Sanctions on Russia

You mean Nickel.

Given how much you clearly know about Nickel, I suppose I have no choice but to take your word for it.

Besides, all this complaining is pretty much pointless anyway.

If Europe ends up broke, it was inevitable. A mad dictator with a massive nuclear arsenal who enslaved his own people has finally crossed his borders and onto a European nation.

There is no Plan B.

boldtiger7 said:Initially, we are going to face significant hurdles and price hikes across various sectors. However, over a more extended period, the market will inevitably regulate itself and recover, discovering alternative methods and supply chains to compensate for current shortages. While prices may stabilize at a slightly higher baseline than we are used to, they shouldn't remain at these extreme levels indefinitely.

Look, there will be a period of hardship where we simply have to endure and adapt, but in the long run, the market will correct its course and restore equilibrium.

Price hikes were already happening before this war even started—partly because of the corona mess and partly because shipping routes got wrecked, leaving freight companies struggling to move stuff. Throw in the skyrocketing fuel costs, and you see why everything is getting more expensive.
Just look at what happened to steel, aluminum, or basically any construction material over the last 18 months and you'll get it. Wood prices went through the roof!

And now, on top of all that, you've got a war and major exporters being blocked from sending raw materials. It's just a massive accelerator for inflation—you can see it clearly with Nickel. I'm convinced we're heading into a recession regardless of whether the war ends tomorrow or everything just resets to some weird new "normal."

Larry Fox5 said:I don't even follow him—just stumbled onto this news because they always seem to have the fastest updates coming out of Ukraine. Honestly, I don't know much about the micro-level stuff and maybe there really is a shortage happening around here in Baden... but I bet there are plenty of cities in Germany dealing with it too. That link you sent shows people over in Potsdam scouring different stores and coming up empty-handed...

Look, the point is—it wouldn't even surprise me if we start seeing shortages of certain goods during this crisis, or if they just become way too expensive to buy... I mean, look at the price of Nickel—it’s shot up from $28,000 to $64,000 since the war started...
Just imagine—every single industry that relies on this stuff to even function. It’s a total nightmare...

Most potential shortages or price hikes are actually products of speculation rather than a genuine lack of supply.
Energy supplies are sufficient, but speculators are betting on future supply chain disruptions, which is why prices are spiraling out of control.
It isn't a question of whether the market will stabilize, but rather exactly *when* that will happen.

On the other hand, due to the sanctions against Russia, they are going to face shortages that will escalate into a total market vacuum (mostly regarding imported goods), which will then cripple their ability to manufacture "domestic" products...

The real crux of the matter is how the rest of the world will compensate for the loss of goods from Russia (whose variety is already quite limited), while the Russians themselves will struggle far more to maintain a functional economy... because they are going to be missing almost everything.

Best,

Larry Fox5 said:Look, we’re just throwing out guesses here—you can’t predict this stuff without a crystal ball. All these sanctions being slapped on Russia are going to hit the West too, no question. It’s hard to say exactly how bad, but here in the US, they're already forecasting inflation north of 8% this year. Wheat prices are skyrocketing, and we're looking at massive shortages...
I don't know how much you guys actually realize, but even in places like Germany, you can barely find sunflower oil in stores right now—people are paying over $10 a liter on eBay! Seriously, go check it yourself if you don't believe me.
And don't even get me started on oil and gas. Diesel in Western Europe is hitting $2.50/L, and electricity and heating costs have absolutely exploded. This is going to bleed into every other sector because higher transport costs automatically drive up everything else. Families will have way less cash for vacations, so the tourism industry is going to take a massive hit too.

It’s just a vicious cycle that leads straight back to recession, business bankruptcies, unemployment spikes...

Stop being naive and thinking these sanctions are only hitting Russia.

Larry Fox5 said:I don't even follow him—just stumbled onto this news because they always seem to have the fastest updates coming out of Ukraine. Honestly, I don't know much about the micro-level stuff and maybe there really is a shortage happening around here in Baden... but I bet there are plenty of cities in Germany dealing with it too. That link you sent shows people over in Potsdam scouring different stores and coming up empty-handed...

Look, the point is—it wouldn't even surprise me if we start seeing shortages of certain goods during this crisis, or if they just become way too expensive to buy... I mean, look at the price of Nickel—it’s shot up from $28,000 to $64,000 since the war started...
Just imagine—every single industry that relies on this stuff to even function. It’s a total nightmare...

😬

You can find just about anything on eBay—including Russian military rations that haven't even hit their expiration date yet.

Larry Fox5 said:Price hikes were already happening before this war even started—partly because of the corona mess and partly because shipping routes got wrecked, leaving freight companies struggling to move stuff. Throw in the skyrocketing fuel costs, and you see why everything is getting more expensive.
Just look at what happened to steel, aluminum, or basically any construction material over the last 18 months and you'll get it. Wood prices went through the roof!

And now, on top of all that, you've got a war and major exporters being blocked from sending raw materials. It's just a massive accelerator for inflation—you can see it clearly with Nickel. I'm convinced we're heading into a recession regardless of whether the war ends tomorrow or everything just resets to some weird new "normal."

If Germany runs out of oil, then you should start worrying about Russia and the Third World instead. Seriously, the oil in Germany will vanish.😵 COVID actually helped settle the fears caused by this kind of propaganda, if nothing else.

analogbear5 said:You can find just about anything on eBay—including Russian military rations that haven't even hit their expiration date yet.

Now we're all just sitting here waiting for Igor to list his 9K330 TOR system online.

If both Germans and Russians see their standard of living tank by 50%, I mean, who do you think is going to go hungry first?

Kyle Nelson2 said:If both Germans and Russians see their standard of living tank by 50%, I mean, who do you think is going to go hungry first?

There’s no way Germany loses 50% of its standard before Russia loses 75%.☕

"Russia threatens to settle foreign debt using rubles"
Russia is threatening to pay off its external debt in rubles.
- Wall Street Journal

I’m going to tell my bank I’ll be paying back my loan one tiny crumb at a time.

analogbear5 said:"Russia threatens to settle foreign debt using rubles"
Russia is threatening to pay off its external debt in rubles.
- Wall Street Journal

Every single loan is essentially a gamble—a high-stakes investment, if you will. If the debtor can't come up with the cash, the lender is simply out of luck! Is anyone actually surprised? It’s the oldest story in the book, and frankly, nothing about this situation is news to anyone with half a brain.

Since this aggression kicked off, the dollar has plummeted by nearly 50%. You can bet the Russ would be absolutely thrilled if things stayed exactly this way.
Lp

MechaLiver said:Basically, the Russians expect the ruble to tank even further.

That’s a luxury you can't claim for the pocket change in your wallet.

So they can't cover their debts, which makes their currency just as worthless as my spare change.

That's what we call bankruptcy.

Amanda Allen4 said:Every single loan is essentially a gamble—a high-stakes investment, if you will. If the debtor can't come up with the cash, the lender is simply out of luck! Is anyone actually surprised? It’s the oldest story in the book, and frankly, nothing about this situation is news to anyone with half a brain.

But you want to know what's actually catastrophic? What’s truly dangerous? It's when nobody will even look you in the eye to lend you a dime because you burned your reputation by failing to pay back previous debts.
That's the kind of rhetoric Russia would love to pick up and run with.
Best,

Dennis Price said:If Germany runs out of oil, then you should start worrying about Russia and the Third World instead. Seriously, the oil in Germany will vanish.😵 COVID actually helped settle the fears caused by this kind of propaganda, if nothing else.

The oil hasn't disappeared. What happened is that demand for the cheapest fuel at certain gas stations spiked suddenly. Basically, people started pouring the budget stuff into their old diesels (1, 2, 3)

If a station has 400 liters in stock and five customers show up to fill up, you’re out of oil. People who love to resell noticed this, so they started buying up entire pallets. That's why some stores are out of the cheapest option—it’s a sudden spike that can't be easily offset.

However, the oil that's just a few cents more expensive is still available everywhere in abundance.

By the way, I’m not seeing this problem with the cheap stuff in my town either.

Which nation does Xiaomi, Tencent, or Alibaba belong to? Or Shell, Apple, and Alphabet? Which nation actually owns any major public or private corporation?

People in this thread are arguing as if most companies in the world are state-owned and only operate in a handful of countries. They're forgetting we live in a world of corporations that do business almost everywhere (except for those few places living in isolation).

So, you're telling me cars actually run on that stuff? How's it treating you, though... does that old beast still have some pull🤦?

An oligarch just reached out after the Italians seized his €530m mega-yacht

"We urgently need to stop the war; we need peace," he said.

hollowdriver13 said:An oligarch just reached out after the Italians seized his €530m mega-yacht

"We urgently need to stop the war; we need peace," he said.

Oh man, now Putin is going to hate him even more than before...

Just looking at those 10 companies that pulled out of Russia (out of about 330 total), you've got over 125,000 people left without jobs. But hey, I guess Šešelj said yesterday that the Russians just nationalized everything anyway, so there's really nothing to worry about. 😁