Anthony Hill5 said:Let us be realistic: neither the Chinese nor the Indian currency holds even a shred of significance on the global stage.
]And how can one possibly claim to know this with such certainty? Is it not entirely plausible that the state will step in with massive subsidies just to maintain a substantial portion of domestic production? Furthermore, they will likely benefit from cheap fertilizer, a luxury that many other nations currently find themselves questioning.
If that fails to happen—especially considering that Ukraine is such a massive grain producer—we are looking at global repercussions. It is widely suggested that the developing world will bear the brunt of this instability.
Just the other day, wheat futures doubled in price, which serves as a glaring indicator that shortages are imminent.
Fortunately, the US produces far more than it consumes.
The reason is quite simple: Russian agriculture is fundamentally dependent on American technology for planting specific types of grains. This specialized tech is produced exclusively in the USA. I have pointed this out before, but consider this: interest rates for agricultural loans have surged from 12% to over 20%. Who, I ask you, can possibly remain operational under such punishing conditions?
Even their petroleum industry relies heavily on technology and chemicals imported directly from America. We saw BP and Shell withdraw, and since ExxonMobil exited Arctic drilling ages ago, we can only watch to see how much progress Russia actually makes in those regions.
The automotive industry is also retreating from Russia. One must wonder: how many tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs will vanish solely within that sector? Shipping companies have ceased transporting cargo toward Russia, and the list goes on. Not to mention the inevitable collapse of the ruble, which will drastically diminish their ability to afford even the meager imports arriving from China and elsewhere.
What Putin has orchestrated is nothing short of a monumental blunder; he has weakened Russia to an indescribable degree, leaving them in a position of total subordination—effectively a vassal state—to China in the very near future.
The illusion of the "great leader" who restored Russia to the status of a global superpower will vanish, leaving behind nothing but a carcass caught in the claws of China.
India and especially China hold massive chunks of the global market. Then you’ve got the Belt and Road Initiative—everyone’s going to be pushing for more trade settled in yuan. If the Chinese actually have any sense, they'll make that their top priority.
Russian agriculture relies entirely on American tech to plant their specific grain varieties—stuff you can only get here in the States. I’ve mentioned this before, but farm loan interest rates have already spiked from 12% to over 20%. Honestly, who can even stay afloat under those kinds of conditions?
I'm not exactly in the loop, but isn't planting season starting up around now? Spring is practically knocking on the door—that seed could already be halfway to Russia by now. At least for this season.
The oil industry is also tethered to the tech and chemicals they have to import from the States. BP and Shell pulled out too—ExxonMobil exited Arctic drilling ages ago, so we're left watching how the Russians manage to push forward there.
To what extent?
It’s all about the long game. Honestly, I expected better preparation here—given that the US has been cooking up ways to hit the oil sector for ages now.
The auto industry is pulling out of Russia—just how many tens or hundreds of thousands of jobs are going to vanish from that sector alone? Shipping companies have stopped hauling cargo there, too. Not to mention the ruble cratering, which is going to make it impossible for them to afford even the tiny amount of imports they try to pull from China or elsewhere.
I agree—the auto industry is going to take a massive hit here. It’s mostly about the unemployment spike. Factories are just going to sit there empty because without parts, you've got nothing—and trying to pivot production to different models takes forever. Honestly, the only ones who might pull this off are the Chinese; they're basically pros at pivoting and copying whatever works.
Shipping via sea is turning into a gold mine—honestly, it might actually pay to set up a small, "sanction-dodging" fleet just for this kind of thing. Plus, the railroads won't be sitting around waiting for work either.
What Vladimir Putin has done is a total madness move—he’s crippled Russia to such an extent that they're basically becoming a vassal state to China.
The dream of some great leader restoring Russia to its former glory? It’ll end up being nothing more than a carcass caught in China's teeth.
The initial shock is brutal—honestly, they should have just pulled a disappearing act early on. It would’ve been better for all the foreign investors too; at least then they might have saved their massive stakes instead of watching them go down the drain.
The whole point is clearly to rattle Vladimir Putin as much as possible and stir up some internal chaos. That’s why they were running around coordinating with Japan and Korea—trying to make this "shock therapy" hit harder and catch the Russians off guard. But honestly, the entire plan is a gamble; we could easily end up staring down a Cold War 2.0, just a different flavor of isolationism—at least regarding Russia this time around.
Geopolitically, this is huge—it’s basically a wake-up call for China, signaling that the world is shifting toward financial fragmentation. They need to distance themselves from the dollar and the euro as much as possible. It’s not a matter of if this happens to them, but rather when.
By the way, word is an agreement with Iran might be signed within the next few days:
https://www.zerohedge.com/energy/oil...-next-72-hours