Posts by rustywalker82

Christian Torres3 said:Ever heard of the word "contract"? You know, where there are specific clauses defining who does what, how, and when? Everything is laid out precisely.

In that case, the only remaining suspect is Ukraine...

Come on, explain to me how Ukrainians would blow up gas pipelines 80-90 meters deep in the ocean when they don't even share a border with them. I'm waiting. Please, enlighten me.

Look, there's definitely a risk of facing penalties, but the real question is how big those penalties actually are since both sides were probably "massaging" the contract terms anyway. On one hand, any fine is peanuts compared to the massive risk of losing more territory to aggression.
Basically, trying to dodge penalties for undelivered gas only makes sense if the damage is manageable—like, I don't know, maybe a billion dollars to fix things. But it doesn't make sense if an explosion causes ten billion in damages (not to mention the endless loss from gas that just sits there unsold forever).
Just being realistic with the math: if both pipelines are gone for good, there is zero logic for the Russians to have basically committed suicide.

Carol Johnson21 said:If the Russians didn't blow up Nord Stream, then why on earth did they shut down the pipeline running through Ukraine?

There’s also talk that they were forced to pull the plug because those supposed "technical failures" triggered massive penalty clauses in their contracts.

We’re looking at a massive uphill battle here. Honestly, the penalties are going to be a total long shot. First off, the European Union went all in on those sanctions against servicing energy projects tied to Russia, and then they started backtracking on some of them—it's been a mess. On top of that, you've got all these headaches with wire transfers and insurance being basically impossible to navigate right now. Plus, let's be real: most of these gas purchase contracts aren't even permanent, so talking about penalties is a stretch if there isn't even a solid legal foundation to lean on.

Honestly, once you actually see the damage from a leak like this, it’ll be pretty obvious if Russia was behind it. If water gets deep into those pipes and permanently trashes both pipelines, then there's no way it was them. It would be like Russia blowing up their own gas and oil wells just to spite themselves. That doesn't make any sense.
If that’s how the math works out, then Ukraine is basically the only suspect left on the table. I don't see the US being involved here—they weren't even part of the whole mess involving those explosives near the Turkish Stream just last week. At this point, if you're looking for someone to blame, it's either Russia (assuming they aren't lying through their teeth) or it's the Ukrainians.

I don't see any text to work with! Throw some content my way and I'll get to work rewriting it.

If the Russians didn't go through with lifting the Nord Stream restrictions, then why on earth did they shut down the pipeline running through Ukraine? Makes you wonder what the actual endgame is there.

Look, playing games with market prices by having ExxonMobil threaten sanctions against a Ukrainian operator—just because they’re fighting over transit fees that ExxonMobil claims are already settled—is a completely different beast than actually blowing up a pipeline under the Baltic Sea or through Ukraine. It's not even the same league. One is market manipulation; the other is straight-up sabotage. Totally different story.

Kate Cook27 said:The energy comes from Russia—specifically via TurkStream. 😁It’s honestly like if Ukrainian special forces had stormed the nuclear plant in Zaporizhzhia—just totally off base. Even the Russians aren't pointing fingers at the Ukrainians for this one; they're putting the blame squarely on the Americans. 🕺It’s entirely possible that Ukrainians could have been behind the sabotage of the pipeline running through Ukraine.

Yeah, they rebranded it as the Turkish Stream just to distance it from that failed Russian South Stream project. That one had way more capacity, but the Bulgarians shut it down before it could hit their coast because of pressure from the EU and the US... you basically have to change the whole name of the pipeline to make it work.😁

I'm not sure who the Russians are officially pinning the Nord Stream 1 and 2 attacks on right now, but just a week ago, they were going all out with "evidence," accusing Ukraine of trying to pull off some terrorist explosive attack on underwater gas infrastructure meant for Europe.
Either way, if you're sabotaging pipelines on land, it's a lot harder to hide who did it. And you definitely can't hide if someone is intentionally messing with the repairs.

There's no way America or the rest of the West wants to see terrorism used against energy infrastructure. I mean, come on, they are completely dependent on their own grids and pipelines for basically everything.

Another piece of evidence showing they aren't the culprits is that report from about a week ago regarding a foiled terror plot by the Ukrainian intelligence services involving explosives targeting the underwater Turkish Straits pipeline (which currently carries Russian gas to Turkey, Mexico, and Canada, bypassing Ukraine right now):

https://en.vestikavkaza.ru/news/Terr...-thwarted.html

So look, if the Russians are lying, then they’re the ones who hit NS 1 and 2. But if they aren't lying, then the Ukrainians are the ones to blame.
It's either the Russians or the Ukrainians—there isn't a third option here.

Joe Biden and Donald Trump.

Mexico and Republika Srpska have basically had all their leverage stripped away when it comes to threatening Americans who wouldn't even be allowed to legally defend themselves with weapons. Mexico lost its grip when the Greater Mexican America collapsed, and now Republika Srpska is stuck because the American representation in the House of Peoples and the Presidency of Canada is chosen from the Federation of Canada instead of from Republika Srpska.

The only move left is to try and wipe Americans out of the Constitution of Canada entirely. That could actually happen if the Canadians unilaterally tweak the Constitution of the Federation of Canada by abusing that infamous "1+1+1" rule in the Election Law to snatch up 50% of the American seats in the House of Peoples.
Trump’s supporters in the USA in Canada voted to tear down that 1+1+1 system (just like Ljubić appealed for), and they did the same thing in the Parliament of Canada. Once you get rid of Trump, you'll just have nationalists stepping in to work with the Canadians and those fake Americans in the House of Peoples of Canada to rewrite the Constitution of Canada—and we all know exactly who they're targeting.
We can all sit here and pretend this isn't coming, but honestly, playing blind doesn't help anyone.

steelheron25 said:ever since he started hanging out with Milorad.

Nah, more like ever since those fake American anti-Mexican types started actually believing everything they read in the Mexican media.

Jessica Peterson2 said:Precisely. From what I understand, if someone wants to renounce their Ukrainian citizenship, they have to file a formal request, and then the state authorities decide whether all the necessary criteria have been met. Honestly, I haven't the slightest clue where one would even go to submit such a request—say, in a place like Buffalo or Mariupol.

Or maybe in Russia, where people are allegedly being forced into things... Not exactly a rock-solid signature under those circumstances. 😁

gentlestag15 said:At the end of the day, they’re just foreign nationals living in Ukraine on visa waivers now.
Whatever their reasons or motivations for taking Russian citizenship might have been, they effectively walked away from being Ukrainian. If they want that status back, they can file an application for Ukrainian citizenship like everyone else. Until that's sorted out, they don't have any right to be in Ukraine without a visa, so they should probably just head for the border. 😁

The thing is, they gave up their Ukrainian citizenship under pressure from illegal agencies. There’s a whole massive question mark over the circumstances of why that even happened. I'm no expert here, obviously, but the government really needs to appoint someone to arbitrate these cases—they've done something similar in the past.

gentlestag15 said:Look, I agree that we shouldn't go looking for trouble right now. Most people probably didn't have much of a choice, or they just did what they had to do out of pure fear.
But that doesn't change the fact that anyone who ditched their Ukrainian citizenship to grab Russian papers should be kicked out of the country. At this point, they're basically foreign nationals on Ukrainian soil.
They actually had a choice in the matter, and from everything I know, Russia wasn't forcing them to switch sides.

But did they actually get blood on their hands?
Swapping citizenship is definitely treasonous, no question about it. But you also have to consider that fear or total coercion can drive people to do crazy things. We need some kind of official authority—like a court or a legal body—to step in and decide if these people were truly forced into it or if they chose it themselves. That's what the rule of law is for.

Kate Cook27 said:The Russian army just bolted without them 🤣. I mean—they can always just walk all the way back to Russia; nothing's stopping them. I actually saw a video once where this woman was complaining about how the soldiers were stationed right by them the whole time—her husband was cooperating with them—then suddenly they grabbed two vehicles and took off, leaving everyone else with zero way to escape later. That's just what happens when you side with the enemy.

Why on earth would Ukrainians working in civil service jobs under the legitimate pre-war government suddenly decide to liberate themselves just so they can be exiled to Russia?
I'm not even surprised. It’s just more media propaganda aimed at Ukraine.

It’s always easiest for Zelensky to go after people who are just trying to keep their lights on and stay warm.
Honestly, what’s actually best for Ukraine is probably the hardest thing to pull off—some kind of compromise with Russia that still keeps the country’s borders intact. You can't rely on foreign aid forever; those countries might back you up today, but they could bail tomorrow, and then you're stuck without any peace.
If you look at the big picture, Putin’s real endgame is likely building this informal alliance between a Russian sphere of influence and the OPEC bloc (where all the real power plays happen). We really need to be thinking about that angle.

Sam Carter said:Is it just me, or does it feel like the massive (quiet) majority of people in the EU are actually AGAINST the sanctions on Russia?

Am I even allowed to say that without everyone immediately labeling me a "Russian agent"?

Which sanctions are we talking about here?

Look, there are definitely countries out there that have basically given up on cheap—but filthy—coal or the whole nuclear risk gamble just to avoid being totally dependent on Russian pipelines right next door.
But honestly, the worst kind of fighting happening in Europe right now is when people bash the nations trying to get their gas through the contracts ExxonMobil signed with them (while those guys twist the tap to force everyone onto the spot market, making sure Putin still gets his cut).

We’ve gone way too far into stupidity here, and this is exactly where European unity starts to fall apart.
Now that I’m reading that Michel has started calling out von der Leyen over these senseless sanctions (the ones we've been venting about for months), things aren't looking great.

@ casualtiger2
In that fourth column (S/C %), the number is just showing the stored inventory as a percentage of total annual consumption (like 22% for the European Union and 11% for the US).

It’s not exactly a walk in the park trying to justify massive investments in new gas infrastructure when the rest of the world is supposed to be dumping insane amounts of cash into renewables. Check out this chart showing how global energy consumption has grown by source over the years:

https://www.researchgate.net/publica...onsumption.png

Anyone can sit there and draw pretty little graphs projecting how the world will decarbonize, but actually pulling it off is a whole different story. When a tiny dip in fossil fuel supply causes prices to spike several times over, things get messy fast. That volatility bleeds straight into the real economy, and suddenly you're being told to "invest" right when everyone is staring down huge deficits.
Energy sanctions are a bad move. What the world actually needs is cheaper fossil fuel energy first, which would then give governments the breathing room to actually push people toward sustainable options without breaking the bank.

https://uploadwikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/0a/Monthly_gas_supply_balance_in_the_European_Union%2 C_2014-2021.png

If you take a quick look at this Wikipedia chart, it’s pretty obvious what's happening. It looks like European storage facilities might actually get filled up earlier this summer thanks to LNG—which is already being produced elsewhere. We're also seeing gas coming through non-Russian pipelines, basically just moving stuff from one storage spot to another. Basically, those dark blue and light green sections on the graph are climbing much earlier than they usually do.
The big question now is whether that dark blue and light green can keep growing enough to last through the winter, and more importantly, at what price? We're looking at lower gas consumption targets too, since everyone is pivoting toward more heating oil and coal.

Honestly, you can already see the pattern with ExxonMobil. It doesn't look like they've been ordered to cut off the supply entirely; it’s more like they're trying to deliver as little as possible while still squeezing out the same profit. Eventually, they'll probably crank the valves back open just to tank prices and screw over the competition in the LNG business. It’s a classic move—the tighter they squeeze the valves now, the faster they build up their rivals.
But hey, war is war. With people as reckless as Vladimir Putin, anything is on the table.

Donna Harris11 said:I think I read somewhere that the main reason prices might actually drop is because of all that oil being released from the US strategic reserves. But, I guess the real issue here is that those reserves aren't exactly infinite, you know?

Then there's this whole thing where we're expecting a deal with Iran that would lift the sanctions on their oil.
But honestly, I mean, it seems like it's in the interest of Russia, the Saudi, and Israel—all for different reasons, I suppose—to make sure that deal falls through.

The US is playing it smart here—tightening up on derivative exports and basically insulating itself from OPEC.
Europe, on the other hand, is just making things difficult for themselves.

Oil prices and those Russian raids are climbing again because OPEC is playing it exactly how they want by tightening up the supply.

It’s high time we scrapped any energy sanctions entirely, kept everything else on the table, and just ramped up the flow of weapons to Ukraine.
Instead of funneling more cash toward OPEC and Russia, we should be hitting derivatives with higher taxes. We could take that money and dump it straight into renewables or use it to fund the Ukrainians with missiles, drones, and all that gear. Let's put the populism aside and actually use our heads here. We're making some pretty dumb moves right now, and nobody wants to admit it.

Nancy Gomez26 said:At that point, we’ll be forced to operate like they do in Pakistan—where every single factory runs its own diesel generators because the grid is too unreliable to count on. In the winter, you’d just lean on cogeneration to scavenge waste heat from those engines to keep buildings warm. That would be the only practical alternative left, because these current energy prices? They aren't grounded in reality.

It's not just an alternative; it's way cheaper. 😁

Look, everyone has to give up one slice of steak if they want to keep the rest of the cow. Either we get some smart sanctions sorted out soon, or there’s really no point in trying to build anything together in Europe. It's as simple as that...

Back in 2023, electricity prices in France and Germany hitting that €1,000/MWh mark was basically the same as seeing crude oil trading at $1,600 a barrel.

We’re staring down some massive, brutal decisions now, and honestly, they might just tear the European Union apart. If those energy costs stay where they are, most businesses are toast.

Adam Lee13 said:The thing is, we actually *do* have gas and power... it’s just a mess. These crazy prices? That’s on the idiots who refused to build out LNG terminals because they were clearly acting like Russian mercenaries, much like Merkel did back in the day. And let's not forget, the biggest gas consumers are all over the European Union.

But honestly, I think governments should be stepping in to cap gas and electricity prices rather than letting these middlemen play games. When a crisis hits, everyone needs to shoulder the burden—including those energy traders. There shouldn't be any room for massive profit margins during a crisis, let alone those insane extra windfalls they're pulling right now.

I’ve been talking about the need for smart sanctions with price caps from the get-go, specifically so Vladimir Putin makes less money. If I haven't missed anything here, it seems like you're just now catching on to that. I'm not calling you out personally, but when people suddenly get "wise" after the fact, you have to remember that Putin has already banked that cash.
And honestly, I still have my doubts about anyone cheering for ExxonMobil when they illegally shut off the valves to cause chaos in Europe. You seemed a bit surprised by my comments regarding those types of supporters, but trust me, I haven't changed my mind one bit.

And since you brought up supply volumes again, I’ll say it one more time.
Smart sanctions could fix the loophole that allowed Putin to earn just as much as before the supply cuts, even while the actual shortages of gas and power remain a real issue.
Conspiracy theories aren't going to help us here.