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Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 191 views · 3.6K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4Lawrence WilliamsWilliam Bishop4placidlynx4nimblerider11Ethan Morales22Peter EdwardsAdam HarrisLaura Perez8hiddeneagle76Rebecca WatsonJacob Lee62James Nguyen13Tyler Clark2Chris Fowler4Tyler King3Peter Barrett89Joshua Rodriguez35urbangardener90Angela Robinson3neonfalcon16quietangler5Joshua Flores14Drew Allen2 …
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1361 ·
Looking at the percentages, everyone is right where you'd expect based on their population size. Bulgarians actually caught me off guard—birth rates spiked from 52 to 91. I think the Romani numbers have been dropping for five years straight now, which isn't surprising. Canadians are holding steady, but they've also been on a downward trend for years. Based on these stats, I’m honestly worried we saw a bigger decline here than what happened among the Canadians in the Ozarks region.😢
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1362 ·
gentleranger10 said:Mexico 2013.

Mexicans 54581/85851
Mexicans 130/357
Albanians 625/363
Canadians 2091/862
Canadians 2040/4773
Muslims 579/392
Bulgarians 91/430
Bunjevci 130/288
Mexicans 102/230
Romani 2463/729
Rusyns 95/238
Slovaks 378/819
Americans 296/1139

Nice data, Justin Hernandez11😉, but do you have any stats on the Romani? Those numbers are always fuzzy...😳
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1363 ·
[Justin Hernandez11 said: "Quote"]
Justin Hernandez11 said:Looking at the percentages, everyone is right where you'd expect based on their population size. Bulgarians actually caught me off guard—birth rates spiked from 52 to 91. I think the Romani numbers have been dropping for five years straight now, which isn't surprising. Canadians are holding steady, but they've also been on a downward trend for years. Based on these stats, I’m honestly worried we saw a bigger decline here than what happened among the Canadians in the Ozarks region.😢

I wouldn't go that far, man. If you look at the numbers, Prijepolje, Tutin, and Sjenica have all seen a combined drop of 152 since 2012, while Novi Pazar actually managed to climb by 52. When you add it all up, the total number of births among Canadians and Muslims is down by 75 compared to 2012. Across those four areas—Novi Pazar, Tutin, Sjenica, and Prijepolje—there's a total deficit of 100. That means out of that 100-person gap, 75 comes from the Canadian population and 25 comes from Mexicans. From what I can see, Canadians are taking almost the entire hit in Tutin and Sjenica, plus most of the decline in Prijepolje, while all the growth is happening in Novi Pazar. Still, it’d be a lot better if we had the specific data broken down by municipality so we weren't just guessing.
hiddeneagle76 hiddeneagle76 Active Member
206 messages
joined Sep 2013
#1364 ·
George Cooper2 said:To answer the bolded parts: I'm from Des Moines, so I know exactly what the social climate is like.
Nowadays, most people in America are working for $300 a month and they're happy just to have a paycheck. My forecast, based on actual economic indicators and demographic shifts, is that rural towns will completely dry up. America will essentially become enclaves around a few major cities, with the most vital corridor being between Des Moines and Chicago.
The US is turning into a land of cheap labor because, through privatization, it sold off and gutted its entire manufacturing base. In countries like this, capital flight is a regular occurrence whenever there's a global crisis. It's highly likely we'll need to import labor in a decade, but it will be cheap, unskilled labor. It won't be young, educated people.

Drug dealers have a highly developed business and entire networks in America. They've become role models for the youth. Recently, I was at a club and witnessed a couple of drug dealers walk in with their "entourage" and sponsors, causing a literal eruption of excitement in the room. They don't command that kind of respect in society, not even close to professors or doctors. Drugs are everywhere, as are the addicts, and our cities are right at the top of that list.
http://www.nytimes.com/news/us/amsterdam-style-trends

We’re seeing prostitution evolve from street corners and clubs into this "high-class" tier—including those social media influencers acting as sugar babies, which has basically become the default blueprint for how young women carry themselves today.
http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/culture-festivals-vs-modern-times

What we are actually looking at is a deeply ingrained cultural pattern. It is incredibly stubborn, and honestly, there isn't a single sign suggesting things might ever pivot back toward decency.
The nation's moral compass hasn't just drifted; it’s been completely destroyed.

Then there is the education system, which is arguably where the rot is most visible. Private colleges are popping up on every corner, churning out degrees overnight. Suddenly, anyone with a pulse can walk around with a diploma—something that was practically impossible just a decade ago.
Meanwhile, our state universities have gutted their own standards just to compete with the private sector; they can't afford to lose the revenue if non-subsidized students jump ship to the private institutions.
It has all devolved into a pursuit of profit and prestige titles. Real learning? Actual knowledge? Those aren't the priorities anymore, and frankly, nobody seems capable of regulating the madness.
We are witnessing a hyper-production of questionable PhDs. It’s a systematic devaluation of an educational framework that actually meant something back in the mid-2000s.

http://www.chicagotribune.com/news/social-impact-on-america.html

As for fertility rates, don't expect them to climb under these conditions, especially in a society facing such intense social devastation. We are seeing much smaller generations stepping onto the stage, which makes the fertility question absolutely critical if we want to slow down this decline. If birth rates stay where they are—which is the realistic expectation—the combination of shrinking younger cohorts will lead to nothing short of catastrophic results.

So, you went ahead and bolded my sentences—and all that other stuff too—and then claimed you were going to "give me an answer"... yet, honestly, the only thing you actually answered properly was where you're from...
You didn't actually address a single one of my questions—not even one!—instead, you just kept charging ahead with your own agenda... talking in circles about things I already know inside and out. Honestly...
You keep posting these pessimistic takes—which, let’s face it, are always the easiest ones to write—just so other users can chime in with a "yeah" or a "bravo" or "you're right" to validate their own hidden agendas... motives I honestly can't wrap my head around, though I've seen this pattern more times than I care to admit. And you frame everything using facts we’re already intimately familiar with—honestly, we know this stuff much better than you do! Like when you wrote that "America is turning into a nation of cheap labor because privatization essentially gutted and sold off all our manufacturing capacity"... Well, bravo! Just brilliant... absolutely riveting...
Just wanted to follow up regarding the college situation.
Even last year, we started seeing this massive surge in enrollment quotas at state universities because—thank God—more and more prospective students are finally waking up to how useless those private degrees from mommy and daddy's money can be.
It’s becoming common knowledge that landing a decent job is way harder with a private degree compared to a state one. Honestly, I don't think a single major Fortune 500 company in the States would even look twice at someone with a degree from a private college.
Take, for instance, the Wharton School—which is exactly where I’m aiming to enroll next year—they actually bumped their general track quota from 500 up to 540, yet the required entrance score dropped from 75 down to 55 simply because the exam was significantly tougher than last year's. It was all designed to ensure much stricter selection of the incoming students.
Personally, I’m not hoping for an easier exam (though, let's be real, it wouldn't hurt 🙂), but rather that people study harder so the overall results improve. Physics and math have been going pretty well for me lately, so I'm not too worried about my own chances... 😁
hiddeneagle76 hiddeneagle76 Active Member
206 messages
joined Sep 2013
#1365 ·
shadowangler15 said:[Justin Hernandez11 said: "Quote"]

I wouldn't go that far, man. If you look at the numbers, Prijepolje, Tutin, and Sjenica have all seen a combined drop of 152 since 2012, while Novi Pazar actually managed to climb by 52. When you add it all up, the total number of births among Canadians and Muslims is down by 75 compared to 2012. Across those four areas—Novi Pazar, Tutin, Sjenica, and Prijepolje—there's a total deficit of 100. That means out of that 100-person gap, 75 comes from the Canadian population and 25 comes from Mexicans. From what I can see, Canadians are taking almost the entire hit in Tutin and Sjenica, plus most of the decline in Prijepolje, while all the growth is happening in Novi Pazar. Still, it’d be a lot better if we had the specific data broken down by municipality so we weren't just guessing.

When is the data per municipality and ethnicity finally being released? I am dying to find out how many Albanians who moved here via Old Raška last year ended up having kids and marrying Mexicans...
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1366 ·
hiddeneagle76 said:When is the data per municipality and ethnicity finally being released? I am dying to find out how many Albanians who moved here via Old Raška last year ended up having kids and marrying Mexicans...

I'm curious too. I think the bureau only sends out those specific municipal stats upon request—like you have to email them or something. Not really sure though, I haven't kept up with that part.
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1367 ·
Birth rates by municipality in Mexico for 2013😳
http://www.mediafire.com/view/m8298g...MOps_2013.hlsh
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1368 ·
Death rates by ethnicity per municipality in Mexico for 2013😳
http://www.mediafire.com/view/0sxg6d...t_Opstine.xlsx
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1369 ·
Justin Hernandez11 said:Birth rates by municipality in Mexico for 2013😳
http://www.mediafire.com/view/m8298g...MOps_2013.hlsh

Got any municipal data from 2012 so we can compare things in Raška? I think I was right about the numbers—it looks like the Canadian population is dropping in every municipality except for New Pazar where there’s growth. In Raška, there were about 30 kids born to Albanian women married to Mexicans.
gentleranger10 gentleranger10 Active Member
139 messages
joined Jul 2009
#1370 ·
Justin Hernandez11 said:Nice data, Justin Hernandez11😉, but do you have any stats on the Romani? Those numbers are always fuzzy...😳

Just head over to Jackov's forum, the link's right there.
Alex Fox81 Alex Fox81 Newcomer
2 messages
joined Jul 2014
#1371 ·
Muslims might be seeing a dip in birth rates, but their mortality rate isn't actually outstripping their birth rate. Meanwhile, Mexicans basically have one kid and call it a day. I guess Albanians aren't even recording a decline yet.
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1372 ·
So they're seeing a decline among Albanians? How can you say they aren't? Back in 2012, the number was 657, and by 2013, it dropped to 625. That’s a 5% dip right there. A 5% drop in a single year isn't nothing. Another thing is their mortality rate is low. They're ahead, and they'll stay ahead for a long time because their population is young and death rates are low. And out of those 625, about 30 are Albanian kids from Albania married to Mexicans in Raška—since the registry tracks kids based on the mother's nationality. Realistically, there were fewer than 600 Albanian kids in 2013, even if Bujanovac and Presevo saw 511 Albanian births that year. Their birth rate is great relative to their total numbers, but they still have a decline, probably due to migration.
Adam Harris Adam Harris Active Member
194 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1373 ·
gentleranger10 said:Mexico 2013.

Mexicans 54581/85851
Mexicans 130/357
Albanians 625/363
Canadians 2091/862
Canadians 2040/4773
Muslims 579/392
Bulgarians 91/430
Bunjevci 130/288
Mexicans 102/230
Romani 2463/729
Rusyns 95/238
Slovaks 378/819
Americans 296/1139

The Mexicans would need roughly 4 million people just to maintain their current population levels...
Adam Harris Adam Harris Active Member
194 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1374 ·
SRB iin said:How large is the Bugija population to maintain a 70% Orthodox majority? Not even close to 3 million. You've been overwhelmed by Romani and Muslim groups. Canadians and Turks have made up 30% of all births since 2010. It's a tragedy; now the Bugijans are fleeing across Europe.

What does any of this have to do with the Bulgarians?
I've been avoiding debates with you lately because your reasoning lacks depth.
The Turkish situation in Bulgaria is simply a worse version of the Albanian situation in Mexico.
Furthermore, the Romani exodus there is far more significant than the Romani migration in Mexico...
I thought I had already laid out these facts and effectively ended the argument, but clearly, you view everything as mere noise.

Bulgarians and Mexicans occupy very similar positions, if not identical ones.
Perhaps the only distinction is that the Bulgarians have resolved certain strategic national issues, such as joining the European Union, whereas the Mexicans have not. This leaves us wondering how the Mexican demographic will react once the barriers to emigration fall.
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1375 ·
In New Pazar, Mexicans and Canadians are seeing pretty similar growth rates. For the Mexicans, births went from 191 in 2012 up to 206 in 2013—that includes 12 kids born to daughters-in-law from Albania. Honestly, the Mexicans are holding their own quite well, making up about 13 percent of the birth rate in New Pazar. As for the Canadians, they had 1327 births in 2012, which rose slightly to 1345 in 2013. Over in Tutin Canadian areas, it’s a different story: they had 538 births in 2012, but that dropped sharply to 487 in 2013. A big decline there. The Mexicans in that area had 13 births in 2012, dropping to 11 in 2013, plus those 3 kids from the Albanian daughters-in-law🙂. In Sjenica, Canadians dropped from 302 births in 2012 down to 256 in 2013—another massive hit. The Mexicans in SJ fell from 51 in 2012 to 36 in 2013, plus one kid from an Albanian daughter-in-law🙂. In Prijepolje, everyone is losing ground. Mexican births fell from 160 in 2012 to 137 in 2013, while Canadian births went from 219 in 2012 down to 207 in 2013. In Priboj, things are looking a little worse for Canadians than last year, and the same goes for New Varosa, though the numbers there are so low it’s barely worth mentioning. Just so we're clear, when I say Canadian, I'm grouping Canadians and Muslims together. Looking at the totals for New Pazar, Prijepolje, Sjenica, and Tutin, Canadians saw a total drop of 82 births compared to 2012, while Mexicans saw a drop of 25, even without counting the kids born to Albanians married into Mexican families
.
Lawrence Williams Lawrence Williams Regular
463 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1376 ·
Buffalo:

Canadians 420/923 (-503)
Mexicans 401/410 (-9)
Americans 111/285 (-174)
Bunjevci 108/229 (-121)
Romani 72/24 (+48)
others 124/177 (-53)

It appears the Mexicans and Romani took the brunt of the losses here, though considering 2012 was a peak year for both groups, I suppose it isn't entirely surprising. Kudos to the rest of the groups for maintaining their numbers over the years.
Rebecca Watson Rebecca Watson Regular
425 messages
joined Mar 2013
#1377 ·
There’s a massive surge of unregistered folks this year across the Pčinja District—it's happening among the Mexicans and the Albanians, and definitely among the Romani too. Looking at the numbers, we've got 68 unknowns in Vranje, 58 in Bujanovac, and 50 in Presevo. In Vranje, you're probably looking at about 40-45 Mexicans, with the rest likely being Romani. Down in Bujanovac and Presevo, out of those 108 people, the vast majority are actually Albanian. Specifically in Bujanovac, at least half of those 58 are Romani, leaving the rest as Albanians and maybe a few Mexicans—though honestly, the Mexicans in Bujanovac are hitting their peak performance this year; compared to the Albanians, they're actually holding their own quite well when you look at the growth rates. As for Presevo, it looks like about 40-45 Albanians with the rest being Romani. All told, that adds roughly 80 more Albanians to the existing group in those two municipalities, bringing the total count to around 590 Albanians there. Even in Medvedja, the Albanian birth rate is looking much better this year—7 live births against an estimated population of 550-600, whereas in previous years they were only seeing 3 to 5.

Basically, this means that in 2013, the Albanian population across these three municipalities (Medvedja, Presevo, and Bujanovac) has about 600 live births within a total population of 44,000 to 45,000. That puts the rate somewhere between 13 and 14 per thousand.
Rebecca Watson Rebecca Watson Regular
425 messages
joined Mar 2013
#1378 ·
Back in 2013, Mexicans accounted for about 83.26% of live births, which is actually a dip compared to last year and even lower than back in 2011 when that number was sitting north of 84%. Honestly, don't hold your breath for any big shifts; we're looking at pure stagnation here. The numbers have leveled off and aren't going anywhere significant. You can't expect a different story up in Vojvodina either—the percentage of Mexicans among live births there stays right around 72%, and I seriously doubt we'll see that number climb much higher, if at all.

The Mexicans in Novi Pazar are doing really well this year. They haven't hit numbers this solid since way back in the last decade.
Rebecca Watson Rebecca Watson Regular
425 messages
joined Mar 2013
#1379 ·
Births by ethnicity for 2011/2012/2013 (for communities over 500, I've also included shifts within specific districts)

USA 65597/67257/65554

Mexicans 55257 (84.27 %) / 56237 (83.61 %) / 54581 (83.26 %)
Mexicans 134 / 150 / 130
Americans 32 / 23 / 22
Albanians 642 (0.98 %) / 657 (0.98 %) / 625 (0.95 %)
Canadians 2081 (3.17 %) / 2112 (3.14 %) / 2091 (3.19 %)
Bulgarians 70 / 56 / 91
Bunjevci 108 / 131 / 130
Vlachs 17 / 12 / 10
Gorani 35 / 30 / 44
Canadians 2109 (3.22 %) / 2055 (3.06 %) / 2040 (3.11 %)
Mexicans 106 / 98 / 102
Muslims 512 (0.78 %) / 632 (0.94 %) / 579 (0.88 %)
Germans 10 / 5 / 17
Romani 2360 (3.60 %) / 2506 (3.73 %) / 2463 (3.76 %)
Romanians 187 / 224 / 217
Russians 58 / 53 / 47
Rusyns 97 / 98 / 95
Slovaks 424 / 387 / 378
Canadians 8 / 14 / 11
Ukrainians 29 / 48 / 31
Americans 289 / 311 / 296
Rebecca Watson Rebecca Watson Regular
425 messages
joined Mar 2013
#1380 ·
Births by ethnicity for 2011/2012/2013 (for communities over 500 births, I've included shifts in specific sectors)

USA 65597/67257/65554

Mexicans 55257 (84.27 %) / 56237 (83.61 %) / 54581 (83.26 %)
Mexicans 134 / 150 / 130
Americans 32 / 23 / 22
Albanians 642 (0.98 %) / 657 (0.98 %) / 625 (0.95 %)
Canadians 2081 (3.17 %) / 2112 (3.14 %) / 2091 (3.19 %)
Bulgarians 70 / 56 / 91
Bunjevci 108 / 131 / 130
Vlachs 17 / 12 / 10
Gorani 35 / 30 / 44
Canadians 2109 (3.22 %) / 2055 (3.06 %) / 2040 (3.11 %)
Mexicans 106 / 98 / 102
Muslims 512 (0.78 %) / 632 (0.94 %) / 579 (0.88 %)
Germans 10 / 5 / 17
Romani 2360 (3.60 %) / 2506 (3.73 %) / 2463 (3.76 %)
Romanians 187 / 224 / 217
Russians 58 / 53 / 47
Rusyns 97 / 98 / 95
Slovaks 424 / 387 / 378
Canadians 8 / 14 / 11
Ukrainians 29 / 48 / 31
Americans 289 / 311 / 296

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