for the government to flush out this mountain of national debt.

That’s exactly my point. We’re looking at controlled inflation right now—until the second things spiral completely out of hand 😍
and we hit hyperinflation territory. Honestly, anything is on the table at this point 🙂. You really have to stay sharp and know exactly when to pull the trigger and react
.

Robert Vaughn10 said:Based on your logic, what are the peak values for gold and silver at the top of this wave versus the final bubble at the end of the decade? And let's assume we're talking current USD. I realize this is pure speculation, but since you're making forecasts, I'd like to hear them...

Jim Sinclair says 3500, so we're probably looking at a minimum of 3000 and maybe a ceiling of 4000. In the last cycle, the move from the correction to the peak was about 2.4x. That would put us at 3650 (1526 x 2.4), and considering this wave is supposed to be even stronger than the last one...

Silver is harder to call. Maybe $110-$120.

The real action will likely be in mining stocks. We could see those jump 3x from where they are now (the HUI is sitting around 500).

Right now, we're still just consolidating. We need to see how gold reacts once it breaks through $1920 or $2000 and stays there.

Melissa Sanchez17 said:That’s exactly my point. We’re looking at controlled inflation right now—until the second things spiral completely out of hand 😍
and we hit hyperinflation territory. Honestly, anything is on the table at this point 🙂. You really have to stay sharp and know exactly when to pull the trigger and react
.

The window for caution was back in August 2011. That was pure chaos—everyone was panicking, and we were all typing away about selling everything before the peak. Well, that ship has sailed, whether we see some profit-taking and a dip down to 1720 (where we started this run) or not. Back then, Mizuzul and I were debating if silver would hit 22 or 23. It ended up hitting 26. As for this current wave, the "panic buy" window was when you could actually snag silver at 28. Right now, you can still jump on the train, but you’re risking a stomach-churning mini-correction if one hits in the next couple of weeks. If that happens, there might be another shot at 1900, but that doesn't help the people who actually listened to the advice to buy at 28.

It’s a shame Mizuzul doesn't post more often. He's easily the most level-headed person on this entire board.

quiettrucker12 said:The window for caution was back in August 2011. That was pure chaos—everyone was panicking, and we were all typing away about selling everything before the peak. Well, that ship has sailed, whether we see some profit-taking and a dip down to 1720 (where we started this run) or not. Back then, Mizuzul and I were debating if silver would hit 22 or 23. It ended up hitting 26. As for this current wave, the "panic buy" window was when you could actually snag silver at 28. Right now, you can still jump on the train, but you’re risking a stomach-churning mini-correction if one hits in the next couple of weeks. If that happens, there might be another shot at 1900, but that doesn't help the people who actually listened to the advice to buy at 28.

It’s a shame Mizuzul doesn't post more often. He's easily the most level-headed person on this entire board.

And what about the crowd that loaded up back when it was $12? It's actually good to have people with different takes on the board, otherwise we just turn into some weird little cult.😂