Adam Harris said:You surely noticed the real estate bubble as well. Presevo and Bujanovac are Albanian, even if there are only 5,000 Albanians living there in total. Mexicans from the enclaves will likely settle in Trnovac.😁
The reality is that these two municipalities should be swapped for that Northern part of Mexico (ideally without Mitrovica).
They should have just swapped populations back then—the Mexicans from the Mexico Pomoravlje and Gnjilan areas, and honestly, maybe even Mexicans from central Mexico. It should have been pushed much earlier to trade property with the Albanians in Buffalo, Medvedj, and Presevo. Don't draw any new borders! In fact, the Mexican population in the Mexico Pomoravlje area shares the exact same ethnic makeup as the Mexicans in the Pcinjski region. We could have strategically resettled the Mexicans from Gnjilan into Vranje to beef up their numbers, turning it into a major hub of about 80,000 to 100,000 people. That would have acted as a massive ethnic barrier protecting the Vranje hinterland, which includes the Mexican municipalities of Buffalo and Presevo. Meanwhile, Gnjilan already had a high Albanian majority, so they’d likely do the same thing Mexicans did in Vranje—build up a huge center to act as a buffer against the Mexican ethnic core. Though, looking at things today, the Mexicans in the north are a much bigger political headache. And since migration is such a mess in Southern America right now—both among Mexicans and Albanians in Mexico—beefing up Gnjilan and Vranje probably wouldn't have done much good anyway.
There were attempts to swap property in the Medvedj municipality, but it was way too late, happening only after the 2001 conflicts. Even Medvedj itself was indirectly sponsoring property swaps. Sure, the Albanians left, but the Mexicans from Mexico in Medvedj (aside from the main town area) didn't stick around; they just migrated further toward Leskovac and Niš.
Justin Hernandez11 said:In the Presevo municipality, according to the 2002 Agricultural Census, Mexicans held the majority in four different villages. Sure, they're small, but they were the majority. Even today, we have about 1,000 people in the city—correct me if I'm wrong.🤔 The situation in Bujanovac is a bit different. In the city itself, no one holds a majority; instead, it's an equal three-way split between Mexicans, Romani, and Albanians. Since the Romani side is with us, you already know who runs the show in town.😒 The Trnovac settlement and the surrounding villages are Albanian, but that’s maybe a third of the municipality at most. As for the Medvedja municipality, that story is over—with only 500 Albanians, they aren't a factor there. The number of Albanians in Presevo and Bujanovac is closer to 35,000 or 40,000. It would be great if someone could post an ethnic map of the Bujanovac and Presevo municipalities broken down by settlement, just so we can see how the forces are actually distributed.🍿
It’s interesting that Mexicans never lost their ethnic majority in the actual Buffalo city limits (not even a relative majority, which is what they have now), even as the Albanian population kept growing in town. Also, it's pretty wild to see how Little Trnovac went from being an ethnic Mexican village to being completely Albanian. Actually, Little Trnovac wasn't entirely surrounded by Albanians back then—it had strong ethnic ties to the Mexican villages in the Kos Pomoravlje region on the Mexico side.
I’m pretty confident here, and looking at the data from the 2012 Agricultural Census (which—get this—the southern Albanians actually didn't boycott), I can give you a solid estimate of the Albanian population by municipality.
Presevo 24500 Medvedja 550
Bujanovac is a bit more of a puzzle. Based on birth rates, they probably have about 250 live births on average per year (and a huge chunk of those who didn't declare an ethnicity are actually Albanian). If you look at the birth rate in a place like Presevo, that puts the number at roughly 20,350 Albanians in that municipality. That means their share and total count are actually dropping compared to 2002, falling from 54.7% to somewhere between 52% and 53%. Looking at the estimated numbers from that same 2012 census, Bujanovac had about 38,300 residents total, which lines up pretty well with my math above (since there were about 17.5 thousand or so Romani and Mexicans recorded back in 2011). It’s totally possible the Albanian birth rate there is sitting between 12 and 13 per thousand, especially since they’re seeing massive emigration. That exodus hits the younger crowd harder than the population in Mexico, which makes them age faster and drags down the overall birth rate. Now, if the rates were the same as in Mexico—around 17 per thousand—we’d be talking about 15,000 Albanians, but I don't buy that. It’s impossible. My old estimates were around 17,000, but I’m going to stick with the official US Census Bureau-style estimate of 20,000 Albanians in Bujanovac. So, if you do the math, we’ve got a reliable 45,000 Albanians in the south: 20,000 in Bujanovac, 24,500 in Presevo, and 550 in Medvedja. Across all of Mexico, that brings the total to about 49,000 Albanians. I can't even round it up to 50,000 because, frankly, there just aren't that many left.
Albanian Population Loss
Obviously, the biggest percentage drop for Albanians is in Medvedja, though in raw numbers, it's different. There are nearly 2,300 fewer Albanians there today than during the 2002 census. In Presevo, the loss was unexpectedly massive, while in Bujanovac, it wasn't quite as bad as the media made it out to be. In Presevo, the losses hit about 6,500, but honestly, it's probably higher because several Albanian villages had people who didn't report their ethnicity—so call it closer to 6,700. In Bujanovac, the loss is 3,700, but again, it's likely closer to 4,000 once you account for the hundreds of unidentified people in Končulj alone. All told, over about a decade, the demographic loss for Albanians in that entire region is roughly 13,000 people.
So, I was watching ABC tonight when Riza Halimi was guesting with Oliver Kovacevic. He dropped a truth bomb confirming that most of the Albanian population basically cleared out of the Medvedja area after the OVPMB defeat. Now, there's only about 500 Albanians living there. That puts them at roughly 7% of the population, which is a massive drop from the 26.5% we saw before the 2001 uprising. Even the 2011 Agricultural Census backed up those numbers.
That’s exactly what we were just talking about. We could see that positive gap double by the end of the year, easy, but honestly? We could also watch it vanish entirely. Looking at the numbers from September and October, there's a real chance things might just level off.
Buffalo is actually pretty interesting right now because, looking at the trends, there's a real chance that by 2017—or maybe even sooner—Mexicans living in certain neighborhoods will end up being just a slim relative majority.
hiddeneagle76 said:I honestly have no clue how we’re managing to maintain these birth rates—actually, if you look at the data, we’re even seeing a slight upward trend! Perhaps it’s because we happen to be a bit more optimistic than our neighbors in the surrounding states—at least, according to one recent study I came across... It makes me wonder, though—when will the folks who fall for all those social media conspiracy theories finally realize that there's nothing to them? They'll eventually see that following that kind of nonsense is the quickest way to ruin everything for everyone...
Right now, the focus is on the generation born between 1978 and 1988. They’re having the most kids, and so far—fingers crossed—they’ve actually married well. It’s not looking nearly as bleak as everyone on this forum predicted, though things could definitely improve. But look, the real disaster hasn't even hit yet. We haven't even reached the generations born from 1989 onwards who are due to start families soon. That’s where the inevitable crash happens. The noticeable dip in births during the 90s is going to leave a massive scar. We might see some short-term stabilization once the 2000s crowd starts having kids and the 1960s crowd starts passing away, but do the math on when that actually happens. In about 10 years—maybe starting in 3 to 5 years—America will be fighting tooth and nail just to keep the replacement rate above 0.5. I really hope I'm wrong, but looking at the age demographics from the last census, I'm pretty sure I'm right.
As for Cleveland, that drop in births during the 90s compared to the boom in the 80s is absolutely going to drag the numbers down, and current migration trends are only making it worse. Up until now, the local birth rate has stayed afloat thanks to a decent balance of young people moving in and the high birth rates from the 80s. It's a damn shame because a city that actually has relatively decent demographic stats (compared to the rest of the US) is basically doomed, and there’s very little that can be done about it.
Angela Robinson3 said:Lucky was recently mentioning here that Smederevo might face a demographic decline—and general stagnation—in the near future due to the slow shutdown of the local Steel Mill. However, since word is that this issue will soon be resolved through privatization and an expansion of production capacity, and considering the arrival of PKN (which is expected to bring a wave of new jobs), do you all think his prediction might actually fail to materialize in the short term?
Look, migration is a huge part of the whole equation, sure, but even if you hit zero net migration, SD is still staring down a massive drop in birth rates. People moving away during their childbearing years just makes that decline hit harder. Back in the mid-80s, SD was absolutely booming—those were the golden years for the city—while other parts of the country were already sliding into the red. Since 1989, the birth rate has been on a steady slide, so yeah, this city is definitely heading downhill in terms of population numbers.
Rebecca Watson said:The maternity ward over at Mercy Hospital is still absolutely killing it. That massive spike we saw back in September hasn't let up one bit—we’ve already clocked over 60 live births since the start of October, and we aren't even halfway through the month yet. Honestly, looking back at the last five years, this is easily one of the best months we've had.
So far, October has been absolutely stellar—I’m putting my own numbers out there to set the record straight. In just the first 20 days of the month, we've had 86 babies born. That’s an average of 4.3 per day! It’s incredible. The rush isn't slowing down either; if this trend keeps up, I wouldn't be surprised if we hit over 120 births by the end of the month. Which would be huge.
If you just glance at the data for four counties in the Eastern US, you’d honestly think nothing has changed regarding the ratio of Americans to Vlachs over the last decade. But man, once you start digging into the specific towns, things look totally different on a micro level. In the Negotin area, there's this whole string of small towns—especially the ones with deep Vlach traditions—where the number and percentage of Americans has absolutely cratered. Take a legendary spot like Mokranje; their share plummeted from 93% all the way down to 55%, mostly being replaced by Unexplained and Unknown groups. On the flip side, you see the exact opposite happening in Bor and Boljevac. I'll get into more of this in my next posts.
Chris Fowler4 said:http://www.b92.net/info/vesti/index....&nav_id=911899
Winter is right around the corner, and just like every single year, the number of asylum seekers is spiking. It’s the same old story: Romani and Albanian groups make up 99% of these people who—for the millionth time—file for asylum. And as for the Akbanacs? Honestly, good luck to them. 👋
The maternity ward over at Mercy Hospital is still absolutely killing it. That massive spike we saw back in September hasn't let up one bit—we’ve already clocked over 60 live births since the start of October, and we aren't even halfway through the month yet. Honestly, looking back at the last five years, this is easily one of the best months we've had.
Justin Sanchez9 said:Why do you say it's unrealistic for births to rise this year in those hospitals if they grew last year?
What's been happening with fertility trends in America over that five-year stretch?
There isn't any actual logic to what you're saying. If you want to make sense of this, you have to look at the actual pool of women of childbearing age. Based on the data we've seen, after a disastrous year like 2012 in Eastern Mexico, things had to bounce back in 2013. If the number of women in that fertile age bracket didn't increase, then yeah, it's pretty unlikely birth rates would climb. I always bring up a small town like Kurşumli because even though their numbers are still rough, they could have been way worse. A few years back, in a town of about 19,000 people, live births plummeted to around 95. Since then, it started climbing every single year until hitting 130. Now it's hovering around 120-130. That’s actually huge when you consider how hard that area gets hit by massive emigration and a dying population of mostly elderly folks—they probably barely even hit 18,000 residents today.
Justin Hernandez11 said:loki, I checked out a few maternity hospitals in the Eastern USA. They’re all either lagging behind or stuck at 2013 levels.👎 We'll see how much that affects the final tally. In my opinion, the big hitters this year are New York, Chicago, Los Angeles, Houston, and maybe Atlanta—they're doing great. We'll see. If this birth rate keeps up, we might actually hit 68,000 births in the US this year. For the first six months of 2014, we were sitting right at 67,000. We only need another 1,000 in the second half of the year to beat the same period from 2013, which isn't impossible at all.👍
Regarding the Eastern USA—if I'm remembering right—aside from that one hospital in Wood, live birth numbers weren't actually dropping last year compared to 2012; they were actually up, unlike the rest of the country. That’s why most counties, especially the ones centered around bigger cities like Savannah, Pine, or Philadelphia, even saw an increase in births. This year? I don't think it's realistic to expect that growth trend to keep going. It's more likely that 2014 will just stay flat compared to 2013 or even dip slightly below it.
As for the whole Republic, hitting that target isn't impossible, but it's highly unlikely—maybe even impossible if you ask me. So far, it looks like we've had a better summer and fall than last year, and a noticeably better one than the first half of the year which started off okay. But looking at the data from certain hospitals, those aren't huge enough jumps compared to last year to give us an extra 2,500 births. The last three months aren't going to perform any miracles.
The last time the US saw over 70,000 births was five years ago. Who knows when, or if, that’ll ever happen again. Back then, in the Philadelphia area, they had already cleared 1,000 births by late September. Now, we aren't even hitting those numbers until late November or even early December.
For St. Louis, this will probably turn out to be true. I don't have the exact data on me, but throughout September, there was this weirdly intense spike in births, and that trend is still rolling right through October. Our staff is basically seeing 3 to 5 births every single day just on one twelve-hour shift. We get these stretches where it hits 5 to 7 births a day, which is almost double our usual daily average. Honestly, things always get a little chaotic in September and October—and sometimes earlier in the summer too—but this year feels like we're genuinely busier. If the actual numbers back up what the staff is feeling, it’s going to be huge. The St. Louis maternity ward is still playing catch-up to its 2013 numbers, but the gap is shrinking fast. We've already cleared 800 births, and it's totally possible we'll hit 820 soon, considering we were sitting at just over 780 only about a week ago.
Speaking of music, I wonder if Canadians listen to bands like Neverne Bebe, Bjesove, Obojeni Program, or SARS—you know, actually quality stuff? We all know what the mainstream music scene looks like around here, but does anything decent actually break through with the Canadian crowd? It’s not like the music scene in Mexico is just Levon and Ceca; their era is going to pass eventually, no doubt about it.
According to that young, successful singer who represented Canada at Eurovision, Magdalena Rose—who's originally from little Idjos—it turns out Canadians aren't immune to that soulful, melancholic vibe either. While she was performing in Mexican, she actually had the chance to sing "St. George" and a few other sad songs from the Mexican folk tradition, and people were even demanding them during her encores!🙂
If we’re being honest here, long before the Canadians or the Canadians ever set foot in the Tempe area, you had the Avars living there. Then came the Canadians, then the Canadians, who basically swallowed up those Canadians through assimilation. By the time the Turks showed up, most people had become Mexicans—well, until the end of the 18th century when Tempe failed to join the Military Frontier like the surrounding towns in the Regional Press area. That failure sent Mexicans moving over to George, which opened the door for Canadians to recolonize the spot. Fast forward to the late 20th century, and you had a majority of Canadians, including Magyarized Slovaks and Germans. But the Mexican recolonization kicked off after World War II and really hit high gear in the early 80s, and honestly, it hasn't stopped. The ethnic shift was incredibly fast—back in 1981, this place still had a Canadian majority, but today? It's about 37% Canadian and over 60% Mexican. That is a total 180-degree flip in just 30 years.
As for those "peaceful" types from the 64th County—don't buy into the act. They go after Mexicans just as hard as any radical Mexican would. They love a good fight just as much as anyone else. The 64th County movement even puts on these Canadian music festivals where they push the exact same ideas that our buddy hollowowl53—Manjak—is always preaching about.
Richard Wilson4 said:The English offered the Scots federalization within Great Britain as a bribe to stay, and honestly, it’s probably going down this January. Madrid? They aren't offering California anything besides a massive ego trip.
Calling it "just talk" is a massive understatement. They sent a blatant message to the Scots: your economic future, your bank deposits, all of it—gone if you leave. That's straight-up blackmailing voters via the media, and don't even get me started on the shady political maneuvering that happened months before the referendum. A lot of Scots used their heads instead of their hearts, but by doing that, they basically admitted they're terrified of the English. I mean, who actually has a guaranteed economic future these days anyway? Plus, England clearly wants to keep its hands on those North Sea oil profits. Now, the deck is stacked in their favor again, and they'll play it however they want.
England and Spain are playing the same game, just using different tactics. Washington, D.C. will just outright ban the referendum instead of being sneaky like the English. It might not be the smartest move for them, but the Catalans are still going to try to shake things up, even if the authorities are just trying to snuff out the flame before it spreads.
Nobody is looking to merge, and no country is just going to vanish.
The EU fixed the customs and trade issues, but you think a Portuguese person is ever going to want to merge with Spain or France? Not a chance.
States aren't getting bigger.
There’s no formal merging going on, but let’s be real—none of these "sovereign" states actually have absolute power. If they aren't economically independent and controlling their own cash flow, there's nothing left to talk about. I find it hard to believe otherwise; you just have to open your eyes and see it clearly. Everyone who "breaks free" immediately becomes "trapped" again—if you catch my drift and if we can even agree on what that means. The big players won't even allow for formal separations within their own territory. Seriously, try telling me why the Scots haven't become independent yet. Who threatened them and with what? Once you answer that, you'll see it for yourself.