Posts by wiredseal7

The Americans are sweating over how to move Ukrainian grain.

With the bridge near Zatoka trashed and the maritime blockade of Odessa still holding firm—especially after that failed offensive on Snake Island—things are messy. Now they’re entertaining this idea of hauling it by rail through Belarus to reach the port of Klaipeda. The catch? They might lift sanctions on Belarusian potash fertilizer to make the deal work.

Honestly, the Americans are kind of a joke. They always act like they can just wipe the slate clean and pretend everything is fine the moment they extend an olive branch... How convenient, right? And apparently, they need the fertilizer just as much as the grain. 🙂

Can I ask a stupid question here: why not just ship the grain toward Poland? Maybe they don't want to tie up the rail lines needed for moving weapons, and returning empty freight cars would be too much of a hassle? Guess they have to pick their priorities.

So this guy claims Russians have to switch to welding tank turrets instead of casting them:
https://twitter.com/cirnosad/status/...9TvMmb7tqaICDQ
Is this actually the impact of sanctions?
Honestly, those rumors about them stopping tank production entirely because of sanctions felt like a stretch—they just delivered a fresh batch of T-90Ms to the troops the other day.

They also seem to forget that Viktor Orbán is basically running diesel back toward Ukraine in reverse—it's a necessity because of those massive shortages—or at least that's the deal being hashed out right now.

But sure, go ahead and call Ukraine's enemy ☕

slyfox43 said:Exports to Russia compared to this time last year.

China is down by 50%.

https://twitter.com/IikkaKorhonen/st...86893271715840

It feels like China and Russia are teaming up to leave the West completely stripped bare.

You mean down 26% compared to last year? Maybe the factor isn't just war and sanctions—it could be those lockdowns over in China, too.

Nancy Gomez26 said:The source of the risk lies in political decisions, which represent an unpredictable variable for insurance companies. This differs from most other risks where you can calculate probability with reasonable precision. Politicians can simply decide and legislate whatever they please, particularly within an autocratic system. Any nation can act this way, though some certainly do so more frequently than others.

We saw how easily our leaders and European politicians jumped to vote for sanctions—all in that desperate, heated rush to play wrecking ball to the Russian economy.
Isn't that an unpredictable risk too? And I don't just mean when it comes to Russia.

Whether they return the planes right now or not doesn't really matter—nobody’s going to touch leasing aircraft to Russia again. They're just sitting ducks for retaliation if relations sour further—easy target for some payback. If they actually decide to hand them back, I guess that means the risk level has finally stabilized. At least, that's how I see it.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Yes, they likely overplayed their hand. They need those funds unfrozen just so they can skim off the top for "account maintenance" and other various overhead costs. Bankers always prioritize their own pockets first; looking out for themselves comes long before anyone else.

Look, you're missing the point—you don't actually need a third of your balance just to cover account maintenance and those little extra fees. Even in places like Switzerland, where they’ve started charging negative interest just for the privilege of holding your cash, we're talking less than 1% a year. It's pretty much the same story with most other financial services or investment products out there.

Anthony Hill5 said:Here you go, my friend.

I am eagerly awaiting your scathing critique.

Russia Nationalizes Renault Plant, Revives Soviet-Era Moskvich Car

https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/...tch-car-a77685

The Russians have nationalized the Renault plant and are moving forward with production of the Moskvich, as the regime deems the Moskvich to be the most rational choice for citizens living in this era of progress and prosperity.

Once again, sanctions have only served to strengthen Russia.

Why would I condemn it? Who started the whole freezing assets and sanctions game first?
Russian moves are just a response to the economic war waged against them—you know, eye for an eye, tooth for a tooth.

I’d criticize it if it happened before all this, but Russia isn't the aggressor here—they're playing defense.

Besides, they did it to keep the company breathing and save jobs. That's actually responsible policy—unlike the European approach, where I assume some Frenchman will end up footing the bill for Renault with a few billion euros.

It's not even comparable to Gazprom, which would be pumping gas regardless of whether they were expropriated or not.

Anthony Hill5 said:Renault has essentially handed over assets valued at 2.2 billion euros for the princely sum of a SINGLE ruble. There is some mention of a buyback option, though the specifics remain shrouded in mystery.

Renault agreed to it? Well, can't blame them... no point complaining when the deal is already done.
They probably got some compensation—which is obviously being kept hush-hush because of that hysterical Zelensky administration running around lobbying and acting like clowns.

Pretty much like how the Russians agreed to buy the A330. Everyone's happy. 😁

https://www.swissinfo.ch/eng/switzer...tions/47590508

Once the dust finally settled, the Swiss decided to unfreeze about a third of those Russian assets.
Well, I guess we overshot the mark on that one...

Nancy Gomez26 said:I suspect Delta Air Lines essentially bought out their leasing agreements to settle up. Once Putin decided to seize those leased aircraft, he triggered a domino effect of complications for any airline holding such assets. First, there is the immediate issue of defaulted payments and the legitimate risk of seizure by leasing companies or insurers if these planes ever land outside of Russia. Then comes the maintenance nightmare. In aviation, every single service and every component must be certified and documented meticulously. It is highly probable that no one outside of Russia will touch these planes—even if all lease payments were settled—because the maintenance records are now considered non-transparent. Their value effectively hits zero, or rather, just the scrap value of the raw materials. The leasing companies might actually come out ahead; these aircraft are insured against precisely this kind of scenario, and with a current surplus of aircraft on the market keeping lease rates low, the removal of these units from the global pool will actually benefit the industry. The ones footing the bill will be the insurance companies. However, they will recoup those losses later by labeling Russia a high-risk jurisdiction, which means higher premiums moving forward. Ultimately, the cost falls on the passengers flying within Russia. As usual, the citizens end up paying the price for questionable political decisions made in the past. And who else would?

Yeah, exactly—sanctions usually have a loophole for buying out planes once a lease expires, which is what Delta Air Lines used here.

But we’re talking about maybe 8 planes out of 400.
Plus, a Boeing 777 is probably overkill for short domestic hops, so that plays into the decision too.

I wonder what they’ll even do with them. Buying them just to let them rot isn't an investment. Maybe they'll try re-registering them under a foreign carrier to make them useful again.

As for the price, if the leasing companies aren't losing money, the insurers have every incentive to push for a sale—they might even chip in to settle things.

Premiums are going up regardless of whatever Delta Air Lines does. The risk isn't coming from the airline itself; it's the sanctions and counter-sanctions. That risk stays tied to Russia no matter how much diplomacy improves.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Here’s the news: Delta Air Lines just bought out eight aircraft that were previously under lease agreements. They paid them off, even though the Federal Reserve essentially 'reclassified' them in their books. It suggests that the folks over at Delta actually grasp the long-term fallout of ignoring lease contracts—something the politicians failed to consider when they decided to bend the rules to suit their immediate interests.
Link.

Slow down—that's only 8 out of 400 (and 8 out of those 12 massive Boeing 777s, which might be the only way they stay afloat).

They probably snagged these for pennies on the dollar—once you factor in the blocked returns and the fact that official servicing is shot, the value drops for everyone involved.

🤣
Fair enough. Since Notre Dame burned down, why not just seize a new one from the Russian Orthodox Church to outfit the French Legion?
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Alexan...thedral,_Paris

Russia turns to pirate movies after cultural export boycott
https://torrentfreak.com/russian-cin...rrents-220502/

Totally shocked by this news. 🙄
Sure, people are calling for a revolution because they can't stream the latest Netflix hits—but give it two or three months and everyone will be watching 4K rips anyway.

Only by the end of the year, though 😁

hollowdriver13 said:Bankruptcy incoming

https://markets.businessinsider.com/...-us-2022-4?amp

So, looks like the big state-run railroad company over in Russia just missed a massive $268 million payment, and now they're officially being treated as insolvent. Basically, they've hit bankruptcy status.

It isn't bankruptcy—the Americans would have to file for that. They aren't missing payments because they can't afford them; it's just that their funds are frozen in Switzerland (😵)

"Despite the ruling, Amtrak argued in a statement on Tuesday that it had fulfilled its obligations on the Swiss franc bond worth $268 million, as it had tried to pay but had been blocked due to sanctions, Bloomberg reported."

analogbear5 said:oh Resurrected, always ready to play bodyguard for those poor Russian turbo-capitalist billionaires. 😁

Jeff Bezos can only dream of having anyone defend him like that—aside from his lawyers, obviously.

We're talking about sanctions here—not you, wiredseal7.

More mess involving the split between Haas and Uralkali:
https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/h...money/9889906/

Uralkali is demanding $13 million back for a contract they terminated BEFORE any sanctions even hit the fan.

Haas is hitting back—claiming they’re actually owed nearly $9 million due to lost profits. It sounds pretty wild, honestly—especially since things have been going great for them now that Mazepin isn't footing the bill and they've got a solid car this season.
Word is they haven't even settled the driver's salary (Mazepin's kid) for the time he was still with the team, even though he ended up getting sanctioned in the process.
😵

Everyone seems obsessed with looting money from Russia lately—these small-time thieves from the States jumped right on the bandwagon, trying to squeeze every cent out of it. If they've got all that extra cash, why not just toss it into a humanitarian fund for Ukraine?

Looks like America might be shipping some of these helicopters over to Ukraine:
https://www.militaryaerospace.com/co...of-afghanistan

They’re actually pretty recent—manufactured around 2013.
The whole move feels a bit shady, though—likely a blatant breach of contract with the Russians, who were the original buyers.

Do we even have any Mi-8s left in our inventory? Not that I'm pushing for it—sending aircraft like this is a massive escalation waiting to happen.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ar-2022-04-13/

The Chinese giant CNOOC is looking to pull out of Western markets just to dodge any potential sanction headaches. It looks like China has already picked its favorite energy player to handle all the heavy lifting for Russian oil and gas imports.

Decoupling—exactly what Trump was aiming for, I guess.

Sam Alvarez4 said:The UK just expanded its sanctions list with 178 new names, mostly targeting those backing the decoupling efforts...

UK expands sanctions to include 178 separatists and oligarchs
13:22

Pretty soon, instead of getting banned from forums, we'll be getting hit with EU and US sanctions—anyone up for that?

Dennis Price said:He had already explained yesterday that Turkey was preparing to apply article 19 of the Montreux Convention, signed in 1936, which prohibits the passage of military vessels of powers at war, except those returning to their port of registry.

You aren't even reading what you post.

And you're just cherry-picking the parts that suit your narrative.
The first paragraph clearly states:

Quote : The Turkish government announced today that IT is closing The Bosphorus Strait to The passage of military vessels fra All countries , although ships based in The Black Sea, such as those from Russia or Ukraine, will still be allowed to return to their ports , in application of The Montreux Convention.

It's actually a bit different here:

https://www.navalnews.com/naval-news...s-to-warships/
“When Turkey is not a belligerent in the conflict, it has the authority to restrict the passage of the warring states’ warships across the straits. If the warship is returning to its base in the Black Sea, the passage is not closed. We adhere to the Montreux rules. All governments, riparian and non-riparian, were warned not to send warships across the straits.”

Fine, they "warned" them—let's call it what it is—but the message is loud and clear for anyone thinking about sending anything through.

Dennis Price said:Do you even realize how much you're talking nonsense?

What do you make of this nonsense?

Quote : The Turkish government announced today that IT is closing The Bosphorus Strait to The passage of military vessels fra All countries , although ships based in The Black Sea Russia or Ukraine , will still be allowed to return to their ports , in application of The Montreux Convention. Basically, the gates are shutting—just like when a landlord locks the building during a riot—leaving everyone else stuck on the outside looking in.

Right from the jump, the Bosphorus is closed to warships from any nation—it's already happening.

Even during peacetime, the convention keeps the straits closed to carriers—though they let the Kuznetsov slide since it’s technically classified as a guided missile cruiser. 😬)

velvetbadger11 said:Turkey is part of NATO, and they’d probably try to block the passage for Americans—it's almost laughable.

That's exactly what's happening right now—they're following the Montreux Convention, which lets them shut the straits to all warships during wartime, a move they've already made.

Admiral Gorskov has already been blocked, so NATO hasn't even had a chance to test the waters yet.