Sanctions on Russia

Russia has shut down Nord Stream indefinitely. Back when they first started making threats, I predicted right here on this thread that they’d cut off a third of the supply. And here we are.

They’ve officially gone full "if we have to suffer, you suffer too" with their logic.
It won't be easy for anyone, but we'll find a way to scrape by. That said, I suspect Germany is looking at the single largest drop in living standards within the EU.

hollowdriver13 said:Actually, that's not really how it works. There isn't some official ban on buying or selling here; you can't just have Russ yelling about how the West is blocking trade. It used to be that Russ would say, "My oil, my gas, my toys," and now the West is basically saying, "Sure, you can play, but you have to follow the rules." We control the oceans and the cargo insurance, which pretty much makes us the house in this casino. If you want to play the game, those are the terms.

So, honestly, the ball is in China and India's court now. If they really want to keep grabbing Russian oil, they're going to have to be the ones putting the squeeze on the White House to drop the prices down to a level that actually makes sense for shipping it all the way to them.

At the end of the day, a sale is just an agreement between a buyer and a seller. That’s it. The buyer won't pay more than $X, the seller won't go below $X+30, and everyone goes their separate ways.

Joshua Myers432 said:At the end of the day, a sale is just an agreement between a buyer and a seller. That’s it. The buyer won't pay more than $X, the seller won't go below $X+30, and everyone goes their separate ways.

Sure, they don't *have* to reach an agreement and just walk away, but this setup basically pulls India and China into the sanctions game without either side being able to whine about a direct ban.

Here’s a super simple way to look at it: say you strike a deal with someone on Alibaba for a certain price and buy something, you still need a logistics company to actually deliver it, right? I mean, what's the point of your little agreement if nobody is willing to pick up the goods and ship them?

And then, if India and China really want that Russian oil, they'll put pressure on the White House to sell it at prices that make shipping it worthwhile. The whole idea is to set a price point that significantly guts the revenue the US is getting from its oil exports.

Of course, they could just use their own laws to say no, but then their exports start tanking toward zero, which means they lose out on revenue anyway. So, it's a bit of a lose-lose for them.

Does this fall under the category of sanctions too? 🤔

Chermak reportedly used money from Russ to snag a massive villa in a luxury spa town for about $14 million...

hollowdriver13 said:Sure, they don't *have* to reach an agreement and just walk away, but this setup basically pulls India and China into the sanctions game without either side being able to whine about a direct ban.

Here’s a super simple way to look at it: say you strike a deal with someone on Alibaba for a certain price and buy something, you still need a logistics company to actually deliver it, right? I mean, what's the point of your little agreement if nobody is willing to pick up the goods and ship them?

And then, if India and China really want that Russian oil, they'll put pressure on the White House to sell it at prices that make shipping it worthwhile. The whole idea is to set a price point that significantly guts the revenue the US is getting from its oil exports.

Of course, they could just use their own laws to say no, but then their exports start tanking toward zero, which means they lose out on revenue anyway. So, it's a bit of a lose-lose for them.

That all makes sense, but why wasn't this applied a year ago, two years ago, five years ago? It’s always been the same setup: someone produces, someone else ships. This is nothing more than a continuation of the sanctions, just wrapped up in some soft, Westernized packaging. 🤣

ExxonMobil was trading at $74 a barrel yesterday... look, before the G7 Russia price caps kicked in, the Russians were already bleeding out, having to slap a 20-25% discount on everything just to find a buyer. Now? They’re probably going to have to slash those prices even deeper just to get anyone to look their way...

Natural gas prices over in Europe have been taking a massive dive, dropping from about 335 EUR/MWh back on August 26, 2022, down to 215 EUR/MWh by September 2, 2022

Germany’s got their gas storage sitting at 85% capacity, while we’re hovering around 78% here in the States.

Is it just me, or does it feel like the massive (quiet) majority of people in the EU are actually AGAINST the sanctions on Russia?

Am I even allowed to say that without everyone immediately labeling me a "Russian agent"?

Sam Carter said:Is it just me, or does it feel like the massive (quiet) majority of people in the EU are actually AGAINST the sanctions on Russia?

Am I even allowed to say that without everyone immediately labeling me a "Russian agent"?

Go ahead. Having an imagination isn't a crime.

Adam Lee13 said:ExxonMobil was trading at $74 a barrel yesterday... look, before the G7 Russia price caps kicked in, the Russians were already bleeding out, having to slap a 20-25% discount on everything just to find a buyer. Now? They’re probably going to have to slash those prices even deeper just to get anyone to look their way...

One cannot simply slash discounts into infinity, can one? And isn't that precisely the ultimate objective behind these price caps? As the market price of oil drops, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Russians to sustain those heavy discounts, because eventually, their sales will cease to be profitable at all.

So, the US is starting to dump oil from the strategic reserves onto the market, and I guess that should hopefully hold things over until the end of November.

Sam Carter said:Is it just me, or does it feel like the massive (quiet) majority of people in the EU are actually AGAINST the sanctions on Russia?

Am I even allowed to say that without everyone immediately labeling me a "Russian agent"?

It’s like that old saying, "Grandma dreams of what her heart desires."
Best,

Sam Carter said:Is it just me, or does it feel like the massive (quiet) majority of people in the EU are actually AGAINST the sanctions on Russia?

Am I even allowed to say that without everyone immediately labeling me a "Russian agent"?

Well, I can't say why you feel that way.
Maybe that's just the bubble you're living in.

Anthony Hill5 said:One cannot simply slash discounts into infinity, can one? And isn't that precisely the ultimate objective behind these price caps? As the market price of oil drops, it becomes increasingly difficult for the Russians to sustain those heavy discounts, because eventually, their sales will cease to be profitable at all.

Anyone actually going along with this 'price cap' won't even be getting discounted oil; they'll probably just have to buy Saudi oil at the standard market rate.

Donna Harris11 said:Anyone actually going along with this 'price cap' won't even be getting discounted oil; they'll probably just have to buy Saudi oil at the standard market rate.

The people pushing for these price caps aren't even planning on buying Russian oil in the first place, so aren't all these threats coming from Russia just shots fired into thin air?

Anthony Hill5 said:The people pushing for these price caps aren't even planning on buying Russian oil in the first place, so aren't all these threats coming from Russia just shots fired into thin air?

Actually, I think prices are just going to climb for them, since everyone’s going to be scrambling for Saudi oil instead.

I mean, if you want a price cap to actually work... I don't know, maybe Russia would have to actually agree to a limit? Or else OPEC members would need to ramp up production. That's the only way, I guess.

Otherwise, we're probably just heading straight for a global recession.

Anthony Hill5 said:The people pushing for these price caps aren't even planning on buying Russian oil in the first place, so aren't all these threats coming from Russia just shots fired into thin air?

That’s just one small part of the ring slowly tightening around Russia—exactly the kind of strategic leverage that was missing back in 1941 when Hitler launched a similar campaign.
We can't afford to forget that this aggression is already seven months old, and frankly, it looks to me like Putin has already played his strongest cards.
Best regards,

Donna Harris11 said:Actually, I think prices are just going to climb for them, since everyone’s going to be scrambling for Saudi oil instead.

I mean, if you want a price cap to actually work... I don't know, maybe Russia would have to actually agree to a limit? Or else OPEC members would need to ramp up production. That's the only way, I guess.

Otherwise, we're probably just heading straight for a global recession.

Sure, prices might rise, but the whole point here is to squeeze Putin's regime so they walk away with as little profit as possible.
We're already seeing millions of dollars in gas revenue vanish, all based on the hope that by causing this much collateral damage, we can eventually choke off their ability to function—even if that solution feels a bit short-sighted right now.
Best,

Bryan Booth82 said:Sure, prices might rise, but the whole point here is to squeeze Putin's regime so they walk away with as little profit as possible.
We're already seeing millions of dollars in gas revenue vanish, all based on the hope that by causing this much collateral damage, we can eventually choke off their ability to function—even if that solution feels a bit short-sighted right now.
Best,

The value of the gas they are burning is essentially zero. For any commodity—gas or otherwise—to hold actual value, you need a buyer willing to pay for it. From their perspective, it would be far more logical to simply halt production; at least then, that gas stays in the ground, potentially retaining some worth for a future date. Instead, by burning it pointlessly—so they claim—they increase global pollution. Yet, ironically, this act indirectly helps reduce the consumption of other fuels for heating; if the winters end up milder, we’ll burn less. One could almost call them great humanists for doing this, supposedly "out of concern for others."😉

Sam Carter said:Is it just me, or does it feel like the massive (quiet) majority of people in the EU are actually AGAINST the sanctions on Russia?

Am I even allowed to say that without everyone immediately labeling me a "Russian agent"?

By default, you just have a skewed perception and lack critical thinking.