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Brenda Taylor13 said:I don't think he can—honestly, the Democratic Party coalition isn't nearly as diverse as you’re imagining. Their only real glue is being anti-Republican Party. He won't pull it off, especially if they don't perform well in these upcoming elections, and looking at how things are trending, I don't see them doing great.
The Republican Party might be able to sway maybe 5 or 6 people by throwing favors around, but if he needs something like 15 votes to scrape together a majority? That’s a suicide mission. There just aren't enough people he can bribe.
Plus, after watching this last session of US Congress and seeing all those representatives jumping ship from one party to another—and dealing with the massive backlash from that—it's going to be way harder to justify switching sides right after an election. People are fed up. It’s gonna be a tough sell.
For instance, if the Republican Party grabs 50-55 seats—which, let's face it, is pretty likely—that means he’d need to flip at least 15 people from other parties, not even counting the minority representatives.
Impossible.
Time just put out an article today where they "predict" that to secure a coalition and stay in the Prime Minister's seat, Plenković will have to offer the State Department to Bartulica and the Department of Culture to Hasanbegović. Personally? I think there's zero chance Plenković agrees to that. The other option they mentioned—since a deal might fall through—is heading back to the polls for new elections, which, if you ask me, is the most probable outcome.
Plenković can't go straight to negotiating with the Democratic Party right away; it wouldn't fly. He couldn't justify it to his base, and the Democrats wouldn't bite immediately either. But—and here’s the kicker—he could take the "scenic route." After new elections, he can play the victim: "Look, we tried everything! We gave it our all to build a coalition with Skor and the conservatives, but their demands were just too extreme, so we had no choice but to call for new elections." Then comes the pivot: "It's time to unite," "America is facing uncertain times," "we need to move past ideological divides." In that scenario, teaming up with the Democratic Party becomes a much easier pill for voters to swallow.
So, it’s not Plan A, it’s Plan B—after you've supposedly exhausted every single option with the right wing. You act like you were forced into it because of some massive crisis, forcing you to bridge the divide and form a grand alliance with the Democratic Party for the sake of the country. That would pass without any drama among the voters.
Like I said before, if I were putting money on it, I'd bet on this second scenario: snap elections followed by a massive coalition.
Because the Republican Party will be backed into a corner—too weak to flip enough votes for a majority—and the Democratic Party will be stuck too, since their ability to form alliances is basically non-existent. Skor holds all the cards, and if they play hardball, we’re headed for new elections where both the Republican Party and the Democratic Party end up with a majority, even if their individual numbers are at an all-time low.
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I hope you're right, but looking at who’s actually in that Democratic coalition and the seats they managed to snag, I honestly think Plenković could probably sway even 15 representatives his way if he wanted to. He could likely flip people from the Pametan and Ime i prezime groups too, provided he makes them a tempting enough offer. For instance, that married couple over in Puljak's camp would probably jump at a chance to run the Department of Education—and since Plenković already handed that kind of influence over to the NSF, why wouldn't he offer it to them?
There’s one issue with everything you write... actually, make that two.
Plenković is absolutely dreading the idea of a rerun election. It would be a disaster for him, especially if Skor and the Most party actually manage to team up and form a coalition.
Who would actually lead such a massive coalition? If it isn't Plenković—and considering the Democratic Party is running solo this time without any partners, I doubt the Republican Party could pull anything more significant than him—then the whole coalition falls apart. Plenković loses his grip on the Republican Party, and then they just end up forming a coalition with Skor.
3) I’ve touched on this before... Bernardić would absolutely benefit from Plenković losing ground and the Republican Party shifting further right... I honestly can't imagine a scenario where Bernardić would settle for being a junior partner in a Republican-Democratic coalition, subservient to Plenković. That’s exactly why he’s built such a massive alliance—to take down the Republican Party once and for all...
Looking at points 2 and 3, I'm skeptical that this grand coalition is actually a viable fix... It might work if they managed to sideline Bernardić... But once that physicist from Staten Island emerges as the relative winner of these elections (which seems inevitable), making that happen will be an uphill battle.
Which is precisely why I suspect Plenković will spend the post-election period negotiating—negotiating with Skor, while simultaneously working behind the scenes to rack up favors within the Democratic coalition until he's exhausted every option.
It’s really the only way he survives politically.