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Posts by David Torres2

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Timothy Kim9 said:I think the USA and the EU are playing the long game—slowly strangling Russia.
Kind of like an anaconda.
From what I can tell, they’ve made a decent start—about 30% in just a month.
And those sanctions? They'll likely drag on for years.

The EU won't actually be able to do anything until they sort out the whole Russian gas situation; otherwise, everything else is just window dressing for the public.
If Europe had been smart and started moving away from Russian gas seven years ago, they could have pulled off a total
isolation of Russia by now.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Austria is sticking with Russian gas, which honestly makes total sense if you think about it.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:This is bottom-tier stuff; there isn't any actual depth to your argument.

Making this happen anytime soon? Yeah, that's just not happening.
It's like trying to use a cocktail umbrella as a parachute while you're freefalling.
Look, if the big shots running the major US corporations are saying they're in a bind, then the conversation is over. Period.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
David Torres2 said:the whole industry is sitting on about 20 billion cubic meters

Just translate the article yourselves and you'll see exactly what kind of mess we're in and what's coming down the pipe.

Oh, I totally forgot to mention
1 billion cubic meters = ~37681 TJ

Out of the total 55 billion cubic meters, about 35% goes to Industry, 50% to heating, and the remaining 15% goes toward electricity.

The primary power providers
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
analogbear5 said:Since you're clearly sitting on the data, why don't you enlighten us? Who's actually most dependent on Russian gas? I'm talking specifics—how much of residential heating, which industries, or which power plants are hooked on it.

the whole industry is sitting on about 20 billion cubic meters

Just translate the article yourselves and you'll see exactly what kind of mess we're in and what's coming down the pipe.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:Yeah, look—up until February 24th, everyone was terrified of provoking Russia. They just didn't believe an actual invasion was coming—that much is obvious. Then, two days later, the entire political landscape did a complete 180.

Everything. 🙂 (Once I track down the link, I'll drop it back in here.)

Current suppliers—as it stands.
2) domestic reserves
3) LNG capacity limits
4) coal
5) cutting back on consumption
6) renewable energy sources
7) Mass electrification of transport—because clearly, we haven't had enough sudden shifts to deal with lately.
8) Heat pumps in apartment buildings—now that's an interesting one.
9) Guessing when they’ll finally pull the plug on the nuclear plants.

EDIT: So, there you have it—155 billion cubic meters of gas. That’s the entire Russian import volume for a single year right there.
https://twitter.com/mark_lynas/statu...82300901900292

I’m feeling a little optimistic about this—but hey, it might actually work.

Honestly, you can pretty much forget about every single one of those nine points right now. German politicians haven't even started moving on this, and there’s zero political will. They’re still sleeping on the job.

We need gas for heating, electricity, industry, and even food—since we need it for fertilizer—all while inflation (on paper, anyway) is already sitting at 7.5 percent.

Wholesale gas prices are 20 times higher than they were back in the spring of 2020, and electricity is up 8 times compared to 2020. The CFO over at Exelon just casually announced that those costs are going to have to be passed down to consumers,
depending on how much they manage to stock up on reserves this summer and what kind of price they grab.👍

Over here in Austria, electricity prices jumped another 20% starting back in May.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
David Torres2 said:An "insider" just told Reuters that the EU is looking to completely shut down coal imports from Russia.

So, they’re really going all the way on this one.

For anyone who wants a decent translation instead of just relying on Google Translate, you should grab imtranslator for your Firefox browser.
It gives you a really solid translation from English or German into American English.
Just highlight a sentence or a few of them, click the little button that pops up, and boom—you've got your translation.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:Fair enough...

But honestly, the way people exaggerate the role of Germany and the rest of Europe has reached mythic proportions at this point. Sure, the Germans didn't account for the possibility of Russian gas supplies being cut off—that was a bad call, poor projections, and maybe just getting too comfortable with the status quo. It was a mistake (driven by a craving for cheap energy), and now they're paying for it with massive utility bills.

What role, and in what capacity exactly?
Where did I say any of them were actually responsible for the war? Honestly, we’re just pointing fingers at this point.
It all comes down to how much we're relying on Russian gas. Honestly, I don't know how people are making this such a complicated issue. It’s pretty straightforward if you think about it.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:Oh, please—give me a break. The European Union is headed straight for a cliff. 🤦 The European Union is likely to come out of this stronger than ever—certainly not falling apart anytime soon.

The LNG terminals? Sure, those are happening. Existing thermal plants? Absolutely. But building new ones? Yeah, don't hold your breath—that’s definitely not on the agenda.

I always get the feeling from you that you're constantly taking things out of context.
It's the same deal with fossil fuels over there.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:They buried themselves by becoming totally dependent on Russian gas while simultaneously walking away from fossil fuels.🤔

Sure, killing off nuclear power was a massive blunder... but that's what the public asked for, so they got exactly what they wanted.

Coal
There’s also the option where we just drill for our own gas, right?

So, we're talking bringing back nuclear + building a bunch of new ones (just like the Frenchmen are doing)
Massive construction of new LNG thermal power plants
LNG terminals to import from elsewhere + the possibility of starting to drill for our own gas

Maximize all of that, and then you can slap sanctions on the Russians whenever you feel like it.
The Russians definitely have other buyers for their gas and oil, but they lack the tech—and they won't get it from the Chinese either. The Chinese have realized by now that they're just acting as a crutch for the Russians, which actually puts the Russians right in their hands.

Unfortunately, Europe doesn't have politicians who look past their next term, whereas the Chinese think in terms of generations.
The collapse of the European Union will be its salvation.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
An "insider" just told Reuters that the EU is looking to completely shut down coal imports from Russia.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:Hyperbole much?

Back in 1990, the German military had over half a million soldiers, 2,000 Leopard 2s, 2,500 Leopard 1s, hundreds of F-4 Phantoms and Tornadoes, ballistic missiles, and so on. They were a cornerstone of NATO's defense for Western Europe.

But, like everyone else in Europe, they slashed their budgets drastically during the 90s and beyond.

As far as the military goes right now? They’re hitting rock bottom. They’re lacking in every single department, and the red tape is absolutely killing them, not to mention the incompetent politicians running the show. But mostly, I was trying to describe how German politics has basically failed across the board here.
Merkel really dug their grave by ditching fossil fuels and nuclear power at the same time. Now, Putin is basically treating the strongest nation in Europe like a joke because all other options are off the table. Honestly, serves them right!
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:They essentially turned a blind eye to Putin's war in Georgia, the murder of Litvinenko, Politskajev, and the German operative, the poisoning of Skripal, the poisoning and imprisonment of Navalny, the poisoning of Karim Masaud, the daylight assassination of Kangošvili in a park in Berlin, the millions of war crimes and the destruction of hospitals across Syria, the annexation of Crimea, the orchestration and incitement of the war in Donbas, and the downing of MH17 which claimed hundreds of European lives, and so on and so forth.

Forgive me if I say this, but Chamberlain looks like a saint compared to Merkel and her brand of appeasement.

Not only did they prove themselves to be naive fools, but because of NS2, they effectively threw all the Baltic states under the bus—including Poland and several other Eastern European nations, not to mention the USA. In short, they dismantled the cohesion within the EU simply because it served their own interests, all at the behest of criminal Russia.

What has transpired here is a massive disgrace and a slap in the face to German leadership within the EU, one from which they won't recover for the next twenty years—unless they fundamentally shift their policy toward a firmer stance against China, though I suspect they will likely end up being a disruptive force there as well.

You guys really glossed over the whole German situation.
The reality is that after WW2, Germany gave up all military ambitions and basically put themselves
entirely in the hands of America, who defended them and even fed them when Stalin blocked Berlin.
The Germans have always tried to dodge paying into the NATO treasury; they figured they could get a better deal by playing Russia, and they essentially surrendered all their agency to Putin's whims.
Even when Trump, and later Biden, threatened to scrap NS2, Merkel stayed firm—probably thinking that one day, Putin would just bypass Berlin entirely. There were plenty of voices in Germany warning that this exact thing would happen.

Let's look at a scenario where this war starts after the gas starts flowing through NS2, and Putin begins blackmailing them—either cutting it off or squeezing them dry.
If it weren't for America today, the Germans would be in the same boat as Poland, yet today they're spitting on Americans.🤦

Anyway, just so you know: euphemism and finger-pointing are two specialties of the German masters!
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Gerald Chavez7 said:So, we’re looking at the absolute worst global recession in history—coming right on the heels of that COVID-induced slump (which hit -10% if you want to get technical) and a full decade after the last major global meltdown. If we're talking worst-case scenarios, Germany might see things dip to around 3%, but for the rest of the European Union? It would almost certainly be much lower than that. The idea that Germany’s energy policy was a strategic masterstroke—until it wasn't—is a tough pill to swallow. Looking back at how things played out, it feels like we're analyzing a slow-motion train wreck where everyone thought they were driving in the right direction until the tracks just... ended. The reliance on cheap gas wasn't just a business decision; it became a fundamental pillar of their entire economic identity. It’s one of those situations where you build your whole house on a foundation that turns out to be made of sand. When the geopolitical landscape shifted, the sheer scale of the vulnerability became impossible to ignore. It wasn't just about high bills; it was about realizing that the engine powering one of the world's largest economies was essentially plugged into a single, unpredictable outlet. It’s easy to point fingers now, but at the time, the logic seemed sound enough to satisfy most analysts. You go with the cheapest, most reliable source available—that's just basic math, right? Turns out, in global politics, math doesn't always account for someone pulling the plug just to see what happens. Now, the transition isn't just an environmental necessity; it's a desperate scramble to find a new way to keep the lights on without being held hostage by a single supplier. It’s a messy, expensive lesson in why diversification matters more than a good quarterly report.

It’s definitely Poland. A handful of former Eastern Bloc members—like the Czech Republic, Slovakia, Poland, and Canada—have already made their move. Wealthy nations—those high-income players on the global stage..

This graph is actually pretty fascinating:
image

Yeah, maybe 3%... but only if they keep the gas flowing like they have been.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Christian Torres3 said:The question was "find a country that emerged from communism and is thriving." It’s not like things are bad for Poles; if we're struggling, who's to blame? We're the ones choosing these criminal organizations.

And there's your answer:
It was much easier to develop a nation between 1945 and 1990 than it is now. I think you probably realize that. Even the Italians managed to pull it off back then.😁

Anyway, let's not ruin the vibe—let's get back to Ukraine.

She's also arguing that after the Soviet Union collapsed, a lot of highly educated people left—
mostly Ashkenazi families moving to the US and Israel, with a second wave hitting in the late 90s.
Now, this situation is going to finish them off for good.
That’s why, in my experience, whoever takes power here just leads us straight downhill.

Personally, I see this as a massive opportunity for the US to take in maybe 100,000 to 150,000 Ukrainians and settle them down. We could give them farmland to fill up all those empty stretches in the Midwest and the Central Coast. Give it 50 years, and they'll be fully assimilated.

I've already posted this over on the refugee issue thread.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Christian Torres3 said:The Czech Republic?

If they had been part of the West after WW2, they’d probably be stronger than Austria by now.
I mean, look at them—they're tucked right there between Germany and Austria, kind of like how Tennessee sits in the middle of everything, or even looking at how much certain other states are thriving lately.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Douglas Sanchez5 said:Now, look, mature political elites actually know what’s best for their nation—they can think long-term and run a proper cost-benefit analysis. Take the Finns, for example—they were willing to accept losing some territory and let the Soviets dictate their foreign policy during the Cold War, all to build up their nation for the long haul.

I don't think anyone in their right mind would argue that ending this war immediately—with all the extra deaths, crimes, and total destruction it would bring—is any better than waiting 15 years for Russia's energy leverage to crumble and for Putin to finally kick the bucket. Not just because of the direct leverage on the EU, but because the whole economic system based on raw material exports might collapse, potentially leading to a democratized Russia. Honestly, when personalized regimes face structural economic shifts, it’s actually the perfect recipe and opportunity to overhaul the entire system!
They knew Putin was personally obsessed with Ukraine. So, a slightly later entry into the EU or a bit slower economic growth? That's definitely a better trade-off than facing an economic meltdown that takes 15 years to recover from (just to get back to pre-war poverty levels), not to mention the lives lost and the physical and mental trauma inflicted on everyone involved.

If Zelenskyy had been more strategic, he should have just told his people the truth about the terrible choice they were facing regarding Minsk 2. Or, alternatively, he should have prepared them for war—mobilizing and training people from month eleven onward. He needed to send a clear message: it’s either Minsk 2 or it’s war. And he should've explained *why* Minsk 2 was the lesser of two evils. Maybe then the Russians wouldn't have thought they could just swoop in and take Kyiv in three days using shock tactics.

While the intelligence community was screaming about Russian troop buildups, the media coverage in Ukraine was busy obsessing over Eurovision! People were sleeping through it, thinking Putin was just bluffing. That's way too big a risk when you're leading a nation. But hey, now it's all Merkel's fault, while he acts like he's done nothing wrong at all!

I guess Zelenskyy thought Ukraine was too important for the West to just sit by while the Russians attacked. But honestly, I don't know what the average Ukrainian felt about the Russians before all this kicked off, or if even the Minsk 2 option was ever truly on the table.
Putin has crossed the Rubicon here. There's no turning back now; from this point on, it's nothing but victory or bust.

And there's really no point in dismissing Finland as an option. After WW2, they had plenty of time to build up their nation just like the rest of Western Europe. Seriously, try finding me one single country that emerged from communism and is thriving today.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Paul Anderson7 said:I agree that we can't just stop buying oil and gas overnight, but we really need to go all-in on developing alternative sources and keeping our imports from Russia at the absolute bare minimum.
We also shouldn't cave to the idea of paying in Rubles; if Russia decides to cut us off because we won't play that game, then fine, let Putin be the one to make that move.

As it stands, the current energy bans aren't doing much to provide immediate relief for Ukraine, and honestly, they might actually end up hurting public sympathy and the overall sense of unity within the European Union.

Regarding that whole Ruble payment issue? It’s useless to them. Seriously, absolutely nothing. The Russians can't go out and buy anything with it anyway. Even their friends in China aren't going to swap Rubles for hard currency.

That's why I think Putin’s little decision was actually aimed at something else entirely—basically squeezing his own oligarchs. He's making them illiquid.

Their Dollars and Euros are frozen, and frankly, Ruble nobody cares about.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
George Robinson43 said:In two years, gas will only be a necessity for Germany and Austria. Other nations will have transitioned by 2023. Of course, Canada has already made its choice to stand with Russia.

If that scenario actually plays out, in two years we won't even recognize where Germany used to be on the map. Honestly, I think the gas will keep flowing, but we really need to push for independence from Russian gas and oil as fast as possible, no matter what it takes.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Bryan Booth82 said:Let's be real: Germany never even had a significant reliance on nuclear power plants to begin with.
Right now, they could easily extend the operation of three plants for another year, or alternatively, sink that capital into refurbishing them and replacing the nuclear fuel to keep them running for the next five years.
There are discussions happening about these options, but let's face it—this isn't exactly some massive Game Changers move, is it? 🤔

Best regards,


Nothing is a "game changer" when you're already breathing through a straw. They had plenty of time to prepare.