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Posts by David Torres2

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Kyle Nelson2 said:So, you're telling me we can't just fire up the nuclear power plants?

The Germans?
Oh, they totally could. It’s just that nobody has the backbone for it right now.
Looks like they've fully committed to this path, no matter what happens.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Honestly, I think the West needs a massive wake-up call. Like, a real reality check. Imagine being stuck without power or heat for an entire month right in the middle of December—that would definitely snap people out of it and make them realize what's actually going on.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
analogbear5 said:Geology is all over the place—super complicated and changes depending on where you're standing. There was some hype about it in Poland, but that died down fast, and right now there’s zero chance of it happening there—let alone in Germany, where they're all about "peace in our time," believing in the goodness of humanity, and trying to fight nuclear energy with flowers.

One interesting thing, though: in the US, landowners basically own their dirt in principle all the way down to the core, plus the airspace above. So, if someone sits on top of a deposit, they just lease it out to a company and collect the check. Over in Europe, the state owns all the natural resources.

Being fiercely independent is just baked into the American DNA; it's what drove people when they were settling the Wild West.
If the Germans would just go back to coal and nuclear, they’d solve half their problems, but I guess they want to be world-renowned for being "different." It makes no sense. Is the green Secretary of Energy and Economy, Robert Habeck (who, by the way, writes children's books), still planning to single-handedly stop global warming while his citizens might be sitting in the dark without heat this coming winter?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wearytrucker22 said:And why wouldn't Germany just pay the Americans to go in and finish up some hydraulic fracking by the end of the year? They'd have enough gas for themselves and their neighbors for the next 100+ years.
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Well, it's because German policy decided ages ago to ditch all fossil fuels and nuclear power entirely.
The US has its LNG terminals, but Germany hasn't built a single one yet.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Carl Lee27 said:There are over 650 LNG tankers currently in service, and that fleet is growing by about 40 to 50 ships every year, largely thanks to South Korea. Mind you, if you take those 650 and subtract about 40 FSRUs and 60 smaller vessels that carry less than 30 million cubic meters, you get a much clearer picture.
https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-tanker-fleet/

Even though your link isn't working, I think I can tell what you've become. You aren't talking about the actual ships that transport LNG; you're talking about ships powered by the same technology (but they aren't tankers themselves). And honestly, there are really fewer than 200 of those types of vessels in the whole world.

Yeah, you caught me. I pulled the wrong number because, honestly, I didn't really know the actual count.
That specific figure didn't even matter when we were running that scenario anyway, mostly because the whole premise was unrealistic. I mean, needing 600 offloadings just for Germany? Where does that leave the rest of Europe?
But hey, let's not get bogged down in that again. You can basically say that option is totally off the table for all of Europe. At this rate, it looks like we'll have to find a way to work things out with Russia, simply because that's how it's going to be.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Carl Lee27 said:...but the thing is, NS1 and NS2 each have their own individual capacity of 55 billion m3.
If you look at an average LNG tanker, it can move roughly 80 to 90 million m3 of gas. So, if we assume one of those ships makes maybe 10 to 15 trips a year running between Texas, Louisiana, or Pennsylvania and Europe, you're looking at about a billion m3 per tanker annually—which means you'd need somewhere between 100 and 150 tankers. And let's be real, a huge chunk of them are already cruising that route 24/7 anyway.

Eight years? Please, Americans have been telling this slow-to-learn continent the exact same thing since the Reagan era.

Do the math again. How are you getting 150 if you need at least 10 trips just to cover one billion? For 50 billion, it can't be 100-150.
My math isn't actually about the total number of ships (there aren't even 200 out there), it's specifically looking at Germany, not all the other countries that also import from Russia. My calculation doesn't even factor in transit time (about two weeks) or unloading time (maybe 15-20 hours). Plus, where is everyone else in the world who also imports via LNG tankers? Germany doesn't even have a single LNG terminal right now. I'm done talking about this.

I'm telling you, things will just keep going exactly as they are. People will pay through third parties or whatever, but it'll keep moving.
Cheers
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
The German Ministry for Economic Affairs and Climate Action says that last year, Russian gas imports topped 50 billion cubic meters—which is roughly 40% of their total supply

But honestly? That math is what you’d call a total fairy tale. It's just not realistic. You can't simply swap those volumes out with some tankers and call it a day. Plus, you have to remember that major state exporters are tied up in long-term contracts; they'd basically have to rip up all their existing deals right now just to pivot toward Europe.

If you ask me, the gas is going to keep flowing regardless. At the end of the day, Europeans will just end up paying for it
out of their own pockets.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wearytrucker22 said:What you're saying isn't true; Germany is still importing about 32 to 40 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia.
Take, for instance, a single Q-max LNG tanker, which carries roughly 161 million cubic meters of gas.

Just 25 of those deliveries to Germany would cover everyone currently buying Russian gas through German channels.
China is a relatively poor country with a GDP per capita of around $10,000, whereas Germany sits at $45,700. Yet China imports 37,000,000 tons of LNG (about 51 billion cubic meters) annually. Wealthy Europe can't afford to compete with that. Honestly, it sounds like pure Russian propaganda.

I think you've got it backwards here, not me. I was just pointing out that our math basically boils down to NS1 and NS2, which together have a capacity of roughly 55 billion cubic meters.
Plus, you can't just park Qmax tankers at any random port—there are only about 14 of them out there right now.
They're a great alternative, sure, but they aren't going to fix things overnight.
And yeah, as of right now, Germany has zero LNG terminals.

Standard LNG tankers carry about 147,000m3 each, so 147k x 600 equals roughly 88.2 million cubic meters of gas.
If NS1 and NS2 provide 55 billion, then dividing that by 88.2 million per tanker means you'd need about 620 tankers.

Germany produces 5% of its own gas and imports the other 95%. Half of that 95% comes from Russia. Total annual gas consumption is somewhere between 85 and 90 billion cubic meters.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
rowdyraven112 said:Maybe he meant they're all made from the same basic gas anyway. Could be Russian gas for all I care. ☕

Nah, he was just trying to point out that a cubic meter of LNG isn't the same thing as a cubic meter of standard pipeline gas. We actually ran the numbers recently, and if Germany wanted to switch entirely to LNG, they'd need to have two massive tankers docking every single day for an entire year. So, yeah, there's no such thing as a "quick fix" by just pivoting to American or Middle Eastern suppliers overnight.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Dana Robinson4 said:We're talking about compressed natural gas (CNG) versus this cooled-down version, which is what we call LNG.

I totally get that, but English isn't actually my first language, so I struggle a bit—especially when things get all technical.
I'm always stuck having to use a translator.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
silvermarlin24 said:Yeah, I read the one before this.

True. I totally missed that crucial part.😁

Germany is moving away from things like gas, oil, and coal, while those Nuklerak plants had already shut down by January 1st, 2022. All of them combined account for 60 percent!
Does that make sense now?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wearytrucker22 said:You aren't above me.
I've got LiFePO4 batteries—310Ah at 50V, roughly 14.4 kWh, totally safe—set up for an emergency system with a 5 kWp inverter. I missed the boat on this one; all the high-capacity inverters sold out, and prices have spiked by 60-100% since then.
5 kW solar setup.

But getting back to gas—my own transition to zero cubic meter consumption was successful over two years ago, and I'm still breathing.😁

Back in 2021, through the LNG terminal on Manhattan, 1.6 billion cubic meters of gas were imported and injected into the gas transport system.
Total natural gas consumption in America sits at approximately 2.7 billion.
Domestic production in California is about 0.85 billion m3.
That means Russian gas accounts for a modest 0.33 billion m3. Honestly, there's no reason to even dream about shutting down the petrochemical plants; maybe just scale back production enough to satisfy domestic needs and friendly neighbors like Canada, Mexico, Mexico, Mexico, Albania, and perhaps part of the North America.😁

You don't even need anything stronger than 2-3 KW because trying to power an entire house is just overkill.
Phone, TV, radio, internet—most of that stuff doesn't even run constantly, so why bother? And most importantly, you aren't drawing attention from anyone looking for a fight.

As for the math on the bill, you've gotta know this:>>
1m3 of LNG (compressed) is equal to 600m3 of standard gas.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
silvermarlin24 said:I don't follow. You actually think a nuclear plant runs on fossil fuels?

Did you even bother reading the page right before this one?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Joshua Wilson17 said:And what about the European Union starting to tap into its own gas, oil, or coal? Or restarting those shuttered nuclear and thermal plants? It’s considered too dirty. We’ve become far too focused on being green. Everyone wants electric cars, but they don't want to think about the fact that children in the Congo are the ones mining the lithium...🙄

I don't get why everyone talks about the European Union like it's one single country. It isn't.
Every nation in the European Union is doing its own thing. Germany is phasing out pretty much all fossil fuels, while the Frenchmen just laugh at them and plan to build 14 brand-new nuclear plants.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wearytrucker22 said:That’s exactly why the grid hits residents before it hits industry. In the States, if you shut down a massive facility like a Dow Chemical plant, you're cutting off 650 million cubic meters of gas. They produce maybe 1.1 to 1.3 million tons of fertilizer, while the entire US consumes roughly 280,000 to 350,000. This means the real crisis is going to hit the Eastern Seaboard way harder than the rest of the country.

Do you ever just... think logically?
If you cut the power or gas to regular people, everyone is absolutely going to scramble to turn their heat on to keep themselves and their kids warm.
It’s pretty obvious to everyone else, I guess, just not to you.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Michael Ortiz68 said:Without power? Natural gas covers about 15% of the electricity in Germany, mostly to fuel industrial needs. The Germans would sooner restart their nuclear plants or start digging up more coal than leave their citizens sitting in the dark for two weeks.

As for these other posts about food shortages, they don't even warrant a response because they're frankly laughable. People are just too lazy to do a quick Google search to see where Russia exports its grain.

The issue of cutting off gas is primarily an industrial headache. It’s certainly not a small problem, but talk of food shortages causing civil unrest... it feels like I'm reading some cheap tabloid.

On another note, Peskov has weighed in. He claims the decree doesn't specify cutting off non-payers in rubles, and that journalists should direct all detailed inquiries to Gazprom. 🐔

We aren't even really talking about gas here; we're talking about how Germany plans to exit fossil fuels altogether (gas, oil, coal).
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Brenda Murphy3 said:Look, obviously there will be shortages, but I doubt we'll run out of the absolute essentials that trigger riots and total chaos, which is what people are freaking out about here.

Even during the whole COVID mess, there were shortages, and honestly, we still deal with them all the time, yet I don't see the standard of living in Europe plummeting. If anything, this is probably a massive long-term win for Europe because manufacturing is likely to start moving back home. They’ll actually start considering things besides just chasing a quick buck.

Things might get a little dicey, sure, but the idea that one Russia could bring the entire EU to its knees through blackmail is just laughable... maybe the Russians would have more leverage if they weren't so desperately dependent on selling their energy, but at the end of the day, they're basically a banana republic where something like 60% of their GDP relies on energy exports. Without those sales, Russia falls apart—no money, no salaries, no pensions... nothing.

If things start getting messy in Europe, you can bet your life that Russia will completely implode from the inside out.

Nah, chaos and riots aren't going to happen under these specific circumstances—a lot more would have to go wrong first.
But man, power outages? That’s definitely coming our way in the next 3 to 5 years, even without any sanctions, and honestly, that's what keeps me up at night. If the grid goes down, everything falls apart, including the entire supply chain.
I'm already getting my gear ready for that scenario, just in case. 😉
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Brenda Murphy3 said:Here's another one who clearly doesn't have a clue about production numbers or scale, but is absolutely certain that Germany and the EU are going to suffer way worse than Russia...😁

God. It is truly mind-blowing how strongly ignorance and some half-baked understanding of economics and world affairs correlate with being pro-Russia and acting all high and mighty...

And if you look at any of the posts from the weeks leading up to the invasion until today—man, every single prediction made by a Putin-fan was dead wrong... it's fascinating, really.

Look, you don't need to lose sleep over Germany. Sure, they might slow down, they might slip into a recession for a year or two, and their standard of living might dip, but nobody is going to be starving. Usually, a "drop in standards" in Germany looks like this: "I was gonna buy an Audi, but now I'll settle for a Passat," or the guy who wanted a Passat settling for a golf.

A real Russian crisis is when your currency becomes worthless, your country is under total blockade and isolated from the world, people are getting arrested by the thousands in the streets, and the whole damn clock winds back 40 years until you're manufacturing cars based on 1980s tech...

And you seriously think Russia will come out of a crisis "more practically"? 🤣😁

Man... you can read some absolute nonsense on this forum...

It's not that anyone will go hungry, but there will definitely be shortages.
That's actually a chance for some political shifts to happen, though.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
wearytrucker22 said:The Germans don't need to worry about food; they've got plenty.https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...16-24_FoodProd

The Germans are working on a plan to disconnect from the gas grid. They originally considered shutting down the chemical industry too, but they aren't willing to do that yet. First, they'll cut off shopping malls, service sectors, and electricity—that accounts for about 60% of Russian gas imports.

They’ll basically shut down all the heavy industrial users first, leaving private citizens—regular folks—to be the very last ones on the list.
Think about it: two weeks without power and you've got total chaos breaking out in every single city. Honestly, more than 90% of people wouldn't even have enough food in their pantry to last two days.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
I can't help but wonder if this whole demand to pay for gas in rubles is actually just Putin's way of taking a swing at those local Oligarchs.
I mean, think about it—no major bank outside of Russia is going to touch those rubles to swap them for Dollars or euros.
It’s basically the opposite in Germany; everything there is going to grind to a halt if they don't get enough gas or oil soon. For instance, those LNG terminals that are supposed to make up for the lost capacity?
They aren't even scheduled to be ready until 2024.

The whole situation feels like some twisted endurance test to see who runs out of air first. Honestly, both Europe and Russia are probably going to lose this one.