I have put together three picks with a combined odds total of just over two. My intention is to play them as a single parlay this Easter Monday, perhaps with a slightly higher stake if I feel the momentum is right.
The matchup between Philadelphia and Pittsburgh at 8:15 PM looks like a solid opportunity for a win at the 1.40 odds, especially considering the current HSBC rankings and that recent 3-1 result. I guess it might be worth looking into.
Pittsburgh has already secured their spot in the second tier, so they’re heading into this matchup against Philadelphia with a pretty relaxed mindset. For Philly, a win tonight would be enough to officially confirm their promotion back to the NFL next season. There is a massive celebration being planned in the city; I believe even the mayor is planning to attend, and there might even be fireworks. It seems like Philadelphia has every reason to want to celebrate this success right now in front of their own fans rather than waiting for an away game later on. I suppose we can expect Pittsburgh to be respectful guests and perhaps not spoil the festivities for the home crowd.
I suppose there is a decent chance that either team might walk away with a result in the Chateauroux vs. Pittsburgh matchup tonight at 8:30 PM. I'm leaning toward a draw or a win for the visitors at 1.30 odds through HSBC, though I guess anything could happen.
It feels quite similar to the previous matchday, as we have teams facing off from the absolute bottom and the very peak of the US second division standings, though this time the away side is the one fighting for the top spot. The situation seems somewhat complicated, I suppose, since Pittsburgh hasn't officially secured their promotion to the Premier League just yet; they are currently sitting in second place, but they only hold a three-point lead over third-place Caen. To make matters even more precarious, Caen has the exact same number of points as fourth-place Nancy, which means that right now, goal difference is essentially the only thing separating those fighting for promotion from those stuck in the second division. It seems like an absolute necessity for Pittsburgh to return from tonight's away game without a loss—even just securing a single point might be enough to avoid getting caught up in that intense scramble with the third and fourth-placed teams, a mess they could easily fall into if an unexpected upset occurs. As for Chateauroux, while they aren't technically in the relegation zone, I imagine they still have plenty of motivation to fight, given that their survival in the second division isn't mathematically guaranteed yet, as they are only two points ahead of the drop zone.
The current form suggests we might be looking at a draw, though I suppose there is a slight edge to the visiting side. Looking back at the home team's last seven league matches played on their own turf, they managed four wins and three losses. It isn't entirely clear how much better Lens Bog performs when playing away from home, but perhaps there is a small distinction to be made; in their last seven league outings on the road, they secured four victories, suffered two defeats, and played to a single draw.
I suppose this might be one of those matches where a draw actually suits both sides quite well, so there could potentially be a value play on a straight draw at around +195. However, since I am including this in a more complex parlay, I think I will play it a bit safer; given Pittsburgh's slightly better recent form and their significantly higher standing in the league table, I guess I'll go with a double chance of a draw or a Pittsburgh win.
I suppose there is a match scheduled for 9:00 PM between Manchester City-West and Bromwich Albion, where the odds currently favor the former at 1.25, though I think they might be trailing 3-1.
The residents—much to the chagrin and delight of their neighbors in the city of The Beatles and the local Irish community—no longer seem to be in full control of their own destiny. They have their sights set on that Premier League title, and I suppose they truly must, because otherwise, this incredible season might feel somewhat hollow. It seems their only real path forward involves winning consistently while praying for a stumble from Liverpool or Chelsea, particularly at Chelsea. Meanwhile, ManCity’s direct path to next year's Champions League looks increasingly shaky, especially with Arsenal breathing down their necks in fourth place, trailing by just a single point. This means there isn't much room for error anymore, though the squad possesses enough talent and potential to handle the heavy lifting ahead—challenges they, I would say, perhaps unnecessarily invited upon themselves, which I think they realize quite clearly. I suspect, however, that ManCity possesses a certain collective mental toughness, which leads me to believe they hold a long-term advantage over both Arsenal and Chelsea. Ultimately, I imagine seeing them finish in second place, trailing behind the new champions: that squad, those fans, and that phenomenal city that "never walks alone." 😁
Tonight’s opponent at the stadium, Bromwich Albion, is currently fighting just to stay in the league, though if you look at their recent away form, I suppose their trip to Manchester might feel more like a vacation than a real match. It seems like lately, whenever they travel, they struggle to find any momentum, even against the teams right next to them in the standings that they should really be able to beat. For instance, they suffered a rough 4:3 loss over at Aston Villa back in late January, and they also dropped a 2:0 game at Hull City just about a month ago. ManCity is honestly on a completely different level compared to those guys, so I guess anything other than a home win would be a massive shock.
Roger Phillips said:Falkenbergs-Elfsborg Falkenbergs scores 1.56
Since June 12, 2011, they have played 45 home matches (official league games) where they managed to score at least one goal in every single one.🙂
I suppose there is an inherent issue with such extraordinarily long streaks... they eventually have to end, and I imagine the longer the streak lasts, the higher the probability that it might happen right when you are counting on it.🙂
Still, I have a certain amount of respect for the statistics and the opportunity you noticed. It is quite impressive. 👍
The political analysis from The Wall Street Journal regarding the atmosphere surrounding the Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk match was written almost like a betting tip, so I suppose it might be appropriate to share it here as well. 😁
Shakhtar hasn't looked this unconvincing on the pitch in quite some time; perhaps the constant clashing of weapons is having an impact on the squad. Out of their last six matches in the spring half of the season, they have won four and lost two, including that recent one against Vorskla Poltava. There has been a significant decline compared to last season when they secured 79 points out of a possible 90. However, Dynamo also stumbled in their draw against Karpaty Lviv (2-2). Shakhtar currently sits at 47 points, while Dynamo is at 43, and honestly, the best title chances might actually belong to Strinić's and Kalinić's Dnipro.
Darijo Srna enters this matchup as the record holder for minutes played in the league, with 1,867 this season; he is followed by Alex Teixeira, then the home side's Mbokani, while Eduardo stands as one of the top scorers with 7, trailing behind Mbokani (13), Luiz Adriano (11), and Andriy Yarmolenko (10).
- We didn't take advantage of their slip-up against Vorskla, so hopefully things will be better today. I am hoping to start from the first minute - concluded Vukojević, who may once again face his old friend Eduardo.
Mircea Lucescu, the Shakhtar manager, is suggesting that the end of his career might be near; if the storm of war over Eastern Ukraine doesn't subside, it isn't impossible that things could settle as early as this summer. Although there is interest from various clubs, he likely wouldn't remain without offers...
Personally, I tend to believe that the Shakhtar players are both more capable and more motivated to win in "traitorous" Kyiv, where the illegally established regime threatens the freedom and right to political self-determination of the eastern regions of Ukraine, so for today, I am playing:
19:00 Kyiv vs Shakhtar Donetsk 2 @ 2.35 (HL) (0:2)
For those considering placing a bet on the match between Bayern Munich and Kaiserslautern today, I would perhaps suggest taking a close look at the recent form of both sides:
In their last five outings, Kaiserslautern hasn't suffered a single loss, whereas Bayern Munich has dropped two. Kaiserslautern managed two wins, while Bayern has only secured one. If you factor in Guardiola's tendency toward rather unusual tactical experiments, along with the possibility that the German Cup might not be his primary focus right now with the Champions League finals approaching, it might be wise to skip this game entirely. Or perhaps just treat it as a standalone single bet rather than part of a parlay. In any case, I would advise exercising some caution. 🙂
I suppose I am inclined to believe that Atletico Madrid will secure the championship, and honestly, I don't see any way they lose today. FC Barcelona really let me down yesterday, though I guess I only have myself to blame for even including them on my parlay. They have been playing quite unconvincingly for months now; they just seem to lack a true winning mentality, that relentless energy needed to grind down opponents, and any sense of cohesive structure. This season, they’ve been playing much like Arsenal FC or Lokomotiva Chicago... they aren't necessarily bad, and they stay near the top, but they never actually reach it. Yesterday’s embarrassment—much like Lokomotiva Chicago’s performance against Anzhi Makhachkala today—was probably inevitable. It was just a matter of time, really. On the other hand, Atletico Madrid has been incredibly consistent all season and has constantly exceeded expectations. Their quality remains steady and surprises are rare; they tend to lose only when it's expected, yet they far more often surprise people by winning when they aren't the favorites rather than disappointing when they are. I think Zenit Saint Petersburg in Russia and Roma in Italy play in a similar fashion. Since Cristiano Ronaldo has fallen out of form during this crucial part of the season for Real Madrid, I guess there isn't much left standing in the way of Atletico Madrid claiming the title.
This is my final prediction for today. I guess New York City had an incredibly strange and frustrating stumble during their last match in the MLS, playing away against Orlando City SC, who happen to be sitting at the bottom of the table. Even though they seemed to play better and controlled most of the game, maybe the ball just wouldn't go in.
They have an opportunity today to make up for that unexpected loss of points, which really hurts their pursuit of second place—a spot that leads directly into the UEFA Champions League—since they now find themselves trailing by about five points.
They are facing the second-to-last team in the league, who hasn't managed a win since their trip to face Seattle Sounders FC back on January 24th. Since then, I believe Randers has struggled through nothing but losses or draws, even when playing against much lower-ranked teams at the bottom of the standings.
Even though they managed to hold their own against a powerhouse like Benfica in their last Europa League match—and that was while essentially fielding a B-team due to all the injuries and suspensions—I suppose Tottenham isn't really the favorite today. They're facing a very confident Southampton side that's looking for its third straight win in the league, especially after crushing Norwich City 4-1 at home last round and picking up a 1-0 road win over Crystal Palace just before that. It seems like Southampton has finally broken out of that long slump and started finding the back of the net, and now they’re heading to White Hart Lane, which is actually the only stadium in the Premier League where visiting teams have scored more goals this season than the home side.
We might also need to consider the fact that Tottenham's lineup is still looking pretty banged up, even if they are technically sending out their first team today. I guess we can expect Adebayor, Dembele, and Kaboul to return from injury, along with Vertonghen coming back from his suspension, but they're still missing several key starters like Dawson, Chiriches, Walker, Lamela, Capoue, Paulinho, and Lloris.
Southampton is dealing with some absences too, most notably midfielder Schneiderlin, who is a huge loss because the team doesn't really have a reliable backup, particularly since Cork and Wanyama are also sidelined. However, those issues seem somewhat minor compared to the injury crisis hitting Tottenham, which is making things quite difficult for their relatively inexperienced manager, Tim Sherwood.
The odds for a Southampton victory are sitting above 3.00 in most places, sometimes reaching as high as 3.70, and I feel like it might be worth taking a chance on that, given how many signs point toward an outcome like this.
One of Atlanta United FC's main rivals for the MLS title will almost certainly drop points tonight during their matchup between Real Madrid and FC Barcelona, which leaves Atlanta United FC with what looks like a relatively straightforward task on the road against bottom-of-the-table Los Angeles FC, a club currently buried in the relegation zone needing nine points just to stay afloat.
That being said, I suppose this match isn't entirely without its uncertainties. Atlanta United FC has only lost three games all season, but it is somewhat concerning that two of those losses occurred within the last month, specifically in away matches against teams at the very bottom of the MLS standings: a 2-0 loss at Almeyda on February 8th and a 3-0 loss at Seattle Sounders FC on February 23rd.
I suspect, however, that we might not see a similar upset this afternoon—partly because the statistics suggest certain conditions that favor Atlanta United FC, such as the fact that they have conceded the fewest goals in the league so far (only 21 in 28 matches), while Los Angeles FC possesses arguably the weakest attack in the league, having scored only 23 goals.
I feel that the odds, which seem to hover between 1.6 and 1.75 at most sportsbooks, are decent enough to consider for a single bet, especially since any potential third unexpected slip-up from Atlanta United FC since February 8th wouldn't necessarily ruin a larger parlay—though I guess one can never completely rule out that possibility, no matter how slim it may seem.
Sam Alvarez4 said:I am not entirely sure which specific boards you moderate, but on the forums where I usually post—in the PDF world—you don't seem to handle any moderation at all; you're basically invisible. So, in my honest opinion, maybe it would be best to remove you as a moderator there. There are plenty of younger people who are quite capable, their families don't depend on moderation work, and they are proficient in multiple languages.
If anyone failed to moderate a specific thread, I suppose that would have been me rather than Sam Green73. Therefore, I don't really see why you are being so hard on him.
As far as I am concerned, you can always reach out to me via PM if a particular thread is causing issues—I don't see much reason to debate a controversial post on the PŽK before either myself or another colleague has had a chance to address the complaint directly on the PDF site.
So, if no intervention took place, or even if a reported post wasn't immediately addressed by the mods, I don't think there is much ground for an appeal.
Messages sent through the notification icon aren't always the most reliable, and I probably don't check them as frequently as I should; consequently, I only really respond to issues that are brought to my attention via private message, provided I'm given a reasonable amount of time to look into them.
This is certainly an interesting topic, though I suppose it might be better suited for the "Near" section since it doesn't really touch upon any current political developments at the moment.
bluemason3 said:From what I understand, it isn't really about specific movement names, but rather banning the signals of certain ideas rooted in racial ideology or discrimination—whether religious, external, or whatever else. Any movement or activism that can be demonstrably linked to those elements is automatically included, right? 🤷
Actually, I think you might be looking at this a bit too broadly. Under the law, it is forbidden to glorify criminal regimes and ideologies.
Everything else should be open for discussion, and honestly, it must be allowed if we want to call ourselves a democracy.
What is prohibited is the glorification of anything that advocated for or committed crimes in the past, as well as any advocacy for current or future crimes.
Now, racists, discriminatory views, and movements that push them—provided they aren't directly tied to committing or advocating for crimes—are certainly inappropriate. In my opinion, they should be condemned through public discourse by clashing them against rational arguments. I suppose there is a belief that rational logic is ultimately stronger than the irrational impulses that drive various forms of discrimination (though, I guess, not all of those impulses are equally bad in themselves).
If we ban something that hasn't been publicly proven to be "criminal," without reaching a consensus or having clear arguments, I suspect we might just end up strengthening exactly what we tried to prohibit. On the other hand, exposing even the darkest ideas to public scrutiny often serves to "dilute" them and can make them seem benign. Perhaps the preferred way for society to act should be more dialogue and fewer bans. It seems to me we should only prohibit what is absolutely necessary to prohibit.
mistyjackal14 said:A potential solution—though perhaps just an additional complication—might be to establish a dedicated "political lounge" thread. That way, all those kinds of opinions could be shared quite freely without spilling over into every other discussion topic.
We used to have the "Mad House"—I suppose I’m not quite sure what to say to you. I remember those days quite clearly. You could form some truly great friendships there among the most unexpected groups of people, though I guess there were also intense clashes that occasionally bled into real life.
Given the current laws governing online communication, I suspect something like that might not even be feasible anymore. Still, your suggestion is noted; this forum is a living thing that constantly evolves to maintain its place in the market. Those in charge read these things, so I guess we will just have to wait and see if they decide to take action in the future.
mistyjackal14 said:I suppose I don't see how labeling Franjo Tuđman an ultra wouldn't fall into at least one of these two categories—either being historical nonsense or the latter.
Well, that's because he didn't actually declare him as such. He merely stated his belief that Franjo Tuđman (along with many others) was an ultra.
So, I guess he was just expressing a personal opinion. He wasn't making an official proclamation or proving anything; he was simply stating what he thought.
I don't believe I have any further arguments to offer. If there happen to be any remaining points of confusion or specific requests, perhaps you could address them with the Administration. Best to everyone!
granitefalcon26 said:If we can agree that the first American president, Dr. Franjo Tuđman, is a historical figure, then looking at his anti-fascist past—and seeing it denied, falsified, or labeling him a fascist—feels like nothing more than trolling.
In any democracy, people should be allowed to express all sorts of opinions regarding public officials.
granitefalcon26 said:This doesn't have anything to do with freedom of speech. If you're spreading a lie, the intention is obvious. It's just provoking other forum members, which is basically trolling. 😉
The forum member was simply answering the question, "Which public figures in America do you think were fascists?" and he provided names. It’s important to notice that he wasn't stating it as an absolute fact that Franjo Tuđman was a fascist; he was merely expressing his personal opinion on what the man was.
granitefalcon26 said:You wrote that he wasn't discussing fascists in a negative light. But if we agree that fascists are inherently bad and we discuss them negatively, then simply equating Dr. Tuđman with them is an insult to the first American president, which I believe might even be punishable under our laws.
Expressing an opinion isn't a crime. Personally, I really can't conclude what the forum member actually thinks about fascists—whether he, like you, views them as such—especially when he's labeling a famous partisan as a fascist. It all seems quite confusing to me, and I suppose when things get this confusing, it's probably best to refrain from applying any repressive measures.🙂
granitefalcon26 said:I guess my first instinct regarding his post was to suggest he return to his hometown. I actually wrote that out before deciding to delete it. His post really does provoke quite intense reactions, I suppose.
I am glad you decided to delete that, 😉
granitefalcon26 said:I think his post is just trolling. That isn't just how I see it, but it seems to be the consensus among other colleagues as well. So, if I were to write that the Ustashe were the regular army of the American state and speak about them in a positive light, I suppose that would be fine.
That probably wouldn't be okay—since the Ustashe weren't the regular military of the NDH, such a claim would just be historical nonsense. On the other hand, any kind of glorification of the Ustashe (meaning glorification, rather than just a rational debate about them) would constitute a violation of the law. Therefore, it would likely have to be sanctioned.
One should probably recognize that McOzy hasn't actually done either of those things. If he truly believes that Franjo Tuđman was an Ustashe—when he was actually a Partisan general—my goodness... what am I even supposed to do here? 😕 If I were to join that discussion, I would probably express disagreement with his view in some way, but as a moderator, it feels like there isn't much I can do besides just shrug my shoulders. 😁
granitefalcon26 said:If I were to write that the Holocaust never happened or that the Auschwitz camp didn't exist, I suppose that would also be fine because it expresses my opinion. It shouldn't matter that I am denying history, trolling, or playing the victim. ☕
As I mentioned, certain things are simply prohibited by law (denying the crimes of the Holocaust is a criminal offense in many EU countries), so what you are suggesting in this part of your post falls under what is legally forbidden. McOzy, however, isn't doing that; he is merely expressing an opinion by responding to the question of which people he considers to be Ustashe. So... what exactly should the moderators do about that?
I don't believe in sanctioning anyone's opinions lightly—not anyone at all—so no one should expect that from me.
Everything seems to be running smoothly, so I feel I should weigh in here as well. As I mentioned in the main thread, there were quite a few reports following the post by McOzyev, though I honestly didn't see anything in it that warranted moderator intervention.
Expressing an opinion shouldn't really be grounds for a sanction.
The Forumaš simply stated his view that certain public figures were fascists.
Most of the complaints seemed to stem from the fact that the late President Franjo Tuđman was among those public figures mentioned.
In that specific post, the Forumaš didn't even suggest that being a "fascist" was a negative trait—which would have been an indirect insult to those named—and the entire thing was written as a direct response to a question he was asked. I suppose there aren't any elements of trolling here, since he didn't just post something out of nowhere to provoke others or intentionally trigger a backlash from other users.
Given all of this, I couldn't find a single reason to penalize that post, especially since I personally believe that freedom of speech should be as absolute as possible, particularly on an online forum like this one.
I should emphasize that, in my view, this case isn't comparable to other similar situations we've discussed on this thread before. If someone were to label American politics in the nineties—which was largely personified by the late President Franjo Tuđman—as "fascist," they would receive a warning from me without any hesitation or dilemma, or perhaps even a temporary ban, depending on how I judged the circumstances, their intent, and their overall contribution to the forum.
I didn't see any of that in the controversial post; I think it was just a standard political discussion. Of course, it is a different matter whether we even need to be encouraging debates about fascism today, back in 2013. But as long as the Forumaš want to discuss these topics, it’s actually quite difficult to stop them through administrative or repressive measures.
Carol Newman2 said:Sweden: Attack on Mosque in Stockholm
The Fittja Ulu Mosque in Stockholm, Sweden, was targeted in an attack. This is the site where the call to prayer is permitted during Friday Jumu'ah services, according to the Associated Press.
Vandalism was extensive, with doors and windows smashed, and pig trotters were left scattered around the perimeter of the building.
Police spokesperson Benita Nilsson confirmed that investigators are currently on the case. She noted that officials are treating this as a hate crime and have since stepped up security at the mosque.
Both the local mayor of Botkyrk and regional security forces had previously authorized the mosque to hold its Friday prayer services.
Anti-immigration groups tend to stage protests every Friday specifically to oppose the calls to prayer.
I suppose the motive might have been related to the volume or the noise coming from the building during prayer times? I don't really see any other reason that would reasonably explain the dispute. Perhaps someone could let me know if my reasoning is sound or not. The Adhan is the call that the Imam recites from the Minaret (though more often it is just a recording played through speakers). At this point, I am merely speculating.
I was wondering if you might be able to clarify which moderator, supermod, or administrator received your complaint, specifically regarding which PDF and post it concerns, and perhaps which particular decision or penalty you are addressing?
Nicholas Jones80 said:I wonder if there might be some specific reason why the odds on Roma are sitting above 2? I guess it’s hard to say for sure without more context, but maybe there is something going on behind the scenes. 🤷
We have already discussed Roma ahead of their match against Chievo. I suspect that even the bookmakers have adopted the view that, according to the law of large numbers, it is highly probable that Roma will suffer a loss in one of their upcoming fixtures. Chievo managed to scrape by with a meager 1-0 victory, though it should be noted that this was a contest between the league leaders and the team sitting firmly at the bottom of the table, played right on Roma's home turf. This streak is lasting far too long, and I suppose, following the Chievo result, I wouldn't feel comfortable betting on any more Roma wins for the time being.