Sanctions on Russia

The gas embargo is the wrong move

Everyone’s obsessed with the gas embargo. But looking at this strategically—there are way smarter ways for the European Union to handle the chaos of this gas war with Russia.
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If the European Union actually wants to hit Putin where it hurts—his wallet—they should focus on capping what they pay EU Gazprom, rather than just obsessing over import volumes. They could pull a price cap ultimatum, setting a hard limit on how much they'll pay for Russian gas...
The thing is, a price ultimatum—much like an embargo—could gut Putin’s revenue, but it has one major perk: there’s still a chance the energy keeps flowing.
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+ bumping up import tariffs

Solid analysis and suggestions—though the translation here is a little clunky

Good point. Give us gas prices like what Orbán gets—otherwise, we’re stuck buying LNG.

One of President Trump’s most prominent policy actions in office was to raise tariffs, which significantly harm the U.S. economy. trade barriers such as tariffs increase the cost of both Consumer and producer goods and depress The economic benefits of Competition , inhibiting economic growth. Research suggests that the president’s tariffs have been directly responsible for reducing both imports and exports, raising prices, and reducing national welfare. Research also suggests that the entire cost of the tariffs has been borne by U.S. importers.[1]

https://www.americanactionforum.org/...st-of-tariffs/

Apparently, tariffs are widely considered to be some kind of magic bullet solution. 😁

Meanwhile, look at this:

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ycott-iea-says

Russia’s oil revenues are up 50% this year even as trade restrictions following the invasion of Ukraine spurred many refiners to shun its supplies, the International Energy Agency said.

Moscow earned roughly $20 billion each month in 2022 from combined sales of crude and products amounting to about 8 million barrels a day, the Paris-based IEA said in its monthly market report.

That little Moscow gnome is basically using US dollars as toilet paper.

hollowdriver13 said:https://eurasianet.org/central-asia-...-sugar-exports

So, get this: Russia is playing the big-shot humanitarian card by blocking sugar exports even from their own allies within the Eurasian Union. They're basically just looking out for themselves to make sure they don't run into shortages caused by all those sanctions. Pretty selfish, right?

https://eurasianet.org/perspectives-...h-begging-bowl

And then, once the food shortages actually start hitting, they’ll come running to Washington, D.C., begging for help.

Honestly, you don't even need a real enemy when your "ally" is Russia; that's exactly how they "manage" to keep these countries stuck in their sphere of influence.

You're quoting an article from three months ago. I don't think that actually played out the way you think:

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/...crop-stockpile

They just need to empty the silos before the next harvest.

steelfox98 said:The ruble already tanked down to 57; honestly, it’s holding up much better than it did back in February.
There was all this noise about how Russia would go bankrupt by mid-April, but the reality is their revenues this year are higher than ever. Sure, sanctions hurt, but you have to ask: who actually got hit harder?
Meanwhile, over here, anyone not living off their parents' dime can see the reality—flour jumped from $6 to $3.00, oil went from $12 to $18, and gas prices are all over the place. That’s even with government intervention; without it, things would be much worse. My apologies if my math is slightly off. Inflation in the Baltic states is hitting nearly 20%.

Those of us who have been watching this long know we saw a similar pattern eight years ago. The initial shock rattled the Russians, but long-term, it actually served them. They bolstered their financial sector, stimulated domestic industry, and flipped from being net importers to one of the biggest agricultural exporters out there.

The bottom line is that in a crisis, two things matter: food and energy. We only have food, and even that depends on energy. Right now, Americans and Russians are just sitting back eating popcorn because they have both.
A textbook example: we banned fertilizer imports, yet the US specifically carved out exemptions for them in the sanctions.
It brings me back to 2014 when the US was pulling our strings (Joe Biden boasted about how he forced us to implement sanctions), while simultaneously sanctioning things that didn't even affect them. The result? Trade between the US and Russia actually increased that year. Talk about a spectacle.

So, what? We support Russian aggression just to get cheaper flour?
What’s the price of your soul? How much would the Russians have to pay us for us to pretend everything is fine?

crimsoncyclist71 said:So, what? We support Russian aggression just to get cheaper flour?
What’s the price of your soul? How much would the Russians have to pay us for us to pretend everything is fine?

What kind of sanctions are these if they hurt us more than them? Honestly, how dense do you have to be to implement policies like this?!

The whole point of sanctions was to tank the Russian economy and force them to stop the war. I don't see that happening—not even close. We basically shot ourselves in the foot, just like I said, much to the horror of the typical American sandwich-eaters on this forum.

Joshua Myers432 said:What kind of sanctions are these if they hurt us more than them? Honestly, how dense do you have to be to implement policies like this?!

The whole point of sanctions was to tank the Russian economy and force them to stop the war. I don't see that happening—not even close. We basically shot ourselves in the foot, just like I said, much to the horror of the typical American sandwich-eaters on this forum.

Just explain the logic to me. How exactly are these sanctions supposed to work against Russia?
Why didn't they just pull the trigger on sanctions ages ago? It would be a lot better for them to live under sanctions than to keep trading freely with the most developed nations on the planet. 👍

Joshua Myers432 said:What kind of sanctions are these if they hurt us more than them? Honestly, how dense do you have to be to implement policies like this?!

The whole point of sanctions was to tank the Russian economy and force them to stop the war. I don't see that happening—not even close. We basically shot ourselves in the foot, just like I said, much to the horror of the typical American sandwich-eaters on this forum.

Honestly, it’s just pure, unadulterated Russophilia blinding people at this point...

Oh, sure, they aren't "hurting" Russia—that’s what everyone says. But let’s be real here: we all pretty much expected them to buckle instantly, right? We thought sanctions would just choke off their ability to fund this whole war machine, but—surprise, surprise—that hasn't happened yet. So now everyone's whining, asking if the sanctions were even worth it. Personally? I still say they were. Even if they end up hitting us in the ass later, it's better than nothing. Without any sanctions at all, it would have been way easier for them to pull off this "special operation." My big fear is that while the sanctions are necessary, they might not actually be enough to stop this madness
In short: the sanctions are still doing their job, they just didn't produce the immediate knockout blow we wanted.

Joshua Myers432 said:What kind of sanctions are these if they hurt us more than them? Honestly, how dense do you have to be to implement policies like this?!

The whole point of sanctions was to tank the Russian economy and force them to stop the war. I don't see that happening—not even close. We basically shot ourselves in the foot, just like I said, much to the horror of the typical American sandwich-eaters on this forum.

If they aren't actually feeling the sting, why are people constantly freaking out about them?

Every time Sergey Lavrov speaks, he’s saying that lifting the sanctions on Russia has to be part of any peace deal. Dmitry Peskov is pushing for them to be lifted so Russia can unblock the Ukrainian ports to get grain moving again, and Maria Zakharova is shouting from the rooftops that the West is in a total economic war against Russia and that these kinds of sanctions are unprecedented and becoming the new norm.

If they weren't affecting them at all, I'd just laugh it off instead of stressing out and begging for them to be dropped.🤷

wiredseal7 said:You're quoting an article from three months ago. I don't think that actually played out the way you think:

https://www.agriculture.com/markets/...crop-stockpile

They just need to empty the silos before the next harvest.

Look, these are just analyst predictions. Every other sentence is filled with stuff like "maybe," "projected," "expected," "if this happens," or "likely."
It doesn't say anywhere that Russia actually slapped a ban on exports.

Arthur Miller7 said:Oh, sure, they aren't "hurting" Russia—that’s what everyone says. But let’s be real here: we all pretty much expected them to buckle instantly, right? We thought sanctions would just choke off their ability to fund this whole war machine, but—surprise, surprise—that hasn't happened yet. So now everyone's whining, asking if the sanctions were even worth it. Personally? I still say they were. Even if they end up hitting us in the ass later, it's better than nothing. Without any sanctions at all, it would have been way easier for them to pull off this "special operation." My big fear is that while the sanctions are necessary, they might not actually be enough to stop this madness
In short: the sanctions are still doing their job, they just didn't produce the immediate knockout blow we wanted.

Of course they won't, and nobody ever suggested they would.
But for me, it's unthinkable to have no sanctions and just keep trading with that mafia state as if nothing is happening.
On the other hand, the claims that sanctions aren't affecting them are laughable. People throw around billions of dollars in raw material revenue to explain how that pathetic military stays afloat. But what good is all that money when you're running a mafia state?

ironpuma29 said:If it weren't for the European Union sanctions regarding food, there'd be massive market disruptions, and prices would spike due to low supply... For instance, Germany is facing oil shortages, most of which comes from Ukraine.
It's not a lack of flour because of sanctions, it's because the Ukrainian port is blocked by Russians.

OFF
Everything in the US got more expensive before the new year, and there's no sign of relief or shortages ending.

The only thing that makes sense to me is that two years of COVID-19 messed up the market... people lost their minds, then a war starts... let's just hope it doesn't spread like a wildfire.

Germany is a massive exporter of wheat flour, and frankly, it has absolutely nothing to do with Ukraine.

Back in 2020, Germany emerged as a massive player in the global commodities market, moving an impressive $342 million worth of Wheat Flours. This volume firmly established them as the third-largest exporter of Wheat Flours in the world. When you look at where that supply actually ends up, the distribution is quite telling. The lion's share heads over to the Netherlands, accounting for a staggering $130 million, followed by France with $89.6 million. From there, the remaining volume is spread across Austria at $24.5 million, Poland at $22.6 million, and Belgium at $20.9 million. It’s a clear picture of how deeply integrated these European trade routes remain.

Looking at the trade data for Germany, specifically regarding their wheat flour exports, there is some rather striking information to unpack here. When you dive into the numbers, you see that Germany exported $342 million in Wheat Flours. It’s a massive figure that highlights just how central they are to the global supply chain. If you track where this product is actually heading, the most significant movement is toward the Netherlands. This isn't just a minor trade route; it's a major pillar of their export economy. While we often talk about global food security in broad, sweeping terms, looking at these specific bilateral flows provides a much clearer picture of how the machinery of international trade actually functions. The scale of these shipments tells a story of deep industrial integration within Europe.

It’s blindingly obvious that German capitalists prioritize an export contract over their own neighbors. You see the exact same pattern here in the States: we focus so heavily on massive international trade deals that we end up leaving our own domestic markets high and dry. Take the wood pellet industry, for example—we push them out for global profit, and then come winter, there isn't enough heating fuel left for American families to keep their homes warm.

Joshua Myers432 said:What kind of sanctions are these if they hurt us more than them? Honestly, how dense do you have to be to implement policies like this?!

The whole point of sanctions was to tank the Russian economy and force them to stop the war. I don't see that happening—not even close. We basically shot ourselves in the foot, just like I said, much to the horror of the typical American sandwich-eaters on this forum.

Russia's GDP is projected to drop by 10 to 15% this year.

By how much will the European Union's GDP fall because of these sanctions?

Give me an answer so we can finally see who is actually bearing the brunt of this damage. ☕

The entire objective behind these sanctions was to collapse the Russian economy and force them to halt the war. I don't see that happening—not even remotely. We have essentially shot ourselves in the foot, just as I previously stated, much to the horror of the American sandwich-eaters on this forum.

These Putin supporters have been peddling this narrative since 2014, yet the reality remains that while the Russian GDP plummeted by $600 billion, the European Union's GDP grew by $900 billion during that same period.

hollowdriver13 said:Look, these are just analyst predictions. Every other sentence is filled with stuff like "maybe," "projected," "expected," "if this happens," or "likely."
It doesn't say anywhere that Russia actually slapped a ban on exports.

This part claims Russia mostly sorted out the logistics issues caused by sanctions and is moving goods out through the Black Sea:

https://english.alarabiya.net/busine...higher-exports

There was some talk earlier about export bans to certain EEU countries, but honestly, I can't tell if that ever actually happened—makes little sense if they're just shipping everywhere else anyway.

Anthony Hill5 said:Russia's GDP is projected to drop by 10 to 15% this year.

By how much will the European Union's GDP fall because of these sanctions?

Give me an answer so we can finally see who is actually bearing the brunt of this damage. ☕

The entire objective behind these sanctions was to collapse the Russian economy and force them to halt the war. I don't see that happening—not even remotely. We have essentially shot ourselves in the foot, just as I previously stated, much to the horror of the American sandwich-eaters on this forum.

These Putin supporters have been peddling this narrative since 2014, yet the reality remains that while the Russian GDP plummeted by $600 billion, the European Union's GDP grew by $900 billion during that same period.

Probably somewhere in the 5-10% range, though for us poor Americans, the real sting will come from "tactical inflation" once we fully transition over to the Euro.☕

Andrew Miller102 said:Probably somewhere in the 5-10% range, though for us poor Americans, the real sting will come from "tactical inflation" once we fully transition over to the Euro.☕

Two stupid mistakes in a single sentence—congrats ☕

wiredseal7 said:This part claims Russia mostly sorted out the logistics issues caused by sanctions and is moving goods out through the Black Sea:

https://english.alarabiya.net/busine...higher-exports

There was some talk earlier about export bans to certain EEU countries, but honestly, I can't tell if that ever actually happened—makes little sense if they're just shipping everywhere else anyway.

It is quite fascinating, isn't it? Only yesterday at the United Nations, Russian officials were busy trolling the international community by claiming that Ukrainians are unable to export grain from Odessa due to sea mines that they allegedly planted themselves, rather than acknowledging the impact of the Russian blockade.

Clearly, these mines only become an issue whenever it serves their specific narrative, don't they?

Anthony Hill5 said:It is quite fascinating, isn't it? Only yesterday at the United Nations, Russian officials were busy trolling the international community by claiming that Ukrainians are unable to export grain from Odessa due to sea mines that they allegedly planted themselves, rather than acknowledging the impact of the Russian blockade.

Clearly, these mines only become an issue whenever it serves their specific narrative, don't they?

You missed the point ☕. We're talking about exports from Russian ports on the Black Sea, not the Ukrainian ones where there might actually be mines.

By the way, I’m not buying this whole Russian story about their shipping lanes being mined.

They mined the coast because they were terrified of a Russian landing. A few storms washed some mines off the beaches and they ended up drifting toward the Bosphorus—but that's "already gone."

"Quote:"

Arthur Miller7 said:Oh, sure, they aren't "hurting" Russia—that’s what everyone says. But let’s be real here: we all pretty much expected them to buckle instantly, right? We thought sanctions would just choke off their ability to fund this whole war machine, but—surprise, surprise—that hasn't happened yet. So now everyone's whining, asking if the sanctions were even worth it. Personally? I still say they were. Even if they end up hitting us in the ass later, it's better than nothing. Without any sanctions at all, it would have been way easier for them to pull off this "special operation." My big fear is that while the sanctions are necessary, they might not actually be enough to stop this madness
In short: the sanctions are still doing their job, they just didn't produce the immediate knockout blow we wanted.

If you all thought Russia was going to fold overnight—and that sanctions would just magically solve everything—maybe take a quick look at the dictionary. Specifically, check the definitions for "inventory" versus "stockpiles."