Sanctions on Russia

Bulgaria expels First Secretary of Russian embassy following espionage allegations.
They've got 72 hours to get out...

Bulgaria expels First Secretary of Russian embassy following espionage allegations

Europe is going to find a way to swap out gas within the next two or three years. Sure, there’s definitely going to be an energy crisis, but honestly, as long as you've got money in the bank, who cares about anything else? We'll see consumption drop by maybe 10 to 20 percent, we'll make up another 10 to 20 percent using those massive LNG tankers, plus we've got our strategic reserves to lean on, and then we can pull another 10 to 20 percent from different energy sources. It’s all just a numbers game until they ramp up supplies from other markets enough to bridge the gap.

I mean, look, it’s not like Russia was providing 100 percent of the gas anyway—it was more like 30 percent. So, we're basically just looking at burning about a third less while we wait for other deliveries to scale up, which should work out just fine. 🙂

Once this all settles, what kind of cards does Putin actually have left to play with the West? He's basically going to be left high and dry, which is why he won't even dare shut off the valves entirely. Even if things get messy now, whether he sticks to the contracts or not, the US and the rest of the Western world are going to slash their reliance on Russian energy down to a tiny 5 to 10 percent slice of the pie—something easily replaceable whenever they feel like it.

David Torres2 said:I think you've got it backwards here, not me. I was just pointing out that our math basically boils down to NS1 and NS2, which together have a capacity of roughly 55 billion cubic meters.
Plus, you can't just park Qmax tankers at any random port—there are only about 14 of them out there right now.
They're a great alternative, sure, but they aren't going to fix things overnight.
And yeah, as of right now, Germany has zero LNG terminals.

Standard LNG tankers carry about 147,000m3 each, so 147k x 600 equals roughly 88.2 million cubic meters of gas.
If NS1 and NS2 provide 55 billion, then dividing that by 88.2 million per tanker means you'd need about 620 tankers.

Germany produces 5% of its own gas and imports the other 95%. Half of that 95% comes from Russia. Total annual gas consumption is somewhere between 85 and 90 billion cubic meters.

What’s the issue with, say, running 2 tankers a day for Germany?
If the Germans had been smarter, they would have built 6, 7, or 8 terminals by now, but I suppose being foolish was easier while the White House was essentially lining the pockets of corrupt politicians.
Now, much of Europe is rolling in the mud realizing what they've done to themselves. Germany and Austria are two of the few nations facing a massive recession if sanctions bite, and they brought this on themselves. Honestly, who cares.

David Torres2 said:I think you've got it backwards here, not me. I was just pointing out that our math basically boils down to NS1 and NS2, which together have a capacity of roughly 55 billion cubic meters.
Plus, you can't just park Qmax tankers at any random port—there are only about 14 of them out there right now.
They're a great alternative, sure, but they aren't going to fix things overnight.
And yeah, as of right now, Germany has zero LNG terminals.

Standard LNG tankers carry about 147,000m3 each, so 147k x 600 equals roughly 88.2 million cubic meters of gas.
If NS1 and NS2 provide 55 billion, then dividing that by 88.2 million per tanker means you'd need about 620 tankers.

Germany produces 5% of its own gas and imports the other 95%. Half of that 95% comes from Russia. Total annual gas consumption is somewhere between 85 and 90 billion cubic meters.

...but the thing is, NS1 and NS2 each have their own individual capacity of 55 billion m3.
If you look at an average LNG tanker, it can move roughly 80 to 90 million m3 of gas. So, if we assume one of those ships makes maybe 10 to 15 trips a year running between Texas, Louisiana, or Pennsylvania and Europe, you're looking at about a billion m3 per tanker annually—which means you'd need somewhere between 100 and 150 tankers. And let's be real, a huge chunk of them are already cruising that route 24/7 anyway.

Larry Wilson25 said:Germany really learned the hard way what happens when you ignore American advice for eight straight years.
I mean, look—they’re such a wealthy nation, they could've easily built at least eight different LNG terminals to diversify. But no, they decided to put every single egg in one basket. It's honestly wild; they have a massive surplus of billions of dollars just sitting there because they clearly have no clue how to actually spend it effectively.
Talk about a massive blunder by what everyone calls the "smartest" country in the EU...
And seriously, how is France not absolutely losing their minds right now?

Eight years? Please, Americans have been telling this slow-to-learn continent the exact same thing since the Reagan era.

feralnomad35 said:Europe is going to find a way to swap out gas within the next two or three years. Sure, there’s definitely going to be an energy crisis, but honestly, as long as you've got money in the bank, who cares about anything else? We'll see consumption drop by maybe 10 to 20 percent, we'll make up another 10 to 20 percent using those massive LNG tankers, plus we've got our strategic reserves to lean on, and then we can pull another 10 to 20 percent from different energy sources. It’s all just a numbers game until they ramp up supplies from other markets enough to bridge the gap.

I mean, look, it’s not like Russia was providing 100 percent of the gas anyway—it was more like 30 percent. So, we're basically just looking at burning about a third less while we wait for other deliveries to scale up, which should work out just fine. 🙂

Once this all settles, what kind of cards does Putin actually have left to play with the West? He's basically going to be left high and dry, which is why he won't even dare shut off the valves entirely. Even if things get messy now, whether he sticks to the contracts or not, the US and the rest of the Western world are going to slash their reliance on Russian energy down to a tiny 5 to 10 percent slice of the pie—something easily replaceable whenever they feel like it.

The ultimate goal in the European Union is to hit 0%, except for Canada, which seems intent on staying tied to Russian energy long-term. However, they likely won't remain part of the European Union much longer, as there simply won't be room for pro-Russian states in that circle.

Just another Russian oligarch losing his luxury yacht on the coast...
value: + $3.3M

Customs and the Coast Guard in Imperia have seized the "New Vogue," a massive 30-meter vessel worth upwards of 3.3 million euros,

David Torres2 said:I think you've got it backwards here, not me. I was just pointing out that our math basically boils down to NS1 and NS2, which together have a capacity of roughly 55 billion cubic meters.
Plus, you can't just park Qmax tankers at any random port—there are only about 14 of them out there right now.
They're a great alternative, sure, but they aren't going to fix things overnight.
And yeah, as of right now, Germany has zero LNG terminals.

Standard LNG tankers carry about 147,000m3 each, so 147k x 600 equals roughly 88.2 million cubic meters of gas.
If NS1 and NS2 provide 55 billion, then dividing that by 88.2 million per tanker means you'd need about 620 tankers.

Germany produces 5% of its own gas and imports the other 95%. Half of that 95% comes from Russia. Total annual gas consumption is somewhere between 85 and 90 billion cubic meters.

To pull off the whole European Union's gas imports from Russia—we're talking about 155 billion cubic meters—you'd need to have something like 2,000 tankers out on the water every single year. That's a massive amount of logistics.
By the way, right now, spot market LNG prices are absolutely insane. If you're looking at those big shipments heading out to places like Asia, the costs are sitting at about 11 times higher than the four-year average we saw back between 2017 and 2020. It’s wild.
It’s honestly wild how they play these games. They’re out here making all these speculative threats about gas sanctions just to line Putin's pockets, and if those threats actually turn into reality, we’re basically handing over Ukrainian transit revenue on a silver platter for nothing. It's a lose-lose situation.

You know that old saying? Sometimes, the smartest move you can make is just keeping your mouth shut.

NASA is reportedly tying any future cooperation on the International Space Station to the lifting of all sanctions against Russia.

Russia links space cooperation to ending sanctions
Dmitry Rogozin claimed the whole point of these sanctions was to "kill the Russian economy, drive our people into despair and hunger, and bring our nation to its knees."

Rogozin, head of the Russian space agency: "The goal of the sanctions is the death of the Russian economy, causing despair and starvation among the Russian people, and bringing Russia to its knees."

I really wonder how he even arrived at that conclusion... 🤔

rustywalker82 said:To pull off the whole European Union's gas imports from Russia—we're talking about 155 billion cubic meters—you'd need to have something like 2,000 tankers out on the water every single year. That's a massive amount of logistics.
By the way, right now, spot market LNG prices are absolutely insane. If you're looking at those big shipments heading out to places like Asia, the costs are sitting at about 11 times higher than the four-year average we saw back between 2017 and 2020. It’s wild.
It’s honestly wild how they play these games. They’re out here making all these speculative threats about gas sanctions just to line Putin's pockets, and if those threats actually turn into reality, we’re basically handing over Ukrainian transit revenue on a silver platter for nothing. It's a lose-lose situation.

You know that old saying? Sometimes, the smartest move you can make is just keeping your mouth shut.

There is.

It doesn't have to be all LNG replacing everything. They'll ramp up domestic drilling and import from other countries; Norway and Algeria have already said they're increasing capacity. If things keep moving this way, Russian gas will be nothing but a memory in a few years.

Sam Alvarez4 said:NASA is reportedly tying any future cooperation on the International Space Station to the lifting of all sanctions against Russia.

Russia links space cooperation to ending sanctions
Dmitry Rogozin claimed the whole point of these sanctions was to "kill the Russian economy, drive our people into despair and hunger, and bring our nation to its knees."

Rogozin, head of the Russian space agency: "The goal of the sanctions is the death of the Russian economy, causing despair and starvation among the Russian people, and bringing Russia to its knees."

I really wonder how he even arrived at that conclusion... 🤔

True, but seriously, what does anyone actually care about what Peskov says?
Yeah, exactly, Columbus.

rowdyraven112 said:Maybe it isn't. Some idiot at BuzzFeed just posted that toilet paper prices are spiking. If it is an April Fools' prank, it'll just fool the morons who rush out to buy a year's supply of paper when they don't need to. Either way, prices will go up because of market shortages, not because of anything logical like raw material costs or shipping. Look at the masks during the pandemic—people were reselling them on Facebook for 100x the price. I needed masks before the outbreak hit. They were like thirty cents a pop. ☕I never hoarded; I just bought what I needed week to week.

Same goes for the rubles. All it takes is for someone to believe the hype and start paying in ☕

Since our media is already drowning in Soviet-style propaganda these days (bljutarnji, Imbex), they might as well ban these April Fools' pranks. Though, knowing them, they'll probably ban the truth about economic struggles soon too—can't have anyone questioning the "wise" policies of the European Union.

Looks like the gas flow to Latvia has been cut off. Unless I’ve once again taken something completely out of context, like I did with Slovack (my bad...).
edit: link

The Baltic states mostly rely on Russian gas. That’s probably why the "evil gnome" targeted them first—it’s not a coincidence, especially given how vocal their hostility has been lately, not to mention the arrests of YouTubers just for supporting Putin’s troops.

rowdytiger13 said:True, but seriously, what does anyone actually care about what Peskov says?
Yeah, exactly, Columbus.

For years they thought they were untouchable, and now that they've taken a massive hit, they're just sitting there looking shocked and offended.

rowdytiger13 said:True, but seriously, what does anyone actually care about what Peskov says?
Yeah, exactly, Columbus.

Christian Torres3 said:For years they thought they were untouchable, and now that they've taken a massive hit, they're just sitting there looking shocked and offended.

Sometimes I wonder if they're living in a total fantasy land, or if they're just saying whatever they have to say because they're terrified of the FBI...

Sam Alvarez4 said:Sometimes I wonder if they're living in a total fantasy land, or if they're just saying whatever they have to say because they're terrified of the FBI...

And really, what choice do they even have given their massive egos?
They've already gone way too deep and pushed things way too far

Sam Alvarez4 said:Sometimes I wonder if they're living in a total fantasy land, or if they're just saying whatever they have to say because they're terrified of the FBI...

It isn't the FSB they fear—it's the loss of their titles and their influence. If they were stripped of power and simply left to the mercy of the streets, they wouldn't last a single night. These people have spent years backing and lobbying for the very same accomplices they used to loot the state; yet, they also stepped on anyone else trying to grab a slice of the pie. There is no escape to the West for them, nor any chance at a redemption arc. There is only one possible outcome: in that scenario, there is no room for them. For every one of these officials, there are three others waiting in the wings, ready to take their seats and serve the Tsar while quietly lining their own pockets. Of course, they talk as if the West is useless, but even they have tucked their children and kin away in the States, ensuring they stay well out of reach of this merciless machine of state corruption.

Carl Lee27 said:...but the thing is, NS1 and NS2 each have their own individual capacity of 55 billion m3.
If you look at an average LNG tanker, it can move roughly 80 to 90 million m3 of gas. So, if we assume one of those ships makes maybe 10 to 15 trips a year running between Texas, Louisiana, or Pennsylvania and Europe, you're looking at about a billion m3 per tanker annually—which means you'd need somewhere between 100 and 150 tankers. And let's be real, a huge chunk of them are already cruising that route 24/7 anyway.

Eight years? Please, Americans have been telling this slow-to-learn continent the exact same thing since the Reagan era.

Do the math again. How are you getting 150 if you need at least 10 trips just to cover one billion? For 50 billion, it can't be 100-150.
My math isn't actually about the total number of ships (there aren't even 200 out there), it's specifically looking at Germany, not all the other countries that also import from Russia. My calculation doesn't even factor in transit time (about two weeks) or unloading time (maybe 15-20 hours). Plus, where is everyone else in the world who also imports via LNG tankers? Germany doesn't even have a single LNG terminal right now. I'm done talking about this.

I'm telling you, things will just keep going exactly as they are. People will pay through third parties or whatever, but it'll keep moving.
Cheers

@Nancy Gomez26, @
Kyle Nelson2
It’s all connected...
First, the FSB.
Then, losing everything—both now and in the future.
And finally, the darkness swallows it all up...

David Torres2 said:Do the math again. How are you getting 150 if you need at least 10 trips just to cover one billion? For 50 billion, it can't be 100-150.
My math isn't actually about the total number of ships (there aren't even 200 out there), it's specifically looking at Germany, not all the other countries that also import from Russia. My calculation doesn't even factor in transit time (about two weeks) or unloading time (maybe 15-20 hours). Plus, where is everyone else in the world who also imports via LNG tankers? Germany doesn't even have a single LNG terminal right now. I'm done talking about this.

I'm telling you, things will just keep going exactly as they are. People will pay through third parties or whatever, but it'll keep moving.
Cheers

Yeah... but when you actually dive into the specifics... take Germany, for example... they consume about 87 Billions of cubic meters annually. They import 90% of that, and half of those imports come directly from Russia. That means we're talking about roughly 40 Billions of cubic meters that would vanish instantly if imports stopped.

Then there's the consumption factor. They claim industry eats up 30–40% of the gas, households use 30% for heating, and 14% goes toward power generation... plus everything else.

A third critical variable: summer heating requirements drop off, so demand isn't constant. Because of that, there used to be a rule where imports were scaled back during the summer months.
On top of that, naive Germans left everything to "market forces," failing to prioritize building up reserves—which are currently sitting at a measly 25% capacity.

Supposedly, if Russia were to shut off the taps, the "least painful" route would be to kill power production (-14%) and pray for an early summer (-30%)... while simultaneously cramming the storage tanks using gas imports during the months when demand is naturally low.

The current paradox is this: the longer Russia continues to supply the gas, the easier it actually becomes for Germany to consolidate its position and organize the necessary stockpiles to gradually phase out their reliance on Russian gas.

It's worth noting that the government claims they will end their dependence on Russian coal and oil imports—the sectors where Russia sees the biggest profit margins—by the end of this year. That leaves only the gas issue to resolve.

Best,

Christian Torres3 said:There is.

It doesn't have to be all LNG replacing everything. They'll ramp up domestic drilling and import from other countries; Norway and Algeria have already said they're increasing capacity. If things keep moving this way, Russian gas will be nothing but a memory in a few years.

Oh yeah, thanks a ton for them already saying that. It’s been eight years since the Russian occupation of Crimea and Donbas.
And I guess those folks at OPEC will just swoop in and save Ukraine too, since they also said eight years after its occupation that they'd bump up oil production by maybe half a liter next year...

David Torres2 said:Do the math again. How are you getting 150 if you need at least 10 trips just to cover one billion? For 50 billion, it can't be 100-150.
My math isn't actually about the total number of ships (there aren't even 200 out there), it's specifically looking at Germany, not all the other countries that also import from Russia. My calculation doesn't even factor in transit time (about two weeks) or unloading time (maybe 15-20 hours). Plus, where is everyone else in the world who also imports via LNG tankers? Germany doesn't even have a single LNG terminal right now. I'm done talking about this.

I'm telling you, things will just keep going exactly as they are. People will pay through third parties or whatever, but it'll keep moving.
Cheers

There are over 650 LNG tankers currently in service, and that fleet is growing by about 40 to 50 ships every year, largely thanks to South Korea. Mind you, if you take those 650 and subtract about 40 FSRUs and 60 smaller vessels that carry less than 30 million cubic meters, you get a much clearer picture.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-tanker-fleet/

Even though your link isn't working, I think I can tell what you've become. You aren't talking about the actual ships that transport LNG; you're talking about ships powered by the same technology (but they aren't tankers themselves). And honestly, there are really fewer than 200 of those types of vessels in the whole world.