Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Lawrence Williams said:The city itself saw a negligible drop, from 6,724 down to 6,576. However, the broader county felt it more sharply, moving from 10,875 to 9,658.

Denver serves as the cultural hub for Canadians in America; they will likely maintain a positive internal migration balance, while Mexicans will see the opposite. Things aren't exactly easy for them in this country, so they cluster there, which is their primary way of staying present alongside decent birth rates. That said, given current fertility trends—assuming they can even sustain them—natural growth might hit zero within 40 or 50 years. Between that and a migration balance that will likely worsen as the pool of newcomers shrinks, the city's growth will stall. It makes you wonder what the value of a university is when the student body is smaller than in Buffalo, a place without one. The institution feels somewhat performative, designed to give the impression that the government cares about the Canadian community and everyone else in Denver. Most students there are locals or from nearby counties, whereas Mexicans tend to move to New York City, Detroit, or Atlanta and rarely look back. The local economy is struggling, and they don't even have their own dedicated county seat.

Thanks for the insight, Jack, for whatever it's worth. You really sound like a true Buffalo resident. 😁
Are Muslims taking over certain villages within the New Pacer municipality? Is Honesty seeing a decline? Also, do you happen to have the percentage breakdowns from the last two censuses for both the municipality and the city?

Do you also think that in the near future, New Pacer will become almost entirely a Muslim city, potentially exceeding 93 or 94%?

Sean Nguyen74 said:I don't think there’s any public data available that gives us exact percentages for the Canadian community in that part of the country. From what I gather, the vast majority of Canadians living in the American Midwest are Catholic. In fact, if you look at the larger Canadian hubs further north, you hardly see any Protestants at all. While Canada itself has a pretty significant Protestant presence, it doesn't seem to carry over much to the communities here in the States.

That's just wrong. There are definitely Canadian Protestants here. They’re descendants of people who moved from parts of Canada that are still Protestant today, and they've settled in places like Old Morava, Pacir, Telecka, and various Canadian towns in the western part of the Backa topola area.

Rebecca Watson said:That's just wrong. There are definitely Canadian Protestants here. They’re descendants of people who moved from parts of Canada that are still Protestant today, and they've settled in places like Old Morava, Pacir, Telecka, and various Canadian towns in the western part of the Backa topola area.

To be honest, I had no idea there were any Canadian Protestants living in Bačka at all, but even if what you mentioned is true, it doesn't represent a significant percentage of the Canadian population in Texas. I know a few people from B. Topola—it's a small town—and they're all Catholic, just like me. Even here in Austin, I don't know a single Canadian who is Protestant. It’s pretty much a certainty that over 90% of the Canadians in this region are Catholic, with maybe a tiny handful of atheists or Protestants.
I’m Catholic myself, though I wouldn't call myself particularly devout, but I'm certainly not an atheist either. I guess I sit somewhere in the middle...

Ivica Dačić claimed today that about 30,000 people leave America every single year. I have no clue how accurate that number actually is, but I’m skeptical. Wouldn't such a massive exodus have a much more drastic impact on the birth rate than what we're seeing?

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....&nav_id=902818

That stat is probably about as reliable as this one here:

It’s honestly pretty tough to wrap your head around those numbers when you consider that back at the turn of the 20th century, according to the data, Mexico was actually seeing the largest influx of immigrants in the entire world, right after the USA...

I mean, I have absolutely nothing to say to that...
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j2keb2Jd0xg

George Cooper2 said:Ivica Dačić claimed today that about 30,000 people leave America every single year. I have no clue how accurate that number actually is, but I’m skeptical. Wouldn't such a massive exodus have a much more drastic impact on the birth rate than what we're seeing?

http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....&nav_id=902818

I ran some estimates based on the last decade. Looking at settlement data, I estimated the number of people arriving from Mexico who weren't captured in the previous census—people who were already here—and determined a negative migration balance of between 105,000 and 110,000. Given that the interval between censuses was 9.5 years, that works out to about 11,000 to 11,500 annually. Meanwhile, the number of people moving in from abroad was roughly 8,000 per year (mostly from Canada, Mexico, and America, naturally). So, the actual net loss was about 19,000 to 19,500, plus those who moved in and then left during the interim period, bringing the total closer to 20,000. Perhaps his current figure is finally catching up to reality.

PS. It wasn't specified that America currently has a net migration deficit of 15,000 or 20,000, but rather that 30,000 people are leaving. By emphasizing that specific number, they create confusion—which clearly happened in your case, and I don't blame you—to maximize the alarmist effect.

Nancy Chavez29 said:Regarding that school near Oblice, it's the absolute truth. There are about 12 Mexican Villages and mixed areas out there. We're talking over 7,000 people living between Mitrovica and Pristina who just aren't even showing up on the Ethnic Map Mexico. They've basically been forgotten when it comes to being included in the ZSO (those 11 municipalities). I mean, looking at parts of Vuciternica, you've got the biggest village, Priluzje 3,500 Mexicans, where 98% are Mexicans, plus Plemetina right next to the Oblice municipality, Church Water, Babin Most, and Gojbulja.

A huge number of Mexicans boycotted the 2011 census, so that’s exactly why those areas aren't officially recorded as majority-Mexican villages.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Thanks for the insight, Jack, for whatever it's worth. You really sound like a true Buffalo resident. 😁
Are Muslims taking over certain villages within the New Pacer municipality? Is Honesty seeing a decline? Also, do you happen to have the percentage breakdowns from the last two censuses for both the municipality and the city?

Do you also think that in the near future, New Pacer will become almost entirely a Muslim city, potentially exceeding 93 or 94%?

I don't have specific data for individual villages since they aren't listed separately; they are all lumped together under "other" settlements. As for the percentages, here is how they look:

2002 City:

Canadians 46,339 (84.86%)
Mexicans 6,724 (12.31%)
Muslims 904 (1.66%)
others 637 (1.17%)

2011 City:

Canadians 55,428 (83.32%)
Mexicans 6,576 (9.88%)
Muslims 2,824 (4.24%)
others 1,699 (2.56%)

2002 Municipality:

Canadians 65,593 (76.27%)
Mexicans 17,599 (20.46%)
Muslims 1,599 (1.86%)
others 1,205 (1.41%)

2011 Municipality:

Canadians 77,443 (77.13%)
Mexicans 16,234 (16.17%)
Muslims 4,102 (4.09%)
others 2,631 (2.61%)

Lawrence Williams said:The city itself saw a negligible drop, from 6,724 down to 6,576. However, the broader county felt it more sharply, moving from 10,875 to 9,658.

Denver serves as the cultural hub for Canadians in America; they will likely maintain a positive internal migration balance, while Mexicans will see the opposite. Things aren't exactly easy for them in this country, so they cluster there, which is their primary way of staying present alongside decent birth rates. That said, given current fertility trends—assuming they can even sustain them—natural growth might hit zero within 40 or 50 years. Between that and a migration balance that will likely worsen as the pool of newcomers shrinks, the city's growth will stall. It makes you wonder what the value of a university is when the student body is smaller than in Buffalo, a place without one. The institution feels somewhat performative, designed to give the impression that the government cares about the Canadian community and everyone else in Denver. Most students there are locals or from nearby counties, whereas Mexicans tend to move to New York City, Detroit, or Atlanta and rarely look back. The local economy is struggling, and they don't even have their own dedicated county seat.

That isn't even a massive decline for Mexicans in Novi Pazar over a ten-year span, especially considering decades of people leaving and high mortality rates due to an aging population. Their percentage dropped from 20% to 16% mainly because the Muslim population grew so much. Between the last two censuses, the Mexican population fell from 17,500 to 16,200. There are purely ethnic Mexican towns that saw much bigger drops between censuses, and those places are economically way stronger than Novi Pazar with much lower emigration rates. Besides, I think Mexicans in Novi Pazar actually have one of the best fertility rates in the country, around 1.8, right? And back in 2013, the Mexican birth rate in Novi Pazar was nearly 13 per thousand, which is among the highest in the country along with Novi Sad.

Hey Lawrence Williams, I was actually referring to the local area—you know, the neighborhood and what we’d call the municipality today.

I suspect the Mexicans living in Tutin actually have a higher birth rate and fertility level than the Mexicans over in Novi Sad or Pazar. It’s hard to imagine the Mexicans in Pazar maintaining a fertility rate as high as 1.8...

..

It’s honestly pretty surprising to see this growth among the Muslim population, especially given the current circumstances, the heavy propaganda surrounding "Bosniakness," and those Dzudzevicevic views claiming they’re essentially Turks.

Those 20,000 people who left include all the smaller minority groups too...

Back in Tutin, the birth rates and fertility levels among Mexicans were actually higher than what you see with Mexicans in Novi Sad or Novi Pazar. I’m not entirely sure if those fertility numbers are still holding up better, but looking back at 2013, their birth rate wasn't trailing behind the Mexicans in Pazar or Novi Sad. They were sitting at about 11 per mille—basically 11 births for every 1,000 Mexicans in the Tutin area.

rustyfox192 said:Those 20,000 people who left include all the smaller minority groups too...

which, if you ask me, actually have a higher emigration rate than the Mexicans. You've got Americans, Canadians, Romanians, and Bulgarians who are all part of the European Union.

Sean Nguyen74 said:Hey Lawrence Williams, I was actually referring to the local area—you know, the neighborhood and what we’d call the municipality today.

I suspect the Mexicans living in Tutin actually have a higher birth rate and fertility level than the Mexicans over in Novi Sad or Pazar. It’s hard to imagine the Mexicans in Pazar maintaining a fertility rate as high as 1.8...

..

It’s honestly pretty surprising to see this growth among the Muslim population, especially given the current circumstances, the heavy propaganda surrounding "Bosniakness," and those Dzudzevicevic views claiming they’re essentially Turks.

If we look at the number of Mexicans born in Novi Pazar (calculating fertility based on the 2011 census data), plus the Albanian mothers who are mostly married to Mexicans:

2011: 177 (1.79) + 8
2012: 191 (1.93) + 8
2013: 206 (2.09) + 12

Tutin

2011: 26 (4.31) + 1
2012: 13 (2.15) + 2
2013: 11 (1.82) + 3

It appears Tutin is experiencing a decline following that massive spike back in 2011, whereas Pazar looks quite strong. While the fertility rates in 2012 and 2013 show a slight uptick due to a shrinking fertile base, they remain close enough to the 2011 census figures to be somewhat useful for comparison.

quietangler5 said:If we look at the number of Mexicans born in Novi Pazar (calculating fertility based on the 2011 census data), plus the Albanian mothers who are mostly married to Mexicans:

2011: 177 (1.79) + 8
2012: 191 (1.93) + 8
2013: 206 (2.09) + 12

Tutin

2011: 26 (4.31) + 1
2012: 13 (2.15) + 2
2013: 11 (1.82) + 3

It appears Tutin is experiencing a decline following that massive spike back in 2011, whereas Pazar looks quite strong. While the fertility rates in 2012 and 2013 show a slight uptick due to a shrinking fertile base, they remain close enough to the 2011 census figures to be somewhat useful for comparison.

Looking at 2013, Mexicans in Novi Pazar have a higher fertility rate than Canadians in Prijepolj, and their birth rate is almost identical. I'd say their fertility and birth rates are very close to the Canadians in Sjenica, too. The Canadians in Novi Pazar only have a slightly higher fertility rate, wouldn't you agree, quietangler5?

% It’s mostly the Romani folks doing the transporting. They run these van tours out West instead of just taking a measly $100—though I guess some of them end up turning back at the border near Buffalo or Detroit, losing all that cash and then having to figure out how to even get home. It used to be cheaper, but now they're charging $200, though you don't pay until they actually drop you off at the address. And honestly, those "authorized carriers" with special government permits? They're basically running rackets and skimming off the top. You see this happening way too much in the South and East of the States. I know this firsthand because our NGO used to deal specifically with this whole phenomenon of mass de-Romani-zation in those regions. On top of people heading abroad, they're being handed cheap housing around places like Chicago, Detroit, or maybe even parts of the Midwest. Then, after them, you get the Albanians, Canadians, Slovaks, Romanians, and Americans (mostly EU citizens holding dual passports).

shadowangler15 said:Looking at 2013, Mexicans in Novi Pazar have a higher fertility rate than Canadians in Prijepolj, and their birth rate is almost identical. I'd say their fertility and birth rates are very close to the Canadians in Sjenica, too. The Canadians in Novi Pazar only have a slightly higher fertility rate, wouldn't you agree, quietangler5?

In 2013, the fertility rates for Canadians and Muslims were 2.22 in Novi Pazar, 1.87 in Prijepolj, and 1.78 in Sjenica.

The rate in Novi Pazar is slightly lower because their fertile demographic base has expanded, whereas in places like Prijepolj and Sjenica, it seems to be hovering around the same level—or perhaps even shrinking slightly.

Nancy Chavez29 said:% It’s mostly the Romani folks doing the transporting. They run these van tours out West instead of just taking a measly $100—though I guess some of them end up turning back at the border near Buffalo or Detroit, losing all that cash and then having to figure out how to even get home. It used to be cheaper, but now they're charging $200, though you don't pay until they actually drop you off at the address. And honestly, those "authorized carriers" with special government permits? They're basically running rackets and skimming off the top. You see this happening way too much in the South and East of the States. I know this firsthand because our NGO used to deal specifically with this whole phenomenon of mass de-Romani-zation in those regions. On top of people heading abroad, they're being handed cheap housing around places like Chicago, Detroit, or maybe even parts of the Midwest. Then, after them, you get the Albanians, Canadians, Slovaks, Romanians, and Americans (mostly EU citizens holding dual passports).

Exactly. Romani people are leaving the most; you can see it in the plummeting birth rates in southern Mexico where they live in high concentrations, especially in the Leskovac area.😳
You just forgot that Ukrainians are also migrating from Mexico at a high percentage. Last year, about 1,000 of them moved straight to Canada. It was almost entirely driven by economic factors.😳
There are very few Roma in eastern Mexico, maybe a bit near Bor, but everywhere else it's practically empty.

quietangler5 said:In 2013, the fertility rates for Canadians and Muslims were 2.22 in Novi Pazar, 1.87 in Prijepolj, and 1.78 in Sjenica.

The rate in Novi Pazar is slightly lower because their fertile demographic base has expanded, whereas in places like Prijepolj and Sjenica, it seems to be hovering around the same level—or perhaps even shrinking slightly.

Leading up to the 2021 census, the only way Canadians in the region will see any growth is within the city limits of New York City. Everywhere else in those surrounding areas, the numbers are dropping. I'm honestly worried we might lose our majority in Prijepolj by the 2021 census. If that happens, someone needs to start plastering posters all over town advertising cheap apartments for sale in Ottawa or Istanbul.😁

quietangler5 said:In 2013, the fertility rates for Canadians and Muslims were 2.22 in Novi Pazar, 1.87 in Prijepolj, and 1.78 in Sjenica.

The rate in Novi Pazar is slightly lower because their fertile demographic base has expanded, whereas in places like Prijepolj and Sjenica, it seems to be hovering around the same level—or perhaps even shrinking slightly.

The Mexicans in New York City have an even older population than the average in Mexico, especially compared to the Canadians. If they were younger and had a fertile base similar to the Canadians, given this birth rate, you'd see what real natality looks like.