Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

analogbear5 said:Honestly, I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or just messing with me.

I’m being serious.
I don't know whether to laugh or cry.
A colleague of mine actually gets annoyed when I mention that because of the sanctions, Russia can't even produce cars with basic ABS or air conditioning... he refuses to believe the "propaganda" he keeps hearing.

I honestly think there are way more pro-Russian warmongers lurking around than I ever gave them credit for.

The war in Ukraine is such an undeniable act of aggression—it’s actually mind-boggling to me how any sane person could attempt to justify this Russian invasion.

And don't even get me started on the sheer number of people who outright support it.

Christian Torres3 said:Economics is pretty straightforward stuff—it's obvious Russia can't keep up this kind of defense for the ruble in the long run.

Europe is going to get screwed. There’s zero debate there. It’ll be interesting to see this fall come what may—whether anything is left of European unity or if more countries start following Canada's lead.

Just a rhetorical question here: is a single nation stronger, or a union of states?

I am certainly not suggesting you are wrong, but they were predicted to collapse much sooner than this, so what actually happened?

Regarding this, I have one rhetorical question: is it better to have a single powerful nation or a coalition of states?

If that coalition of states is too fragmented by individual interests, then a single nation is far superior. 😉

Bryan Booth82 said:Ebote, honestly, since I started following the "Russia and everything surrounding it" thread a few years back, all I’ve read are endless predictions and forecasts about how Europe is going to collapse, starve, freeze, and die...🤔🤔

What do you guys think? Can we get a rough consensus here? Like, give me a ballpark estimate of when this is actually going to happen... just so I know whether I should pack my bags or stay put...

Best,

Who exactly are "you guys"? 🤷

I don't know where you reside, but here in the US, fuel prices without intervention would have soared past $5.25. Andrej Plenković and Ursula von der Leyen have repeatedly suggested that we might face reductions in everything during the winter months.

If these price hikes continue, do you honestly believe this sense of European unity will hold up? Not a chance. Even the Germans are already hedging their bets, wondering what will happen when the situation truly turns sour.

And I fail to understand why there is such a desperate need to attack anyone who doesn't blindly swallow these narratives about a looming Russian collapse and a mighty European Union. If the EU were truly powerful, they never would have allowed themselves to get into this position. We must accept the reality that they are being led by amateurs and cowards—mere bureaucratic rats who can't see two feet in front of them. Because if they could, they wouldn't have permitted this. And it isn't as if they weren't warned.

Vladimir Putin made his first move regarding Ukraine nearly a decade ago, and since then, what has actually been done to ensure energy independence? Absolutely nothing. There was plenty of talk and lofty rhetoric, but the actual problems were simply swept under the rug.

Jacob Kern2 said:I am certainly not suggesting you are wrong, but they were predicted to collapse much sooner than this, so what actually happened?

Regarding this, I have one rhetorical question: is it better to have a single powerful nation or a coalition of states?

If that coalition of states is too fragmented by individual interests, then a single nation is far superior. 😉

Who exactly are "you guys"? 🤷

I don't know where you reside, but here in the US, fuel prices without intervention would have soared past $5.25. Andrej Plenković and Ursula von der Leyen have repeatedly suggested that we might face reductions in everything during the winter months.

If these price hikes continue, do you honestly believe this sense of European unity will hold up? Not a chance. Even the Germans are already hedging their bets, wondering what will happen when the situation truly turns sour.

And I fail to understand why there is such a desperate need to attack anyone who doesn't blindly swallow these narratives about a looming Russian collapse and a mighty European Union. If the EU were truly powerful, they never would have allowed themselves to get into this position. We must accept the reality that they are being led by amateurs and cowards—mere bureaucratic rats who can't see two feet in front of them. Because if they could, they wouldn't have permitted this. And it isn't as if they weren't warned.

Vladimir Putin made his first move regarding Ukraine nearly a decade ago, and since then, what has actually been done to ensure energy independence? Absolutely nothing. There was plenty of talk and lofty rhetoric, but the actual problems were simply swept under the rug.

The main argument has been the same for ages:

- They predicted Russia would fall apart.
- Russia didn't fall apart.
- Therefore, sanctions don't work.

Sanctions weren't designed to make Russia implode.

analogbear5 said:The main argument has been the same for ages:

- They predicted Russia would fall apart.
- Russia didn't fall apart.
- Therefore, sanctions don't work.

Sanctions weren't designed to make Russia implode.

When people talk about the "collapse" of Russia, they are speaking figuratively. The strategic objective behind imposing sanctions is to cripple the Russian economy to such an extent that they lose the capacity to sustain a war. So far, that specific goal has not been realized.

I am not suggesting it won't happen eventually, but as things stand right now, it simply hasn't occurred.

Jacob Kern2 said:When people talk about the "collapse" of Russia, they are speaking figuratively. The strategic objective behind imposing sanctions is to cripple the Russian economy to such an extent that they lose the capacity to sustain a war. So far, that specific goal has not been realized.

I am not suggesting it won't happen eventually, but as things stand right now, it simply hasn't occurred.

Sanctions are a long-term game, but they work both ways. They hurt everyone—both the target and the ones imposing them. It really just comes down to which side breaks first under the pressure. Usually, it’s the economically weaker party, provided they are sufficiently isolated by those sanctions. If you want to see the actual impact, you have to wait. Personally, I hope it doesn't come to that; I hope this all wraps up before the sanctions start showing their teeth. A massive collapse in Russia would simply create a whole new pile of problems for the rest of us. Then again, you can't let yourself be blackmailed.
The issue for Vladimir Putin right now is that he can't walk away from the mess he made. The way he entered this hand regarding Ukraine means there is no exit strategy that doesn't result in serious consequences for Russia. He's stuck with a mouthful of filth; he either has to swallow it or spit it back out, but right now, he can't do either.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Sanctions are a long-term game, but they work both ways. They hurt everyone—both the target and the ones imposing them. It really just comes down to which side breaks first under the pressure. Usually, it’s the economically weaker party, provided they are sufficiently isolated by those sanctions. If you want to see the actual impact, you have to wait. Personally, I hope it doesn't come to that; I hope this all wraps up before the sanctions start showing their teeth. A massive collapse in Russia would simply create a whole new pile of problems for the rest of us. Then again, you can't let yourself be blackmailed.
The issue for Vladimir Putin right now is that he can't walk away from the mess he made. The way he entered this hand regarding Ukraine means there is no exit strategy that doesn't result in serious consequences for Russia. He's stuck with a mouthful of filth; he either has to swallow it or spit it back out, but right now, he can't do either.

Precisely. And when you look at who stands to suffer most alongside both the Russians and the Ukrainians during a prolonged period of sanctions, the answer is clear: the European Union. They lack any semblance of energy independence. There isn't even a trace of it, despite the fairy tales being spun by our "leaders."

But perhaps that is a topic one shouldn't touch here. I suppose it remains a taboo subject. 🤷

Jacob Kern2 said:Precisely. And when you look at who stands to suffer most alongside both the Russians and the Ukrainians during a prolonged period of sanctions, the answer is clear: the European Union. They lack any semblance of energy independence. There isn't even a trace of it, despite the fairy tales being spun by our "leaders."

But perhaps that is a topic one shouldn't touch here. I suppose it remains a taboo subject. 🤷

This isn't Russia. You won't end up in prison. Why lie?

Jacob Kern2 said:Precisely. And when you look at who stands to suffer most alongside both the Russians and the Ukrainians during a prolonged period of sanctions, the answer is clear: the European Union. They lack any semblance of energy independence. There isn't even a trace of it, despite the fairy tales being spun by our "leaders."

But perhaps that is a topic one shouldn't touch here. I suppose it remains a taboo subject. 🤷

That outcome isn't just a possibility; it's a reality we face. Personally, I don't buy the idea that the European Union will be critically crippled by an energy crisis. There will be friction, certainly, but it will somehow be managed. People won't be freezing in the streets of Europe. No. The media outlets simply inflate the scale of the problem to boost their own readership—those precious clicks they need just to stay afloat. The bigger the predicted crisis, the more clicks they generate. It’s a predictable cycle designed to trigger mass hysteria. We saw this exact playbook used during the virus outbreak.

Jacob Kern2 said:Cheers to that logic.

Every time someone posts something similar, two or three idiots jump in with "you think," "this isn't Russia," and other nonsense.

Is it realistic to expect prices for everything to climb during the winter? Our distributors have been warning us for months about potential fuel and gas shortages. Can European Union governments block rising energy costs forever? How much room is actually left for those kinds of moves?

Is accepting this reality actually the problem, or are we just going to keep pretending everything is fine?

Are you suggesting someone is denying that fuel prices went up? Who? Give me one single quote. Thanks.

Nancy Gomez26 said:That outcome isn't just a possibility; it's a reality we face. Personally, I don't buy the idea that the European Union will be critically crippled by an energy crisis. There will be friction, certainly, but it will somehow be managed. People won't be freezing in the streets of Europe. No. The media outlets simply inflate the scale of the problem to boost their own readership—those precious clicks they need just to stay afloat. The bigger the predicted crisis, the more clicks they generate. It’s a predictable cycle designed to trigger mass hysteria. We saw this exact playbook used during the virus outbreak.

🤷

crimsoncyclist71 said:Are you suggesting someone is denying that fuel prices went up? Who? Give me one single quote. Thanks.

No one is disputing the fact that fuel costs have increased. What is being questioned is how this surge will impact the general standard of living and that otherwise superficial sense of European unity. There are countless posts along those lines. Why are you twisting my words?

crimsoncyclist71 said:Are you suggesting someone is denying that fuel prices went up? Who? Give me one single quote. Thanks.

Of course fuel costs have risen—that's visible to anyone with eyes. But once you take a moment to look at what the refinery price actually is versus how much the government slaps on top of it, the reality hits home. You quickly realize how much of this is a genuine production spike and how much is just the state aggressively padding its pockets through these increases. The federal budget is the primary beneficiary here, pulling in far more from these hikes than the refiners ever see. And they show no intention of curbing their appetite.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Of course fuel costs have risen—that's visible to anyone with eyes. But once you take a moment to look at what the refinery price actually is versus how much the government slaps on top of it, the reality hits home. You quickly realize how much of this is a genuine production spike and how much is just the state aggressively padding its pockets through these increases. The federal budget is the primary beneficiary here, pulling in far more from these hikes than the refiners ever see. And they show no intention of curbing their appetite.

Most people don't grasp basic economics. One day oil prices dip and suddenly everyone's convinced oil is hitting $300 a barrel and the Arabs will be selling it to Jesus Christ at that rate.

Jacob Kern2 said:Nobody is denying that fuel prices went up. What they're denying is how that impacts everyone's quality of life and that whole fake sense of European unity. There are tons of posts like this. Why are you twisting my words?

I’m not denying it.
No one is disputing the drop in living standards or the potential recession.
A country like Norway, which exports energy, won't feel the hit, but Germany—which tied itself so tightly to Russian energy—is definitely going to feel it. They actually admit it was a mistake. They’re looking for massive ways to cut back, but Germans are a disciplined people who tend to step up when they realize they messed up. They've dealt with much worse than this.
Other countries won't be hit nearly as hard because they didn't make such a massive blunder.
Besides, Russian energy issues are only part of the story; the fallout from the pandemic plays a role too.

Edit: Vladimir Putin started an invasion war in Europe. There isn't enough energy in the world to stop it if he truly screwed up just like he has with almost everything else regarding this invasion.
Europe will survive—it has seen much worse—but Vladimir Putin has effectively isolated his Russia from the Western world.

crimsoncyclist71 said:Most people don't grasp basic economics. One day oil prices dip and suddenly everyone's convinced oil is hitting $300 a barrel and the Arabs will be selling it to Jesus Christ at that rate.

Now they're paying the price because during the last crisis, Europe pivoted toward cheaper energy from Russia. Especially Qatar.
Sure, things might eventually settle down, but we'll be feeling the consequences until then.

rowdytiger13 said:I’m not denying it.
No one is disputing the drop in living standards or the potential recession.
A country like Norway, which exports energy, won't feel the hit, but Germany—which tied itself so tightly to Russian energy—is definitely going to feel it. They actually admit it was a mistake. They’re looking for massive ways to cut back, but Germans are a disciplined people who tend to step up when they realize they messed up. They've dealt with much worse than this.
Other countries won't be hit nearly as hard because they didn't make such a massive blunder.
Besides, Russian energy issues are only part of the story; the fallout from the pandemic plays a role too.

Edit: Vladimir Putin started an invasion war in Europe. There isn't enough energy in the world to stop it if he truly screwed up just like he has with almost everything else regarding this invasion.
Europe will survive—it has seen much worse—but Vladimir Putin has effectively isolated his Russia from the Western world.

The whole narrative being pushed by Putin supporters—this idea that the Germans are headed for total collapse just because they can't get cheap gas from a bully—is nothing but smoke and mirrors. Over the last couple of decades, Germany has been raking in massive trade surpluses every single year, likely totaling several trillion dollars in reserves. They have enough cushion to weather a decade or two of crisis if they really need to...

silentnomad7 said:The whole narrative being pushed by Putin supporters—this idea that the Germans are headed for total collapse just because they can't get cheap gas from a bully—is nothing but smoke and mirrors. Over the last couple of decades, Germany has been raking in massive trade surpluses every single year, likely totaling several trillion dollars in reserves. They have enough cushion to weather a decade or two of crisis if they really need to...

Their propaganda has completely fallen apart, and it’s finally obvious what’s driving all these stories.
All this sudden concern for Europe (the same one facing missile threats) and Germany is just a transparent attempt to erode support for Ukraine and shift the blame onto them and "junkie Zelenskyy." It isn't working anymore because the facts are staring everyone in the face... Ukraine was invaded, and Russia did it. Period.
They're just grasping at straws to see if any theory sticks. Whether it's bio-labs, Nazis, junkies, or the collapse of Europe... they'll take anything. One day they're threatening the "collective West," the next they're whining about sanctions, and the day after that, they claim the sanctions aren't even hitting them. It's just a constant, endless loop.

Jacob Kern2 said:🤷

No one is disputing the fact that fuel costs have increased. What is being questioned is how this surge will impact the general standard of living and that otherwise superficial sense of European unity. There are countless posts along those lines. Why are you twisting my words?

It's about capital accumulation. Corona really showed us how that whole assistance model works.
Putin is basically terrified of a permanent embargo and being walled off from the Russian Federation.

He'll need years to build out transit infrastructure toward Asia and stuff like that.

A strategic loss in the war combined with sanctions—it's basically the same outcome.

rowdytiger13 said:Their propaganda has completely fallen apart, and it’s finally obvious what’s driving all these stories.
All this sudden concern for Europe (the same one facing missile threats) and Germany is just a transparent attempt to erode support for Ukraine and shift the blame onto them and "junkie Zelenskyy." It isn't working anymore because the facts are staring everyone in the face... Ukraine was invaded, and Russia did it. Period.
They're just grasping at straws to see if any theory sticks. Whether it's bio-labs, Nazis, junkies, or the collapse of Europe... they'll take anything. One day they're threatening the "collective West," the next they're whining about sanctions, and the day after that, they claim the sanctions aren't even hitting them. It's just a constant, endless loop.

☕ total letdown—everything they planned to pull off in three days just totally flopped

No massive crowds out in the streets, no flowers, no big leader in Kyiv declaring some grand victory..

🙂the dream of being a dictator is dead🤣

plus he can't even call for a general mobilization in the major cities to gear people up, because an armed revolt would break out in Moscow against the regime, just like how the Bolshevik revolution kicked off.

As long as they keep calling it some kind of "special intervention" instead of an actual war.
Then Russian citizens don't really see it as an existential threat to their way of life.
Everyone treats it like it's just some sports rivalry—sending over mercenaries and a few "volunteers" here and there. Plus, you’ve got that whole imperialist complex going on—this idea that Russians are somehow superior but constantly looked down upon by the West. It's a mess.

But hey, time and reality will eventually catch up with them.