Sanctions on Russia

wearytrucker22 said:So, who’s actually left to buy all that Russian crude?
China is pulling in about 7.5 million barrels a day. That means they might pick up maybe 1.5 to 2 million from the Russians at most—though that’s up from just 1 million previously. Then you’ve got India importing 4.4 million barrels, and they might take on maybe 1 million from them too.
Meanwhile, Russia is pumping out 5 million barrels a day. Good luck finding enough buyers for that remaining 3 million barrels every single day.

Everyone who desperately needs cheap oil will find a way. Everything else is just political theater and media sensationalism...
Don't you see that there are countries out there where the primary energy source might as well be cow farts?

A number of nations have no proven reserves at all. No matter how advanced they are technologically, there is no oil to drill. This means that 100% of their oil needs has to be imported. With oil above $100 a barrel, this is not an enviable position.
https://247wallst.com/special-report...-have-any-oil/

So now... what happens?

Are we really going to wreck our own economy just because of a war in Ukraine—a place some people can't even locate on a map? I mean, look, even Canada is digging its heels in... so what on earth do you expect from some minor player on the other side of the world?

Is the US Navy going to set up a "quarantine" and start intercepting Russian tankers? If that were the case, why haven't the Iranians and their entire oil industry collapsed, despite being under sanctions for decades? Sure, Russian sales might take a hit for a little while, but for how long? Take Pakistan, a US ally, for instance; they're saying Russian oil is saving them about $6 billion a year, which is roughly the same amount the IMF deals with in annual credit lines...

Then you have Biden heading over to KSA to beg for an extra 2 million barrels—he practically played nice with the Crown Prince and looked the other way on everything, including those chemical incidents involving American citizens—only for OPEC+ to end up agreeing to a 2 million barrel production cut anyway.
You can chant your mantras about politics, justice, and altruism all you want... and hey, kudos to your optimism, but at the end of the day, money is money...

Everything you're bringing up is fair game for debate, and on certain points, you're absolutely spot on.
But you're missing the forest for the trees here—the whole point is to choke out Russian oil and gas production as much as humanly possible, and whatever manages to leak through should be hit with enough pressure that they're forced to sell at a 20-30% discount just to stay afloat. That’s really all there is to it. There isn't some grand philosophy behind it.

brightheron64 said:Everyone who desperately needs cheap oil will find a way. Everything else is just political theater and media sensationalism...
Don't you see that there are countries out there where the primary energy source might as well be cow farts?

A number of nations have no proven reserves at all. No matter how advanced they are technologically, there is no oil to drill. This means that 100% of their oil needs has to be imported. With oil above $100 a barrel, this is not an enviable position.
https://247wallst.com/special-report...-have-any-oil/

So now... what happens?

Are we really going to wreck our own economy just because of a war in Ukraine—a place some people can't even locate on a map? I mean, look, even Canada is digging its heels in... so what on earth do you expect from some minor player on the other side of the world?

Is the US Navy going to set up a "quarantine" and start intercepting Russian tankers? If that were the case, why haven't the Iranians and their entire oil industry collapsed, despite being under sanctions for decades? Sure, Russian sales might take a hit for a little while, but for how long? Take Pakistan, a US ally, for instance; they're saying Russian oil is saving them about $6 billion a year, which is roughly the same amount the IMF deals with in annual credit lines...

Then you have Biden heading over to KSA to beg for an extra 2 million barrels—he practically played nice with the Crown Prince and looked the other way on everything, including those chemical incidents involving American citizens—only for OPEC+ to end up agreeing to a 2 million barrel production cut anyway.
You can chant your mantras about politics, justice, and altruism all you want... and hey, kudos to your optimism, but at the end of the day, money is money...

Belgium has 10 million people.

Nigeria has 200 million.

Their economies are basically the same size.

And looking at South America, their richest country is still poorer than us.

Things don't move much without the West...

Jesse Hughes6 said:Everything you're bringing up is fair game for debate, and on certain points, you're absolutely spot on.
But you're missing the forest for the trees here—the whole point is to choke out Russian oil and gas production as much as humanly possible, and whatever manages to leak through should be hit with enough pressure that they're forced to sell at a 20-30% discount just to stay afloat. That’s really all there is to it. There isn't some grand philosophy behind it.

I was simply pointing out a fundamental cause and its inevitable fallout, using Pakistan as an example.

What truly caught me off guard—and frankly, left me a bit stunned—was the decision made by OPEC. Despite all this global rhetoric about goodwill and a general consensus regarding the need to pressure Russia... they seem set to ensure that even with a 30 percent "discount," the Russians will still be raking in massive amounts of cash, even with their reduced output.

The fastest way to actually cripple the Russians would be to drive the agreed-upon oil price down to $60, but we aren't likely to see that scenario play out. Without that shift, the Russians will eventually bump their production back up, because let's face it, many players on "the other side" have zero interest in paying premium prices indefinitely for something they could realistically acquire at a 30% discount.

Richard Wilson4 said:Belgium has 10 million people.

Nigeria has 200 million.

Their economies are basically the same size.

And looking at South America, their richest country is still poorer than us.

Things don't move much without the West...

But just how much of the global population does that group actually represent, out of nearly 8 billion people?

Sure, maybe a few folks living in the Arctic might still rely on seal blubber for cooking or warmth, but the vast majority of the world depends on energy and fuel derived primarily from oil and gas...

I’ve got a question regarding the US and the sanctions being leveled against Russians.
Specifically, what kind of sanctions is our government actually required to enforce? For instance—and I was thinking about this while looking at some old industrial reports—would a company like General Electric be allowed to export a massive transformer to Russia right now? Or even to Belarus?
Because, theoretically, could they ship it to Belarus only to have it passed along to Russia??

brightheron64 said:I was simply pointing out a fundamental cause and its inevitable fallout, using Pakistan as an example.

What truly caught me off guard—and frankly, left me a bit stunned—was the decision made by OPEC. Despite all this global rhetoric about goodwill and a general consensus regarding the need to pressure Russia... they seem set to ensure that even with a 30 percent "discount," the Russians will still be raking in massive amounts of cash, even with their reduced output.

The fastest way to actually cripple the Russians would be to drive the agreed-upon oil price down to $60, but we aren't likely to see that scenario play out. Without that shift, the Russians will eventually bump their production back up, because let's face it, many players on "the other side" have zero interest in paying premium prices indefinitely for something they could realistically acquire at a 30% discount.

But just how much of the global population does that group actually represent, out of nearly 8 billion people?

Sure, maybe a few folks living in the Arctic might still rely on seal blubber for cooking or warmth, but the vast majority of the world depends on energy and fuel derived primarily from oil and gas...

Do you actually grasp that because this business is cartelized, oil becomes a zero-sum game?
If someone buys from you because you’re offering a discount, they aren't buying from me anymore. What do you think happens at that exact moment?

brightheron64 said:I was simply pointing out a fundamental cause and its inevitable fallout, using Pakistan as an example.

What truly caught me off guard—and frankly, left me a bit stunned—was the decision made by OPEC. Despite all this global rhetoric about goodwill and a general consensus regarding the need to pressure Russia... they seem set to ensure that even with a 30 percent "discount," the Russians will still be raking in massive amounts of cash, even with their reduced output.

The fastest way to actually cripple the Russians would be to drive the agreed-upon oil price down to $60, but we aren't likely to see that scenario play out. Without that shift, the Russians will eventually bump their production back up, because let's face it, many players on "the other side" have zero interest in paying premium prices indefinitely for something they could realistically acquire at a 30% discount.

But just how much of the global population does that group actually represent, out of nearly 8 billion people?

Sure, maybe a few folks living in the Arctic might still rely on seal blubber for cooking or warmth, but the vast majority of the world depends on energy and fuel derived primarily from oil and gas...

Just let the Saudi Arabians be. Americans know exactly where they stand with them; it's just not going to be an easy or fast fix. We'll have to be patient.
"Raking in massive amounts of cash" is a relative term, but like I said before, you're overcomplicating things. The whole point is to squeeze that money down as much as humanly possible. So far, the plan is working. Their budget deficit is already massive. It’s been stated countless times: sanctions take time to bite. Russia doesn't have that luxury, but the West does.

Jesse Hughes6 said:Do you actually grasp that because this business is cartelized, oil becomes a zero-sum game?
If someone buys from you because you’re offering a discount, they aren't buying from me anymore. What do you think happens at that exact moment?

Just let the Saudi Arabians be. Americans know exactly where they stand with them; it's just not going to be an easy or fast fix. We'll have to be patient.
"Raking in massive amounts of cash" is a relative term, but like I said before, you're overcomplicating things. The whole point is to squeeze that money down as much as humanly possible. So far, the plan is working. Their budget deficit is already massive. It’s been stated countless times: sanctions take time to bite. Russia doesn't have that luxury, but the West does.

I mean, I wouldn't even be shocked if Putin just suddenly pulled out of Ukraine and announced that all those demilitarization and denazification goals were met.

Melissa Rivera5 said:More importantly though, I guess... how much economic exchange and actual leverage do they really have with Russia?

If they had any say in the matter, the Russians would likely prefer dealing with sanctions from places like Indonesia or Bangladesh rather than facing the heavy hand of Taiwan or Belgium.

Jesse Hughes6 said:Do you actually grasp that because this business is cartelized, oil becomes a zero-sum game?
If someone buys from you because you’re offering a discount, they aren't buying from me anymore. What do you think happens at that exact moment?

Just let the Saudi Arabians be. Americans know exactly where they stand with them; it's just not going to be an easy or fast fix. We'll have to be patient.
"Raking in massive amounts of cash" is a relative term, but like I said before, you're overcomplicating things. The whole point is to squeeze that money down as much as humanly possible. So far, the plan is working. Their budget deficit is already massive. It’s been stated countless times: sanctions take time to bite. Russia doesn't have that luxury, but the West does.

It’s actually happening quite rapidly.
Congress gave the Saudi Arabians some breathing room to stabilize, but the message was crystal clear: cut production, or lose our protection and be left at the mercy of Iran.

Even now, we're seeing statements coming out of the US suggesting production might drop purely because they're anticipating a dip in demand.
In just a week or two, we can expect them to claim their forecasts were off and pretend everything is returning to business as usual.

Anthony Hill5 said:If we fall into a recession, demand for oil will plummet, and consequently, oil prices will drop right along with it. It really is that simple.

Building upon my previous observations, we are witnessing exactly what was predicted.

Oil prices have plummeted significantly

On global markets, oil prices fell sharply last week as traders grew increasingly anxious over heightened recessionary risks across various economies, which could trigger a weakening demand for 'black gold.' On the London market, the price per barrel dropped by 6.4 percent last week to $91.63, while on the American market, the barrel saw a 7.6 percent decrease to $85.60.

Following a surge of over 10 percent just a week prior, oil prices tumbled last week because of growing concerns regarding a potential global recession that would lead to diminished oil demand.

Putin will be forced to pick up the phone and call the Prince of Saudi Arabia once again to demand further production cuts; otherwise, he will find himself selling barrels of Ural at discount prices for the cost of a bag of beans.

Anthony Hill5 said:Building upon my previous observations, we are witnessing exactly what was predicted.

Oil prices have plummeted significantly

On global markets, oil prices fell sharply last week as traders grew increasingly anxious over heightened recessionary risks across various economies, which could trigger a weakening demand for 'black gold.' On the London market, the price per barrel dropped by 6.4 percent last week to $91.63, while on the American market, the barrel saw a 7.6 percent decrease to $85.60.

Following a surge of over 10 percent just a week prior, oil prices tumbled last week because of growing concerns regarding a potential global recession that would lead to diminished oil demand.

Putin will be forced to pick up the phone and call the Prince of Saudi Arabia once again to demand further production cuts; otherwise, he will find himself selling barrels of Ural at discount prices for the cost of a bag of beans.

The Saudi prince has been getting plenty of heat from the West over those recent moves.
I'm not entirely sure they'll jump to repeat that move so quickly, unless, I guess, oil prices truly go into a total freefall.

Even Saudi Arabia is finally ready for a taste of democracy. I suppose they’ll be hanging up on the President next.

Anthony Hill5 said:Building upon my previous observations, we are witnessing exactly what was predicted.

Oil prices have plummeted significantly

On global markets, oil prices fell sharply last week as traders grew increasingly anxious over heightened recessionary risks across various economies, which could trigger a weakening demand for 'black gold.' On the London market, the price per barrel dropped by 6.4 percent last week to $91.63, while on the American market, the barrel saw a 7.6 percent decrease to $85.60.

Following a surge of over 10 percent just a week prior, oil prices tumbled last week because of growing concerns regarding a potential global recession that would lead to diminished oil demand.

Putin will be forced to pick up the phone and call the Prince of Saudi Arabia once again to demand further production cuts; otherwise, he will find himself selling barrels of Ural at discount prices for the cost of a bag of beans.

Given the record-breaking profits Aramac has seen, I suspect they'll hold off on any significant production cuts until oil hits a truly ridiculous price level.

Jesse Hughes6 said:Do you actually grasp that because this business is cartelized, oil becomes a zero-sum game?
If someone buys from you because you’re offering a discount, they aren't buying from me anymore. What do you think happens at that exact moment?

Just let the Saudi Arabians be. Americans know exactly where they stand with them; it's just not going to be an easy or fast fix. We'll have to be patient.
"Raking in massive amounts of cash" is a relative term, but like I said before, you're overcomplicating things. The whole point is to squeeze that money down as much as humanly possible. So far, the plan is working. Their budget deficit is already massive. It’s been stated countless times: sanctions take time to bite. Russia doesn't have that luxury, but the West does.

There's also the fact that Putin might end up making the same amount of money, or maybe even less, if the West hadn't slapped those oil sanctions on him in the first place, because market prices would have been way lower. That move by OPEC is basically a direct reaction to the sanctions on Russian oil. Honestly, without those sanctions, OPEC probably wouldn't have been able to get everyone to agree on cutting production.

The only energy-related sanctions that actually do anything for the Ukrainian people are extreme taxes on fossil fuel consumption. You've gotta stop lying to yourself thinking this current approach is doing much good. It's just not.

rustywalker82 said:There's also the fact that Putin might end up making the same amount of money, or maybe even less, if the West hadn't slapped those oil sanctions on him in the first place, because market prices would have been way lower. That move by OPEC is basically a direct reaction to the sanctions on Russian oil. Honestly, without those sanctions, OPEC probably wouldn't have been able to get everyone to agree on cutting production.

The only energy-related sanctions that actually do anything for the Ukrainian people are extreme taxes on fossil fuel consumption. You've gotta stop lying to yourself thinking this current approach is doing much good. It's just not.

Hmm, I wonder if it’s possible that this production cut is actually a Russian reduction in disguise—basically them being unable to offload their supply—which is then being framed or fed to us as an OPEC+ decision just to manipulate the market prices.

I don't know. They definitely move the needle on the market, though I haven't really dug into whether they've been caught pulling fast ones before.
When sanctions cut out a chunk of Russian oil from the mix, they probably don't even need to cheat. It’s easy for them to just get everyone to agree to tiny little production cuts, and naturally, prices spike way faster than any actual drop in supply.

George Robinson43 said:Given the record-breaking profits Aramac has seen, I suspect they'll hold off on any significant production cuts until oil hits a truly ridiculous price level.

Just wait until we see what happens to those Saudi profits once the mid-terms roll around and the US finishes dumping its strategic reserves—pure market manipulation, really.

wiredseal7 said:Just wait until we see what happens to those Saudi profits once the mid-terms roll around and the US finishes dumping its strategic reserves—pure market manipulation, really.

The poor cartel is being manipulated by the market. Poor little guys.

It’s pretty wild how gas prices today are basically sitting right where they were before the invasion started.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/eu-natural-gas

Oil is actually trading a bit lower than it was pre-invasion, too.
https://tradingeconomics.com/commodity/crude-oil

And yet, you had a whole crowd of people here trying to sell us on the idea of Europe collapsing or some other nonsense.😁

https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...s-oecd-predict

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