Posts by wiredseal7

silverotter72 said:I mean, if someone were actually paying me to reach an incredibly flawed conclusion, I doubt I'd stumble onto this one quite so easily...

Go ahead—give me your take on it.
Sure, things are getting tight—but looking at how everyone else dodged US sanctions (like when Venezuela pulls petrochemical supplies from Iran), the Russians will eventually find their own side streets to navigate.

Rebecca Roberts2 said:How much of their reserves have they burned through so far just to prop up the ruble?
And where can I actually track those numbers? 😁

Sure, sounds about right—some Frenchman who promised an economic war claims they’re melting like snow, but he didn't actually bring any numbers to the table.
They’re keeping those long-term frozen assets—it looks like the West is just planning to treat them as war booty.

Carl Lee27 said:I’m personally rooting for the Iranians to successfully pass on all their technical know-how and expertise, because I truly hope the Russian fleets can eventually reach the same levels of safety, reliability, and uptime that the Iranian fleets enjoy. I mean, Delta Air Lines would certainly be more than welcome—well, wherever they're actually allowed to fly—once they have to swap out all that original Boeing, Airbus, CFM International, GE, Rolls-Royce, and Pratt & Whitney parts and service for some "trust us, we promise" substitutes made from mystery parts that God only knows where they came from.

Besides, it feels like just another sign of the USSR making a comeback: Delta Air Lines basically holds almost every infamous aviation record in the book, and they haven't even been doing it for the last 30 years.

I'm saying this because they've dealt with this before—it doesn't mean the Iranians will magically make the parts work (using who knows what kind of scrap), but they might help them set up their own replacement production lines faster.

Anyway, regarding the MC-21:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irkut_MC-21
By January 2019, Russia have interrupted The supply of foreign raw materials, on which the UAC relied to produce composite parts. The UAC started looking for either domestically produced or Chinese replacements, maintaining that the wing box and consoles would still consist of polymeric composites. By then, a metal wing was "no longer on the agenda" according to NASA.[58] In March 2019, AeroComposit reported that it had produced the first fuselage centre section and wing box from domestic materials.[59]

Just another case where Putin isn't lying about how much these sanctions are hitting them regardless.

Henry Lopez10 said:They'll take him down like a sitting duck.
Sooner or later.
You can try anything else, just don't mess with my money.

The current situation is genuinely unbearable, and as weird as it sounds given the horror unfolding in Ukraine, the ones suffering the most damage from this war are actually the Russians. Long-term damage.
Economic fallout that you can't even put a number on.
It grows every single day.
What were they thinking? Putin and his crew? Now they're exactly where the West wanted them: isolated from the rest of the world. He’s basically playing right into their hands. 😵
Russia isn't going to annex Ukraine or walk away with the whole country anyway.
Instead, they're just self-destructing on so many different levels.

I suspect they were bracing for some diplomatic rebukes from the West, but certainly not sanctions this heavy or walls built this high.
I really believe they're in total shock over how the entire international community reacted.

The Russian military has already lost the war, Putin has lost the war, Russia has lost the war... they just refuse to admit it.

Some might say the (Western) world just got rid of an economic competitor the size of Italy or Spain. 😬
A powerhouse that trades massive amounts of raw materials—oil, gas, grain, metals, rare earth elements, fertilizer, etc. The total ripple effect ends up being even bigger than the direct damage to the Russian economy.

That's why they haven't included everything—they kept the essentials out.
It's a lose-lose scenario for everyone except China, unless the economic pressure actually manages to shake or unseat Putin. On his end, he's got the battle in Mariupol to boost morale for the troops and the people during these tough times, and linking up with Transnistria could serve as decent PR—assuming they remember to throw a party when they finally unite.

Gerald Chavez7 said:View on twitter

Even Boeing is out.

Sure, they can fly using nothing but sheer improvisation. We already saw how that goes back in the 90s—a few major crashes every single year.

...Anyway, I'm sure an Aeroflot pilot certified for a Boeing 787 will just happily stick around Russia to fly for pennies. The brain drain is only going to accelerate (and those older Soviet-era engineers, scientists, and pilots are long gone anyway)...

Hard to find a better reason for why these sanctions are bad and who they'll actually hit.
Though, they probably won't affect Iranians much either. They'll likely be the ones lending a hand to the Russians, given their experience with reverse-engineering aviation.

With a few civil aircraft development projects already underway in China and Russia (like the joint C929), this is going to be a massive tailwind for them.
I'm not sure how much they rely on Europe, but the Americans have been sanctioning them since the Trump era because they see them as competition.

Gerald Chavez7 said:https://twitter.com/ForexLive/status...87748291002374

Boeing is essentially cutting off the supply line for spare parts.

Aeroflot’s fleet consists of 187 aircraft—and 177 of those are Boeings or Airbuses, which is about 94.6% of their lineup. They only have 10 Sukhoi-100s to show for it. The problem? Not a single domestic plane they currently own—or even have planned—is actually capable of handling long-haul flights.

Give it a few months, and those direct routes from Washington, D.C. to Vladivostok are going to vanish—unless they decide to start cannibalizing their own planes just to keep things moving.

The Iranians figured out how to patch them up. Honestly, the Russians won't have to worry about Western safety standards much longer anyway.

I'm reading that Americans might ban them from flying altogether soon. About time—maybe finally force them to touch down in Anchorage.

restlessscout5 said:Apple is pulling its business out of Russia as well—now, if all the other major tech players decide to follow suit... Russia is headed straight toward total technological isolation.

Consumer electronics? That’s a different story—they won't stay isolated. I mean, what's stopping someone from opening a shop in China, buying a whole container of phones, and just shipping them over on a train?

Carl Lee27 said:It looks like the Russian Ambassador to Poland is probably about to be declared persona non grata. From what I’m hearing, Poland is moving to completely sever diplomatic ties with Russia.

https://forsal.pl/swiat/rosja/artyku...h-krokach.html

It’s funny—back in the 1900s, the USSR was waving the red flag at the West, but now the EU is basically waving it toward the East. They've been circling the drain for a while; all they need now are some empty grain silos.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Why would the Chinese people accept the Japanese yen as a reserve currency? You surely meant the yuan.
If we are discussing the Chinese yuan as a potential global reserve currency, I have to disappoint you: it’s not going to happen. (The Chinese are well aware of this and don't actually want the yuan as a reserve currency; it's a double-edged sword regardless).
The primary, insurmountable obstacle is the absolute rule of the Party currently in power in China. Instead of the firm rule of law found in any functional nation—though "functional" is a relative term these days—you have something else entirely. No rational actor is going to put themselves in a position where the fate of their debt or credit ultimately rests on the whim of a Chinese Party Secretary. That is a non-starter for the yuan. There are other reasons, of course, but this one is an impassable wall for China's current political system and remains unacceptable to all other players in the global arena.

Yeah, the yuan—renminbi.

They haven't wanted to until recently, when they started tentatively opening up.
If this situation with Russia isn't a massive wake-up call, they'd have to be crazy. Building a sovereign, independent global financial system based on their own currency is an absolute top priority for them.

Brenda Murphy3 said:but honestly, everything you just said is totally wrong... fascinating...😁

Thanks for the long-winded lecture 😁

Nancy Gomez26 said:No one is suggesting that Putin or Russia shouldn't implement their own internal gold standard. They could back the ruble with gold reserves. The Russian Federal Reserve certainly holds enough gold to make that happen. Furthermore, nobody forced Putin to settle transactions in USD or EUR. He could have simply dictated the price of gas and oil in ounces of gold. As the seller, he sets the terms—if the buyers don't like the deal, they can take their business elsewhere. He didn't do any of that because he was a willing participant in the global fiat system and reaped the rewards. Now, that decision is coming back to haunt the people within Russia—the most loyal hostages and victims of his political machine.

He was being naive. This "global market" everyone advertises isn't actually open to everyone—it’s more like a trap designed to lure someone in before stripping them naked. It reminds me of a similar, even bigger heist: the Bretton Woods agreement.

This whole sanctions move? It's bigger than Ukraine, IMO. That conflict is almost a footnote compared to the scale of what we're stepping into.
The speed and sheer suddenness of the reaction—that pre-made list of targets—shows this was a calculated plan just waiting for an excuse to trigger.

Just watch what China does with American Treasuries and their other Western holdings in the coming months. The obvious endgame is to ditch the dollar in the medium term and make the Yuan the mandatory currency for Chinese goods—let's see who survives without it. The digital Yuan is definitely going on the fast track, and I wouldn't be surprised if they pull a total 180 on digital currencies, including mining—just so the Americans can't pull a stunt to seize control of the blockchain via "proof of work."

I'm not losing sleep over the folks in Washington or London; they'll cover themselves and probably turn a profit. The EU—and obviously Russia—will foot the bill. Like I said, the damage from the bank run on Sberbank is already costing us a fortune, and that's just the opening salvo.

With the Western markets closed, the ruble ended up at about 105 to the dollar. Not bad, I guess.
Considering this is easily the most brutal financial hit any country has taken since the gold standard was scrapped—if not ever (reminds me of that exchange booth in Thailand where they just slapped a zero on everything).

The West is going to be pretty disappointed if Putin keeps up the military operations; they were probably banking on the ruble hitting zero and seeing mass protests break out everywhere.
If Putin hadn't messed up by keeping too much central bank cash in euros, he might have sailed right through this. After this stunt, it's obvious the euro is basically just an American auxiliary currency now—no one facing financial warfare is going to want it. I really hope there's still time to reconsider moving toward it.

It looks like our government is going to have to cough up nearly $350 million to cover those borrowed bonds, which goes straight to a domestic JPMorgan Chase that's staring down bankruptcy. Yikes... sure, some of that gets recouped through issued credits and whatnot, but that’s going to move at a snail's pace.

ruggeddriver70 said:Actually, kind of good news for the European Union, considering Emirates is basically the biggest buyer of the Boeing 747.

They aren't making them anymore—but other models might still be worth watching.

btw, the Ruble bounced back and leveled out at 99.9 against the dollar. That's the extent of how the Ursuline freezing of the central bank assets works to stop an intervention when sanctions hit—basically, they'll probably try to crash things once those Eastern forex markets shut down, I guess.

ruggeddriver70 said:Exactly. And now, Delta Air Lines isn't getting any of that transit cash from flying over Russia, plus they aren't even allowed to fly into Europe anymore. An airline that was supposed to be a total cash machine is basically going to be stuck living off government handouts—kind of like how United Airlines or Amtrak have to deal with sometimes.

Fine, go ahead with the financial sanctions, but this move is just plain stupid.

Either way, Russia and the European Union are just screwing each other over here—meanwhile, third parties who didn't join the flight ban are going to make a killing.

Their airlines get to take the cheaper routes and undercut Europeans on pricing. The Chinese will lead the charge, and from what I've heard, neither the Japanese nor the Koreans have put similar embargos in place.

Then you've got the Sultan and Dubai, who are going to rake in the profits from all of this. Even Europeans will end up lining Iran's pockets for transit rights, which is sure to piss off the hawks, AIPAC, and Israel.

Gerald Chavez7 said:You’ll probably be predicting $150 per share, then $200 by Tuesday, then $300 by the weekend 😁

...cutting off Swift (for like 90% of the major banks) might mean Russia announces a bank holiday this Monday—just another imperialist move to stop a bank run 😉

Honestly, the fact they made this move on Saturday suggests the European Union left just enough breathing room for Russia to shore up their defenses before Monday hits.

Ashley Ramirez4 said:Poles, Czechs, and Swedes won't be playing the World Cup qualifiers against Russia

So where exactly do the Poles and Czechs end up in a group with them? 😵
And they still would've had to play Russia as the host—right there in Moscow...

It’s pretty obvious there's pressure on FIFA to just suspend Russia—these teams aren't about to hand over their World Cup spots without a fight. FIFA will probably just move everything to a neutral site instead, let whoever wants to play, play.

It feels like there's a new package of sanctions being cooked up every single day. Europe is basically playing poker with Putin—thinking they can bluff him into backing down (not likely)—but all they're doing is burning bridges with Russia and sabotaging themselves in the process. And honestly, do we even need to mention how the USA is practically rubbing its hands together because they finally managed to "decouple" Europe from Russia? Now they just need to come up with a similar playbook for China, leaving us stuck in the middle like some second-rate province.

Speaking of sanctions, they've been throwing them at everything under the sun for the last eight years—mostly led by the USA—and now the cat's out of the bag. People have realized this is just a tool for submission, a way to slowly but surely squeeze everyone into a corner.
And now that they actually need them to work, they don't. No matter what the new world order looks like after this mess, it's obvious that sanctions need to be governed by international law—used as a serious, last-resort measure before you cut diplomatic ties or go to war. Not just used for policing tiny countries that get in the way or slapping companies that grew too big for their boots (looking at you, certain Chinese firms).

Raymond Anderson4 said:Man, last year's Alpine looked sharp—now this pink mess has completely ruined the vibe.

Sure, the car is fine, but those suits look like some weird Super Mario pink edition.

The video shows a concept car, but the photos are just renders of the actual model
https://twitter.com/AlpineF1Team/sta...vDyri7809k1Bxw

Jason Campbell70 said:Mercedes-Benz will probably end up adding a wider cooling inlet later on—sort of like what McLaren did—or maybe they'll try those venturi tunnels like Aston Martin.

Which specific part of the technical regulations actually sets a minimum width for the sidepods?

Here’s my take on it.
The rulebook basically says you can't have sharp winglets; everything has to be rounded off with a certain minimum radius—that’s why Ferrari went with that scooped-out look. Since that area houses the crash structures, you can't just stick a jagged little fin on there like in this sketch; it has to be a larger, more substantial component. Technically, they could even design sidepods without any inlets at all.

I don't see them actually doing that, though—if they did, all that dirty air coming off the tires would just slam right into the rear of the car. Everyone else uses wider sidepods specifically to kick that turbulent air away.

I was expecting the Mercedes to look more "bulky" like the Aston Martin, but they actually smoothed things out quite a bit—basically just spreading those bulges around to cut down drag and keeping the sidepods pretty slim. It feels more like a Williams approach.

But let's be real, it isn't exactly groundbreaking. You can clearly see how much the team obsessed over 2021.

As for Ferrari, I'm not sure what to make of that little pool setup. Maybe they're using it for downforce to help cooling, or perhaps they're venting air from the radiators straight toward the diffuser...

At this point, Alpine is still a total mystery, and there wasn't enough detail captured on the Red Bull to tell what they've actually cooked up—unless, of course, the Mercedes spies were packing better cameras than we thought.☕

Tyler Bennett5 said:The actual FW44 was out at Silverstone—first thing I noticed was that rounded nose and those massive cooling inlets. They look huge compared
to the other cars on the grid.

Williams just went with bigger openings to cram as many radiators as possible toward the front. They’re also using a top intake since there’s plenty of room behind it—basically anything to keep that rear "coke bottle" section tight.

Alfa, meanwhile, is running a cooling setup similar to Aston, though they have that weirdly shaped intake on top too.

Oh, and word is Alpha Tauri might be trying to vent hot air from the cooling through the floor near the diffuser—just a little trick to try and boost the ground effect.

Gregory Brown94 said:Looking at this, it seems like AlphaTauri is just mashing together bits of Haas and Aston Martin—which is pretty much what I'm expecting from Red Bull too.

The car starts off looking like an Aston Martin, but those raised sidepods are shorter. It looks like they designed it this way to fit a compact Honda engine. There might be room for gills like the Aston Martin has, but you can't see them—maybe they're just venting air out the back. We can already get a decent guess at how the Red Bull and Mercedes will handle their sidepod design and engine geometry. Everything else will probably look different—it wouldn't make sense if it were identical.

AlphaTauri really needs to find whoever leaked this.