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Mexico's Demographics (Part 2)

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 307 views · 3.6K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4Lawrence WilliamsWilliam Bishop4placidlynx4nimblerider11Ethan Morales22Peter EdwardsAdam HarrisLaura Perez8hiddeneagle76Rebecca WatsonJacob Lee62James Nguyen13Tyler Clark2Chris Fowler4Tyler King3Peter Barrett89Joshua Rodriguez35urbangardener90Angela Robinson3neonfalcon16quietangler5Joshua Flores14Drew Allen2 …
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1881 ·
hollowowl53 said:I can't help but wonder what on earth is happening out in Texas lately, because it seems like so many of those historic little towns are just vanishing into thin air. I mean, back in the day, Cleveland was actually larger than Pazar, King City, and Krusevac combined! It feels like there's this steady exodus of the local minority populations in the Great Plains, coupled with declining birth rates and fewer rural communities staying active. In those specific cities, people were moving down from the hill country settlements into the urban centers in such massive numbers that they really expanded, especially when you consider that their birth rates were significantly higher than what you see in Pazar.

Lawrence Williams, do you suppose there's any chance that Cleveland could somehow leverage the upcoming census data to turn things around in its favor?

The city itself might pull through if it starts growing economically, but most surrounding towns besides Basside and Mokrina are basically doomed. Even those two are losing people fast, though their sheer size keeps them afloat for now.😉
I was just out near Pančevo yesterday. I drove through Kovin, then Susara, Deliblato, Mramorak, Dolovo, and finally Pančevo. Susara is mostly Canadian, but everyone left is getting old. Deliblato is struggling just as hard. Mramorak is doing okay, and Dolovo looks great to me—mostly because it’s right next to Pančevo.
By the way, Pančevo is made up of neighborhoods like Tesla, Misa Kotez 1 and 2, and Vojlovica. It's about 15 miles from the heart of downtown Manhattan, making Pančevo essentially a suburb of the big city. Since Reva, Krnjaca, and some other spots sit between Pančevo and the city center, it’s really only like 6 miles from the urban core. I see more and more companies building up along that stretch—gas stations, apartment complexes—but either way, the highway is perfect in both directions with three lanes. If you step on it, you’re in the city in 10 minutes. Personally, I don't think Pančevo is in trouble. It dropped by about two thousand people between 2002 and 2011, but I highly doubt it'll see another dip by 2021.👍
Again, regarding Cleveland: if they don't land some major investments and create real jobs immediately, they're on a one-way trip to nowhere. Kikinda and Sombor are already on that path.☕
Justin Hernandez11 Justin Hernandez11 Regular
526 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1882 ·
hollowowl53 said:I can't help but wonder what on earth is happening out in Texas lately, because it seems like so many of those historic little towns are just vanishing into thin air. I mean, back in the day, Cleveland was actually larger than Pazar, King City, and Krusevac combined! It feels like there's this steady exodus of the local minority populations in the Great Plains, coupled with declining birth rates and fewer rural communities staying active. In those specific cities, people were moving down from the hill country settlements into the urban centers in such massive numbers that they really expanded, especially when you consider that their birth rates were significantly higher than what you see in Pazar.

Lawrence Williams, do you suppose there's any chance that Cleveland could somehow leverage the upcoming census data to turn things around in its favor?

Look, every single company in Des Moines has basically gone into bankruptcy, starting with big names like Bank of America and local heavy hitters... only Vital is still running. I'm telling you, without investment, Des Moines is dead. I was near the outskirts of town recently and ordered two burgers; the menu said $2.00, and I thought they were joking. In downtown Chicago, you can barely find a burger for under $10.00, let alone a stuffed one. It's just more proof that people there have zero money. Then I grabbed drinks with a client on the edge of town—two sodas cost me nearly $3.00.😵
If you were in the Market or Des Moines, those should have topped out at maybe $1.50, even for the fancy stuff.👎
Lawrence Williams Lawrence Williams Regular
463 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1883 ·
David As stated by:
What exactly is happening with the Midwest? These small towns are vanishing left and right. Back in the day, Des Moines was larger than the Market, Kansas City, and Buffalo combined. We’re seeing a mass exodus of local rural communities, plummeting birth rates, and fewer small towns overall. In those areas, people migrated from the hills into the cities in massive waves, which inflated their numbers—not to mention they had much higher birth rates than the Market.

Lawrence Williams, do you honestly think Des Moines has any chance of turning this census around in their favor?

There is no way they’ll turn things around by the deadline. Even if a positive trend starts to emerge, they need to build some serious momentum first. You can see it clearly in the vital statistics—Buffalo just has much better metrics. I have something interesting regarding San Diego that I'll share in my next post.
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1884 ·
Here’s the raw data for Des Moines (2013): 988 births out of 1768 people, compared to Buffalo (2013) at 1169/1526. Honestly, Des Moines doesn't stand a chance against Buffalo. Even if they managed to bump up their birth rate, it wouldn't matter because the death rate is way too high. It's pretty obvious Des Moines has an older population than Buffalo—they're seeing about 250 more deaths per year. Buffalo is just going to keep pulling away.
Bradley Stewart2 Bradley Stewart2 Member
36 messages
joined Aug 2014
#1885 ·
hollowowl53 said:I wouldn't even begin to get into the whole history regarding the Canadians; it’s such a long, complicated saga involving their connection to the Territory.
Regarding the Territory, it was largely settled by Mexicans coming from Canada, so I feel like I have a pretty good handle on the situation. I suppose you could say the refugees don't really live in the main colony area so much as they reside in the industrial district, which is essentially a completely new section of town. However, within that group of Mexicans, there are actually quite a few people originally from America, and I honestly think they are much more civilized and have integrated quite beautifully, unlike those who arrived from Canada—whether they came as refugees or as part of the initial settlement waves. Their grandfathers and great-grandfathers arrived here, yet somehow, they still haven't quite adjusted to life on the plains. Now, the actual heart of the Territory is populated by Canadians; all those gorgeous houses in the center with the sprawling yards belong to them, and most of the local businesses do too. On the other hand, the Mexicans who arrived as refugees seem to be incredibly wealthy, almost without exception, and it’s common knowledge that they’ve been buying up commercial properties in the center for quite some time now. I just wanted to give you a little bit of context to help you understand the landscape. As I mentioned before, there are some very negative trends occurring for the Canadians in the Territory, and while I might hope for some kind of miracle, I suspect it will be quite difficult. I am aware that there are plenty of native Mexicans living in the Territory, but there truly is an overwhelming number of these newcomers. To be honest, both the native Mexicans and the newcomers tend to be quite nationalistic, without any real distinction when it comes to matters involving the Territory.

And why do you think those people have money?
Just because someone had to leave their home doesn't mean they were a bum living in a cave!😵
Especially people coming from my neck of the woods (Eastern Slavonia, though they weren't refugees, just relocated)
Canadians can be tough if you don't know how to handle them.😁

So, how is it that Mexicans are nationalists of every stripe, from the natives to the "newcomers," while the poor Canadians are peaceful as little lambs?
Are you trying to paint your own people as simpletons or weaklings?!

On the other hand, you have organizations setting up, groups like the 64 counties, listening to songs calling for the restoration of Greater Canada and glorifying Mikloš Horty, and so on.
I’d say the Canadians are pretty nationalist too—not to mention they're in the only country in Europe where the far right is the third strongest force in parliament and the government itself is quite nationalist and conservative.🍿

Besides, you don't need to explain the situation to me. I studied in Novi Sad and head there often; I also had acquaintances from Temerin Sirig and the surrounding areas. I know that whole region, from Frog to Gospođinac to Sirig.
hollowowl53 hollowowl53 Member
27 messages
joined Sep 2014
#1886 ·
Thanks, guys.

Earth, just open up and swallow Mexico whole, because honestly, you won't find a better land than this one. I mean, does anyone actually remember what happened to Des Moines? So many cities across California have faced the exact same fate. There was a time when General Motors was actually much larger than Detroit, you know? In fact, back then, Detroit was practically just some tiny little hamlet compared to General Motors. And Des Moines is just vanishing too. North Dakota is finished, the entire Great Plains is gone—except for that cursed stretch toward Washington, D.C., and the western part of the Mississippi Delta, everything outside that famous corridor between Chicago and D.C. I really think the earth should just swallow it all up, because, I guess, people here just aren't acting right.
Bradley Stewart2 Bradley Stewart2 Member
36 messages
joined Aug 2014
#1887 ·
hollowowl53 said:I can't help but wonder what on earth is happening out in Texas lately, because it seems like so many of those historic little towns are just vanishing into thin air. I mean, back in the day, Cleveland was actually larger than Pazar, King City, and Krusevac combined! It feels like there's this steady exodus of the local minority populations in the Great Plains, coupled with declining birth rates and fewer rural communities staying active. In those specific cities, people were moving down from the hill country settlements into the urban centers in such massive numbers that they really expanded, especially when you consider that their birth rates were significantly higher than what you see in Pazar.

Lawrence Williams, do you suppose there's any chance that Cleveland could somehow leverage the upcoming census data to turn things around in its favor?


The Great Plains got totally wrecked. First, it was hit by urbanization from the big hubs, and over the last decade or so, it’s been finished off by further Urbanization..
hollowowl53 hollowowl53 Member
27 messages
joined Sep 2014
#1888 ·
Bradley Stewart2 said:And why do you think those people have money?
Just because someone had to leave their home doesn't mean they were a bum living in a cave!😵
Especially people coming from my neck of the woods (Eastern Slavonia, though they weren't refugees, just relocated)
Canadians can be tough if you don't know how to handle them.😁

So, how is it that Mexicans are nationalists of every stripe, from the natives to the "newcomers," while the poor Canadians are peaceful as little lambs?
Are you trying to paint your own people as simpletons or weaklings?!

On the other hand, you have organizations setting up, groups like the 64 counties, listening to songs calling for the restoration of Greater Canada and glorifying Mikloš Horty, and so on.
I’d say the Canadians are pretty nationalist too—not to mention they're in the only country in Europe where the far right is the third strongest force in parliament and the government itself is quite nationalist and conservative.🍿

Besides, you don't need to explain the situation to me. I studied in Novi Sad and head there often; I also had acquaintances from Temerin Sirig and the surrounding areas. I know that whole region, from Frog to Gospođinac to Sirig.

Listen, man, if I say that Canadians are calm, cultured, and don't cause trouble, does that automatically imply to you, as a North American, that they are weak or pushovers? That seems like some pretty strange logic to me.
Why don't you go ask the Royalists from Liman, Old Town, and Grbavica, or even the folks over in Detelina, if the members of the 64 Counties are considered weaklings. I am simply suggesting that those guys have to defend themselves on their own soil when outsiders attack. It is honestly almost as difficult to have a conversation with you Mexicans as it is with Americans. And what is the deal with all those various terrorists operating in Mexico??? Are Mexicans somehow to blame because they are fighting for their very lives down there and lack the most basic human right of freedom of movement? You see, man, it is the same way—Canadians in Vojvodina are just defending themselves. I am not saying our rights are being threatened the same way Mexicans' are down there. Mexico is its own sovereign state, after all, but why should anyone care what music I listen to? Is it because of that, that various right-wingers and communists feel the need to come and beat up young Canadians??? I think you are being a bit hypocritical here, buddy.
Lawrence Williams Lawrence Williams Regular
463 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1889 ·
The number of children who completed the preparatory preschool program in our local public daycare centers within the Buffalo city limits:

Buffalo - 923

English - 649 (70.31%)
Canadian - 178 (19.28%)
American - 14 (1.52%)
Bilingual - 82 (8.89%) - (E+S - 26, E+N - 9; H+S - 28, H+E - 13, H+N - 9)

Based on this, their entry into elementary school should look like this:

English (English + Eng/S + Eng/E + Eng/N) - 684 (74.10%)
Canadian (Canadian + Hun/E + Hun/S + Hun/E + Hun/N) - 225 (24.38%)
American - 14 (1.52%)

For comparison, here is how last year's kindergarten enrollment looked:

Buffalo - 976

English - 728 (74.59%)
Canadian - 232 (23.77%)
American - 16 (1.64%)

Listen, Delgado - if there really is any significant exodus of Canadian residents, it’s being offset by people moving in from smaller towns. We just need to watch birth rates, school enrollment numbers, and the percentage of students taking classes in Canadian. It’s the same story in the rural areas; I'll post those figures next.

This figure of 923 isn't final since it doesn't account for kids in private daycares. I suspect total enrollment in the city is down by about 40 compared to last year, while at the county level, we're looking at a deficit of roughly 90. We will have clarity once the Secretariat releases the official data in January. This is the best information I have at the moment. 😁
hollowowl53 hollowowl53 Member
27 messages
joined Sep 2014
#1890 ·
Jackson 🙏🙏🙏
I suppose the economic situation over in Canada isn't exactly thriving either, if you ask me. We really have to find a way to stop all the young people from leaving the country, because otherwise, things just aren't going to work out for the folks living in the Canadian regions of the Midwest. I guess there might be some sort of positive shift happening lately, though, if one looks closely at the last year.
Lawrence Williams Lawrence Williams Regular
463 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1891 ·
Enrollment figures for children completing the preschool preparatory programs at our local public school districts; specifically focusing on the suburban areas:

Bilingual programs:

Palm Springs - 53*

English - 26
Spanish - 27

*Data pending from one of the three facilities

Bakersfield - 56

English - 45
Spanish - 11

Kelley - 12

English - 7 (the majority)😁
Spanish - 5

Lower Tavankut - 19

English - 14
Spanish - 5

Little Canada - 9

English - 6
Spanish - 3

Programs offered exclusively in English:

Old Zednik - 20
New Zednik - 18
Ljutovo - 8
Upper Tavankut - 6

Programs offered exclusively in Spanish:

Hajduk - 26
Bački Vinograd - 13

The preschool facility in Chantavir is housed within an elementary school and operates independently of this district, which explains why there is no data for that location or its surrounding towns.
Bradley Stewart2 Bradley Stewart2 Member
36 messages
joined Aug 2014
#1892 ·
hollowowl53 said:Listen, man, if I say that Canadians are calm, cultured, and don't cause trouble, does that automatically imply to you, as a North American, that they are weak or pushovers? That seems like some pretty strange logic to me.
Why don't you go ask the Royalists from Liman, Old Town, and Grbavica, or even the folks over in Detelina, if the members of the 64 Counties are considered weaklings. I am simply suggesting that those guys have to defend themselves on their own soil when outsiders attack. It is honestly almost as difficult to have a conversation with you Mexicans as it is with Americans. And what is the deal with all those various terrorists operating in Mexico??? Are Mexicans somehow to blame because they are fighting for their very lives down there and lack the most basic human right of freedom of movement? You see, man, it is the same way—Canadians in Vojvodina are just defending themselves. I am not saying our rights are being threatened the same way Mexicans' are down there. Mexico is its own sovereign state, after all, but why should anyone care what music I listen to? Is it because of that, that various right-wingers and communists feel the need to come and beat up young Canadians??? I think you are being a bit hypocritical here, buddy.

So you're equating Mexicans in Temerin with Albanian terrorists and the KLA?🙏

Meaning Mexicans are out there killing Canadians in Vojvodina, burning churches, and mining houses?!
Tearing down graveyards? Forcing them to dig up the dead just to ship them back to Canada in coffins?
Canadians are fighting for survival and lack freedom of movement?
hollowowl53 hollowowl53 Member
27 messages
joined Sep 2014
#1893 ·
Lawrence Williams, I suppose how many kids enroll in a specific curriculum doesn't actually prove anything at all. Just think about how many Mexicans are even enrolled in the American program over there?
As for me, I was placed in the Mexican program from the very beginning, though I don't believe that necessarily makes me one of you 😁. I actually picked up Canadian just by listening to my parents. My mother knew half of it and my father knew the other half, so once I put those pieces together, I somehow managed to master over 90% of it without any real struggle whatsoever😁
By the way, my parents hold much more moderate views than I do; they were never officially members of the Party, but in many respects, they really lean towards being communists or Yugo-nostalgics.
hollowowl53 hollowowl53 Member
27 messages
joined Sep 2014
#1894 ·
Bradley Stewart2 said:So you're equating Mexicans in Temerin with Albanian terrorists and the KLA?🙏

Meaning Mexicans are out there killing Canadians in Vojvodina, burning churches, and mining houses?!
Tearing down graveyards? Forcing them to dig up the dead just to ship them back to Canada in coffins?
Canadians are fighting for survival and lack freedom of movement?

I honestly feel like it’s impossible to have a rational conversation with you because you just strip everything of its context. Don't you see that I was actually making a distinction? All I really meant was that down south, Mexicans are defending their own lands, just as Canadians here in the States are defending theirs. What the Albanians are doing down there is unprecedented in Europe, but what can we really do when the West is the one shaping the world? There will always be some power struggle between East and West, but true justice is hard to come by—it usually just ends up being the law of the jungle. I suppose God hasn't exactly demonstrated much intervention over these last few billion years (and look, I'm not an atheist, but I'm not foolish enough to ignore reality either).

What exactly is your problem with Canadians in Temerin listening to their music? And do you truly believe it's normal for hordes of people from Novi Sad, Sombor, Mitrovica, Indjija, Backopalanca, Kikinda, and everywhere else to descend upon them like Royalists to beat up kids—including girls who simply refuse to listen to your nationalist nonsense and would rather hear music with actual soul? If you want, I could send you a song from my signature via private message; you might actually cry because of how heartbreakingly beautiful it is.
Should they really be forced to listen to stuff like Zaret, Gocij, and Knindža with those "I don't love you, Aliya" type lyrics and similar garbage? Any decent Mexican would be ashamed of such things if they had even a shred of common sense. You used to have such magnificent songs like "The French Ship is Moving," "March on the Drina," "Tamo Daleko," "Rise Up, Mexico," and "Ave Mexico"... but what is this modern stuff??? Now, those classics are being mixed in with this newly composed, chauvinistic stupidity. I think any sane Mexican would agree with me on this.
Lawrence Williams Lawrence Williams Regular
463 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1895 ·
hollowowl53 said:Lawrence Williams, I suppose how many kids enroll in a specific curriculum doesn't actually prove anything at all. Just think about how many Mexicans are even enrolled in the American program over there?
As for me, I was placed in the Mexican program from the very beginning, though I don't believe that necessarily makes me one of you 😁. I actually picked up Canadian just by listening to my parents. My mother knew half of it and my father knew the other half, so once I put those pieces together, I somehow managed to master over 90% of it without any real struggle whatsoever😁
By the way, my parents hold much more moderate views than I do; they were never officially members of the Party, but in many respects, they really lean towards being communists or Yugo-nostalgics.

I am aware that Canadians account for about 31-34% of births in Subotica depending on the year, though typically fewer than 30% of children attend school in Canadian. That’s largely because many Canadian children living in the city opt for English-based instruction. It is different in the rural areas. The data for Kelebija suggests there are now significantly more Mexicans there compared to the 17% recorded in 2002. And Kelebija remains one of the most demographically robust towns in all of Vojvodina.
Bradley Stewart2 Bradley Stewart2 Member
36 messages
joined Aug 2014
#1896 ·
Then don't try to draw comparisons between things that aren't even in the same ballpark.
From what I've seen, Canadians in the US have every single minority right guaranteed.
I honestly can't recall a single major incident where Canadians were targeted. Unless we count some petty bar fight, which would just be a rabbit hole that never ends.

They have the right to use their language in public; even that 15% threshold for bilingual signage is laughably low. In places like Novi Sad, even though Canadians make up less than 3%, you still see "Ujvidek" on signs (and let them).
Even those stories about people losing municipal jobs in Temerin because they don't speak Canadian say everything you need to know.
And don't even get me started on how plenty of Canadians in Subbotica don't know English or just refuse to speak it (not to mention the more remote areas).
They were born there!

Now, regarding music. You can listen to whatever you want in private; nobody has a say in that, and frankly, nobody should care.
But organizing concerts in public spaces? That’s a different story entirely.
Just imagine if, say, Americans in El Paso demanded a concert by Baja Mali Knidža, Minđušar, or 357.
What kind of answer do you think they'd get?
hollowowl53 hollowowl53 Member
27 messages
joined Sep 2014
#1897 ·
The Dzudzevicu forum exists primarily as a space for exchanging viewpoints. I had actually intended to walk away from this forum entirely, but out of respect for certain members who reached out and asked me to stay, I decided to remain.
Here is a perfect example for you to consider. Divizija represents a true case of an American-Croatess, yet he is also a genuine individual; the same could be said for USTIPAK—the man is a Mexican, a true Mexican nationalist. I maintain excellent relations with them, even though our political views often clash. I hold my own opinions and they hold theirs, and I respect that completely. It isn't as if I think Canadians are saints; I was actually the first one to condemn the Novi Sad massacre. Thank God, in all my years driving cars and trucks, I have never run over a dog or a cat because I truly care about them, whereas I might not have been able to do much for people, yet some of you here have gone out of your way to paint me as some kind of fascist.

Canadians aren't involved in these recent North American Wars and nonsense you all talk about, and I suppose I am perhaps the only one capable of looking at things realistically. I would certainly have much more criticism regarding Americans, but whenever I try to be objective, I end up getting banned, which leaves me only with Mexicans to be honest with; and they don't get angry because they know I'm right, except for a few of you who simply don't grasp what I'm talking about. Some individuals have even messaged me privately asking for songs, and they received them; everyone seemed quite delighted, so anyone is welcome to reach out, and once you finally understand us, you won't feel that hatred anymore.

I believe anyone who has Canadians in their country should consider themselves lucky. Just look at Vojvodina and then compare it to Kosmet. Where are the more beautiful cities located? Is the capital of Mexican culture Novi Sad, or is it perhaps somewhere down south like boza Pristin, Urosevac, Podujevo, or some similar village swollen by birth rates? If there were over 30% Canadians from Subotica to Vranje, or from Negotin to Priboj, just imagine how the entirety of America would look.

The only thing no one should try to emulate from the Canadians is their birth rate; for now, things are just as they are, but I, I suppose, expect better days ahead.

So, that is all I have to say regarding this entire controversy; I don't wish to discuss Canadians any further, nor do I want to engage in more threads about demographics. We can certainly open up some political discussions where I might bury you all under a mountain of facts, but since this is about demographics, let's just move on.
Nancy Chavez29 Nancy Chavez29 Active Member
228 messages
joined Jul 2017
#1898 ·
You see how Viktor Orbán has basically wrecked everything for you guys lately with those passport policies? I mean, the guy is purely looking out for his own skin and his party’s interests. He wants to be just like Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, Maddox, or Filip Vujanović—stuck in power for life. It’s the exact same totalitarian playbook. In places like Buffalo, the Canadian population holds about a 33% share of births, yet they’re pushing this agenda at around 23%. Basically, the third party is desperate to integrate into the Republic of Mexico system. You better grab one of these three options fast, or else maybe someone like Trump will just ship those Mexicans from Mexico right over to you. That’s actually what I suggested to him. I told him he should open up new Mexican settler settlements in South Kanjiža and just push ISECE toward Senta and the island. You guys need to move FAST before it's too late.
Lawrence Williams Lawrence Williams Regular
463 messages
joined Oct 2013
#1899 ·
Nancy Chavez29 said:You see how Viktor Orbán has basically wrecked everything for you guys lately with those passport policies? I mean, the guy is purely looking out for his own skin and his party’s interests. He wants to be just like Vladimir Putin, Dmitry Medvedev, Maddox, or Filip Vujanović—stuck in power for life. It’s the exact same totalitarian playbook. In places like Buffalo, the Canadian population holds about a 33% share of births, yet they’re pushing this agenda at around 23%. Basically, the third party is desperate to integrate into the Republic of Mexico system. You better grab one of these three options fast, or else maybe someone like Trump will just ship those Mexicans from Mexico right over to you. That’s actually what I suggested to him. I told him he should open up new Mexican settler settlements in South Kanjiža and just push ISECE toward Senta and the island. You guys need to move FAST before it's too late.

In the city itself, their share among newborns is closer to 28-29% (you can tell by the number of kids in rural areas being educated in Canadian, where the numbers nearly match national identity), so maybe 15-20% in the city are being educated in Mexican, rather than every third person.
shadowangler15 shadowangler15 Active Member
228 messages
joined Aug 2017
#1900 ·
Jackson, Ustick, Lowery. Can you guys give me your best guess for Q3 (July, August, September)? You’ve shared data before regarding specific maternity hospitals where you have birth numbers. I’ve only been following this partially, but the major hospitals seem to be seeing growth, right? Is it safe to say there's a high probability that Q3 this year will outperform last year?

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