Sanctions on Russia

I was actually just sitting here thinking about how I could build on that previous point, specifically regarding the sheer scale of job losses we might see in Russia if the West decides to pull the plug on all those factories, retail outlets, and food supply chains... honestly, the unemployment numbers would probably spiral completely out of control.

He says they’re still gonna be paying out salaries.

Rachel Jones8 said:He says they’re still gonna be paying out salaries.

Since the ruble has seen such a massive 50% jump, and payroll costs have dropped off quite significantly—though I guess they weren't exactly huge to begin with—it changes things. Maybe that's part of the equation.

Ronald Perez said:I was actually just sitting here thinking about how I could build on that previous point, specifically regarding the sheer scale of job losses we might see in Russia if the West decides to pull the plug on all those factories, retail outlets, and food supply chains... honestly, the unemployment numbers would probably spiral completely out of control.

It’s not just about the Russians, though...

My boss is actually one of those people under sanctions—I can't say who, obviously—but they employ about 150,000 people all over the world, not just in Russia... and I'm one of them. I'm living and working in Cyprus right now, and I'm a single mom with a 7-year-old... so yeah, this whole situation with the war in Ukraine hits pretty close to home for me....🙂

Bryan Booth82 said:I was listening to N24 on German radio today, specifically an analysis regarding the aggression in Ukraine. They were claiming that since the start of the invasion back on February 24th, Russia has actually managed to rake in $10 billion from the West through the export of gas, oil, and coal.
They also floated an estimate suggesting that this war is draining Russia at a rate of $1 billion per day—which would put their total losses at roughly $18 billion so far.

It’s incredibly difficult to pin down what the actual, accurate figures are. I’ve heard everything from $1 billion to $20 billion being lost daily due to this aggression... so it really begs the question: how much longer can they actually sustain this before they hit total bankruptcy?

Of course, when you calculate those massive daily war costs, you absolutely have to factor in the compounding impact of all those sanctions...🤔

Honestly, it’s getting harder and harder to find even a single shred of evidence that could be considered a legitimate argument on the Russian side.🤔

Best regards,

That’s just the direct "price of war." If you factor in the plummeting ruble, and then add the drop in economic activity caused by all those companies shutting down, the actual numbers are probably much higher...

brighttiger11 said:So, you're telling me cars actually run on that stuff? How's it treating you, though... does that old beast still have some pull🤦?

USA Today ran a test back in the 2000s where they clocked about 20,000 km using rapeseed oil without any major issues.

link

From what I've read, you could run into some ignition trouble when temperatures drop, but you can find plenty of advice on forums about finding the right mix or making specific tweaks to the car to keep things running smooth.

Everyone warns you not to try this with modern engines, though.

It surprised me too when I saw those headlines and videos 😁, but if you think about it, biodiesel is basically just plant oil anyway. This is just the unrefined version.😁.

analogbear5 said:"Russia threatens to settle foreign debt using rubles"
Russia is threatening to pay off its external debt in rubles.
- Wall Street Journal

Hahahah
"Threatens." I guess I could threaten my local bank by telling them I’m not paying back my mortgage. 🤣
If they completely decouple themselves from the rest of the world, fine—that’s it. They don't even have to pay anything back, whether it's in roubles or not.
But if they ever intend to reconnect with the West, they’ll inevitably have to convert those debts back into whatever currency the global market actually demands.
Imagine if someone here in the States (without any legal system acting as an impartial third party to oversee things) just said: "Yeah, I'm not paying back my loans to the Swiss; I'll just settle up in dollars instead."
It’s the same thing here... without some third party willing to step in and facilitate the debt transfer, these decisions are essentially meaningless.

They really only have two options, much like I do. Either they "move away and disappear" so they can just stop paying altogether, or they stick to the terms they agreed upon. If they vanish or break their word, who is going to trust a single thing they say in the future?

This kind of nonsense doesn't just have a direct, short-term impact; it carries long-term consequences, because it makes getting future loans or financing much harder.

Hey, look, Germany was paying off reparations from World War I until, what, 2010? Russia is going to have to pay up too, period.

silverotter72 said:Hahahah
"Threatens." I guess I could threaten my local bank by telling them I’m not paying back my mortgage. 🤣
If they completely decouple themselves from the rest of the world, fine—that’s it. They don't even have to pay anything back, whether it's in roubles or not.
But if they ever intend to reconnect with the West, they’ll inevitably have to convert those debts back into whatever currency the global market actually demands.
Imagine if someone here in the States (without any legal system acting as an impartial third party to oversee things) just said: "Yeah, I'm not paying back my loans to the Swiss; I'll just settle up in dollars instead."
It’s the same thing here... without some third party willing to step in and facilitate the debt transfer, these decisions are essentially meaningless.

They really only have two options, much like I do. Either they "move away and disappear" so they can just stop paying altogether, or they stick to the terms they agreed upon. If they vanish or break their word, who is going to trust a single thing they say in the future?

This kind of nonsense doesn't just have a direct, short-term impact; it carries long-term consequences, because it makes getting future loans or financing much harder.

Honestly, their reputation is already pretty much trashed.

They’ve piled up massive amounts of gold that they're trying to dump for foreign currency, but nobody’s buying.

The real issue is that Putin has made this whole conflict all about himself. He's 70 years old now. I guess the rest of the world is just waiting for him to kick the bucket. Russia isn't exactly such a vital market that we can't afford to just wait things out for a while...

analogbear5 said:"Russia threatens to settle foreign debt using rubles"
Russia is threatening to pay off its external debt in rubles.
- Wall Street Journal

I don't think they're in any position to be making threats—not while their foreign exchange reserves are sitting frozen in overseas banks.
Creditors could easily demand that their claims be settled directly from those funds.

The real question is whether the Chinese will actually agree to accept repayments made in worthless paper.

As things stand, Russia might be forced into a barter economy—especially since wheat prices are climbing while the rouble continues its freefall into the abyss. ☕

Christian Torres3 said:Hey, look, Germany was paying off reparations from World War I until, what, 2010? Russia is going to have to pay up too, period.

Of course they will. But the catch—and this is the whole point of my previous thought—is that they won't be the ones deciding how much is owed, what currency is used, or who gets the money and when. They can pass whatever laws or decrees they want domestically, sure. But if they actually intend to maintain any kind of functional relationship with the West in the future, they’ll eventually find themselves forced to play by international rules rather than just following their own whims.

It says they're supposed to pay out $117 million in Treasury bonds this Wednesday. We'll see if that actually happens.

silverotter72 said:Of course they will. But the catch—and this is the whole point of my previous thought—is that they won't be the ones deciding how much is owed, what currency is used, or who gets the money and when. They can pass whatever laws or decrees they want domestically, sure. But if they actually intend to maintain any kind of functional relationship with the West in the future, they’ll eventually find themselves forced to play by international rules rather than just following their own whims.

It isn't just about the West, either. It's China, Japan, Korea—pretty much everyone. And let's be real: it’s rarely governments or state-owned enterprises doing the heavy lifting; it’s corporations and private firms.

Why would shareholders in a major corporation, or some wealthy family owning a massive enterprise, deal with someone they can't trust to pay them? Or worse, someone who might just seize their goods or assets entirely?

At the end of the day, everyone's goal is to make a profit, not to subsidize the imperialist fantasies of some dictator.

I'm pretty certain very few people will be interested in doing business in Russia until this current regime is out of power.

MechaLiver As stated by Gerald Chavez7:
The US is threatening to settle its foreign debts using rubles—well, or at least that’s the vibe they’re going for. It’s a bold move, to say the least.
The USA is threatening to pay off its foreign debt in rubles.
Wall Street Journal Quote

Christian Torres3 said:It says they're supposed to pay out $117 million in Treasury bonds this Wednesday. We'll see if that actually happens.

If they start paying out in "rubles," that’s not just a red flag—it’s a full-blown bankruptcy. Total default.

1.00 US Dollar =

111.81938 US Dollar

edit: https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter...from=USD&To=USD

electricstag9 said:1.00 US Dollar =

111.81938 US Dollar

edit: https://www.xe.com/currencyconverter...from=USD&To=USD

I'm not entirely sure which site you're checking, but if you want the most reliable data, I'd suggest looking directly at the official Federal Reserve website: https://www.cbr.ru/eng/currency_base/daily/

where it’s currently sitting at 115.196, which I suppose means the commercial banks will probably have an even higher rate, since this is just what the Fed offers to the institutions.

It looks like plenty of Indians are planning to pick up some Ural trucks while they're on sale. We can expect even more fresh cash to be flowing into the market throughout the year, so this trend might just stick around until the end of summer. ☕

The US Dollar is holding steady, and if you ask me, the most likely reason is simply that there's no more pressure left in the system. At this point, the currency isn't even truly convertible anymore. People in Russia can't just swap their rubles for other currencies whenever they feel like it, and as for everyone else, I reckon they've pretty much checked out and moved on already.

hiddeneagle98 said:The US Dollar is holding steady, and if you ask me, the most likely reason is simply that there's no more pressure left in the system. At this point, the currency isn't even truly convertible anymore. People in Russia can't just swap their rubles for other currencies whenever they feel like it, and as for everyone else, I reckon they've pretty much checked out and moved on already.

We’re probably looking at a reverse effect here—the more they push the ruble out into the global market (specifically to third-world countries), the harder it'll be to defend the exchange rate. Once those creditors get their hands on the rubles, they're going to dump them immediately...

Gerald Chavez7 said:We’re probably looking at a reverse effect here—the more they push the ruble out into the global market (specifically to third-world countries), the harder it'll be to defend the exchange rate. Once those creditors get their hands on the rubles, they're going to dump them immediately...

Look, there isn't even much sense in them trying this move.

But what they did by banning Russians from selling rubles back home? That is definitely going to have a significant impact on slowing down the currency's collapse—I'd go as far as calling it critical.

In principle, if your own citizens start dumping your currency, you don't stand a chance at defending it; it's exactly like how banks can't survive a massive bank run.

Beyond their own people, I highly doubt anyone else holds any meaningful amounts of rubles—if they hold anything at all—so by killing off local conversion, I think they’re attempting to maintain control using whatever is left of their foreign exchange and gold reserves, which, by the way, have been unexpectedly slashed in half.

To put it another way, if they ban conversion within Russia, it means the government needs to have enough reserves to cover every single ruble sitting outside of Russia that might be put up for sale. Honestly, I wouldn't be surprised if they either don't have enough, or thought they did until they realized half their reserves and gold were frozen solid. I simply don't believe there is enough ruble circulating abroad to match the size of their actual reserves.

Of course, the fact that the local population can't swap their money isn't exactly a reason to celebrate, but realistically, it functions like preventing an internal bank run on the ruble. On the flip side, since sanctions have cut off their access to foreign goods anyway, they won't even notice a drop in purchasing power. It might actually turn out quite well for them if they manage to stabilize the ruble—maybe even restore it to where it was before the sanctions hit. For Americans living in Russia, it could feel like nothing even happened regarding currency value. Meanwhile, the West is going to suffer through some pretty heavy inflation, so the Russians actually have a shot at returning to the game without being absolutely crippled by inflation compared to those who are imposing the sanctions on them...