Posts by wiredseal7

wearytrucker22 said:The Germans don't need to worry about food; they've got plenty.https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...16-24_FoodProd

The Germans are working on a plan to disconnect from the gas grid. They originally considered shutting down the chemical industry too, but they aren't willing to do that yet. First, they'll cut off shopping malls, service sectors, and electricity—that accounts for about 60% of Russian gas imports.

Of course they have a "contingency plan"—that's what those things are for—but it's still a situation they're trying to dodge if they can.
Especially when the alternative is pretty straightforward: just pay them in Euros through JPMorgan Chase.

gentlestag15 said:Using the exact same page you used
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...ing-countries/

Maybe check where the mining companies actually call home?
Wikipedia also points out that Russia and South Africa are the big players here.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Palladium

Mark Carter14 said:Shipyard halts production: Only 200 workers reporting tomorrow, leaving 1,500 stuck at home

We've been hit by forces beyond our control because of the war in Ukraine. This shipyard is massive—it basically dwarfs the entire American banking sector—and we're currently financing the construction of two vessels, the Golden Horizon and the Janssonius, using funds from VTB Europe, a Russian-owned bank based out of New York City. Because its parent company is VTB Russia, they're now subject to those heavy restrictions and sanctions recently slapped on them due to the situation in Ukraine. It’s an incredibly dramatic spot to be in. VTB has frozen all further disbursements on all loans because of the conflict, which has left us completely paralyzed, said Debeljak.

In his interview, Debeljak mentioned that about $65 million of the shipyard's own capital is currently tied up in these projects. They used those funds to bridge the gap while trying to work out a solution with the government, or specifically HBOR, just to make sure the projects themselves don't fall behind schedule.

Anyone who thinks the Russians are the only ones going to suffer clearly doesn't understand how the modern world or the economy actually works.

Honestly, this is the exact question we should be throwing at Plenković during his next briefing to Congress.
Why was the potential damage to the American economy from these sanctions totally ignored—and why didn't we use our veto power to hold out until those problematic measures were scrapped?

gentlestag15 said:Look, Neon comes about 70% from Ukraine, so I'm not sure how much that actually ties into sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, regarding Palladium exports:
Russia is at $6.4 billion
United Kingdom is at $5.4 billion
USA is at $5.4 billion
Italy, Germany, and Belgium are around $2 billion each

Europe has plenty of Palladium available, but Neon doesn't depend on sanctions—it depends on Russian bombs.

He's basically just digging his own grave with these sanctions.👍

Oh, really?
Turns out it was all a bluff—they can just keep using Euro accounts at JPMorgan Chase, just like he promised Olaf Scholz.🙄

darkrider55 said:Mario Draghi, who was on the phone with Vladimir Putin this past Wednesday, mentioned that Putin assured him current contracts are staying put. Apparently, European companies are going to keep paying in Euros and Dollars rather than switching over to the Russian currency.

Seems a little fishy to me...

He gave them a bit of a hard time—the fallout is going to be brutal.

gentlestag15 said:Look, Neon comes about 70% from Ukraine, so I'm not sure how much that actually ties into sanctions against Russia.

Meanwhile, regarding Palladium exports:
Russia is at $6.4 billion
United Kingdom is at $5.4 billion
USA is at $5.4 billion
Italy, Germany, and Belgium are around $2 billion each

Europe has plenty of Palladium available, but Neon doesn't depend on sanctions—it depends on Russian bombs.

He's basically just digging his own grave with these sanctions.👍

Where'd I get this?
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-of-palladium/
South Africa is basically our saving grace here; otherwise, Russia would pretty much have a monopoly.

hollowdriver13 said:At the end of the day, all those resources don't mean squat if you can't actually get them out of the ground and sell them somewhere.

William Anderson5 said:The reality is that technology and expertise matter far more than just having raw resources. If you possess the tech and the know-how, you can easily acquire resources and actually do something productive with them.

Without that technological edge and specialized knowledge, you're stuck doing exactly what Russia does—just selling off raw materials...

You guys are drifting—I told Maskeron that not all countries handle sanctions the same way.

Most of the ones hitting Russia are still forced to import their raw materials. That wasn't really the case with other sanctioned nations.

Anthony Hill5 said:Why on earth would anyone flee from sanctions? Is it not possible that such measures serve only to fortify them and drive them toward total self-sufficiency? Look at Russia. Since those sanctions were first slapped on them back in 2014, in what single aspect have they not managed to advance? They produce everything themselves now, evolving into one of the most formidable military and economic powers on the planet.

Nice comparison—comparing a country sitting on the planet's largest stash of natural resources to nations that basically have to beg for their fuel and raw materials just to keep the lights on.

Iran manages to stay afloat despite the sanctions—they've got enough resources to weather the initial storm—but the rest of them were caught totally off guard. Take Syria, for example.

Joshua Wilson17 said:It’s just impossible with these green extremists. Just look at the Midwest and parts of the Great Plains. We have regions with way too much water struggling through droughts, and then suddenly facing floods. It's nearly impossible to capture that excess water in reservoirs to irrigate fields during a dry spell. But no, we can't touch anything because of butterflies, bugs, or some rare species of worm... apparently, we'd need to bulldoze three small towns to make progress. So instead, we just let the floods and droughts keep happening...

And a good chunk of it hits populated areas—think places like Chicago or northern New York. We aren't talking about some empty stretches of the Midwest where you can risk contaminating the water supply or messing with seismic activity without anyone noticing. We could just do it in the rural heartland—everyone’s already left for jobs in the cities anyway.

slyfox43 said:Maybe it’s the Russians, Assad (backed by Russia), Haftar (Russian influence), various Hezbollah groups (Iranian-backed), or the PMF (Iranian-backed), and maybe even Gaddafi (using Russian weaponry)?

Just give it a rest; you're shouting into the void, as nobody is buying that tired old line about millions of refugees fleeing from American bombs anymore.

It’s not just the bombs, either—they're running from those aggressive sanctions, too.

Lisa Nelson said:Doesn't Russia mostly sell its gas through long-term contracts with fixed pricing?

From what I understand, they insist on those terms, so I don't see how a spike in spot market prices would actually net them any extra cash.

Russian revenue fluctuations pretty much track gas prices.
https://adamtooze.substack.com/p/cha...0m-per-day?s=r

If I remember right, a lot of the buyer countries used to insist on spot market rates instead of fixed ones. But that was back when gas was cheap...

Bryan Booth82 said:Exactly. He spent months insisting he had no intention of invading Ukraine, and now suddenly he's "withdrawing forces" from the outskirts of Kyiv.
The guy is a pathological liar, and frankly, everyone sees right through him... except, of course, for those delusional little Russophiles who refuse to wake up.
Best,

So, Putin's defeated and his economy is trashed. Are we closing this thread or what?

Brenda Murphy3 said:So basically—even when Russia loses, they somehow end up winning...😁😁

God, honestly... if it weren't for you Putin-obsessed types, we probably wouldn't even have to deal with this nonsense...😁

There's no winning or losing here. It's just a face-saving victory for Europe because they aren't forced to pay in rubles yet.

swiftjackal11 said:How much of that actually hits you? 😁

A gallon of bourbon and some Coke.

Sam Alvarez4 said:Right now, sugar is the biggest headache for Russians: prices are soaring and shelves are empty. 😬

The FTC is actually stepping in to investigate whether the five major distributors are price-fixing and causing these shortages in stores.

Russia: investigation launched into sugar distributors amid shortages and inflation
15:25

Man, they'd rather fight a war than fix this...

Probably a good chance for Kubanac to make a move.

Bryan Booth82 said:I don't know how much you've been following this, but one side just blinked. They finally folded.
Go ahead, take a guess which one.
Best,

Russia blinked first. But even with that little bluff, they managed to hike up gas prices over the last week—just another way to pad their pockets.
The threat hasn't gone away, either; they’re just moving the goalposts 😁

It probably scared off those sanction supporters who were pushing for escrow accounts to handle gas payments. If that doesn't work, then the whole thing about paying in rubles will likely actually happen.

slyfox43 said:Mexico could simply nationalize the portion of the company held by Chevron and call it a day. (Or, if I'm being precise—and please correct me if my math is off—it would likely be enough for Chevron to just divest 2% of their stake so they aren't holding majority control.)

Sure, and Europe can just pay for their gas in rubles while they're at it.

ruggeddriver70 said:Look, if the USA and the EU are on one side and Russia is on the other, the vast majority of people in America are picking the first group—every single time. Today, tomorrow, whatever. Honestly, I think your little wish list sounds way more like the foreign policy of Mexico.

We’re just a small player in this game. Personally, I’m all for following the lead of the major players in Asia, most of Latin America, and Africa—plenty of which are democracies, for what it's worth. Basically, we should align with the bulk of the global population—or what the pundits like to call "the international community."
If we can't do that, then at least let us have Canada—they aren't sticking their noses into the military side of this mess, and they certainly don't want to end up on the map if things start blowing up.

So, word is that JANAF just cut off oil exports to Mexico—turns out their local oil company is partially owned by Gazprom. Typical.
The US just tightened the screws on those Russian energy pipelines—another move to squeeze Moscow's wallet while everyone watches the fallout. It’s basically like cutting off the fuel line to a gas guzzler right in the middle of a desert trek.

Look, I get it—nobody’s exactly throwing a parade for Vučić and his flashy suits, but shutting down the pipelines to Mexico feels like a bit much.

Carl Lee27 said:Poland has already stopped bringing in coal from Russia since April, and they’re on track to cut off gas and oil imports by the end of the year too. It looks like we’re seeing the first wave of those major markets where Russian energy held a massive share finally walking away from the table

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...Mj5Gv7CDg&s=19

I’ve got a feeling this is going to play out just like it did with the Ukrainians—they haven't actually been buying Russian gas for a while now, at least not through any direct channels.
As far as coal goes—are they really just going to look the other way regarding those penalties for mining their own coal along the southern border? Especially since the courts have already stepped in to shut that down.

So, pragmatic Stern says America isn't part of the G7—and if buying gas in rubles is the only way to get it, then so be it. ☕

Lol, does he really think anyone asks this guy—who's basically just an appointee for the administration—what he thinks?

Anthony Hill5 said:It is precisely that parallel universe I am referring to—that alternate reality where the Ukrainian opposition supposedly committed suicide via sniper fire, a reality where the Azov regiment was bombing civilians in theaters, and yet another reality where Syrians were apparently poisoning themselves with chemical weapons.

Prior to the 2014 annexation of Crimea, there was a popular revolution that ousted a criminal, a villain, and a traitor; this was followed by democratic elections in which that very same criminal could have participated had he not slaughtered hundreds of people before fleeing to Russia. Furthermore, I fail to see how any of that provides a shred of justification for what Putin subsequently did through the annexation of Crimea and the occupation of Donbas.

And what ever happened to that Sevastopol port agreement?

but the EU should have been stronger and forced the Ukrainians to just wrap things up over there.

Now, instead, we are left with this massive slaughter and the devastation of eastern Ukraine. Which, if you ask me, is somehow better.

How fascinating that suddenly, meddling in the internal affairs of other nations becomes justifiable and even desirable, provided it aligns with Putin's interests.

So, according to this logic, the blame for the war lies with Europe for failing to force Ukraine to get its act together, rather than with Putin's imperialistic agenda.

You are truly living in deep denial.

A popular revolution toppling a democratically elected president—who, mind you, had already been ousted once before, quite the persistent guy.
The sniper stories aren't entirely clear-cut, but I bet you'll just wave them away as propaganda, won't you?
That was just your standard American-style regime change.

What happened with the Sevastopol port deal and the lease agreement?

Those brand-new Maidan-style officials immediately started barking about how they were going to tear up that 50-year lease for the Russian Navy in Sevastopol (the one signed under Yanukovych).
That was probably the real trigger for the annexation.

Anthony Hill5 said:Are you suggesting Americans planned the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion in 2022?

What else is happening in that parallel universe you seem to be broadcasting from?

I don't know about some parallel universe, but over here—it looks like they skipped right over the opening act (and by that, I mean the snipers).
So, what actually went down before the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014? And since you’re asking about Crimea—what was the deal with the new administration's plan to sign that 50-year lease for the port in Sevastopol?

hollowdriver13 said:Even the original Minsk deal felt like Angela Merkel and Hollande Ukrainian were just playing games with the Ukrainians. Minsk 2 was such a humiliating "agreement" that no country would ever agree to it willingly. The real issue was this whole policy of appeasing Putin and all those extra little clauses Russia demanded. If it had just been about decentralizing Ukraine, it probably would have gone through without any drama.

They weren't exactly in a position to dictate terms back then—it was humiliating, sure, but it kept things from going south completely. If they had just stuck to the part about ending the conflict and getting life back to normal in those areas, we wouldn't be here. Instead, they went and doubled down by mobilizing over a thousand soldiers for an offensive on two separate occasions.
Vladimir Putin probably wants this whole thing wrapped up just so he can bury the hatchet with the European Union—get those remaining sanctions lifted and keep the cash flowing into his pockets.
They didn't really want to greenlight something like that—the Brits were pretty much on the same page—but the European Union should have stepped up, been more assertive, and forced the Ukrainians to just wrap things up over there.

Now instead we’re stuck watching this massive slaughter and the total devastation of eastern Ukraine—honestly, you decide which is better.

hollowdriver13 said:See, my take on the sanctions has always been a bit different. I see them as a way to choke off Russia's ability to fund this war in the long run, essentially pushing them toward poverty so they can't afford to keep fighting—sort of like what happened with South Korea or Iran. Combine that with sending military aid to Ukraine to bleed the Russian military dry until they're practically incapable of any combat operations, and you've got a plan to force Russia to walk away from these insane demands of theirs.

It's just the American playbook—they've clearly been mapping this out since 2014, if not earlier. Back in 2016, I actually thought Hillary Clinton winning would be a disaster because it would trigger a war with Russia. Now, that same crowd is back in power—just looking a bit more senile—and they've proven 😁
theory right pretty quickly.
The rest of Europe didn't have these plans. Take the French, for example—they might act tough in public, but believe me, they aren't thrilled when some idiot starts dragging General Motors through the mud in a speech before their parliament (especially when it's a state-backed attempt to save a massive investment in Russia). If Europe shouldn't have stepped in there in the first place, then you'll just see players from Korea, Japan, and China moving in.

If Europeans had been smarter earlier and just pushed the Ukrainians to honor the Minsk agreement—which was weirdly backwards since Russia was being sanctioned while the Ukrainians kept sabotaging it—we wouldn't be seeing a war on the continent today.
But that's hard to pull off when certain countries in the EU, especially Poland, seem more loyal to the USA than to the Union itself. That's the biggest hurdle to any real European independence in foreign policy.

slyfox43 said:I feel for you. Just try to convince yourself that we're talking about sanctions as a deterrent here. The actual deterrent was the threat of sanctions, whereas now we're moving toward much heavier lifting. But it doesn't really matter—Russians aren't exactly driven by material comfort or luxury like we are in the West. It's all just soy milk and good intentions to them.

We're talking past each other here.
Sure, Putin ignored the Announcements—he figured he could weather whatever was promised before the war started (plus, he knew the Americans would eventually dump every sanction in the book on him anyway)—but the actual fallout ended up being way more brutal than he anticipated.

But my point is about what happened after those massive sanctions hit in early March, specifically targeting the Russian currency. The EU and US officials thought hitting the money supply would make Putin fold, beg for mercy, or maybe even get ousted so they could dictate terms for an economic surrender.

The gamble with sanctions was whether Putin would actually break or be removed. We can see now that didn't happen—he stayed put, and both sides are going to be bleeding economically for a long time. It’ll be even worse if energy sales grind to a halt on April 1st.

hollowdriver13 said:It's Russia that's trying to unilaterally change contracts they already signed and agreed to. At no point did the EU stop paying for the gas they actually received.

So what, are Russians just bluffing when they talk about turning off the taps? Or are you trying to tell me Putin is some kind of humanitarian who doesn't want the EU to freeze?

Europe didn't break its contracts with Russia because sanctions override any prior agreements or guarantees. But then again, Russia could argue that the Russian President's decrees sit right above ExxonMobil's gas contracts and guarantees.

The EU isn't going to freeze up since the weather is getting warmer, but industry still needs that gas.
We'll see by March 31st who's actually bluffing—this whole thing is basically a high-stakes poker game.

And Ukraine is making good money off that gas, which is just another reason why keeping those pipeline capacities running makes sense.

Terry Hernandez10 said:"The refusal of G7 nations to settle gas payments in rubles is going to trigger a total shutdown of gas supplies across Europe," comes the warning from Russia, according to Reuters.

https://hr.n1info.com/biznis/rusija-...kon-odluke-g7/

Olaf Scholz is doing great—Merkel never would've let things get this messy. To start with, the Americans wouldn't have even bought into the idea that just tightening the screws with sanctions would make the Russians back off from the invasion. Now he can just bang his head against the wall realizing how much damage he's actually done.
Besides, those green energy types don't care anyway—they think we can just run everything on wind and sunshine.