Sanctions on Russia

Nathan Evans78 said:One day you're looking at a company needing maybe 7 or 8 billion, then the finance folks start talking about "just a few" billion, and before you know it, step by step, they could somehow balloon those deficits into the trillions by next winter. 🤣

The American energy provider NextEra Energy has requested a multi-billion dollar loan from the government. According to CEO Veli-Matti Reinikkala, the company is facing much higher collateral requirements when purchasing power due to skyrocketing electricity prices across European markets.

It all just points to the fact that the universe seeks equilibrium...

For years, they enjoyed incredibly cheap gas, and now they’re going to be footing the bill at much higher prices for a while.

When you finally sit down to do the math for the long haul, it’ll turn out they paid pretty much the standard average rate all along...

The bottom line? You’ve got to stop letting blackmailers run the show, because sooner or later they’ll screw you over anyway, and in the end, they won't have been worth the trouble...

Gas storage levels here in the States are sitting at 76%—we did the math on how many days that actually lasts us
Even though US gas storage is at 76%, that’s really only enough to cover about 40 days of average consumption. That's basically half of what the average in the European Union looks like

Took you guys long enough to read this one....

driftingtinker said:Gas storage levels here in the States are sitting at 76%—we did the math on how many days that actually lasts us
Even though US gas storage is at 76%, that’s really only enough to cover about 40 days of average consumption. That's basically half of what the average in the European Union looks like

Took you guys long enough to read this one....

Honestly, I'm wondering how they even arrived at that math.
If the data on this site ( Gas Infrastructure Europe ) is accurate, the US peak usage was 1,1642 TWh between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2022.
Usage in all other months was significantly lower.
Current storage levels are sitting at 3.6416 TWh.

casualtiger2 said:Honestly, I'm wondering how they even arrived at that math.
If the data on this site ( Gas Infrastructure Europe ) is accurate, the US peak usage was 1,1642 TWh between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2022.
Usage in all other months was significantly lower.
Current storage levels are sitting at 3.6416 TWh.

The math is irrelevant. What matters is the manufactured panic and the resulting clickbait.

I’m seeing all over Twitter that small business owners across the West in the European Union are absolutely drowning under bills that are triple what they used to be. Honestly, just give them a call on their landline and tell them to take a deep breath—everything is going to work out eventually.

The fact that capacity utilization is high doesn't mean much if they don't get massive subsidies, debt forgiveness, or some kind of freeze on payments. Let's not forget that those huge stimulus checks during COVID-19 were what pushed us halfway to this current inflation rate, while that little gnome in the administration pushed us through the other half. ☕

@ casualtiger2
In that fourth column (S/C %), the number is just showing the stored inventory as a percentage of total annual consumption (like 22% for the European Union and 11% for the US).

casualtiger2 As if I haven't heard this one before, though I suppose there’s always something new to consider when you look at the bigger picture...
I can't help but wonder how they actually arrived at these specific figures... I mean, looking at the math behind it all, one really has to sit back and ponder the methodology they used to reach such a conclusion...
If we take all the data presented on this particular site at face value... it really makes you wonder about the broader implications for the market, doesn't it... though I suppose one shouldn't jump to conclusions without seeing the full picture first... When you start looking at the sheer scale of the energy infrastructure spread across the United States, specifically regarding how we manage our natural gas networks, it really makes you stop and think about the complexity of it all... It’s one thing to talk about supply and demand in a vacuum, but it’s quite another to consider the massive web of pipelines, storage facilities, and processing plants that actually keep the lights on and the heaters running from Maine down to California... There is such an intricate, almost delicate balance required to maintain this kind of continental-scale grid, especially when geopolitical shifts start rattling the cage of global markets... One can't help but wonder how much of our current strategic planning is being reshaped by these shifting dependencies, as we try to fortify our own domestic systems while navigating the unpredictable tides of international energy politics... It truly is a fascinating, albeit daunting, puzzle to solve... You know, you're absolutely right... it really does seem like America has been the one pulling the most from the reserves lately... Looking back at the data from the start of the year through January 31st, 2022, we're seeing a total of about 1,164.2 TWh... which is quite an interesting figure when you really sit down and let it sink in...
The consumption levels during the remaining months were actually quite a bit lower than what we initially anticipated...
The current load is sitting right at about 3.6416 TWh... quite an interesting figure to observe at this moment...

Wait, hold on just a second... are you telling me that for this entire stretch of your calculations, you've been pulling data based solely on what’s being drawn from storage, and then you're presenting that to us as if it were the total consumption figure...?

I feel like I might actually end up hurting myself... 🤦

I’m sure the self-proclaimed experts on this forum will be more than happy to jump in and explain why he’s completely wrong. 🙄

On Monday, Sadad Ali Hussein—the former Saudi Aramco Vice President and founder of the Saudi Arabian energy firm Hussein Energy—sat down with CNBC to break down the current state of natural gas supply and demand, specifically looking at how sanctions against Russia are hitting the global economy.

The gist of it: During the interview, Hussein pointed out that Russia accounts for about 10% of the world's gas production, pumping roughly 60 billion cubic feet annually, while European nations produce about 14 billion. His main takeaway? Neither the USA nor OPEC is going to be able to step in and bridge that massive gap in natural gas capacity that Europe desperately needs right now.

Hussein suggested that if the war in Ukraine doesn't reach some kind of resolution, we could be looking at a permanent ceasefire or even long-term energy embargoes. Since the European Union just doesn't have the resources to cover its own energy requirements, they're stuck.

...

He also noted that this could leave the European economy in a brutal hole that takes years to climb out of. Meanwhile, the Russian economy might actually bounce back much faster, simply because their energy exports are still moving.

Could The rise of Natural gas Demand Lead to a Cease-Fire in Ukraine? Former Saudi Aramco Vice President Thinks so

Russia doesn't actually have an economy; they just have a massive export business for raw materials.

Paul Anderson7 said:Russia doesn't actually have an economy; they just have a massive export business for raw materials.

It’s because they're being led by a bunch of fools driven by nothing but pure greed.

They seem much more interested in following the lead of those Middle Eastern oil giants than, say, taking a page out of the Norwegian playbook...

^ And how exactly does that help Europe, considering they have the economy but zero raw materials? 🤔

Not likely; the European Union economy is in a real bind right now, and it’s going to stay that way for a while until they finally get their act together and secure new supply chains.
The Russian economy isn't actually taking a massive hit—it's just the regular people who are feeling the squeeze, which doesn't bother the folks at the top much since those guys are pretty used to dealing with spikes and hardship.

Both the Russian and European Union economies are going to be struggling until some kind of mutual exchange picks up again. I don't expect them to go crawling back to their old contracts, but eventually, there will be trade across the board because that's where the massive amounts of money are. Both sides are looking for a way out of this mess, I'm certain of it.

The European Union really screwed itself by sacrificing its short-term growth, though maybe there's a silver lining if this teaches them a long-term lesson about never relying too heavily on a single source. On our end, we’ve certainly learned exactly what the Republican Party is all about, so it’s hardly surprising everyone is still shocked that they managed to fleece ExxonMobil.
Russia, on the other hand, has set itself up for long-term trouble; they're losing a major customer who, once things settle down, will likely buy less and less from them every year. Plus, the lack of high-end tech and the exodus of major corporations won't do them any favors. Still, the people in charge will keep living the same lives they always have, while the general public ends up footing the bill for this whole adventure.

Of course, we as citizens within the European Union will pay the price too, but honestly, I’d much rather deal with a mess in the European Union than in Russia.

The United Kingdom is basically falling apart at the seams:

https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk...ions-a-269836/

I mean, because of all those sanctions, they can't even get their hands on bitumen anymore. It’s just... things are going south.

Honestly, it looks like our roads are headed for even worse conditions than they already are, which isn't much of a stretch considering they haven't exactly been anything to write home about lately.

driftingtinker said:Gas storage levels here in the States are sitting at 76%—we did the math on how many days that actually lasts us
Even though US gas storage is at 76%, that’s really only enough to cover about 40 days of average consumption. That's basically half of what the average in the European Union looks like

Took you guys long enough to read this one....

Look, let’s be real—we’re actually sitting in a way better spot than most of the other countries in the European Union right now. Between having access to our own LNG supplies and being able to handle our own production, we've got a massive leg up on the competition.

Donna Harris11 said:The United Kingdom is basically falling apart at the seams:

https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk...ions-a-269836/

I mean, because of all those sanctions, they can't even get their hands on bitumen anymore. It’s just... things are going south.

Isn't bitumen actually derived from crude oil? And if that's the case, aren't the Brits pulling massive amounts of oil out of the North Sea? 🤔

Donna Harris11 said:The United Kingdom is basically falling apart at the seams:

https://www.johnogroat-journal.co.uk...ions-a-269836/

I mean, because of all those sanctions, they can't even get their hands on bitumen anymore. It’s just... things are going south.

Most of the time they've just been building roads out of concrete anyway, so it's not like it's some massive disaster. Concrete roads actually last longer, though they don't handle the freeze-thaw cycles quite as well—but hey, they're already used to dealing with that.

casualtiger2 said:Honestly, I'm wondering how they even arrived at that math.
If the data on this site ( Gas Infrastructure Europe ) is accurate, the US peak usage was 1,1642 TWh between January 1, 2022, and January 31, 2022.
Usage in all other months was significantly lower.
Current storage levels are sitting at 3.6416 TWh.

Consumption is based on delivered energy, which is calculated using current weather conditions here in America. Besides, district heating only covers a handful of cities, while in the coldest spots—like the mountains—people rely on individual stoves. You probably saw the news today about pellet prices skyrocketing for those stoves. While other countries are banning pellet exports, this administration is allowing them to fly out the door, raking in huge profits similar to that recent gas scandal. Who gives a damn about the people in the mountain towns?

Look at the forecast for that month.

http://hikersbay.com/climate/january/america?lang=en

Average temperatures were sitting between 45 and 57 degrees Fahrenheit. In weather like that, you aren't delivering nearly as much energy for heating. Honestly, I hope we get temperatures like that this winter. Otherwise, people are going to die—either from freezing or from carbon monoxide poisoning because they're installing stoves in apartments that vent into chimneys already clogged with ventilation systems. Sounds catastrophic? It’s the exact situation currently facing Washington, D.C.

rowdyraven112 said:Consumption is based on delivered energy, which is calculated using current weather conditions here in America. Besides, district heating only covers a handful of cities, while in the coldest spots—like the mountains—people rely on individual stoves. You probably saw the news today about pellet prices skyrocketing for those stoves. While other countries are banning pellet exports, this administration is allowing them to fly out the door, raking in huge profits similar to that recent gas scandal. Who gives a damn about the people in the mountain towns?

Look at the forecast for that month.

http://hikersbay.com/climate/january/america?lang=en

Average temperatures were sitting between 45 and 57 degrees Fahrenheit. In weather like that, you aren't delivering nearly as much energy for heating. Honestly, I hope we get temperatures like that this winter. Otherwise, people are going to die—either from freezing or from carbon monoxide poisoning because they're installing stoves in apartments that vent into chimneys already clogged with ventilation systems. Sounds catastrophic? It’s the exact situation currently facing Washington, D.C.

Look, I hate being the devil’s advocate for those crooks over at the White House, but you have to wonder how much actual room to maneuver this government even has. Between all the legal baggage from joining the European Union—specifically that "free movement of goods" nonsense—and how much the folks here blindly cheer for every little step toward "progress," we're stuck. Combine that with an administration that basically just takes orders from the central committee in Brussels, and it's pretty clear: we've basically turned ourselves into a colony.

By the way, Canada and Mexico have already banned pellet exports, and they used to be our biggest suppliers. But since they aren't part of the EU, they actually have the power to pull that move.

Kate Lewis3 said:Look, I hate being the devil’s advocate for those crooks over at the White House, but you have to wonder how much actual room to maneuver this government even has. Between all the legal baggage from joining the European Union—specifically that "free movement of goods" nonsense—and how much the folks here blindly cheer for every little step toward "progress," we're stuck. Combine that with an administration that basically just takes orders from the central committee in Brussels, and it's pretty clear: we've basically turned ourselves into a colony.

By the way, Canada and Mexico have already banned pellet exports, and they used to be our biggest suppliers. But since they aren't part of the EU, they actually have the power to pull that move.

So... what, we're a colony and we should just start taking cues from Mexico and Canada? 😵😁

For real, man, do you actually believe the crap you're typing?

Besides, you can walk away from the EU whenever you want. You just need to round up enough people in America who'll actually back you up... So, good luck with that. 😁 ...

Brenda Murphy3 said:So... what, we're a colony and we should just start taking cues from Mexico and Canada? 😵😁

For real, man, do you actually believe the crap you're typing?

Besides, you can walk away from the EU whenever you want. You just need to round up enough people in America who'll actually back you up... So, good luck with that. 😁 ...

On paper? No. In reality? Absolutely. If the US Federal Government can't stop raw materials needed for American citizens from being shipped off during an emergency like this, then we're basically acting like a colony run by governors sent straight from the home office.

Canada and Mexico banned pellet exports because they figured other heating options—you know, gas and electricity—were gonna spike, leaving people scrambling for alternatives like pellets.

As for finding "enough people," that's why I used the term "brain fogged population." Some folks genuinely thought America would transform into some perfectly organized utopia overnight just by joining the European Union.