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Sanctions on Russia

Started by Richard Wilson4 · · 👁 526 views · 9.5K replies

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Participants Richard Wilson4velvetcyclist95Jeremy Peterson4silentsurfer3rowdytiger13Carol Newman2William Anderson5Carl Cookfrozencobra50Paul Patel95Michael Davis10Gary WilsonGregory Ramos3slyfox43dustywolf13Tyler Jones6Larry Walker24Ashley Ramirez4Paul Clark80Adam Lee13northernangler8Nancy Ruiz5James Chavez91neonheron9 …
Anthony Hill5 Anthony Hill5 Regular
379 messages
joined May 2024
#3501 ·
wiredseal7 said:Oh yeah, they’re headed for a total collapse—just like what happened to the ruble a few months back.

The ruble actually strengthened because of draconian capital controls, specifically those mandates forcing companies to convert 80% of their foreign currency into rubles.

Now that exporters are starting to complain, there is even talk of lowering that requirement to 50% just to bring the ruble back to a somewhat tolerable 80:1 ratio against the dollar.

Furthermore, since citizens are effectively blocked from importing Western goods, they aren't exactly scrambling to get their hands on euros or dollars, which further bolsters the ruble—not to mention that the key interest rate is sitting at a staggering 14%. If you saw an interest rate like that within the European Union, wouldn't you be writing about its total ruin right now?

One has to wonder: what would the exchange rate of the ruble actually look like if the Central Bank wasn't intervening so heavily with capital controls, and if oil barrels weren't trading at such inflated levels?
wiredseal7 wiredseal7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jan 2009
#3502 ·
Anthony Hill5 said:The ruble actually strengthened because of draconian capital controls, specifically those mandates forcing companies to convert 80% of their foreign currency into rubles.

Now that exporters are starting to complain, there is even talk of lowering that requirement to 50% just to bring the ruble back to a somewhat tolerable 80:1 ratio against the dollar.

Furthermore, since citizens are effectively blocked from importing Western goods, they aren't exactly scrambling to get their hands on euros or dollars, which further bolsters the ruble—not to mention that the key interest rate is sitting at a staggering 14%. If you saw an interest rate like that within the European Union, wouldn't you be writing about its total ruin right now?

One has to wonder: what would the exchange rate of the ruble actually look like if the Central Bank wasn't intervening so heavily with capital controls, and if oil barrels weren't trading at such inflated levels?

Yeah, there are reasons for this—mostly because Russia's exports are irreplaceable and they're demanding payment in dollars.
But I guess those "armchair experts" on this forum didn't see that coming, did they?

Besides, thank God the interest rate is decent enough that holding cash actually pays off—instead of the endless cycle of feeding stock market speculators and printing money until the savings are worthless like they did for the last five years or so.
Grace Bennett6 Grace Bennett6 Active Member
66 messages
joined Feb 2022
#3503 ·
War doesn't build prosperity..
Amanda Allen4 Amanda Allen4 Active Member
238 messages
joined Feb 2013
#3504 ·
wiredseal7 said:Yeah, there are reasons for this—mostly because Russia's exports are irreplaceable and they're demanding payment in dollars.
But I guess those "armchair experts" on this forum didn't see that coming, did they?

Besides, thank God the interest rate is decent enough that holding cash actually pays off—instead of the endless cycle of feeding stock market speculators and printing money until the savings are worthless like they did for the last five years or so.

And how exactly am I supposed to get my hands on rubles? Where can one even buy them?
wiredseal7 wiredseal7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jan 2009
#3505 ·
Amanda Allen4 said:And how exactly am I supposed to get my hands on rubles? Where can one even buy them?

Russia already laid out the plan—it goes through JPMorgan Chase 😁
analogbear5 analogbear5 Regular
571 messages
joined Aug 2019
#3506 ·
wiredseal7 said:Yeah, there are reasons for this—mostly because Russia's exports are irreplaceable and they're demanding payment in dollars.
But I guess those "armchair experts" on this forum didn't see that coming, did they?

Besides, thank God the interest rate is decent enough that holding cash actually pays off—instead of the endless cycle of feeding stock market speculators and printing money until the savings are worthless like they did for the last five years or so.

Which helps exports more: a strong dollar or a weak one?
Which helps imports more: a strong dollar or a weak one?
And which one helps curb inflation: a strong dollar or a weak one?
darkwolf20 darkwolf20 Member
16 messages
joined Apr 2022
#3507 ·
wiredseal7 said:Oh yeah, they’re headed for a total collapse—just like what happened to the ruble a few months back.

Everything is absolutely wonderful for a Russian bot living in Russia. If I had actually entertained the idea of hoarding some rubles for savings, I’d have to wonder where exactly one would go to find them. Perhaps we should all try moving some actual capital instead of just shouting into the void on this forum.
analogbear5 analogbear5 Regular
571 messages
joined Aug 2019
#3508 ·
It’s honestly pointless trying to explain how the official exchange rate has zero connection to reality when capital controls are this tight. It happens every single time.

Since an overpriced dollar kills exports, it's pretty obvious this rate is just a move to aggressively crush inflation—and keep up appearances that everything is running smoothly.
Gerald Chavez7 Gerald Chavez7 Active Member
173 messages
joined Apr 2021
#3509 ·
wiredseal7 said:Oh yeah, they’re headed for a total collapse—just like what happened to the ruble a few months back.

Can a Russian actually walk into a bank and buy 10,000 euros or dollars? Like, say they sell their car, decide "thanks, I'll take that in hard currency instead," and head to a bank or an exchange bureau to swap their precious rubles for USD?
Amanda Allen4 Amanda Allen4 Active Member
238 messages
joined Feb 2013
#3510 ·

analogbear5 said:It’s honestly pointless trying to explain how the official exchange rate has zero connection to reality when capital controls are this tight. It happens every single time.

Since an overpriced dollar kills exports, it's pretty obvious this rate is just a move to aggressively crush inflation—and keep up appearances that everything is running smoothly.

It’s exactly as I said—there are internal enemies and external ones. But let’s be clear: those within our own borders are far more dangerous, and they need to be neutralized first!
swiftjackal11 swiftjackal11 Regular
271 messages
joined May 2018
#3511 ·
With the ruble finally gaining some ground, those pro-Russia folks can head over to Moscow and pick up a new car even cheaper than before the war started.
electricsurfer47 electricsurfer47 Active Member
177 messages
joined Jun 2018
#3512 ·
swiftjackal11 said:With the ruble finally gaining some ground, those pro-Russia folks can head over to Moscow and pick up a new car even cheaper than before the war started.

Can you even drive it out there? Like, get it registered and everything?
Bryan Jones82 Bryan Jones82 Member
29 messages
joined Dec 2015
#3513 ·
I’ve been checking out grocery prices lately, and man, some stuff is getting ridiculously expensive:



Tomatoes are over $10, potatoes are up $3.25, apples are way past $6.75.... Part of it is because the dollar is getting stronger, making things look pricier when you convert them, but honestly, most of it is just plain old inflation.
coastalmarlin64 coastalmarlin64 Member
20 messages
joined Apr 2006
#3514 ·
Bryan Jones82 said:I’ve been checking out grocery prices lately, and man, some stuff is getting ridiculously expensive:



Tomatoes are over $10, potatoes are up $3.25, apples are way past $6.75.... Part of it is because the dollar is getting stronger, making things look pricier when you convert them, but honestly, most of it is just plain old inflation.

Plus, their own Deputy Governor basically admitted that the sanctions are going to hit them the hardest—we won't really feel the full weight of it until maybe the third quarter of this year.
wiredseal7 wiredseal7 Regular
320 messages
joined Jan 2009
#3515 ·
analogbear5 said:Which helps exports more: a strong dollar or a weak one?
Which helps imports more: a strong dollar or a weak one?
And which one helps curb inflation: a strong dollar or a weak one?

Who actually thinks a strong dollar is perfect?
I was looking at those predictions where they thought the dollar would hit 200 against their currency—which honestly would have been way worse for them than just having a strong currency. The West basically tried to sledgehammer their exchange rate back in March, hoping to tank the Russian economy, but it didn't quite land the way they planned.

Gerald Chavez7 said:Can a Russian actually walk into a bank and buy 10,000 euros or dollars? Like, say they sell their car, decide "thanks, I'll take that in hard currency instead," and head to a bank or an exchange bureau to swap their precious rubles for USD?

With how much the value is shifting, I'm not sure it's even worth swapping for foreign cash right now. Did a black market pop up where the "real" rate is 200 to the dollar? Haven't heard anything, and since the Ukrainian media is always full of horror stories coming out of Russia, I wouldn't be surprised if it exists somewhere under the radar.
Brenda Murphy3 Brenda Murphy3 Regular
361 messages
joined Mar 2023
#3516 ·
wiredseal7 said:Who actually thinks a strong dollar is perfect?
I was looking at those predictions where they thought the dollar would hit 200 against their currency—which honestly would have been way worse for them than just having a strong currency. The West basically tried to sledgehammer their exchange rate back in March, hoping to tank the Russian economy, but it didn't quite land the way they planned.

With how much the value is shifting, I'm not sure it's even worth swapping for foreign cash right now. Did a black market pop up where the "real" rate is 200 to the dollar? Haven't heard anything, and since the Ukrainian media is always full of horror stories coming out of Russia, I wouldn't be surprised if it exists somewhere under the radar.

Look, sorry, but do you seriously believe this stuff you're typing? Thousands of Russians have already opened offshore accounts abroad just to stash their hard-earned cash. And let's be real—there isn't a single person left in Russia who wouldn't sprint to the bank tomorrow to swap their Rubles for Dollars at this rate if they actually could... but they can't. That right there is all the proof you need regarding how "strong" this Ruble actually is.
urbanheron4 urbanheron4 Active Member
56 messages
joined Mar 2022
#3517 ·
Here’s the deal with the ruble. For the most part, we're talking about incredibly low transaction volumes, and the exchange rate is basically being propped up artificially. If they actually let the market take the wheel, the whole thing would crater instantly.

https://qz.com/2167447/how-russia-de...utm_source=YPL
analogbear5 analogbear5 Regular
571 messages
joined Aug 2019
#3518 ·
wiredseal7 said:Who actually thinks a strong dollar is perfect?
I was looking at those predictions where they thought the dollar would hit 200 against their currency—which honestly would have been way worse for them than just having a strong currency. The West basically tried to sledgehammer their exchange rate back in March, hoping to tank the Russian economy, but it didn't quite land the way they planned.

With how much the value is shifting, I'm not sure it's even worth swapping for foreign cash right now. Did a black market pop up where the "real" rate is 200 to the dollar? Haven't heard anything, and since the Ukrainian media is always full of horror stories coming out of Russia, I wouldn't be surprised if it exists somewhere under the radar.

Look, I wasn't asking these questions to prove a strong ruble means the Russian economy is tanking. My point was that the ruble is strong because the Russian government is making it happen. If you look at the answers to these questions, you can pretty clearly see what their economic policy goals are.
Nathan Evans78 Nathan Evans78 Regular
283 messages
joined Aug 2019
#3519 ·
The Indian Energy Minister, Shri Hardeep pura, has flatly rejected any suggestions that his nation should stop importing oil from Russia.

Honestly, my own wallet feels like it's subsidizing Hardeepa and folks just like him. ☕
Amanda Allen4 Amanda Allen4 Active Member
238 messages
joined Feb 2013
#3520 ·
urbanheron4 said:Here’s the deal with the ruble. For the most part, we're talking about incredibly low transaction volumes, and the exchange rate is basically being propped up artificially. If they actually let the market take the wheel, the whole thing would crater instantly.

https://qz.com/2167447/how-russia-de...utm_source=YPL

And if even that fails to fix things, you could always just scrap money entirely—something Marks laid out a long time ago.

If the late leaders of the USSR had actually followed through with their Marxist nonsense over in Russia, we wouldn't be dealing with this mess.

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