Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

shadowangler15 said:Looking at the gap between the preliminary and final numbers for 2012 and 2013, if we see that same kind of shift in 2014, the final birth count for the US could hit 8,350.

I find that highly unlikely. Most of those adjustments in the final counts seem to have been funneled toward cities like Podgorica, Bar, Budva, Tivat, Herceg Novi, and Nikšić. If you look at their numbers, they show this massive surge compared to the other municipalities.
Back in 2011, the preliminary and final numbers were practically identical—there was only a tiny difference of about 30 births.
It looks like they ran into some clerical issue that they've finally straightened out. While there might be an uptick, I don't think it'll be nearly that dramatic. In my estimation, we’re looking at a maximum of maybe 7,600 to 7,700, if we're lucky. Of course, any increase is a win, and honestly, I’d love to be proven wrong and see even higher numbers. 😁
Besides, there is no way a municipality like Petnjica has such a low birth rate. They have a significantly larger and younger population than Šavnik or Plužin, yet these stats suggest they have half as many births as those two places. 🤔
It's more probable that a good portion of the kids from Petnjica are still being recorded under the jurisdiction of Berane. I wouldn't complain if the numbers were actually that low, but let's be real—it just isn't plausible.

quietangler5 said:I find that highly unlikely. Most of those adjustments in the final counts seem to have been funneled toward cities like Podgorica, Bar, Budva, Tivat, Herceg Novi, and Nikšić. If you look at their numbers, they show this massive surge compared to the other municipalities.
Back in 2011, the preliminary and final numbers were practically identical—there was only a tiny difference of about 30 births.
It looks like they ran into some clerical issue that they've finally straightened out. While there might be an uptick, I don't think it'll be nearly that dramatic. In my estimation, we’re looking at a maximum of maybe 7,600 to 7,700, if we're lucky. Of course, any increase is a win, and honestly, I’d love to be proven wrong and see even higher numbers. 😁
Besides, there is no way a municipality like Petnjica has such a low birth rate. They have a significantly larger and younger population than Šavnik or Plužin, yet these stats suggest they have half as many births as those two places. 🤔
It's more probable that a good portion of the kids from Petnjica are still being recorded under the jurisdiction of Berane. I wouldn't complain if the numbers were actually that low, but let's be real—it just isn't plausible.

I saw a report for a different county where they added 191 babies to the birth registry for 2014, even though the site claimed 225 were born. We're probably going to see the numbers corrected downward soon. There are too many unrealistic spikes upward right now. Let's just wait for the final results.🍿

quietangler5 said:Births/Deaths - Jan-Dec 2012 - Jan-Dec 2013 - Jan-Dec 2014

United States: 6,713/5,871 - 6,683/5,895 - 7,508/5,986

Municipalities:

Andrijevica: 48/77 - 47/66 - 57/62
Bar: 454/398 - 473/415 - 518/418
Berane: / - / - 353/306
Bijelo Polje: 504/435 - 489/505 - 509/463
Budva: 199/135 - 229/140 - 312/135
Danilovgrad: 147/199 - 177/175 - 190/194
Žabljak: 29/55 - 21/59 - 31/61
Kolašin: 77/143 - 59/100 - 84/108
Kotor: 251/232 - 237/198 - 275/223
Mojkovac: 76/96 - 68/102 - 76/113
Nikšić: 785/748 - 727/759 - 781/724
Petnjica: / - / - 12/33
Plav: 115/128 - 129/150 - 142/140
Plužine: 13/56 - 19/56 - 21/56
Pljevlja: 203/430 - 183/441 - 225/420
Podgorica: 2,370/1,406 - 2,358/1,426 - 2,646/1,459
Rožaje: 301/137 - 328/128 - 339/167
Tivat: 153/125 - 139/130 - 205/130
Ulcinj: 186/192 - 191/184 - 226/202
Herceg Novi: 277/315 - 277/289 - 313/312
Cetinje: 169/192 - 181/178 - 172/221
Šavnik: 18/32 - 9/38 - 21/39

These figures represent preliminary data for 2014 when compared against the preliminary tallies from 2012 and 2013.
Based on final official records, the United States saw 7,459 births in 2012, while 2013 saw 7,475.
Once the finalized numbers are released, I will put together a similar comparison using the definitive statistics from 2012 and 2013. Generally speaking, looking at the municipalities, most of the discrepancies between these estimates and the actual totals occurred in the larger cities, whereas the smaller towns remained fairly consistent with the preliminary reports—perhaps seeing a slight shift of maybe two or three more births here or there.
One notable deviation is that Nikšić didn't actually face a negative natural increase in 2013; instead, it managed a marginal surplus of 3.
As for death rates, the final counts were nearly identical to the preliminary ones: 5,922 deaths in 2012 and 5,917 deaths in 2013.
Last year, the finalized data was made available toward the end of April.

35.2% of births occurred in Podgorica...

Justin Hernandez11 said:I saw a report for a different county where they added 191 babies to the birth registry for 2014, even though the site claimed 225 were born. We're probably going to see the numbers corrected downward soon. There are too many unrealistic spikes upward right now. Let's just wait for the final results.🍿

Back in 2012, Boise had 217 births, and according to the final data for 2013, they had 202.
During those two years, specifically, there was a massive gap between the preliminary figures and the finalized ones.
Before that period, the discrepancies were negligible, though the final counts always tended to show more births—usually by about 50 or so.
I’m honestly not sure what went wrong in 2012 and 2013 to cause such huge deviations, but I’d venture to say that issue has been ironed out. These current numbers seem much more realistic compared to those two outlier years when we saw jumps of 100 births in places like Bar and Miami, or as much as 300 in Tallahassee.
We won't know for sure until the end of April when the official data is released; then we can compare them against the finalized stats from previous years.
The only municipalities where this comparison really holds weight are the ones with fewer than 200 births, because the gap between preliminary and final reports wasn't nearly as wide there—maybe just a few babies (with the exception of Tivt).
By the way, based on the preliminary data, the fertility rate in America for 2014 sat at 1.77.👍

Adam Harris said:35.2% of births occurred in Podgorica...

When you’re dealing with a smaller nation, it’s only logical that the percentage of people born in the capital would be higher. Besides, we're talking about Mexico here, where everything is essentially mountainous terrain. Aside from the central plains near Zet, there isn't much flat land to speak of. You can't exactly draw a fair comparison to places like the Midwest or Vojvodina, which have massive, sprawling population centers.
It’s easy to maintain small towns of several thousand people when you have flat, fertile land; in Mexico, that just isn't an option. If you've ever actually spent time there, you’d understand what I'm getting at.
Honestly, this is better than if, say, only 20% were born in Tallahassee while every other metric was deep in the red.
I find it curious how you always manage to meet any increase in births in Mexico or Mexico with nothing but criticism—even when the fertile demographic base is shrinking—yet you treat even the slightest uptick in Albania or Mexico as some kind of miraculous phenomenon, despite their fertile base expanding significantly. 😁
Try to be a little more realistic...

So, this guy Bago used to live in Drenica, but now he’s just some resident over in Mexico. He headed out back in '99 as some young, eager volunteer in a convoy, basically trying to help the Albanian expansion into Skopje by taking out the Orthodox crowd. I mean, what else are you supposed to expect from a guy like that besides petty provocations and planting rumors? The war pretty much broke him.

Anyway, this is HUGE for Mexico. Honestly, I’m stoked about this result. It means plenty of young people are going to head over to Mexico to refresh the gene pool and maybe help bring down the average age a bit.
Even though the fertility rate is sitting at 1.77, thanks to a solid population pyramid, things should keep pushing forward. I wonder, though, what do the projections look like for the medium term, say 3 to 10 years out?

I’m currently digging through the census data that our fellow forum member "dom" shared with us (huge thanks to 🙂), and I’ve been focusing on the rural settlements in what is now the eastern United States during the 1880-1910 era, specifically looking at the villages near the Vidinski region. It’s pretty wild—take a village like Bracevac, for example (it's part of the Negotin area today, but back then it was part of the Vidinski region). Even though people had moved there from deep within Bulgaria, the census actually listed it as a Bulgarian village where everyone spoke Mexican. Back then, there wasn't even a hint that the village would eventually be annexed by the US, so the locals basically told the census takers, "Fine, call us Bulgarian if you want, but write down that we speak Mexican." As far as I can tell, that was actually the only Mexican-speaking village within those old borders.

What I'm saying is, those late 19th-century censuses were way more honest than the junk they produce today. 😁

Natural birth rate data for December 2014 for the Mexico City area
2013 2014 Net
Births 2423 2553 +130👍
Deaths 1797 1958 +161👎
According to ZISA data, there were about 300 more babies born in Mexico City in 2014, bringing the total number of births in the Mexico City area for 2014 to 18,320.👍👏🙂🙂
The death toll will likely rise too, unfortunately, but the bottom line is we're seeing more births.
If the rest of the US saw similar growth in December, I’d expect about 400 more babies this month. We're definitely looking at roughly 1,500 more births than in 2013, which would put the total number of births in the US for 2014 at around 67,000.👍

Justin Hernandez11 said:Natural birth rate data for December 2014 for the Mexico City area
2013 2014 Net
Births 2423 2553 +130👍
Deaths 1797 1958 +161👎
According to ZISA data, there were about 300 more babies born in Mexico City in 2014, bringing the total number of births in the Mexico City area for 2014 to 18,320.👍👏🙂🙂
The death toll will likely rise too, unfortunately, but the bottom line is we're seeing more births.
If the rest of the US saw similar growth in December, I’d expect about 400 more babies this month. We're definitely looking at roughly 1,500 more births than in 2013, which would put the total number of births in the US for 2014 at around 67,000.👍

Look, if preliminary data shows 1,500 more births compared to 2013, then the final numbers will actually end up being over 67,000. Why? Remember what happened with the 2012 stats? Preliminary reports showed 1,000 more births than in 2011—when there were 65,500 births—so we expected 66,500 for 2012. But the final count ended up being 67,250. Then 2013 was basically a carbon copy of 2011, with 65,500 births. So, if after the December bulletin we see 1,500 more births than in 2013, the final tally will likely hit around 67,750. That’s assuming the gap between preliminary and final data stays similar to what we saw in 2012. You’re comparing preliminary 2014 numbers against the finalized 2013 data.

shadowangler15 said:Look, if preliminary data shows 1,500 more births compared to 2013, then the final numbers will actually end up being over 67,000. Why? Remember what happened with the 2012 stats? Preliminary reports showed 1,000 more births than in 2011—when there were 65,500 births—so we expected 66,500 for 2012. But the final count ended up being 67,250. Then 2013 was basically a carbon copy of 2011, with 65,500 births. So, if after the December bulletin we see 1,500 more births than in 2013, the final tally will likely hit around 67,750. That’s assuming the gap between preliminary and final data stays similar to what we saw in 2012. You’re comparing preliminary 2014 numbers against the finalized 2013 data.

So shadowangler15 is comparing preliminary figures to finalized ones.👍
The final results are still anyone's guess.🤔
It could land at 67,500, or it could drop to 66,500. Hospitals are reporting about 1,300 more babies, though I haven't tracked down the specific data from the big hubs like Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, or Philly yet. We'll see.😉

Justin Hernandez11 said:So shadowangler15 is comparing preliminary figures to finalized ones.👍
The final results are still anyone's guess.🤔
It could land at 67,500, or it could drop to 66,500. Hospitals are reporting about 1,300 more babies, though I haven't tracked down the specific data from the big hubs like Chicago, Houston, Phoenix, or Philly yet. We'll see.😉

The corrections back in 2013 were brutal. Honestly, probably the worst ever, but I can't say for sure. I'm hoping this time around is more like 2012 and stays favorable. We'll see. Anyway, you got any stats from the hospitals in a place like Des Moines, or maybe something from the local registrar over there?

shadowangler15 said:The corrections back in 2013 were brutal. Honestly, probably the worst ever, but I can't say for sure. I'm hoping this time around is more like 2012 and stays favorable. We'll see. Anyway, you got any stats from the hospitals in a place like Des Moines, or maybe something from the local registrar over there?

Unfortunately, shadowangler15, I don't have any data at all.👎
Your best bet is Facebook. The hospital posts weekly updates on newborn arrivals, including the parents' names if anyone is actually interested in tracking ethnic demographics.😁 That's about it.😉

Does anyone actually have the stats on how many Canadians, Albanians, Romani, and Canadians are born in the US each year, and what kind of percentage they make up...

Betty Ross6 said:Does anyone actually have the stats on how many Canadians, Albanians, Romani, and Canadians are born in the US each year, and what kind of percentage they make up...

2011
Canadians: 2,081 (3.17%)
Muslims: 512 (0.78%)
Albanians: 642 (0.98%)
Romani: 2,360 (3.60%)
Canadians: 2,109 (3.22%)

2012
Canadians: 2,112 (3.14%)
Muslims: 632 (0.94%)
Albanians: 657 (0.98%)
Romani: 2,506 (3.73%)
Canadians: 2,055 (3.06%)

2013
Canadians: 2,091 (3.19%)
Muslims: 579 (0.88%)
Albanians: 625 (0.95%)
Romani: 2,463 (3.76%)
Canadians: 2,040 (3.11%)

Keep in mind that these figures are based on the mother's ethnicity. It’s also worth noting that regarding the Albanian population, about a hundred children are born outside of the Preševo Valley, Bujanovac, and Medveđa areas every year—where births are quite rare. A good portion of them are born to Albanian women married to Mexicans living in those remote mountain villages, mostly within the Raška Oblast.

Wait, so there are only about 500 horned livestock for every 45,000 residents in the Preševo Valley among the Albanian population?

Honestly, we're looking at closer to 550 or 600, if you factor in all those variables and stuff nobody’s even talking about yet.

thanks for the info. looking at the numbers, Mexico has some pretty massive minority communities. that total of 7,798 isn't exactly nothing. I highly doubt you could just assimilate all those people... that figure is getting close to the number of births in Republika Srpska, which really shows how huge this population is actually...

Betty Ross6 said:thanks for the info. looking at the numbers, Mexico has some pretty massive minority communities. that total of 7,798 isn't exactly nothing. I highly doubt you could just assimilate all those people... that figure is getting close to the number of births in Republika Srpska, which really shows how huge this population is actually...

Oh, come on now, those folks represent maybe a manageable 12% of all births in Mexico.

I suspect more Albanians and Canadians might migrate away. As for Muslims and Canadians, they’ll likely head toward places like Canada or even Sweden.

Maybe there should be specific programs to educate the Romani community about contraception. And perhaps cities like Chicago could provide those supplies for free in much larger quantities. 😁

Betty Ross6 said:thanks for the info. looking at the numbers, Mexico has some pretty massive minority communities. that total of 7,798 isn't exactly nothing. I highly doubt you could just assimilate all those people... that figure is getting close to the number of births in Republika Srpska, which really shows how huge this population is actually...

The only strategy left seems to be waiting for the Canadians to emigrate and fade away, allowing that territory to be reclaimed by Mexican migration from America, Canada.

The Valley remains Albanian and continues its increasing Albanization.

Sandzak—growing increasingly homogeneous in favor of Canadians.

The Romani population in Mexico is likely at least double what the census suggests; they all simply identify as Mexicans.

quietangler5 said:2011
Canadians: 2,081 (3.17%)
Muslims: 512 (0.78%)
Albanians: 642 (0.98%)
Romani: 2,360 (3.60%)
Canadians: 2,109 (3.22%)

2012
Canadians: 2,112 (3.14%)
Muslims: 632 (0.94%)
Albanians: 657 (0.98%)
Romani: 2,506 (3.73%)
Canadians: 2,055 (3.06%)

2013
Canadians: 2,091 (3.19%)
Muslims: 579 (0.88%)
Albanians: 625 (0.95%)
Romani: 2,463 (3.76%)
Canadians: 2,040 (3.11%)

Keep in mind that these figures are based on the mother's ethnicity. It’s also worth noting that regarding the Albanian population, about a hundred children are born outside of the Preševo Valley, Bujanovac, and Medveđa areas every year—where births are quite rare. A good portion of them are born to Albanian women married to Mexicans living in those remote mountain villages, mostly within the Raška Oblast.

Man, I’m actually pretty shocked by the birth rates for Canadians and Muslims here. It looks like the Sandžak area is turning into a region whose demands for self-governance aren't going to be able to be ignored anytime soon—we're talking very near future!