Russia's invasion of Ukraine: Part 5

crimsonorca42 said:https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...23216217538560

"Russia will declare war on Ukraine"

Following the " referendum, they’re apparently going to issue an ultimatum to Ukraine demanding their military withdraw from the occupied territories (Lugandonija, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia). If Ukraine refuses, Russia says they'll officially declare war on Ukraine!

So, was this all just some kind of game until now? Honestly, I can't even wrap my head around how delusional these people are. 😵

I suppose any attempt at having a rational conversation with folks like this is probably just a complete waste of time.

You just don't get it—Russia is finally about to get serious. It was all just a feint. Now they're gonna throw ten Armats and some Su-57s into the mix and just steamroll Ukraine.

Melissa Rivera5 said:Yeah, people have been asking that for a while now (and rightfully so)—like, what is the actual state of Russia's nuclear arsenal? This new stuff they're doing is probably fine, I guess, but how much of it is actually functional? I’d bet money they have enough to cause some massive damage, but maybe not enough to end the world... more like enough to force an unconditional surrender once there's a nuclear response and Moscow, Petrograd, and Vladivostok are just... gone.

Do you actually have some insider intel on the Russian nuclear stockpile, or are you just writing this from another planet?

Melissa Rivera5 said:Replacement and returning stuff aren't really the same thing, right? I mean, supplying UA with nuclear weapons just feels like playing it safe and being a bit of a coward.

They started on denuclearization because they were pressured by the US.

So honestly, the Americans should at least deliver some of their own.

Otherwise, word is there were two of them down in sunken Moscow. Maybe pull those out?

crimsonorca42 said:https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...23216217538560

"Russia will declare war on Ukraine"

Following the " referendum, they’re apparently going to issue an ultimatum to Ukraine demanding their military withdraw from the occupied territories (Lugandonija, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia). If Ukraine refuses, Russia says they'll officially declare war on Ukraine!

So, was this all just some kind of game until now? Honestly, I can't even wrap my head around how delusional these people are. 😵

I suppose any attempt at having a rational conversation with folks like this is probably just a complete waste of time.

So this marks Putin's 30th address since the session ended. If the Russians hadn't already proven they’re more of a disorganized mob than an actual army, you'd actually expect them to gain ground with new forces on their side.
Instead, I'm expecting more of the same stalling. It's pathetic for the brave souls caught in the middle. Especially for the Ukrainians.

crimsonorca42 said:https://twitter.com/NOELreports/stat...23216217538560

"Russia will declare war on Ukraine"

Following the " referendum, they’re apparently going to issue an ultimatum to Ukraine demanding their military withdraw from the occupied territories (Lugandonija, Kherson, and Zaporizhzhia). If Ukraine refuses, Russia says they'll officially declare war on Ukraine!

So, was this all just some kind of game until now? Honestly, I can't even wrap my head around how delusional these people are. 😵

I suppose any attempt at having a rational conversation with folks like this is probably just a complete waste of time.

Oh sure, heaven forbid they actually declare war! Like a "special operation" is fine, but if it's an actual war, then everything's over.

electricsurfer47 said:They started on denuclearization because they were pressured by the US.

So honestly, the Americans should at least deliver some of their own.

Otherwise, word is there were two of them down in sunken Moscow. Maybe pull those out?

Because the Americans pushed for it? I don't know, maybe it's not quite that simple, but what's clear is that both the US and Russia (along with a few other countries) gave security guarantees. That's the only way the US can act legitimately. The one thing that seems certain is that if Russia uses WMD, then NATO pretty much won't have any choice but to massively escalate the conflict.

electricsurfer47 said:They started on denuclearization because they were pressured by the US.

So honestly, the Americans should at least deliver some of their own.

Otherwise, word is there were two of them down in sunken Moscow. Maybe pull those out?

A nuclear weapon isn't exactly a shovel.

I don't know... I actually dig the suggestion someone made. If the whole deal for Ukrainian Independence was supposed to involve denuclearization, but now these bastards are just trampling over those borders and acting like they get a say in it anyway
Then maybe it’s only fair to hit the reset button and let the Ukrainians have some of that arsenal back—just to level the playing field, I guess.

And yeah. People who are terrified of nukes? I get it. Honestly, we’re all a little scared deep down. Especially if you're a parent—that fear hits differently.
But you just can't give in to an aggressor simply because they have the upper hand. That logic doesn't hold up. By that reasoning, anyone could just decide to take over Switzerland, Austria, Ibiza, or Canada... just because they feel like it.
We don't justify a physically stronger partner hitting a woman just because they're able to do it. No. In a civilized society, we call out that kind of behavior and we punish it.

James Chavez91 said:I don't know... I actually dig the suggestion someone made. If the whole deal for Ukrainian Independence was supposed to involve denuclearization, but now these bastards are just trampling over those borders and acting like they get a say in it anyway
Then maybe it’s only fair to hit the reset button and let the Ukrainians have some of that arsenal back—just to level the playing field, I guess.

And yeah. People who are terrified of nukes? I get it. Honestly, we’re all a little scared deep down. Especially if you're a parent—that fear hits differently.
But you just can't give in to an aggressor simply because they have the upper hand. That logic doesn't hold up. By that reasoning, anyone could just decide to take over Switzerland, Austria, Ibiza, or Canada... just because they feel like it.
We don't justify a physically stronger partner hitting a woman just because they're able to do it. No. In a civilized society, we call out that kind of behavior and we punish it.

I mean, honestly, people *do* make excuses, especially when minors are involved and they just label them as "bullies." In those cases, the whole system seems to find a thousand ways to favor the aggressor while leaving the victim hanging. Then, you'll hear people claiming it was somehow the woman's fault just because she was wearing a short skirt or something.

Melissa Rivera5 said:I mean, honestly, people *do* make excuses, especially when minors are involved and they just label them as "bullies." In those cases, the whole system seems to find a thousand ways to favor the aggressor while leaving the victim hanging. Then, you'll hear people claiming it was somehow the woman's fault just because she was wearing a short skirt or something.

Well, damn—I didn't think anyone would actually try to apply the American justice system or our local examples here. 🤣

Maybe don't do that next time. 😬

Looks like Russia is starting to shut down its borders.

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/s...020928/photo/1

https://mobile.twitter.com/Faytuks/s...38390714667008

https://twitter.com/sentdefender/sta...CzgeP6vNgrAAAA

James Chavez91 said:I don't know... I actually dig the suggestion someone made. If the whole deal for Ukrainian Independence was supposed to involve denuclearization, but now these bastards are just trampling over those borders and acting like they get a say in it anyway
Then maybe it’s only fair to hit the reset button and let the Ukrainians have some of that arsenal back—just to level the playing field, I guess.

And yeah. People who are terrified of nukes? I get it. Honestly, we’re all a little scared deep down. Especially if you're a parent—that fear hits differently.
But you just can't give in to an aggressor simply because they have the upper hand. That logic doesn't hold up. By that reasoning, anyone could just decide to take over Switzerland, Austria, Ibiza, or Canada... just because they feel like it.
We don't justify a physically stronger partner hitting a woman just because they're able to do it. No. In a civilized society, we call out that kind of behavior and we punish it.

That's a solid point, and honestly, we need to keep saying it because some people keep pushing those what about arguments.
And they’re all just Americans.
Did we actually have a chance to handle things back in 2014? As a community within the European Union?
We did. It's just like our own domestic conflicts—a total mess. A Fryer attacks another nation and then starts waving nukes around. It's precisely because we let bullies operate within the European sphere that we're sitting here worrying about nukes now.
If we had slapped him with brutal sanctions on gas and everything else back then, none of this would be happening.
But no, instead everyone says it's the fault of the USA. They claim the USA is the villain. That they're always at war. So why should we get involved?
Who was it that actually took down Slobodan Maddox?

James Chavez91 said:I don't know... I actually dig the suggestion someone made. If the whole deal for Ukrainian Independence was supposed to involve denuclearization, but now these bastards are just trampling over those borders and acting like they get a say in it anyway
Then maybe it’s only fair to hit the reset button and let the Ukrainians have some of that arsenal back—just to level the playing field, I guess.

And yeah. People who are terrified of nukes? I get it. Honestly, we’re all a little scared deep down. Especially if you're a parent—that fear hits differently.
But you just can't give in to an aggressor simply because they have the upper hand. That logic doesn't hold up. By that reasoning, anyone could just decide to take over Switzerland, Austria, Ibiza, or Canada... just because they feel like it.
We don't justify a physically stronger partner hitting a woman just because they're able to do it. No. In a civilized society, we call out that kind of behavior and we punish it.

By the way, for anyone out there thinking the USA isn't keeping tabs on what the Russian Federation is doing with its nukes, or that the USA wasn't being dead serious when they told the Kremlin "Don't do it, you will regret it"...

https://twitter.com/NguyenK68421403/...30512304107520

All three USAF "Cobra Ball" aircraft have been in the air these past few days. For context, these planes are specifically specialized to track changes or launches within another country's nuclear arsenal (for example, a Cobra is regularly airborne whenever Korea runs its tests).

And yeah, they fly on orders from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-She...5s-cobra-ball/

The Russians are basically backing themselves into a corner with no way out.

When does the Duma push through this annexation of rogue territories and officially claim them for the Russian Federation? Is that just a precursor to declaring war on Ukraine?
And theoretically, if someone actually manages to sideline Vladimir Putin, they'd have to run the whole process in reverse through the Duma to "relinquish" those lands. Is there even a single political faction in the Duma with the actual backbone to attempt that, or does anyone even possess the political will for such a move down the road?

Vladimir Putin is setting the stage to trap Russia in this conflict indefinitely.
It’s looking more and more like there are only two ways this ends.
Either a total defeat for Ukraine or a total defeat for Russia. Given how NATO is positioned alongside Ukraine, I’m predicting a Russian defeat, but it won't happen without heavy casualties on both sides. We're in for some dark days.

hollowdriver13 said:By the way, for anyone out there thinking the USA isn't keeping tabs on what the Russian Federation is doing with its nukes, or that the USA wasn't being dead serious when they told the Kremlin "Don't do it, you will regret it"...

https://twitter.com/NguyenK68421403/...30512304107520

All three USAF "Cobra Ball" aircraft have been in the air these past few days. For context, these planes are specifically specialized to track changes or launches within another country's nuclear arsenal (for example, a Cobra is regularly airborne whenever Korea runs its tests).

And yeah, they fly on orders from the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

https://www.af.mil/About-Us/Fact-She...5s-cobra-ball/

Maybe they'll finally figure out where all those UFOs near Norfolk come from every month.

They’re dragging their feet on passing that law specifically so their career soldiers lose the ability to refuse orders—which, according to the rules, they actually could do if the theater of war was outside of Russia.

And look, I’m not talking about those massive nukes everyone keeps freaking out about. The USA could easily deploy a small tactical one in international waters—say, somewhere like the Black Sea.

edit: every fight has two sides, after all.
Do people seriously think the Russian generals are idiots? They aren't. These guys are trained for war; they can absolutely project where this whole mess is headed. Sure, maybe we end up in a skirmish involving mini nukes, but do you honestly feel any safer thinking the USA and Britain are leading that charge? Or maybe it's France and... who else?

Larry Wilson25 said:They’re dragging their feet on passing that law specifically so their career soldiers lose the ability to refuse orders—which, according to the rules, they actually could do if the theater of war was outside of Russia.

And look, I’m not talking about those massive nukes everyone keeps freaking out about. The USA could easily deploy a small tactical one in international waters—say, somewhere like the Black Sea.

edit: every fight has two sides, after all.
Do people seriously think the Russian generals are idiots? They aren't. These guys are trained for war; they can absolutely project where this whole mess is headed. Sure, maybe we end up in a skirmish involving mini nukes, but do you honestly feel any safer thinking the USA and Britain are leading that charge? Or maybe it's France and... who else?

Anyone with nuclear weapons can use them. This isn't any more serious now than it was before the invasion, following this referendum. This move is just about seizing any leverage for peace talks while keeping the entirety of Ukraine on the table. They're cementing it now, and there's no undoing that without a total military defeat of Russia. There's no other way; they have to be pushed out of Ukraine so completely that once they're gone, they won't even dream of attacking from Russian soil again. That's the bottom line.

Terry Green3 said:The Russians are basically backing themselves into a corner with no way out.

When does the Duma push through this annexation of rogue territories and officially claim them for the Russian Federation? Is that just a precursor to declaring war on Ukraine?
And theoretically, if someone actually manages to sideline Vladimir Putin, they'd have to run the whole process in reverse through the Duma to "relinquish" those lands. Is there even a single political faction in the Duma with the actual backbone to attempt that, or does anyone even possess the political will for such a move down the road?

Vladimir Putin is setting the stage to trap Russia in this conflict indefinitely.
It’s looking more and more like there are only two ways this ends.
Either a total defeat for Ukraine or a total defeat for Russia. Given how NATO is positioned alongside Ukraine, I’m predicting a Russian defeat, but it won't happen without heavy casualties on both sides. We're in for some dark days.

Who cares if the Duma ever votes to back down. It's like how the government in Mexico keeps a director for the Mexico office; it's all just theater.

Wait, so there’s still no official word on the rat?

I honestly thought Ukraine would have dropped that announcement the second foreign troops stepped onto their soil (so why the hold-up?)...

And now you gotta wonder—does this whole "annexation" thing just give Ukrainians the green light to push back into territory occupied since 2014, or maybe even take the fight straight into Russia?

Terry Green3 said:Anyone with nuclear weapons can use them. This isn't any more serious now than it was before the invasion, following this referendum. This move is just about seizing any leverage for peace talks while keeping the entirety of Ukraine on the table. They're cementing it now, and there's no undoing that without a total military defeat of Russia. There's no other way; they have to be pushed out of Ukraine so completely that once they're gone, they won't even dream of attacking from Russian soil again. That's the bottom line.

There's a massive gray area between the extremes, you know? Right now, the West is still mostly in deterrence mode.
But when we shift to tactical operations, we're going to be in an offensive posture. The silver lining is that Americans will be leading the negotiations instead of that ineffective European Union—and let's be real, they never like to talk business unless they've got some serious leverage in their hands.

Morgan Brown4 said:Wait, so there’s still no official word on the rat?

I honestly thought Ukraine would have dropped that announcement the second foreign troops stepped onto their soil (so why the hold-up?)...

And now you gotta wonder—does this whole "annexation" thing just give Ukrainians the green light to push back into territory occupied since 2014, or maybe even take the fight straight into Russia?

I already laid it out above regarding why these referendums happen. It's so the professionals and the mobilized military can go to war without needing permission every single step of the way. That's just how the law works over there.

James Chavez91 said:I don't know... I actually dig the suggestion someone made. If the whole deal for Ukrainian Independence was supposed to involve denuclearization, but now these bastards are just trampling over those borders and acting like they get a say in it anyway
Then maybe it’s only fair to hit the reset button and let the Ukrainians have some of that arsenal back—just to level the playing field, I guess.

And yeah. People who are terrified of nukes? I get it. Honestly, we’re all a little scared deep down. Especially if you're a parent—that fear hits differently.
But you just can't give in to an aggressor simply because they have the upper hand. That logic doesn't hold up. By that reasoning, anyone could just decide to take over Switzerland, Austria, Ibiza, or Canada... just because they feel like it.
We don't justify a physically stronger partner hitting a woman just because they're able to do it. No. In a civilized society, we call out that kind of behavior and we punish it.

Look, I'm a parent myself, so I just don't see it. Why on earth would I want my kid growing up in a world where bullies just get away with whatever they want?