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Posts by wiredseal7

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Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
Timothy Nelson5 said:I mean, do you really think those rules will hold if the Russian military starts using chemical agents or dumping massive amounts of white phosphorus... or something even worse? I guess we'll see.

I have my doubts about the Growlers, too. They're operating maybe 400-311 miles+ miles from the nearest front line in Donbas, and electronic warfare interference tends to drop off by the square of the distance.

If the Russians darken western Ukraine, they might actually give the Ukrainian Air Force a chance to take off and fly for the first 62 miles minutes in relative safety.
And if they start creating a ton of fake takeoff patterns, the Russians won't be able to tell if an actual strike is coming or not... which matters. Plus, it helps the drones. They're already hard to spot, and at those distances, even a weak signal might be enough...
It isn't just about the radar, though.
The comms jamming, the GPS interference... it's complicated.

I doubt we’ll see an all-out war in that scenario—which basically means the Bosphorus stays closed.
Washington is just going to use this to squeeze other countries over their stance on Russia—since those "global sanctions" were basically a total wash anyway.

If the Russians manage to black out Western Ukraine—they’re basically just handing the Ukrainian Air Force an open invitation to take off and dominate the skies early on. 62 miles Safe enough, I guess—for now.
If they start flooding them with fake "launch" signals, the Russians won't even know if they're actually under attack—it’ll just be noise. More importantly, it helps the drones; they're already such tiny, hard-to-spot targets that even a weak signal like that should be enough to guide them in, even from a distance.
It’s not just about the radar systems—there's way more to the story than that.
Comms interference, GPS jamming... it’s all happening again—just another day in this chaotic mess.

Maybe once they hand me those Tomahawks in a few years—if that ever actually happens.
The Navy’s looking at shifting how they handle things—more focus on distributed operations and getting those missile systems out there—basically trying to stop being such an easy target for long-range strikes. It's like moving from a single massive bullseye to a dozen smaller ones spread across the coast just to keep the enemy guessing.

I’ve got my doubts about how much punch those Growlers actually pack—so far, we haven't seen anything besides some pretty outdated Soviet-era gear.
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
Timothy Nelson5 said:We’ll just have to wait and see how impenetrable that Russian air defense actually is.

Word is the Americans are prepping an unprecedented level of electronic warfare for the upcoming fight in Ukraine. Maybe they'll have Growlers patrolling Romanian airspace and over the Black Sea, staying out of Ukrainian territory... And if NATO starts beefing up the fleet in the Black Sea on top of all that...

NATO ships can't just flood the Black Sea—Turkey has the Bosphorus closed to all warships under the Montreux Convention.

I'm skeptical about the Growler plan, too. Where they're positioned puts them maybe 400311 miles+ miles from the closest front in Donbas, and jamming intensity drops off fast as you get further away. If we start seeing fighting for Odessa or new battles near Mykolaiv, then maybe it makes sense.
Vietnam in World ·
fadedtinker36 said:Vietnam was clearly relieved by Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s remarks on July 13. He made it clear the USA isn't going to recognize any of Beijing's maritime claims involving contested areas like the Spratly Islands, Scarborough Shoal, Luconia Shoals, or Natuna Besar.

Does Vietnam actually expect the USA to back them up in a confrontation with the PRC?

It’s a massive shift in policy...
Especially considering the last time Vietnam went to war, it was against the PRC.
The logic holds up, though. Beijing is acting aggressive, and it’s only a matter of time before they lose it, just like Putin.

Vietnam should probably just start demanding war reparations from both sides—with interest. Whoever pays, wins.

All this talk about Vietnam making up with Americans and joining their camp has been going on for years, yet nothing ever happens. They haven't forgotten, though.
By the way, Pompeo hasn't been Secretary for a while now...

It makes sense—Beijing is moving aggressively, and it’s only a matter of time before they snap like Putin.

That claim gets pushed constantly, but it's pretty far from reality.

China mostly expands through soft power—mainly via the Belt and Road Initiative. They’re actually pretty quiet when it comes to military posturing (bases) or taking hard stances in conflicts, regardless of which bloc is leading.
You could call JKM a sort of economic zone encroachment, but it's not an occupation—it's just empty water and shoals that nobody cared about until they stuck a flag in the sand and dumped construction gear for their bases.

In the end, once you tally up all the American bases across the Indo-Pacific (plus a few rogue spots in the Middle East), it’s basically just the pot calling the kettle black.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Bailey5 said:Nah, I was actually talking about beefing up their foreign exchange reserves.

They cleared out the dollars—mostly the Treasury bonds, anyway—but they put way too much faith in the Euro.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Bailey5 said:Coal imports only make up about 3% of what the European Union brings in.
Most of that vodka actually comes from Finland. There was already a mess with that because consumers started boycotting it left and right without even realizing it wasn't even Russian.
Not sure about the timber situation.
With SWIFT, they managed to get it so that less than 50% of Finnish institutions are under sanctions.

Russia got kicked out of the UN Human Rights Council. I mean, they probably don't give a damn about that though...

This whole "step-by-step" approach just isn't working, I guess. You really gotta squeeze them hard if you want anything to happen.

For the first couple of weeks, the sanctions weren't incremental at all. They fired everything they could without causing a massive meltdown in the EU economy. Freezing those foreign exchange reserves—that was basically their 'nuclear option' for regime change.

So, contrary to the current narrative, they actually tried to squeeze them hard right out of the gate. It didn't stick. Putin navigated through that initial shock, people started adapting, and the ruble stabilized.

Now, we're left with either tiny scraps or moves that would be devastatingly painful for the EU itself—there's no more 'low-hanging fruit' left.

Though, looking at the latest massacre, I suspect whatever remains of their rationality will snap, leading to a sudden stop on buying gas, oil, coal, uranium (basically anything) from Russia.
If it's all just a masquerade anyway, fine. 🕺
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
slyfox43 said:It just invites a swarm of speculators who will inevitably flip these goods at massive markups later.

That’s just how solidarity works in the "Russian world."

But then again, I shouldn't be surprised you'd latch onto that like a fly to... 🤣

And that all boiled down to ________.
Between the boycotts hitting foreign companies in Russia and what the exporters and freight haulers are doing—it’s all part of the same mess.

That’s just how solidarity works in the Russian sphere—don't hold your breath.

Is that "world" really any different from ours? Not long ago, people in the wealthiest parts of America were practically brawling in the aisles over toilet paper.

How was I supposed to know you’d latch onto that like a fly on... 🤣

Just another day of being hit with those "what do you think?" suggestions—same old song and dance. 🤣 It’s not just me feeling the boredom—it's everyone.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Robert Barrett6 said:Contact lens shortages in America

https://lenta.ru/news/2022/04/07/linza/

Servers and hardware

https://www.cnews.ru/news/top/2022-0...evaet_defitsit

Paper

https://www.currenttime.tv/a/bumazhn.../31779756.html

Sugar

https://newizv.ru/news/economy/18-03-2022/produkt-osoboy-vazhnosti-pochemu-v-rossii-nachalsiya-defitsit-sahara

Diapers and pads

https://www.kommersant.ru/doc/5259462

Medicine

https://www.fontanka.ru/2022/03/22/70523984/

So, they're missing medicine, medical supplies, hygiene products, diapers, and even some basic food items.

A total tragicomedy—if you can even call this a success.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Bailey5 said:First your site was just straight-up hilarious, but now you're really leaning into those edgy references 😉

Maybe try getting your news from actual reliable sources for once.😉
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Bailey5 said:Nah, I think you're just being dense because you can't seem to tell the difference between actual information and the source that's feeding it to you.

If we're going to buy into this idea that SIG is wiring missiles to North Korea—which sounds pretty absurd—we're going to need something more substantial than some random tip from a Ukrainian outlet or an ex-Yukos dissident.

I didn't know who the guy was at first, but once I did, it just made me even more skeptical.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:🤣

How can one trust such a source when the individual was convicted by a dictator and criminal like Putin in a completely rigged trial? Is that not reason enough to doubt him?

I won't even dignify the omission of this specific detail from the Wikipedia page you linked with a comment.

In 2014, the Permanent Court of Arbitration ruling favored Nevzlin and other Yukos shareholders, calling the actions of the Russian state "a ruthless campaign to destroy Yukos and to expropriate its assets".

But clearly, that part is entirely irrelevant, isn't it? So much for your claims regarding a tendency toward disinformation. 😁

You jumped straight to defending crooks and massive oligarchs like Khodorkovsky or this whole situation.

They got exactly what they asked for. Honestly, if more of them ended up like that—take Abramovich, for example—it would be a win. At least their money doesn't stay sitting in London.

You're also dodging the main point, regardless of the specifics—which is that this guy has plenty of reason to push disinformation about Russia the second he gets a chance. Just like Khodorkovsky does because of his grudge against his own homeland.

Melissa Bailey5 said:First you thought Ukraine was just a joke, then once you realized where the info was coming from and googled Leonid Nevzlin, suddenly he's unreliable.🙄

👋

So I'm just lying and pushing propaganda? That guy is a joke too, much like any site that actually gives him a platform.
Learn to take everything with a grain of salt during a war. That means both the US and Russian sites.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Bailey5 said:that site is just reporting what Leonid Nevzlin actually said during his interview.

Is that guy?
Leonid Nevzlin—the guy at the center of that whole mess with Yukos—is basically a walking case study in how messy international business and politics get when they collide. After everything went down with the government seizing his assets, he ended up fighting back through the Permanent Court of Arbitration, which actually sided with him and the other shareholders, calling out the state's move as a calculated attempt to wipe out the company. It’s one of those classic stories where you see exactly how much leverage a massive corporation can have against a state, even after they've tried to tear it all down.
Looks like the guy from Yukos—sentenced in absentia—just bolted for Israel.

Probably just some unreliable source looking to spread misinformation—not exactly a gold standard for truth.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:Were those Russian fascist parades through Berlin not considered excessive?

Even without using the word "fascist"—and I'd rather stay out of that lane—they definitely aren't appropriate.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Dennis Price said:Well, at least ten thousand Russians have been shot already.

Nice spin.👍
Most of them actually died from explosions.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Melissa Bailey5 said:Leonid Nevzlin, who used to run that Yukos oil firm, just gave an interview where he claimed that Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu has been making trips over to North Korea and China, basically begging for missiles because Russia is running dry on them—apparently, they can't even replace their own stock since 70-80% of their parts are sourced from abroad.
China wouldn't even give him the time of day!

I guess we finally figured out why Shoigu hasn't been showing his face in public lately.

Just some joke of a Ukrainian website—apparently they're the ones who know all about Shoigu heading to North Korea for rockets. 😂

Deutsche Bank is denying services to people of Russian descent, calling it "excessive":

As long as nobody actually shoots anyone over this hysteria, I guess we're still doing okay.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
slyfox43 said:The UN has nothing to do with this, and bringing them up here just shows you don't really grasp how international law actually functions.

Russia has already seized tens of billions just by seizing aircraft. They aren't exactly citing legal precedents, of course—they just passed that nationalization law recently and called it a day. But sure, we can pretend it’s all about vital national interests, even if there isn't much flying happening anymore...

I haven't heard a peep about them offering any compensation, not even from their own frozen assets. Have you?

Well, it would be more meaningful if something came from a UN resolution rather than just from Germany.

Under what universal legal framework would German, EU, or even G7 laws have jurisdiction over compensating Russia to Ukraine (which isn't even part of the EU)? Or are they just going to declare themselves the sole arbiters? There’s a term for that: a "kangaroo court."

In my view, sanctions have spiraled out of control, and we need to start regulating them through international organizations. It's a utopia, though—the people weaponizing them aren't exactly going to volunteer for oversight—but it's the only way to make the UN relevant again. Bypassing them feels a lot like what happened with the League of Nations in the late '30s.

Regarding the planes, I agree there's no solid legal ground. But then again, that goes for the sanctions and freezes imposed earlier too.
You basically answered your own question on why it was done this way—it's a matter of national interest to maintain air links with remote parts of Russia. They just need to figure out how to service planes, like Iran does. If one goes down—with passengers on board—everyone will blame the ban on spare parts for civil aviation. A sadistic move where nobody actually wins.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
slyfox43 said:

A quick little head start.

The essence remains unchanged.
It’s far more compelling to look at how a similar maneuver might play out in another advanced democracy, perhaps using slightly strained legal gymnastics to frame it as some sort of necessary compensation for whatever happened first.
Even if things get a little tight, we’ll still manage to pull together for our first scouting trip.

You mentioned earlier that they really ought to focus on securing ownership.

I am.

The situation remains steady, much like a slow-moving tide that eventually reshapes the entire shoreline without making any sudden noise.
It really comes down to management, doesn't it?
Because that is simply how things stand. It feels somewhat heavy, doesn't it? Like watching a slow sunset over a quiet landscape, where the light just gradually fades until everything becomes a bit more somber. I’m sticking to that. I have no intention of lying; I have certain standards to maintain.

Ownership issues need to be resolved within a reasonable timeframe, likely involving some form of compensation—though, of course, any such settlement remains subject to current legal sanctions. Looking back, this was a situation that should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. But then again, I wasn't consulted, so what can you do?

The conversation seems to have hit a bit of a lull, hasn't it? It’s almost like watching a slow-moving river settle after a heavy rain—quiet, steady, and waiting for the next current to move things along.
All things considered, it seems we both share the same intuition regarding the ultimate trajectory of this situation—a slow, systematic erosion of private ownership. Without any compensation whatsoever..
A quick bit of pioneering work.

To get ahead of this: I firmly believe any compensation payouts should be funneled into an escrow account first. From there, the funds ought to be distributed among everyone harmed by the Russian Federation based on the legal proceedings—we shouldn't be playing games by pretending Gazprom is some private entity. If there happens to be anything left over, though looking at the situation in Ukraine, that seems like a slim possibility, the surplus should simply be returned to Russia once sanctions are lifted and assets are unfrozen.

We certainly wouldn't want to reach a point where we find ourselves prioritizing the legal protections of mass murderers, rapists, and kidnappers over the actual rights and dignity of their victims.
A quick little head start.

The essence remains unchanged.
It’s far more compelling to look at how a similar maneuver might play out in another advanced democracy, perhaps using slightly strained legal gymnastics to frame it as some sort of necessary compensation for whatever happened first.
Even if things get a little tight, we’ll still manage to pull together for our first scouting trip.

You mentioned earlier that they really ought to focus on securing ownership.

I am.

The situation remains steady, much like a slow-moving tide that eventually reshapes the entire shoreline without making any sudden noise.
It really comes down to management, doesn't it?
Because that is simply how things stand. It feels somewhat heavy, doesn't it? Like watching a slow sunset over a quiet landscape, where the light just gradually fades until everything becomes a bit more somber. I’m sticking to that. I have no intention of lying; I have certain standards to maintain.

Ownership issues need to be resolved within a reasonable timeframe, likely involving some form of compensation—though, of course, any such settlement remains subject to current legal sanctions. Looking back, this was a situation that should never have been allowed to happen in the first place. But then again, I wasn't consulted, so what can you do?

The conversation seems to have hit a bit of a lull, hasn't it? It’s almost like watching a slow-moving river settle after a heavy rain—quiet, steady, and waiting for the next current to move things along.
All things considered, it seems we both share the same intuition regarding the ultimate trajectory of this situation—a slow, systematic erosion of private ownership. Without any compensation whatsoever..
A quick bit of pioneering work.

To get ahead of this: I firmly believe any compensation payouts should be funneled into an escrow account first. From there, the funds ought to be distributed among everyone harmed by the Russian Federation based on the legal proceedings—we shouldn't be playing games by pretending Gazprom is some private entity. If there happens to be anything left over, though looking at the situation in Ukraine, that seems like a slim possibility, the surplus should simply be returned to Russia once sanctions are lifted and assets are unfrozen.

We certainly wouldn't want to reach a point where we find ourselves prioritizing the legal protections of mass murderers, rapists, and kidnappers over the actual rights and dignity of their victims.
Without the UN, there isn't really a solid, unbiased legal framework for this kind of thing. That said, it doesn't sound like a bad idea—maybe direct some of it to the families in Ukraine and the disabled victims.

The Russians will almost certainly retaliate by seizing an equivalent amount of German (or EU and USA) assets within Russia. If they do, they might as well use those funds for their own victims and those in the Donbas.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·

slyfox43 said:Sure, you can keep whining here about those "ideologically driven interpretations of the truth," but let's be real—whether you call it nationalization or "eminent domain" in the US, that legal principle exists in every organized society. And naturally, it always comes with compensation for the former owner and a legitimate need to serve a critical public interest.

You didn't mention the nationalization of Venezuela's entire private oil industry in the same breath as the "expropriation of Citgo," which happened for... well, reasons that are obvious to me, if not to you. Doesn't that ever get tiring?

In any case, what we're looking at right now is "management," not outright ownership.

In the EU-US, you’re seeing this happen more and more—just seizing things without even bothering to compensate the former owners.

[No text provided to rewrite]
You didn't mention the nationalization of Venezuela's entire private oil industry in the same breath as the "expropriation of Citgo"—for reasons that should be obvious to anyone paying attention. Does that ever get old for you?
Why bother bringing up Venezuela and Hugo Chávez? We all know that was just straight-up communist-style expropriation in a developing nation—basically a textbook case. It’s way more interesting to look at a similar move made in another advanced democracy, where they use some pretty stretched legal gymnastics to try and frame it as "compensation" for the first mess. And even if they hadn't pulled that stunt, would Juan Guaidó have stood a chance? 🙄

[No content provided to rewrite.]
Besides, we’re talking about "control" right now—not actual ownership.
First you were talking about ownership, now it’s all about management—funny how that works. At the end of the day, I think we both see where this is heading—it's just a slow slide toward seizing assets without paying a dime.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
slyfox43 said:It's likely a tactical play to finally fill up storage facilities instead of keeping them artificially empty like they have been for the past year.

There is a massive difference between relying heavily on a single supplier—especially one like Russia—and the sheer level of idiocy required to let that same supplier maintain ownership over strategic energy reserves...

Solving a lack of strategic reserves (infrastructure) through seizures? Just the American way... reminds me of what happened with Citgo.

Maybe they should try building something themselves for a change.
They've even got those hidden pockets up in northern Germany—so there's your solution for gas and oil.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
rowdyraven112 said:Maybe it isn't. Some idiot at BuzzFeed just posted that toilet paper prices are spiking. If it is an April Fools' prank, it'll just fool the morons who rush out to buy a year's supply of paper when they don't need to. Either way, prices will go up because of market shortages, not because of anything logical like raw material costs or shipping. Look at the masks during the pandemic—people were reselling them on Facebook for 100x the price. I needed masks before the outbreak hit. They were like thirty cents a pop. ☕I never hoarded; I just bought what I needed week to week.

Same goes for the rubles. All it takes is for someone to believe the hype and start paying in ☕

Since our media is already drowning in Soviet-style propaganda these days (bljutarnji, Imbex), they might as well ban these April Fools' pranks. Though, knowing them, they'll probably ban the truth about economic struggles soon too—can't have anyone questioning the "wise" policies of the European Union.

Looks like the gas flow to Latvia has been cut off. Unless I’ve once again taken something completely out of context, like I did with Slovack (my bad...).
edit: link

The Baltic states mostly rely on Russian gas. That’s probably why the "evil gnome" targeted them first—it’s not a coincidence, especially given how vocal their hostility has been lately, not to mention the arrests of YouTubers just for supporting Putin’s troops.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
The rumors about paying for gas in rubles are starting to swirl:

https://www.tweet247.net/news/russia...er-russia-ties
Slovakia mentioned they're actually open to buying gas from Russia using rubles.

"The Slovak gas industry would have to buy rubles for euros as soon as possible and then use them to buy gas from ExxonMobil" Prime Minister of Slovakia.

Yeah, right—unless it's April Fool's Day.