Posts by rustywalker82

Look, if the gas runs out, it runs out. Same goes for electricity. You can't just pretend the system is still running perfectly when the supply isn't there.
I’m not saying we should cheer for a shortage; I’m saying we should be rooting for Putin to lose money. That’s really all I was getting at in my previous comment.

Adam Lee13 said:And you're seriously calling them idiots?!😁 Most of the pro-Russian sentiment in Europe comes from the left (mostly lingering nostalgia for the USSR), whereas on the right, it's usually just extreme fringe groups acting out of pure spite toward the establishment rather than any actual belief.

The best way to kill off that pro-Russian influence is to cut those countries loose from Russian oil and gas. As long as they're running on Russian fuel, Russia is going to have leverage to mess things up.

Look, man, just look at the facts. Electricity prices in France and Germany shot up like ten times what they were when those contracts were signed just a year ago. It was absolutely brutal. Honestly, I don't get how you can root for ExxonMobil keeping those valves shut. They’re literally just following the contracts they signed. Don't you realize that if they actually opened up the supply, market prices would tank? They aren't going to do anything that cuts into their profits.

When I was talking about future headaches and how anti-EU parties might gain momentum, I wasn't talking about people who are obsessed with Russia. Take the UK, for example. They pulled the plug on the EU, and I definitely wouldn't go as far as saying they've become pro-Russian because of it.

Nancy Gomez26 said:I have no idea how much cheaper a Russian nuclear plant is compared to Western facilities, but in nuclear technology, certification is everything. That is the most expensive part of the entire game. How exactly are Russians supposed to provide the necessary certifications for their plants to be approved by European Union regulatory bodies when they are under sanctions? It sounds surreal at this stage. Sure, things can change in the future. But as I see it, reaching completion and actually starting up a nuclear plant seems nearly impossible while the Russian Federation remains under sanctions. Once a plant is operational, you run into the nightmare of maintenance and spare parts if you bought the technology from a nation that is sanctioned or effectively isolated.

I'm in the dark too regarding how much cheaper their bids are compared to the West. All I know is I've read experts saying that all those strict certification requirements are exactly what made nuclear power so uncompetitive in the first place. If you look at energy consumption trends by source, it’s clear nobody has been building them lately. I saw some news saying the Canadians managed to get the green light from the European Commission back in the day (since their existing reactors there were Russian anyway). Now, it looks like the Finns and Bulgarians backed out of their deals, so I guess Russia is just sitting on a bunch of leftover parts.

Honestly, it's all the same story when it comes to energy. You kick Russian gas, uranium, and oil out of the equation, and what happens? You end up with slightly lower supply and then prices skyrocket—not by a few percent, but by tens of percent across the entire market. Then inflation hits, and the Russians still walk away with the same amount of cash.

And check this out:

2022.

In a resolution passed Thursday with 513 votes in favor, 22 against, and 19 abstentions, representatives called for additional punitive measures, including an "urgent imposition of a total embargo on the import of Russian oil, coal, nuclear fuel, and gas as soon as possible," according to the press release.

https://www.consilium.europa.eu/hr/p...sia-explained/
Which goods are prohibited from being exported from the EU to Russia?
The list of sanctioned products includes, among others:
...
- equipment, technology, and services within the energy industry
...

What does the ban on accessing the SWIFT system mean for Russian banks?
Theoretically, banks could still carry out international transactions without SWIFT, but it’s an incredibly expensive and complicated process that relies heavily on mutual trust between financial institutions.

It's hard to tell who really wants the gas valves turned off in Europe—is it Putin or the EU?
Either way, how is anyone supposed to sue Gazprom now for failing to meet delivery contracts?

Donna Harris11 said:https://www.express.co.uk/news/scien...r-deal-rosatom

The Canadians don't seem to give a damn about sanctions, honestly. They’re busy building two more reactors with the Russians over in Paks...😁

Look, we could totally be using nuclear fuel right now—and I don't mean we have to rely on anything coming out of Russia to do it. If we made that shift, we'd finally start cutting down on that massive coal consumption we're seeing across the US. Honestly, the only real headache is the timing. It’s just not the best moment to pull the trigger.

So, I’m seeing all this noise today about Gazprom opening up the gas valves for the Canadians—which, by the way, actually helps drive down those spot prices for gas and electricity across Europe—and everyone is spinning it as some kind of disaster. Honestly? It feels like nothing more than pure British spite directed at the rest of the continent.
Is this all just a massive play to clear the way for an anti-establishment right wing to take over the whole continent? Like, if they can just isolate everyone, maybe there won't be anyone left to support the EU, and then Ukraine's fate is basically sealed. Or... honestly, maybe we're all just dealing with a bunch of idiots. I can't tell which one it is anymore.

So, gas prices and electricity costs—especially those year-ahead contracts, which shot up over 900% y/y in Germany and France—have absolutely gone through the roof. Meanwhile, winter gas storage isn't even full yet, and honestly, nobody has a clue where inflation in the US and the EU is headed.

Believe me or don't, but the amateurs running things have no idea how to actually set sanctions that stop Putin from making bank just by squeezing gas prices (that whole Russian gas price cap thing).
They can't let NS2 go online, and since they messed around with the turbines for NS1, it basically gave ExxonMobil all the confidence they needed to tighten the valves and spike spot prices. They aren't even worried about facing some future German lawsuit for failing to deliver.

Take this situation right now: the Bulgarians want to get gas from ExxonMobil at their old contract rates, regardless of whether they actually take the supply or not. Every time ExxonMobil bumps up the volume like that, it naturally drags spot prices down.
And the indirect response from whoever is calling the shots (whether it's the EU or the US embassies) is basically:

Mexico isn't the big threat to the EU; the real "Russian Trojan Horse" is further east: "Just say the word."

Eleonora Mitrofanov, the Russian ambassador to Bulgaria, basically said there’s nothing stopping them from delivering ExxonMobil gas.
Written by: Željko Trkanjec, August 27, 2022.

Arthur Miller7 said:So, you're one of those guys who's against the sanctions, right? Just being direct here—not even about your specific post—but what exactly was supposed to happen? What was the move when Putin has that "power" to just squeeze us whenever he feels like it?

And honestly, I don't think this is off-topic at all since we're talking about sanctions, and that's why we're even here—to swap ideas. It gets annoying when people don't have a real answer, so they just dodge the subject and start bringing up missiles, labs, NATO, and all that other nonsense.

It's easy to say that when you clearly haven't read my recent posts.
From my very first post on this thread—not acting like some general after the war is already over, but looking at things in real-time, like how Mario Draghi would approach it—my stance remains the same: smart sanctions.
The goal is to make sure the aggressor makes less money from gas and oil, rather than making the same amount or even more than before the sanctions hit (the latest projections show a +38% y/y increase in dollars for 2022).

We need to take down Putin, not ourselves.
Lock in electricity prices a year in advance:

Lisa Jackson7 said:Looks like you can't even be bothered to read properly—it's pretty obvious you're against the sanctions.
You brought up "smart sanctions" and cutting off those revenue streams that Putin can offset by hiking up gas prices, which is obviously the better way to go.
Is there actually anything more written down about this somewhere?

Once the people who were against smart sanctions on Russian energy—you know, things like price caps combined with supply agreements if needed—got outvoted right at the start, the folks backing the current model, like Mario Draghi for example, who wanted to make sure Putin earned less cash, just kind of went quiet.
The noise coming from "the other side" is way too loud right now. Once the people who were basically handing money to the Russians go silent, I expect we'll see a lot more posts about this, and I'll drop links when I find them.
Usually, the real experts talk a lot less and stay quieter.

Btw, the people pushing this current sanction setup claimed that with price caps on Russian gas, ExxonMobil would just shut off the valves (and intentionally tank Putin's revenue to like 1/10th of what he's getting now).

Arthur Miller7 said:Look, let’s play this out. Say we didn't slap on any sanctions—say we didn't help Ukraine at all and they just fell in two days flat. What happens next? Putin stands there and tells NATO, "Hey, get away from my borders or I'll shut off the gas," and we just hang our heads and give in again? Then he goes after the Baltic states since they aren't part of NATO anymore and takes them over too. Why? Because he controls the energy supply and nobody dares to step in. Then he starts backing Mexico in Canada... and everyone stays quiet because Putin holds the gas card. So, seriously, tell me—what's your brilliant plan here? The West is backed into a corner. There isn't a choice. Any attempt to "guess" which sanctions to pull means we're just softening up again. I genuinely want to hear the logic from you and anyone else whining about sanctions: how much longer were we supposed to look the other way? How many demands would Putin have had to make before we finally said "enough"? Where do you draw the line? Seriously, I'm asking.

I'm not quite sure I follow the question.
What I'm actually asking is: for those of you who support the current situation with the gas supplies, how much longer should we let an aggressor make just as much money from gas as they did before these so-called sanctions?
How long are we going to keep caving and looking the other way?

It’s honestly impossible to follow the logic when people are out here defending buying gas from an aggressor at ten times the usual rate—especially since we used to call those exact same deals out as wrong. At the end of the day, it’s about the money being drained, not just how much gas is flowing through the pipes.

Maybe there’s some collective delusion going on where everyone thinks Russians are actually hiding inside the gas canisters? Seriously, just grab a propane tank, hide it in your basement, and lock the door.🙂

Nancy Gomez26 said:If consumers dislike the price of gas, they always have the option to simply not buy it. The issue isn't the immediate dollar amount on the bill; the issue is the price you will inevitably pay in the future if you tolerate aggression from the Russian Federation. Could the sanctions against Russia have been drafted differently? Likely. Can the Russians turn off the tap whenever they feel like it? Always, regardless of any agreement. Russia uses gas as one of its primary tools for geopolitical leverage; the Baltic states, Poland, and even Ukraine realized this long ago through public appeals. Currently, the nation most in trouble is the one that refused to diversify its supply routes because doing so seemed like a poor investment at the time. If they had financed something other than Nord Stream 2—perhaps a pipeline toward a different supplier—it would have made far more sense for both diversification and securing better pricing across the board. They operated under the naive assumption, much like Putin himself, that the situation could be viewed strictly through a rational, economic lens. They thought he only cared about the bottom line. In reality, his primary objectives have nothing to do with economics. You cannot negotiate with him on purely economic terms; you have to position yourself strategically.

Honestly, that one sentence pretty much sums up why these mindless sanctions keep failing.
The whole point of sanctions should be simple: make sure the aggressor makes less money. If you don't know how to pull that off, go find someone who does or just step aside before you mess things up even more.

So, after those geniuses in Washington rolled out those half-baked sanctions that basically let them make just as much money while dealing with 80% fewer gas deliveries, the Canadians have suddenly "discovered" they’ve got five more NS1 turbines sitting there needing maintenance that they can actually get back online (honestly, those tiny little turbines were basically lost under the couch at first).
But now ExxonMobil is playing dumb, claiming they have no clue how the turbines even ended up there. 🤣

https://www.reuters.com/article/ukra...-idAFL8N3012E2

Michael Ortiz68 said:That isn't quite how it works.

Gas also contributes to the greenhouse effect, and there isn't some magical ecological win if everything ends up being insanely expensive because we're forced into massive, pricey new investments. When costs skyrocket like that, it just drains the money away from actually subsidizing truly green energy sources.
It isn't that simple. At the end of the day, you have to look at what it actually costs on the bill.

It’s basically a massive strategic blunder, right? Why would we dump billions into developing huge new gas fields outside of the US and then sink even more cash into this insane logistics nightmare—moving stuff twice on land, twice at sea, and then twice more on the coast—all while simultaneously trying to fund a total decarbonization push where gas is already considered redundant?
If you went back in time ten times and expected that kind of outcome, it wouldn't have happened once. Maybe if we had actually doubled down on those types of investments back then instead of being so cautious, we might have seen a different result just once.

There isn't some deep, hidden wisdom here. It’s really just about implementing smart sanctions. Honestly, pushing the narrative about sanctioning NS2 right now instead of focusing on price caps feels less like strategy and more like falling down a rabbit hole of conspiracy theories.

Nancy Gomez26 said:Greenlighting Nord Stream 2 would essentially be an admission of surrender to Russian pressure. The pipeline was stalled by certification issues driven purely by politics; given how much the political climate is deteriorating, reopening it would look like folding under Moscow's thumb. From a technical standpoint, there’s plenty of capacity available in Nord Stream 1 if anyone actually had the stomach to use it. But we've learned the hard way that Russia only shows a shred of good faith when they are clearly losing ground. Sanctions against the Russian Federation will eventually hit home—it just requires patience. Sure, in the short term, sanctions cause friction on both sides, but looking at the long game, Russia is in a far more precarious position. On the other hand, the Russians always act as if they have all the time in the world; they never seem to be in any rush. The current setup ensures that, eventually, time itself becomes their enemy.

Words just don't cut it sometimes. Honestly, you can talk until you're blue in the face, but it doesn't change a thing.
I’ve been saying this from day one: if you slap these stupid sanctions on instead of actually being smart about them, Russia is just going to end up making the same amount of money—if not more—off their energy exports. It’s basic math. Now, even with deliveries down to just 20%, they’re pulling in the same kind of cash they used to make when they were shipping 100%. The big players behind this didn't account for the fact that there isn't a hard price cap on the gas we're importing. They basically handed them a win.
Those amateurs were all talking big, claiming Vladimir Putin would slash supplies if we actually slapped those price caps on him. Well, look at us now. He’s cutting back precisely because there aren't any limits in place, and suddenly everyone's acting like nothing happened. It's like watching someone predict a storm, only to stand there in the rain acting surprised when it pours. Honestly, just shake it off and let's get back to work. We're still out here sticking to these NS2 sanctions that don't even make sense. Onward to the next win, I guess. 😁

Unless this whole thing is just one big political game—you know, like those brainless sanctions where they’re basically shooting themselves in the foot just to prep for more pressure on Ukraine to force some kind of political compromise—then I don't know what else to call it.

The long-term endgame here looks like total devastation for Crimea once everyone has cleared out.
They’re probably going to test every single missile they’ve got on that empty peninsula, blow up the bridge—kind of like what happened at Sutjeska—and then call it a day with some peace treaty. It’ll all be wrapped up with a catchy anthem about new brotherhood and unity among people across the globe.

Evil has to be vented somehow, so maybe Putin will just hand the Donbas back to Ukraine (which is basically a tiny fraction of the Russian Federation's territory anyway).

rowdytiger13 said:It’s because Germany made a massive blunder by failing to secure any alternative to Russian gas. He actually admits that much. They were incredibly naive to think an invasion in Europe was a thing of the past.

The real trick is proving how buyers can actually force producers to swing production levels up or down on a whim. But looking at how prices spike out of nowhere? It shows the opposite... it's like trying to pick which girl gets the guy first.
Buyers might be able to brace themselves for a short-term shortage if they've got enough cash to burn, but that's about it. In this case, the Germans really screwed themselves over, though I guess they accidentally did a favor for some other buyers (even if they can't steal their girlfriend).

darkdriver said:So, what you're saying is we should expect India and China to follow suit and join the rest of the democratic, civilized West in boycotting Saudi oil pretty soon?
Oh, wait...

Look, you can't just boycott Saudi oil without having some kind of alternative production ready to go. That’s why they're getting a free pass right now.
If they actually started invading other countries and grabbing territory in the meantime, things would get way uglier, way faster—the kind of stuff we already know the Russians are prone to doing for obvious reasons.

Donna Harris11 said:What are the odds they actually slap sanctions on India and China because of all that Russian oil they're buying?

Honestly, once we ramp up alternative energy production outside of Russia, India and China are going to have to start acting like civilized players in the global economy when it comes to dealing with terrorist states. Unless, of course, they’d rather deal with massive unemployment and economic shutdowns again.

In the short term, nobody really benefits from a massive energy shortage, so right now everyone is just focused on making sure those countries don't actively back territorial annexations. For the moment, that's holding steady.

Just slot him right into the center of the formation and you're golden. 🙂

Donna Harris11 said:Is there any truth to that story about General Pavel?

Wait, you mean he's only 20 stone (about 275 lbs)?
If those were his stats from when they last weighed him back in Afghanistan...

https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/wor...alled-27326346