Gold: Past, Present, and Future

vividgull10 said:So, you're telling me that back in 2011—during the absolute peak of the crisis and when they were cranking the printing presses like crazy—silver didn't drop 50% in value? And we're supposed to call that just a "minor retracement"? Give me a break.

Let's not get carried away here. We aren't debating religion. There's a difference between having convictions and calling people crazies just because they disagree—especially when the very theory you're backing just tanked by 50%. That’s not exactly a winning argument. And honestly, stop recycling sixty-year-old doom stories about the dollar collapsing or fiat becoming worthless. People have been shouting that same script since Bretton Woods, and yet, here we are. Sure, the collapse could happen tomorrow. It could have happened yesterday. It’s been "happening" for six decades straight. But while everyone else was busy waiting for the end of the world, some people were busy making massive fortunes on silver right after the printing presses started running.
Bottom line: we're playing in the market. Things aren't exactly stable enough here to be calling anyone crazy.

Just so there's no confusion, I'm generally on the buy side when it comes to precious metals.

Look, it's perfectly fine to call them that. There's a difference between having a different opinion and completely turning off your brain and pretending we're still in a normal market. We haven't been in a real market since 2008; it's just been constant intervention ever since.
And it wasn't a drop in value, it was a drop in price. We've already covered why that happened. Maybe you should go back and read our previous discussions.
And do a bit more homework. The dollar started its decline in 1971, not at Bretton Woods 🙂
Anyway, back to gold. I still think the paradigm has shifted. There will definitely be a correction, but one thing is certain: paper goes to zero, metals go to the moon.

quiettrucker12 said:We probably won't see that until 2013. Expect some serious pushback at 1800, and then much heavier resistance coming up in November (??) around 1900. It almost certainly won't blast through 1900 on the first try this year. There’ll likely be at least a month between each attempt.

It’s entirely possible it won't hit 50 within this calendar year... though it's clear to everyone now that the objective probability exists. Just a few months ago, neither you nor Karl gave it even a glimmer of a chance.🤣

It seems to me you two have recalibrated your odds.😉

dustyheron5 said:It’s entirely possible it won't hit 50 within this calendar year... though it's clear to everyone now that the objective probability exists. Just a few months ago, neither you nor Karl gave it even a glimmer of a chance.🤣

It seems to me you two have recalibrated your odds.😉

Wrong. Completely off base. Just look back at May 18, 2012:

http://www.forum.us/showthread.php?t=544488&page=40

meaning:

May 18, 2012.

dustyheron5 said:Bought some silver yesterday; planning to pick up more today.
Might even play with some leverage.

I'm expecting silver to hit $50 an ounce by the end of the year.

Best,

May 18, 2012.

Charlemagne said:🤣

May 18, 2012.

quiettrucker12 said:45 😛

May 19, 2012.

dustyheron5 said:Look, you know me... this is just my take. I'm not telling anyone else to follow it, and honestly, I wouldn't mind if it hit your 45 either.🤣 In fact, 😍
but just as easily as my forecast could be wrong, it could just as easily overshoot.
😂

It’s pretty funny how, after I’ve dropped xyz posts here, you try to lump me in with Karl, who actually thinks gold is a winning play in a bear market.

That $5 difference is irrelevant to this debate—you’ve completely lost the plot anyway. But now that we've cleared the air and I've wasted 15 minutes digging through old threads, all that's left is to see who ends up closer to the mark by the end of the year: 45 or 50.

Sorry, you misread my point🤣........I recall you saying there was potential for a move, though you remained skeptical about the specific valuation.......
But you're right—I shouldn't group you in with Karl...😂

I always follow your gold and silver price forecasts closely—I truly value your insight.

Anthony Evans78 said:Look, it's perfectly fine to call them that. There's a difference between having a different opinion and completely turning off your brain and pretending we're still in a normal market. We haven't been in a real market since 2008; it's just been constant intervention ever since.
And it wasn't a drop in value, it was a drop in price. We've already covered why that happened. Maybe you should go back and read our previous discussions.
And do a bit more homework. The dollar started its decline in 1971, not at Bretton Woods 🙂
Anyway, back to gold. I still think the paradigm has shifted. There will definitely be a correction, but one thing is certain: paper goes to zero, metals go to the moon.

Watch your wording: I said the rhetoric about fiat collapsing has been around since Bretton Woods (and even before), not that the dollar's value has been dropping since then. If we're talking actual purchasing power, that's been sliding since the 30s.

And whether people like it or not, value dropped in 2011. This isn't about hoarding indefinitely; it's about saving with liquidity in mind (which is a fundamental requirement for any store of value). Savings exist so that when you actually need them, you can turn them into liquid cash and use them. Someone who needed their silver stash back in 2011 lost half their value. Take it how you want.

You can talk all you want about "if only I had waited this long, I would have made X." Sure, absolutely everything in the world happens if you wait long enough.
But at that point, you're practicing religion, not dealing with reality.

To reiterate, I'm personally on the bullish side for PMs. However, I don't think for a second that people who aren't convinced about PM growth are crazy.
Especially considering that just a year ago, those same PMs got slammed by 50%. (Let's be precise: they dropped 50% twice in three years, so what are we even discussing here?) It doesn't matter what the reasons were. That's exactly the point of "caution first."

quiettrucker12 said:It’s just not happening. Or, if you want to be polite, it’s nowhere near realistic for something to shift like that overnight. What you're saying is just oversimplifying a massive, complicated mess.

Back in 2008, nobody thought it was "realistic" for the S&P 500 to tank 50%, yet it happened without asking for permission. Same goes for silver—it didn't ask anyone before dropping over 50% in both 2008 and 2011.
The internet was full of debates, "expert" projections, and endless noise about how healthy and sustainable the housing market was... until suddenly, the data flipped and turned the world upside down.

I never said how likely it is. I'm just saying that in this climate, anything can be switched off. That's all I said.

I'll say it again: my personal take is that a rise in PMOvs is much more probable. But even with that conviction, I’m staying extremely cautious because of exactly what I just laid out.

dustyheron5 said:Sorry, you misread my point🤣........I recall you saying there was potential for a move, though you remained skeptical about the specific valuation.......
But you're right—I shouldn't group you in with Karl...😂

I always follow your gold and silver price forecasts closely—I truly value your insight.

I didn't misread anything. I clearly remember that $50 call—just look at the quotes above. I pulled them because I know exactly who I’m dealing with 🙂 😁 and I wasn't being skeptical, quite the opposite (check the quotes again).

dustyheron5 said:Sorry, you misread my point🤣........I recall you saying there was potential for a move, though you remained skeptical about the specific valuation.......
But you're right—I shouldn't group you in with Karl...😂

I always follow your gold and silver price forecasts closely—I truly value your insight.

Actually, "camp" would be a better word since I respect different perspectives. Generally speaking, there are two camps here: inflation and deflation. I'm guessing Charles is in the deflation camp. Some of the deflation crowd might change their tune after listening to today's press conference from Ben.

@quiettrucker12
@indijanac

Once again, you guys are dragging me into this mess.
Let me tell you something...
Gold started dropping back in September 2011, and by November, it was obvious a correction was coming—which, for me, meant a full-on downtrend, so that's how I played it. It lasted until about June. Silver? Same exact story, just even more aggressive. If you didn't see that coming, you shouldn't be trading at all.
I'm not one of those "value investors" who couldn't care less where gold or silver ends up in a month, a year, or two. I’m smart enough not to waste my time with those kinds of forecasts, and anyone actually trading knows they're useless. Leave that stuff to the "analysts" and the other self-proclaimed experts.
Inflation, deflation... honestly, I don't care. It's not that I don't get the consequences certain moves have on the economy, but like I said, it doesn't matter when you're trading. The market can stay irrational way longer than you can stay solvent.
It’s simple, yet so many people here insist on acting like idiots. If you think I wasn't playing long on gold and silver yesterday, you're dead wrong—but it doesn't even matter, because you lot are just here making predictions. There's nothing wrong with predicting, but predictions don't put money in your pocket. What matters is whether you bought or sold at the right moment or not. Everything else is just noise.

Look, man, just like everyone else before you, you're confusing price with actual value. 🙂
That "hitting the ice" phase you're talking about wasn't some freak accident either; people have been writing about this exact pattern forever.
Caution? Please. I stick strictly to physical precious metals—it’s the only way I get any decent sleep. 😁

lonehawk5 said:@quiettrucker12
@indijanac

Once again, you guys are dragging me into this mess.
Let me tell you something...
Gold started dropping back in September 2011, and by November, it was obvious a correction was coming—which, for me, meant a full-on downtrend, so that's how I played it. It lasted until about June. Silver? Same exact story, just even more aggressive. If you didn't see that coming, you shouldn't be trading at all.
I'm not one of those "value investors" who couldn't care less where gold or silver ends up in a month, a year, or two. I’m smart enough not to waste my time with those kinds of forecasts, and anyone actually trading knows they're useless. Leave that stuff to the "analysts" and the other self-proclaimed experts.
Inflation, deflation... honestly, I don't care. It's not that I don't get the consequences certain moves have on the economy, but like I said, it doesn't matter when you're trading. The market can stay irrational way longer than you can stay solvent.
It’s simple, yet so many people here insist on acting like idiots. If you think I wasn't playing long on gold and silver yesterday, you're dead wrong—but it doesn't even matter, because you lot are just here making predictions. There's nothing wrong with predicting, but predictions don't put money in your pocket. What matters is whether you bought or sold at the right moment or not. Everything else is just noise.

You ended up being collateral damage for indijanac's fantasies🤷 ... I have no idea why he gets carried away like that sometimes.

I get what you're saying about trading; I actually called for an exit from precious metals right at the start of the correction (not digging through old posts to prove it). Still, I have to take issue with your comment about gold being in a bear market. It felt clumsy, to say the least, and it could lead people astray given we're in the middle of the biggest bull market ever. I doubt any of us have seen anything like this, and we might never see it again.

I can see why those guys are giving you grief now, considering how condescending you've been lately—from that "just keep playing" attitude in the quote to everything else. I don't know why you feel the need to communicate like that (I haven't seen that kind of vibe anywhere except maybe in some weird corner of the US). I sort of get it if you're trying to counter the SEC-style😁 approach of certain forum members whose "buy and hold" strategy works great in a bull market this massive, but will cause huge problems when they actually need to exit at the peak. There's a difference between patiently trying to teach the crew that every bull market ends in a parabolic move, and just acting arrogant. Arrogance is a death sentence for a trader. We need humility, period.

I honestly just wonder when you traders are going to stop playing with paper instruments and move into the real stuff, like metals or land.
It should be pretty obvious by now that those papers you're gambling on only hold value as long as everyone else agrees they do. 🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:Look, man, just like everyone else before you, you're confusing price with actual value. 🙂
That "hitting the ice" phase you're talking about wasn't some freak accident either; people have been writing about this exact pattern forever.
Caution? Please. I stick strictly to physical precious metals—it’s the only way I get any decent sleep. 😁

I'm sure your theory that this "wasn't a natural occurrence" totally compensates everyone who just watched half their net worth vanish. I bet they feel a whole lot better now that you've enlightened them on the difference between price and value. 🙂

The fact that you hold nothing but physical metals and can't sleep unless you do just means you hold nothing but physical metals and can't sleep. That's fine. But it doesn't make anyone else crazy just because they don't follow your lead—especially since your big idea is that a 50% drop isn't actually a drop, it's just an "unnatural event," and whatever you say is going to happen is the only thing that counts as "natural." 🙂

quiettrucker12 said:You ended up being collateral damage for indijanac's fantasies🤷 ... I have no idea why he gets carried away like that sometimes.

I get what you're saying about trading; I actually called for an exit from precious metals right at the start of the correction (not digging through old posts to prove it). Still, I have to take issue with your comment about gold being in a bear market. It felt clumsy, to say the least, and it could lead people astray given we're in the middle of the biggest bull market ever. I doubt any of us have seen anything like this, and we might never see it again.

I can see why those guys are giving you grief now, considering how condescending you've been lately—from that "just keep playing" attitude in the quote to everything else. I don't know why you feel the need to communicate like that (I haven't seen that kind of vibe anywhere except maybe in some weird corner of the US). I sort of get it if you're trying to counter the SEC-style😁 approach of certain forum members whose "buy and hold" strategy works great in a bull market this massive, but will cause huge problems when they actually need to exit at the peak. There's a difference between patiently trying to teach the crew that every bull market ends in a parabolic move, and just acting arrogant. Arrogance is a death sentence for a trader. We need humility, period.

Like I said... if we hit a correction, that's a bear market to me. I don't care if the market has been up for years. I'll admit, some people might have taken it the wrong way.

And as for the arrogance? I disagree. I always talk to people like that when they can only see a straight line moving up, so...
The situation with that guy is a whole different story... 😁

vividgull10 said:I'm sure your theory that this "wasn't a natural occurrence" totally compensates everyone who just watched half their net worth vanish. I bet they feel a whole lot better now that you've enlightened them on the difference between price and value. 🙂

The fact that you hold nothing but physical metals and can't sleep unless you do just means you hold nothing but physical metals and can't sleep. That's fine. But it doesn't make anyone else crazy just because they don't follow your lead—especially since your big idea is that a 50% drop isn't actually a drop, it's just an "unnatural event," and whatever you say is going to happen is the only thing that counts as "natural." 🙂

🙂

Anthony Evans78 said:I honestly just wonder when you traders are going to stop playing with paper instruments and move into the real stuff, like metals or land.
It should be pretty obvious by now that those papers you're gambling on only hold value as long as everyone else agrees they do. 🙂

Personally, I'll stick to paper instruments as long as they're printing money. I don't see anything smart or rational about walking away from a profit sitting right there on the table.

dustyheron5 said:Exactly 40 billion a month... though honestly, that’s beside the point. Ben is essentially gambling everything on this...😍

If my colleagues move aggressively on gold tomorrow, they could potentially break through the 1,800 mark... what are your thoughts?👍

AGQ + 8.48%
SLW + 4.50%
MUX + 7.01%

Just running. Today. Buy a kilo of gold... then what? on Maybe JP Morgan could finally wrap up a quarter in the green!

Where exactly are you finding all this hype? We laid our cards on the table back at the end of 2011, and we aren't even due for a look at the results for another three and a half months. You're basically just back to where you were in February. Why the sudden celebration? 😉

Over the last week—actually, looking at all the hype from this past month—it feels like everything that could possibly go right for gold finally did. Every single bullish argument we've heard all year has been fired off. So now what? Is QE3 just supposed to magically send prices through the roof on its own? As if. The first two rounds didn't even trigger the inflation everyone said would drive gold higher. Why? Because people were supposed to have more cash in their pockets, but instead, they actually have less. Neither a third round of QE nor any future rounds are going to change that reality. The people who dreamed this stuff up proved pretty quickly that it doesn't touch inflation or deflation because it doesn't spark new lending. That’s where the real inflation comes from. Right now, the only thing keeping inflation alive is the absolute madness in energy prices. But looking mid-term? We're heading straight back toward deflation.
A few days of good vibes, then we’re right back to the usual grind.

What a load of nonsense, my friend Patrick Moore3 🙂
First off, gold prices in dollars have hit an all-time high.
Second, obviously QE3 is driving up the price of gold. By itself? 🙂 Not a chance. If you actually believe official US statistics, there hasn't even been any inflation. They're even saying unemployment is down. Meanwhile, if you're just an average person paying for gas, groceries, drinks, and rent, inflation in the US is sitting well above 8%.
Inflation is quite simply the act of printing money. And if the last few trillion—plus the next $40 billion a month, plus another five—doesn't count as inflationary to you, then what does? Sure, if it doesn't enter circulation, it isn't "inflationary," but then why bother printing it at all? Oh, right, I forgot... it's all to bail out banks that should have gone bankrupt ages ago.
Do you honestly think energy prices are rising because demand is through the roof? Wrong. They're rising because everything is priced in dollars, and since the government is printing dollars like crazy, the value is tanking. It’s only natural that the price in those same devalued dollars goes up... is that really so hard to wrap your head around?
Deflationary theories don't exist as long as central banks are breathing. Do you seriously believe the people running the printing presses would ever let the little guy see the value of his money go up? 🙂

And one more thing... ZIRP until 2015? You really think that’s going to jumpstart the economy and bail out the banks? 🙂
The USA has been playing that game for over twenty years, and we can all see how well that turned out.

If you’re burning through fuel and choosing to view the world through rose-colored glasses, then these oil prices might look like this to you:
http://www.macrotrends.org/1380/gold...eading-back-up

How do you read this chart?

I don't follow. What exactly are you getting at? As specified by dustyheron5:
I didn't misunderstand you—I clearly recall that $50 statement. If you look back at the quotes above, you'll see them. I included those specifically because I know exactly who I am dealing with. 🙂 😁 And I wasn't being skeptical—quite the opposite (just look at the quotes again).

I should have used the term "camp"—I respect the differing perspectives here. Generally speaking, there are two camps: the inflationary and the deflationary. I assume Charles falls into the deflationary camp. However, some from that side might change their minds if they actually listened to Ben’s press conference today.

You're absolutely right. 😉

You’ve managed to drag me into this too—now I find myself mentioning Charles in a negative light.😍He isn't a bad investor at all—not by any means. He simply miscalculated this time around.

Back when gold was trading between $1,850 and $1,900—he nailed it—predicting that things were headed for a massive downturn.

The estimates are generally solid—but let’s be real—even the best data can have its fair share of errors slip through the cracks.