Sanctions on Russia

David Torres2 said:They’ll basically shut down all the heavy industrial users first, leaving private citizens—regular folks—to be the very last ones on the list.
Think about it: two weeks without power and you've got total chaos breaking out in every single city. Honestly, more than 90% of people wouldn't even have enough food in their pantry to last two days.

Without power? Natural gas covers about 15% of the electricity in Germany, mostly to fuel industrial needs. The Germans would sooner restart their nuclear plants or start digging up more coal than leave their citizens sitting in the dark for two weeks.

As for these other posts about food shortages, they don't even warrant a response because they're frankly laughable. People are just too lazy to do a quick Google search to see where Russia exports its grain.

The issue of cutting off gas is primarily an industrial headache. It’s certainly not a small problem, but talk of food shortages causing civil unrest... it feels like I'm reading some cheap tabloid.

On another note, Peskov has weighed in. He claims the decree doesn't specify cutting off non-payers in rubles, and that journalists should direct all detailed inquiries to Gazprom. 🐔

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, obviously there will be shortages, but I doubt we'll run out of the absolute essentials that trigger riots and total chaos, which is what people are freaking out about here.

Even during the whole COVID mess, there were shortages, and honestly, we still deal with them all the time, yet I don't see the standard of living in Europe plummeting. If anything, this is probably a massive long-term win for Europe because manufacturing is likely to start moving back home. They’ll actually start considering things besides just chasing a quick buck.

Things might get a little dicey, sure, but the idea that one Russia could bring the entire EU to its knees through blackmail is just laughable... maybe the Russians would have more leverage if they weren't so desperately dependent on selling their energy, but at the end of the day, they're basically a banana republic where something like 60% of their GDP relies on energy exports. Without those sales, Russia falls apart—no money, no salaries, no pensions... nothing.

If things start getting messy in Europe, you can bet your life that Russia will completely implode from the inside out.

Nah, chaos and riots aren't going to happen under these specific circumstances—a lot more would have to go wrong first.
But man, power outages? That’s definitely coming our way in the next 3 to 5 years, even without any sanctions, and honestly, that's what keeps me up at night. If the grid goes down, everything falls apart, including the entire supply chain.
I'm already getting my gear ready for that scenario, just in case. 😉

Michael Ortiz68 said:Without power? Natural gas covers about 15% of the electricity in Germany, mostly to fuel industrial needs. The Germans would sooner restart their nuclear plants or start digging up more coal than leave their citizens sitting in the dark for two weeks.

As for these other posts about food shortages, they don't even warrant a response because they're frankly laughable. People are just too lazy to do a quick Google search to see where Russia exports its grain.

The issue of cutting off gas is primarily an industrial headache. It’s certainly not a small problem, but talk of food shortages causing civil unrest... it feels like I'm reading some cheap tabloid.

On another note, Peskov has weighed in. He claims the decree doesn't specify cutting off non-payers in rubles, and that journalists should direct all detailed inquiries to Gazprom. 🐔

We aren't even really talking about gas here; we're talking about how Germany plans to exit fossil fuels altogether (gas, oil, coal).

😵🤣

How many times does little Putin and his crew at the Kremlin have to completely screw themselves over before these forum "Russians" finally get the hint and wake up...

Probably a hell of a lot...but hey, I'm just asking...😁

Brenda Murphy3 said:😵🤣

How many times does little Putin and his crew at the Kremlin have to completely screw themselves over before these forum "Russians" finally get the hint and wake up...

Probably a hell of a lot...but hey, I'm just asking...😁

Here’s the best part:

"But again, I repeat, for all specific details, it is better to contact ExxonMobil," said Karine Jean-Pierre.

What a bunch of clowns

wearytrucker22 said:The Germans don't need to worry about food; they've got plenty.https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...16-24_FoodProd

The Germans are working on a plan to disconnect from the gas grid. They originally considered shutting down the chemical industry too, but they aren't willing to do that yet. First, they'll cut off shopping malls, service sectors, and electricity—that accounts for about 60% of Russian gas imports.

Of course they have a "contingency plan"—that's what those things are for—but it's still a situation they're trying to dodge if they can.
Especially when the alternative is pretty straightforward: just pay them in Euros through JPMorgan Chase.

Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, obviously there will be shortages, but I doubt we'll run out of the absolute essentials that trigger riots and total chaos, which is what people are freaking out about here.

Even during the whole COVID mess, there were shortages, and honestly, we still deal with them all the time, yet I don't see the standard of living in Europe plummeting. If anything, this is probably a massive long-term win for Europe because manufacturing is likely to start moving back home. They’ll actually start considering things besides just chasing a quick buck.

Things might get a little dicey, sure, but the idea that one Russia could bring the entire EU to its knees through blackmail is just laughable... maybe the Russians would have more leverage if they weren't so desperately dependent on selling their energy, but at the end of the day, they're basically a banana republic where something like 60% of their GDP relies on energy exports. Without those sales, Russia falls apart—no money, no salaries, no pensions... nothing.

If things start getting messy in Europe, you can bet your life that Russia will completely implode from the inside out.

Exactly. Most people forget that just 20 or 30 years ago, the European Union wasn't dependent on Russian energy at all. There’s a silver lining here: the truth is coming out, and Russia's ability to play the "blackmail card" is hitting rock bottom. All they'll have left is shouting empty threats about nuclear war. We're essentially heading back to Cold War dynamics; it’s certainly not pretty or ideal, but it isn't a tragedy either.

wearytrucker22 said:That’s exactly why the grid hits residents before it hits industry. In the States, if you shut down a massive facility like a Dow Chemical plant, you're cutting off 650 million cubic meters of gas. They produce maybe 1.1 to 1.3 million tons of fertilizer, while the entire US consumes roughly 280,000 to 350,000. This means the real crisis is going to hit the Eastern Seaboard way harder than the rest of the country.

Do you ever just... think logically?
If you cut the power or gas to regular people, everyone is absolutely going to scramble to turn their heat on to keep themselves and their kids warm.
It’s pretty obvious to everyone else, I guess, just not to you.

steelfox98 said:👍
This really highlights the root cause. This isn't a problem that started last month; it started twenty years ago. The scheme hasn't changed much, except now they say "The Russians can't say that, only we can."

This hasn't even truly begun. If Russia shuts off the gas, a huge chunk of industry stands still. Honestly, I'm not sure what would even be left standing, given how interconnected everything is. They say 95% of chemical production depends directly on energy.
Agriculture—the European Union is a top global producer, but they consume 90% of what they grow, leaving little surplus. What happens without fertilizers—which the Americans declared a strategic interest and pulled out of sanctions—combined with skyrocketing fuel prices?

Russia has food and energy; Germans have Ford and Chevrolet. Who is actually more practical in a crisis, and who is used to hardship?

And what about the European Union starting to tap into its own gas, oil, or coal? Or restarting those shuttered nuclear and thermal plants? It’s considered too dirty. We’ve become far too focused on being green. Everyone wants electric cars, but they don't want to think about the fact that children in the Congo are the ones mining the lithium...🙄

Joshua Wilson17 said:And what about the European Union starting to tap into its own gas, oil, or coal? Or restarting those shuttered nuclear and thermal plants? It’s considered too dirty. We’ve become far too focused on being green. Everyone wants electric cars, but they don't want to think about the fact that children in the Congo are the ones mining the lithium...🙄

I don't get why everyone talks about the European Union like it's one single country. It isn't.
Every nation in the European Union is doing its own thing. Germany is phasing out pretty much all fossil fuels, while the Frenchmen just laugh at them and plan to build 14 brand-new nuclear plants.

David Torres2 said:I don't get why everyone talks about the European Union like it's one single country. It isn't.
Every nation in the European Union is doing its own thing. Germany is phasing out pretty much all fossil fuels, while the Frenchmen just laugh at them and plan to build 14 brand-new nuclear plants.

I don't follow. You actually think a nuclear plant runs on fossil fuels?

David Torres2 said:Nah, chaos and riots aren't going to happen under these specific circumstances—a lot more would have to go wrong first.
But man, power outages? That’s definitely coming our way in the next 3 to 5 years, even without any sanctions, and honestly, that's what keeps me up at night. If the grid goes down, everything falls apart, including the entire supply chain.
I'm already getting my gear ready for that scenario, just in case. 😉

You aren't above me.
I've got LiFePO4 batteries—310Ah at 50V, roughly 14.4 kWh, totally safe—set up for an emergency system with a 5 kWp inverter. I missed the boat on this one; all the high-capacity inverters sold out, and prices have spiked by 60-100% since then.
5 kW solar setup.

But getting back to gas—my own transition to zero cubic meter consumption was successful over two years ago, and I'm still breathing.😁

Back in 2021, through the LNG terminal on Manhattan, 1.6 billion cubic meters of gas were imported and injected into the gas transport system.
Total natural gas consumption in America sits at approximately 2.7 billion.
Domestic production in California is about 0.85 billion m3.
That means Russian gas accounts for a modest 0.33 billion m3. Honestly, there's no reason to even dream about shutting down the petrochemical plants; maybe just scale back production enough to satisfy domestic needs and friendly neighbors like Canada, Mexico, Mexico, Mexico, Albania, and perhaps part of the North America.😁

silvermarlin24 said:I don't follow. You actually think a nuclear plant runs on fossil fuels?

Did you even bother reading the page right before this one?

silvermarlin24 said:I don't follow. You actually think a nuclear plant runs on fossil fuels?

Well, they need fossil fuels too. You’ve got to mine the uranium, ship the fuel rods over to Germany, and get the workers on site.😁

David Torres2 said:Did you even bother reading the page right before this one?

Yeah, I read the one before this.

wearytrucker22 said:Well, they need fossil fuels too. You’ve got to mine the uranium, ship the fuel rods over to Germany, and get the workers on site.😁

True. I totally missed that crucial part.😁

steelfox98 said:👍
This really highlights the root cause. This isn't a problem that started last month; it started twenty years ago. The scheme hasn't changed much, except now they say "The Russians can't say that, only we can."

This hasn't even truly begun. If Russia shuts off the gas, a huge chunk of industry stands still. Honestly, I'm not sure what would even be left standing, given how interconnected everything is. They say 95% of chemical production depends directly on energy.
Agriculture—the European Union is a top global producer, but they consume 90% of what they grow, leaving little surplus. What happens without fertilizers—which the Americans declared a strategic interest and pulled out of sanctions—combined with skyrocketing fuel prices?

Russia has food and energy; Germans have Ford and Chevrolet. Who is actually more practical in a crisis, and who is used to hardship?

It isn't a lack of resources, but rather a lack of expertise.

As Prices rise in Supermarkets, Russian families Suffer
Prices on food and produce have risen up to 210%.

FinExpertiza, a financial consulting agency, once used internationally accepted methodology to calculate income levels. Their experts found that 24.6 % of the Russian population, or 36 million people, had an income below 60% of the median income. The median income last year was 27,000 rubles (about $300) per month. That means that a quarter of the population lives on the brink of poverty with an income of 16,000 rubles — about $150 — a month.

At the same time price increases are — in the euphemistic words of patriotic Russians — “unparalleled." If it was just the price of sugar, that would be one thing. But in the City of Kurgan, for example, the price of onions has gone up 160%. Compared with March of Last year, in Russia as compared with March of Last year, in Russia as a whole cabbage prices have increased the most among the major essential foodstuffs: they have risen 209.45% — more than threefold. The price of sugar went up by half (56%). Buckwheat is up 37.7%, flour —20.61%, pasta — 21.22%, and almost all fruits and vegetables — onions, tomatoes, carrots and potatoes — went up by more than 20%. Meat and poultry — beef, lamb, pork and chicken — rose in price by 12-19%.

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...-suffer-a77173

wearytrucker22 said:You aren't above me.
I've got LiFePO4 batteries—310Ah at 50V, roughly 14.4 kWh, totally safe—set up for an emergency system with a 5 kWp inverter. I missed the boat on this one; all the high-capacity inverters sold out, and prices have spiked by 60-100% since then.
5 kW solar setup.

But getting back to gas—my own transition to zero cubic meter consumption was successful over two years ago, and I'm still breathing.😁

Back in 2021, through the LNG terminal on Manhattan, 1.6 billion cubic meters of gas were imported and injected into the gas transport system.
Total natural gas consumption in America sits at approximately 2.7 billion.
Domestic production in California is about 0.85 billion m3.
That means Russian gas accounts for a modest 0.33 billion m3. Honestly, there's no reason to even dream about shutting down the petrochemical plants; maybe just scale back production enough to satisfy domestic needs and friendly neighbors like Canada, Mexico, Mexico, Mexico, Albania, and perhaps part of the North America.😁

You don't even need anything stronger than 2-3 KW because trying to power an entire house is just overkill.
Phone, TV, radio, internet—most of that stuff doesn't even run constantly, so why bother? And most importantly, you aren't drawing attention from anyone looking for a fight.

As for the math on the bill, you've gotta know this:>>
1m3 of LNG (compressed) is equal to 600m3 of standard gas.

silvermarlin24 said:Yeah, I read the one before this.

True. I totally missed that crucial part.😁

Germany is moving away from things like gas, oil, and coal, while those Nuklerak plants had already shut down by January 1st, 2022. All of them combined account for 60 percent!
Does that make sense now?

Maria Moore said:Foreign trade only makes up about 4% of the US GDP. Plus, we have our own oil and gas right here at home, so we won't deal with the massive shortages or production shutdowns they're facing over in the European Union.
On the flip side, the US will obviously deal with some turbulence in the global commodities and energy markets—since prices are set on global exchanges, they're often driven by pure speculation—which is bound to trigger inflation and market chaos. For instance, I heard an economic analyst on CNN last night saying there’s actually plenty of oil available right now; the price hikes on the exchanges are just a reaction to geopolitical instability rather than any actual drop in supply.
Eventually, the markets will settle down, and in the meantime, the US might even come out ahead by ramping up gas exports and, let's not forget, selling weapons to both Ukraine and the European Union.

Actually, the US accounts for roughly 25% of imports and exports of goods and services relative to its GDP. Honestly, in this modern era where global value chains are so deeply intertwined, seeing a number as low as 4% would look incredibly bizarre to anyone paying attention.

David Torres2 said:You don't even need anything stronger than 2-3 KW because trying to power an entire house is just overkill.
Phone, TV, radio, internet—most of that stuff doesn't even run constantly, so why bother? And most importantly, you aren't drawing attention from anyone looking for a fight.

As for the math on the bill, you've gotta know this:>>
1m3 of LNG (compressed) is equal to 600m3 of standard gas.

We're talking about compressed natural gas (CNG) versus this cooled-down version, which is what we call LNG.