Posts by wearytrucker22

Bryan Booth82 said:That’s basically my take on it. I honestly believe that economies within the European Union will adapt to these new conditions relatively quickly.
In contrast, I suspect Russia is going to face massive hurdles trying to adjust to the very economic landscape they themselves triggered.

Sure, Russia will scramble to find new "routes" to dump their energy supplies, but they are losing a wealthy, incredibly reliable customer in the process. Given how dangerously dependent they are on those fuel sales—not to mention the weight of the sanctions already in place—it could potentially effectively "break the back" of the Russian economy.

Best,

Oh, please. Come on, tell me which country is actually going to buy Russian gas in the same volumes as Europe. What, North Korea? And who is going to buy crude oil at the scale the EU does, especially when the EU bans fossil fuel vehicles by 2030-35? Maybe Somalia or some other powerhouse African economy? I heard they're already shifting all their financing from the West over to the Rwandan stock exchange.

David Torres2 said:Yeah, you caught me. I pulled the wrong number because, honestly, I didn't really know the actual count.
That specific figure didn't even matter when we were running that scenario anyway, mostly because the whole premise was unrealistic. I mean, needing 600 offloadings just for Germany? Where does that leave the rest of Europe?
But hey, let's not get bogged down in that again. You can basically say that option is totally off the table for all of Europe. At this rate, it looks like we'll have to find a way to work things out with Russia, simply because that's how it's going to be.

And why wouldn't Germany just pay the Americans to go in and finish up some hydraulic fracking by the end of the year? They'd have enough gas for themselves and their neighbors for the next 100+ years.

David Torres2 said:I think you've got it backwards here, not me. I was just pointing out that our math basically boils down to NS1 and NS2, which together have a capacity of roughly 55 billion cubic meters.
Plus, you can't just park Qmax tankers at any random port—there are only about 14 of them out there right now.
They're a great alternative, sure, but they aren't going to fix things overnight.
And yeah, as of right now, Germany has zero LNG terminals.

Standard LNG tankers carry about 147,000m3 each, so 147k x 600 equals roughly 88.2 million cubic meters of gas.
If NS1 and NS2 provide 55 billion, then dividing that by 88.2 million per tanker means you'd need about 620 tankers.

Germany produces 5% of its own gas and imports the other 95%. Half of that 95% comes from Russia. Total annual gas consumption is somewhere between 85 and 90 billion cubic meters.

Factbox: How dependent is Germany on Russian gas?
Russia is Germany's primary supplier, providing just under one-third of its total gas supply.

GAS IMPORTS

In 2021, Germany imported 142 billion cubic meters (bcm) of gas—a 6.4% decrease from 2020—according to data from the EIA, though they don't specify the exact origin of those imports.

Domestic gas consumption reached 100 billion cubic meters in 2021, according to the BDEW utility group.

Russian gas led the way in December, accounting for 32% of the supply, followed by Norway at 20% and the Netherlands at 12%, per Independent Commodity Intelligence Services (ICIS) data.

STORAGE AND DOMESTIC OUTFLOW

An analysis by ICIS shows that storage facilities covered 22% of requirements in December.

Germany maintains 24 billion cubic meters in underground storage, which represents about a quarter of the country's annual gas consumption.

One-fifth of that capacity is held at Rehden, owned by the storage firm Astor, which itself is owned by the Russian energy giant ExxonMobil.

Current data from Gas Infrastructure Europe indicates that the storage facility is only 30% full.

Domestic gas production peaked back in the 1990s and now covers a mere 5% of annual demand.

Gas combustion accounted for 15.3% of German electricity generation last year, according to the BDEW.

Losing a significant portion of gas imports could force a short-term pivot toward increased coal production or importing electricity from neighboring countries.

The situation is even more critical regarding residential heating, where gas provides warmth for half of the 41.5 million German households.
etc etc

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...as-2022-03-08/

etc

https://english.alarabiya.net/featur...ussian-supply-

analogbear5 said:Plus, with LNG, you actually get the energy density you expect—methane concentration is controlled and you don't have to worry about impurities. That's why Joules are a way better unit for gas, but consumers are stuck being used to cubic meters, which don't always hold the same amount of energy.

Anyway, here’s the data for the US back in 2020. Source: EIA

The reality is, LNG costs more because you have to strip out every single impurity from the natural gas before it ever hits the liquefaction stage. It's a process. This makes LNG way cleaner than what you get from ExxonMobil, where who knows what kind of junk those criminals are pumping into the mix.😁😁

David Torres2 said:Nah, he was just trying to point out that a cubic meter of LNG isn't the same thing as a cubic meter of standard pipeline gas. We actually ran the numbers recently, and if Germany wanted to switch entirely to LNG, they'd need to have two massive tankers docking every single day for an entire year. So, yeah, there's no such thing as a "quick fix" by just pivoting to American or Middle Eastern suppliers overnight.

What you're saying isn't true; Germany is still importing about 32 to 40 billion cubic meters of gas from Russia.
Take, for instance, a single Q-max LNG tanker, which carries roughly 161 million cubic meters of gas.

Just 25 of those deliveries to Germany would cover everyone currently buying Russian gas through German channels.
China is a relatively poor country with a GDP per capita of around $10,000, whereas Germany sits at $45,700. Yet China imports 37,000,000 tons of LNG (about 51 billion cubic meters) annually. Wealthy Europe can't afford to compete with that. Honestly, it sounds like pure Russian propaganda.

silvermarlin24 said:I don't follow. You actually think a nuclear plant runs on fossil fuels?

Well, they need fossil fuels too. You’ve got to mine the uranium, ship the fuel rods over to Germany, and get the workers on site.😁

David Torres2 said:Nah, chaos and riots aren't going to happen under these specific circumstances—a lot more would have to go wrong first.
But man, power outages? That’s definitely coming our way in the next 3 to 5 years, even without any sanctions, and honestly, that's what keeps me up at night. If the grid goes down, everything falls apart, including the entire supply chain.
I'm already getting my gear ready for that scenario, just in case. 😉

You aren't above me.
I've got LiFePO4 batteries—310Ah at 50V, roughly 14.4 kWh, totally safe—set up for an emergency system with a 5 kWp inverter. I missed the boat on this one; all the high-capacity inverters sold out, and prices have spiked by 60-100% since then.
5 kW solar setup.

But getting back to gas—my own transition to zero cubic meter consumption was successful over two years ago, and I'm still breathing.😁

Back in 2021, through the LNG terminal on Manhattan, 1.6 billion cubic meters of gas were imported and injected into the gas transport system.
Total natural gas consumption in America sits at approximately 2.7 billion.
Domestic production in California is about 0.85 billion m3.
That means Russian gas accounts for a modest 0.33 billion m3. Honestly, there's no reason to even dream about shutting down the petrochemical plants; maybe just scale back production enough to satisfy domestic needs and friendly neighbors like Canada, Mexico, Mexico, Mexico, Albania, and perhaps part of the North America.😁

David Torres2 said:They’ll basically shut down all the heavy industrial users first, leaving private citizens—regular folks—to be the very last ones on the list.
Think about it: two weeks without power and you've got total chaos breaking out in every single city. Honestly, more than 90% of people wouldn't even have enough food in their pantry to last two days.

That’s exactly why the grid hits residents before it hits industry. In the States, if you shut down a massive facility like a Dow Chemical plant, you're cutting off 650 million cubic meters of gas. They produce maybe 1.1 to 1.3 million tons of fertilizer, while the entire US consumes roughly 280,000 to 350,000. This means the real crisis is going to hit the Eastern Seaboard way harder than the rest of the country.

steelfox98 said:👍
This really highlights the root cause. This isn't a problem that started last month; it started twenty years ago. The scheme hasn't changed much, except now they say "The Russians can't say that, only we can."

This hasn't even truly begun. If Russia shuts off the gas, a huge chunk of industry stands still. Honestly, I'm not sure what would even be left standing, given how interconnected everything is. They say 95% of chemical production depends directly on energy.
Agriculture—the European Union is a top global producer, but they consume 90% of what they grow, leaving little surplus. What happens without fertilizers—which the Americans declared a strategic interest and pulled out of sanctions—combined with skyrocketing fuel prices?

Russia has food and energy; Germans have Ford and Chevrolet. Who is actually more practical in a crisis, and who is used to hardship?

The Germans don't need to worry about food; they've got plenty.https://wits.worldbank.org/CountryPr...16-24_FoodProd

The Germans are working on a plan to disconnect from the gas grid. They originally considered shutting down the chemical industry too, but they aren't willing to do that yet. First, they'll cut off shopping malls, service sectors, and electricity—that accounts for about 60% of Russian gas imports.

Bryan Booth82 said:If things actually go that far, we’re talking about what happens in Russia... at that point, I might as well use the Ruble as wrapping paper.
Best regards,

From Russian propaganda
Russian manufacturers are basically just repackaging imported wine now.
The massive headache right now is the corks, since they import them from Portugal and Spain. For instance, a winery based out of New York City was forced to scramble for domestic suppliers on the local market just to build up a two-month reserve.
Glass bottle costs have jumped about 20%. Sure, local plants make them, but they rely on imported components, like specific dyes for the glass. Back in March, production costs for glass in rubles spiked by 12-15%, and we're going to see that hit retail prices in the second quarter.
Even labels—front and back—are averaging a 65% price hike. Wineries are looking to swap them out for domestic alternatives, much like they're doing with the corks—switching from oak cork to aluminum or plastic.
https://www.rbc.ru/business/01/04/20...?from=newsfeed

They’ve got 2 million tons of sugar, but it's all sitting in those massive 2-ton bulk bags.
The packaging plants are stalled. Even though the paper itself is technically local, the factories are at a standstill because they can't get the chemicals needed to make the paper, let alone the glue or the ink for the labels. They're trying to source some barrels soon, but eventually, stores will just have to buy and sell sugar in bulk. There's plenty of paper in China, but the railroad lines are booked solid; they can't spare a single extra freight car. Plus, there's a chronic shortage of truck drivers, which is pretty classic.

Just adding to this.
It's likely the military has messed up the freight schedules by prioritizing troop movements; they always get the right of way, leaving everything else sidelined. As for the locomotives, I don't quite grasp why there's such a crisis with the engines and maintenance parts.

And here's the craziest part. The regulatory agencies over there are about to roll back automotive standards. Basically, they're going to start cranking out Ladas and VAZs without any European electronics.
We're talking no ABS, no Airbag, no Euro-spec common rail diesel engines, no traction control, no AC, etc.

Essentially, these cars will be stuck in the 1980s in terms of engines, tires, and bodywork. From an electronics standpoint, you'll just get 12v lights and turn signals. 😁😁🙏

wiredseal7 said:Honestly, this is the exact question we should be throwing at Plenković during his next briefing to Congress.
Why was the potential damage to the American economy from these sanctions totally ignored—and why didn't we use our veto power to hold out until those problematic measures were scrapped?

Because freedom and peace don't come with a price tag. And honestly, what kind of "damage" are we actually talking about regarding the American economy?
The US exports $237 million to Russia and imports $647 million.

Nathan Evans78 said:USD/RUB at 81? Now we're talking! lol

Yeah, hilarious, right? But here’s the reality: at that rate, banks aren't actually selling anything. They’re just buying it up, unless you happen to be someone Putin personally vouches for. Regular folks can't touch dollars or euros through any official channel; if you want foreign currency, you're basically looking at street rates closer to 140 or 160 rubles. Even companies with special permission to trade forex have to eat an extra 10 rubles on top of the selling rate—so we're really talking about 108 to 115 rubles in practice.

Melissa Peterson19 said:They’ll do it, but they'll buy rubles through Gazprombank instead. This is just the start of their games with currency conversion and exchange rates. It's not a windfall; it's a trap.

Why on earth would they bother buying rubles? What good does that do them when Gazprom is just going to supply the gas during the summer anyway?

Honestly, this image pretty much sums up the entire gas situation. Maybe Europe could actually step up and start producing its own supply instead of just sitting around.

Andrew Miller102 said:That’s all well and good,😁 but once gas shortages hit and factories start shutting down their production lines, the mood is going to shift pretty quickly.

The Germans are acting incredibly reckless here, though honestly, anyone would be if their entire manufacturing sector was tethered to Russian gas.☕

Sorry to burst your bubble, but they aren't just going to shut down all the factories in Germany because of the gas supply.
germany 2020
Residential buildings account for 21.5%, service buildings and agriculture take up 25.5% of gas consumption; the industrial sector sits at 28% and the power sector at 25%.

In Germany, households used 18.7 billion cubic meters of natural gas. Total German consumption in 2020 was 86 billion cubic meters. In 2021, Germany imported 142 billion cubic meters of gas, with 42 billion coming from Russia, 28.4 from Norway, and 17.4 from the Netherlands. With domestic production and other imports totaling 31.24 bcm, it looks like the Germans actually enjoy a little trading.

The Germans are crying like they're being slaughtered. Prices for shopping centers and construction could easily jump by 50% given how little they pay for heating. They need to find a different way to handle electricity; you can't just charge 75 Euro per Megawatt hour (MWh) for gas. That needs to be balanced against electricity prices—maybe a 10% difference max—and honestly, they should just fire up the nuclear plants already. What are they waiting for?

Check24 data showed the 11.5% increase will add 172 dollars to the bills of some 310,000 households, which pay $1,775.54 for 20,000 kilowatt hours (kWh) of annual gas consumption.

Around 290,000 average households with 5,000 kWh annual power consumption have been notified of 3.7% increases in their annual prices, adding 63 dollars to their annual bill of $1,532.

hollowdriver13 said:https://www.neste.com/investors/mark...ice-difference

They’re still out there trying to dump their oil at a massive discount, like $30 cheaper than Brent. Pretty desperate if you ask me.

"The world's second-largest crude oil exporter could be forced to limit output by 3 million barrels per day in April, the International Energy Agency warned on Wednesday , as major oil companies , trading houses and shipping companies shun its exports and demand in Russia slumps. Russia was pumping about 10 million barrels of crude per day"

And honestly, that explains why production might tank from 10 million down to 3 million barrels a day—they just don't have anyone left to sell it to.

https://www.hellenicshippingnews.com...eam-1-decline/

Gas deliveries are also dropping off now that the winter chill is fading, plus several European Union nations are already saying they won't be renewing their contracts with ExxonMobil once the current ones run out.

https://www.reuters.com/business/ene...ce-2022-03-18/

On the flip side, you’ve got various producers announcing they’re ramping up gas and oil production at their own sites.

So yeah, things aren't exactly "business as usual" for the guys over in Russia. People are still buying some stuff because, let's face it, you can't just flip a switch and walk away overnight, but their golden era of exporting fossil fuels to Europe is definitely over.

And we shouldn't forget that overhead stays pretty much the same. Naturally, if production drops, transport costs go down too, but on the flip side, as customers get further and further away, the cost of shipping those specific volumes starts climbing.
Plus, operating costs are always more or less fixed regardless of what the market price for oil actually hits.

Mark Carter14 says:
I can't believe I'm reading this in the morning news 🤣

Warnings like these haven't been making it into the mainstream media until now... it feels like the wind is shifting lately.
Here is a fact many people seem to overlook: you aren't going to isolate Russia when you have two massive nations with 2.8 billion people combined standing in the way.
This is a very realistic scenario.[/I]

Who is stopping them from just trading amongst themselves? Honestly, they should just move all their trade internally and start slapping sanctions on Western countries instead.
Largest trading partners with India
1 United States
2 China
3 United Arab Emirates
7 Hong Kong
4 Saudi Arabia
6 Germany
9 South Korea
8 Indonesia
5 Switzerland
10 Malaysia
11 Singapore
12 Nigeria
13 Belgium
14 Qatar
15 Japan
16 Iraq
17 Kuwait
18 United Kingdom
19 Iran
20 Australia
21 Venezuela
22 South Africa

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_the_largest_trading_partners_of_India

Where exactly does Russia show up on this list?

Most of this military aid isn't even moving through the official border crossings anymore; they've built entirely new supply routes to handle it. Drivers and all personnel are strictly forbidden from carrying cell phones or any kind of electronic gear. Even official photographers have to keep geolocation turned off on their cameras—I’m talking about the guys documenting the convoys, not just random trucks. Before anything gets posted online, intelligence services vet every single shot, which basically makes the footage useless because you can't spot a single house or landmark in them.

Plus, the locations are being shifted around daily.
Just tell me how Russia is supposed to intercept this at a specific spot if we're talking, say, 10 trucks in a row.
Ukraine
50.022712, 23.203476

You really need to check out this Russian guy. Just turn on the subtitles and set them to whatever language you prefer. This isn't about politics; he’s just making fun of all the ridiculous new laws and half-baked ideas being pushed by the Russian cronies.
Take this importer who managed to sell more scooters and bikes in two weeks than he usually moves in two years. It's wild.

Will smuggling become legal? Why did we buy buckwheat and sugar? Solutions in Crisis | Russia and Ukraine


Oh, and there's a massive shortage of paper—specifically the receipt paper for cash registers. They passed a law stating that if you're caught holding onto a surplus of register paper, you'll be fined.
We're seeing shortages in everything: tampons, shampoo, cosmetics, flour, salt, you name it.
Naturally, Moscow is well-stocked while the rural provinces are left with nothing.

Just wait. These guys are going to show you how Russia actually thrives under sanctions, while IKEA, Germany, and the rest of the European Union just go broke. Both Russia and the USA are winning here.


Jovan Mrgodic
10 Hours ago
We’ll find a way to survive regardless. Just imagine what's happening to those Swedes...

Rogozin Said that Russia itself will send a Mission to Mars
and they’re planning on doing it via an even bigger and more beautiful route 😁😁
https://www.interfax.ru/russia/829824

These people have truly lost it. This whole thing is pure insanity.