Posts by wearytrucker22

gentlestag15 said:I don't know, man. My only logical take is that they're out there spraying for mosquitoes.
if they honestly think a bit of smoke is going to hide a massive bridge in the age of GPS, then they’re even more clueless than I originally thought.11 miles😁

brightheron64 said:Oh please, let's not get carried away with such lofty optimism...

Let’s try some very basic math here... suppose Russian oil and gas production accounts for roughly 10% of global consumption...

If you shut that off, you’re suddenly missing 10% of your supply that needs replacing. And then what happens...?
Do you honestly think that the other 90% of producers are going to be all altruistic and decide to keep prices steady, or better yet, lower them because they just love us so much?

Let's look at it from a more practical, everyday perspective... imagine you have an abundance of gasoline, while I'm left with nothing...
- The first time, maybe you'll give me some for free because you're such a saint...
- The second time, you'll sell it to me at the standard market rate...
- But the third time? You'll cut me off and tell me it's either a 20% markup or I can start walking...

Andrew Booth29 said:Honestly, I don't see any real logic behind Lithuania's move... it feels like an escalation for the sake of escalating. The strategic importance of that enclave is practically nonexistent when you look at the bigger picture.

bluebison8 said:People who view everything in strictly black and white are the biggest fools of all.

brightheron64 said:Exactly, and it honestly provides me a little bit of comfort knowing that because of this sacrifice, the Saudi royals will finally be able to afford more than just the bare essentials... they might even have enough left over for some butter on their toast next time...

brightheron64 said:Maybe now we can actually hope that gas prices don't jump up another 30 cents this Tuesday like everyone is predicting—though when they asked Marić about it just now, he couldn't give a straight answer...

velvetscout10 said:Canada is exempt from the European Union's oil embargo on Russia, which means they’re still going to be trading oil with them
Since ExxonMobil runs our local refineries, does that mean we Americans aren't actually sweating the fuel shortage anymore? And more importantly, are prices finally gonna drop?

electricsurfer47 said:Can someone help me out here? I heard Mexico signed some kind of gas deal with Russia the other day.

Here's my question: Mexico isn't part of the EU, but let's say almost everyone in Europe agrees to stop importing gas. Are we going to block their imports? Like I said, Mexico isn't in the EU, but they're pretty much surrounded by the EU.

rustywalker82 said:What do you mean by that? Why would there be no gas just because the tankers sail away?
It's because those tankers are out in, I don't know, the States, not here in America... Even if you actually manage to snag enough ships—which is a whole different beast before versus after an embargo—you're still stuck dealing with how slow it is to unload cargo from floating LNG terminals.

wanderingmaker3 said:Canada isn't going to stop importing gas and oil from Russia.
Someone made a point a few posts back that actually makes sense.
You know what Viktor Orbán is like—he’s not about to bow down to some bureaucrats in the European Union, especially since he's fond of Vladimir Putin anyway.
So, if things shift, those pipelines could easily start flowing a different direction toward us.

analogbear5 said:Also, let's not forget the most critical link in this whole chain that people on this forum always seem to overlook: someone actually has to move the oil.

Basically, Russia sends its oil to Europe using Aframax and Suezmax tankers with capacities up to 600,000 barrels—that's about a week's trip there and a week back.

Those tankers just aren't efficient enough for long-haul voyages. To get oil over to China, you'd need VLCC tankers—they have over 70 of them, but since those massive ships can't fit through the Suez, you'd be looking at a month-long trip each way. Plus, all 800-ish VLCCs currently in existence are already running at full tilt.

Besides, if the Chinese decide to buy Russian oil—which would make shipping costs skyrocket—it would free up a massive amount of Arab oil that could head to Europe instead of China.

feralcanyon73 said:Has the Euro finally hit a 1:1000 ratio against the dollar?
Let's see if those forum economists actually knew what they were talking about.

Joshua Myers432 said:I’m not sure if you even grasp the purpose of NATO or why it was established in the first place. Let’s be honest: expanding NATO eastward and encircling Russia is nothing more than a blatant display of hostility toward them.

Sure, nations have every right to form military alliances as they see fit—but don't act surprised when you end up becoming dependent on hostile energy suppliers because of it. Honestly, the political maneuvering in Europe over the last century has been utterly nonsensical, leading directly to two World Wars on European soil, and now it looks like we're sprinting headlong into a third.

At the end of the day, "villain" and "hero" are just matters of perspective. And yes, I believe Russia is the bad guy here. That's my subjective take, just as yours is yours.

analogbear5 said:Can you drop a source on why there won't be any meds available? Just curious about the reasoning.

Michael Davis9 said:Russia is going to pivot its oil and gas exports toward Asia. In the long run, that’s probably going to be way less profitable for them, but let’s face it—it’s not like the entire world is just going to slap sanctions on all Russian energy overnight.

Looking at the big picture, Western sanctions will eventually drag down Russian productivity because, over time, they're going to run out of the high-tech goods needed for efficient mining, manufacturing, and stuff like that, but...

The thing is, Russia is massive, and their capacity to pull off an autarkic economic policy is huge. It’s honestly unrealistic to expect Americans to think that Russians will be starving or running out of basic raw materials after just a month or two. They've been insulating themselves since 2014 and don't rely on the outside world nearly as much as someone like China does.

Even Putin seems to have his head on straight in one specific way—he isn't micromanaging the economy too much. He lets the technocrats do their jobs without forcing them to resign, so instead of making wild, erratic moves, they’re mostly just managing the economic decline.

And when you consider the massive stockpiles of weaponry left over from the USSR, combined with some of their own domestic production, expecting them to just run out of ammo is also pretty unrealistic. The only things that will be hard to replace are helicopters and specialized tech, but they have plenty of those lying around.

Sanctions are good, and we should definitely support them, but keep in mind that the USSR was essentially under some form of sanctions for seventy years.
Russia is smaller than the old union, sure, but they don't have a planned economy anymore or a bunch of idiots running every single aspect of the economy.
It’ll get harder for them to pick up quality car tires or a decent laptop, but they aren't going to run out of food or basic, low-tech weaponry anytime soon.

At the end of the day, the only way for Ukraine to win is militarily; sanctions can only do so much to help that effort.

David Torres2 said:...which also happens to have enough nukes to wipe out the world several times over.☕

Sarah Mitchell2 said:Fair enough, but they're only selling gas to the EU. Which specific year does that 66 billion figure cover? What was the total back in 2021 versus what we're looking at for 2022? If it ends up being more than 172 billion, then those sanctions didn't actually do squat.

If it were up to me—even though I rely on gas for heat—I'd say shut it all down immediately. Prices are going up regardless.

So why the hell is gas getting more expensive then?

Sarah Mitchell2 said:These sanctions are a joke. The EU is basically banning everything except gas, which just means we'll end up paying a premium for it while Russia keeps enough cash flow to sell their resources elsewhere without breaking a sweat.

But hey, if they want to play dress-up, let them.

George Robinson43 said:Dmitry Peskov claims there is a world existing outside of the West.
Admittedly, during his time in those old Soviet schools, they never quite grasped basic concepts like supply and demand, so it’s hardly surprising they are being tossed into the economic dustbin of history.
After all, if nobody has any use for their gas, they can always just deploy their massive military to create a demand by force. 😉

Dmitry Peskov really needs to take a good, hard look at this versus the actual state of the Russian economy. Honestly, I’m starting to get worried that those guys won't be able to manufacture anything more sophisticated than the gear they're currently dumping into Ukraine.
They’re saying this new rig is going to run anywhere from 700 to 800 million Dollars starting in 2025. They’re looking at an annual overhead of about 100 million. That’s the kind of raw industrial muscle you only see in the West. Honestly, it’s wild how some people will just cut a check to anyone willing to drill into the earth and pull oil out of the ground. Even the folks in the Middle East have the capital to make that happen.😁
The video provides a deep dive into how the current geopolitical tensions between the U.S. and Russia are fundamentally reshaping global trade routes and energy dependencies. It’s a heavy topic, but one that demands attention if you want to understand why gas prices at the pump fluctuate so wildly based on headlines coming out of Moscow. The core argument centers on the fragmentation of the globalized era. For decades, we operated under the assumption that economic interdependence would act as a stabilizer—that if everyone was trading with everyone else, large-scale conflict would be too costly to pursue. That logic has been thoroughly dismantled. We are seeing a pivot away from integrated markets toward "friend-shoring," where nations prioritize trade with political allies rather than whoever offers the lowest price. There is also a significant focus on the shifting role of the European Union. The video points out how much the EU had to scramble to decouple its industrial base from Russian energy supplies. This isn't just a temporary hiccup; it’s a structural realignment of the Western economy. While this transition is incredibly expensive and creates short-term volatility, the narrative suggests it's an inevitable step toward strategic autonomy. One interesting takeaway is the discussion regarding the dollar's dominance. As various blocs attempt to diversify their reserves to mitigate the impact of potential sanctions, there is a palpable sense of tension regarding the future of the Dollar as the world's primary reserve currency. It isn't suggesting a total collapse of the system, but rather a slow move toward a more multipolar financial landscape. Ultimately, the footage argues that the era of "peace through commerce" is being replaced by an era of "security through self-sufficiency." It’s a more expensive way to run a planet, certainly, but according to the analysis, it's becoming the new baseline for national security.