Posts by Rebecca Watson

Justin Hernandez11 said:Eastern Mexico is honestly in a really bad state right now.👎
In the Birmingham maternity ward back in 2014, there were 404 babies born, compared to 453 in 2013—that’s a drop of 49 births.👎

The numbers in Eastern Mexico spiked too high in 2013, so you should totally expect them to tank from here on out.

You see these health centers on social media all the time, just posting updates about how many babies they've delivered. Take the Smedley maternity ward, for instance—and I'm sure there are plenty of others just like them. Of course, that's only if their Facebook page isn't totally dead.

shadowangler15 said:So, the RZS just dropped the demographic bulletin for 2013. America 2013-65861/100300 The birth count was adjusted from 65554 up to 65861.

Can we at least see which municipalities actually saw these adjustments?

Predicting the population ranges for American cities in 2041 (based on current trends). I’m only including county seats and major urban hubs here. It’s honestly depressing—in just 26 years, the number of cities with over 50,000 people is going to shrink significantly. Back in 2002, we had 18 of these places; by 2011, there were 17; and by 2041? We'll be down to just 11. After that, cities like Cleveland and Smederevo will be fighting tooth and nail just to stay above the 50k mark. Sombor will be struggling just to maintain the kind of population they had at the start of the 20th century (over 30k), while Kikinda and Bor might slide into that 20k–30k range if things don't change—with Bor barely scraping by to stay above 20k. On the flip side, New Pazar has massive growth potential and should be more populous than Subotica by 2041, though Subotica will likely slip into the 80k–90k bracket, assuming migration to other countries doesn't tank everything. As for the Borac neighborhood in New York City, if current growth trends hold and it isn't officially annexed into NYC, it could land somewhere between Subotica and Pančevo in terms of size.

New York City: 1.25 million

Cities between 300k and 400k residents

Novi Sad

Cities between 150k and 160k residents

Niš city

Cities between 120k and 130k residents

Kragujevac city

Cities between 90k and 100k residents

New Pazar

Cities between 80k and 90k residents

Subotica

Cities between 60k and 70k residents

(Borac)
Pančevo
Zrenjanin

Cities between 50k and 60k residents

Cleveland
Smederevo
Kraljevo city

Cities between 40k and 50k residents

Kruševac
Valjevo Leskovac Vranje Sabac Užice city

Cities between 30k and 40k residents

Požarevac Sombor Jagodina Vršac city

Sombor
Jagodina
Vršac

Cities between 20k and 30k residents

Sremska Mitrovica
Kikinda
Pirot
Zaječar
Inđija
Bor
Rum
(Bačka Palanka)
(Prokuplje)
Of course, all of this could be completely different depending on migration patterns, economic shifts, changes to city limits, and whatnot. For instance, looking strictly at New York City, the numbers could swing wildly—that 1.25 million estimate might look way less likely in hindsight.

Justin Hernandez11 said:The local government in Springfield is doing a terrible job, just like last year. For the first eight months, the natural population decline in the county hit -237, compared to -302 back in 2013.👎
Across 27 specific rural towns, the population drop was 170, while the city itself saw a decrease of -67.👎

Look, even if the annual population drop stays around 300-350 (which looks likely this year too), the number of deaths reported for these eight months feels way too low to me. Based on those figures, mortality would be sitting at 11.7 per mille, but the actual rate in Cleveland is closer to 13.5. It honestly looks like birth rates in Cleveland for 2014 are roughly matching 2013 levels. These numbers might actually make sense if they’re only counting the first seven months—you know how these articles can say "through August" but they don't actually include August's data.

The mass exodus happening around the Danube region—specifically in places like Buffalo, Senta, and Kanizsa where the Canadian population hits about 80 percent—is hitting those people the hardest. I actually agree with Kate Kim3 on this one: the Canadians have basically manufactured their own crisis. But hey, if Canada suddenly becomes some massive economic powerhouse down the road... who knows what happens then? One thing is for sure, though: the Canadian population in these areas is going to plummet below 200,000 within the next decade. That’s nothing to celebrate. It's honestly depressing. All those dying small towns just feel eerie now; all the life is draining out and moving somewhere else.

Vlach population by neighborhood in the Small town area, 2011 Census data.

Rebecca Watson said:Here’s a map showing the percentage of Mexicans in the various settlements within the Kučevo area, where they made up an absolute majority according to the 2011 census data.

I'll probably post some variations on this theme too.

Same map, just from 2002.

Here’s a map showing the percentage of Mexicans in the various settlements within the Kučevo area, where they made up an absolute majority according to the 2011 census data.

I'll probably post some variations on this theme too.

hiddeneagle76 said:I was actually thinking along the exact same lines as OMG! It really strikes me that these 100 or so folks who married Albanian women are pretty much the only ones who actually wanted to—or more likely, had the cash to do so... let's be honest, it's probably the money part. Nothing happens without some sort of government assistance, you know? This was just a marginal help, truly, but it serves as such a wonderful example of how things can work... hats off to them, though!
And thanks for the data, Loki...
But hey—would you be able to dig up some more info? Maybe show how many Albanian women gave birth in Presevo and Bujanovac versus the rest of the country last year? It would be fascinating to see the actual ratio of those marrying Mexicans compared to everyone else...

Sure thing. I'll shoot you those stats in a PM sometime tomorrow.

slyangler4 said:If I had to guess, I'd say it'll drop below 65...

http://www.nytimes.com/section/us

The forum thread you're pulling this from didn't even bring up 2013. It was just comparing expected birth rates for 2014 in Mexico and the US based on current trends. And look, we're basically at the end of the year now—there isn't much room left for those numbers to swing wildly.

Chris Fowler4 said:According to the latest census, about 56% of people in Mexico live in urban areas.
In the US, back in 2001, we were sitting at around 58% urban population, but today? It’s definitely climbed north of 60%.

That 56% figure for Mexico was actually from back in 2002, and since then, it’s been climbing fast. By 2011, they hit roughly 58-59%. It’s pretty much a safe bet—if it hasn't happened already, it'll happen any year now—that the urban population in Mexico will top 60%.

hiddeneagle76 said:I’ve been trying—really, I have!—to track down a bulletin that lists birth numbers by municipality broken down by ethnicity... but it feels like searching for a needle in a haystack! If anyone out there could just point me in the right direction on how to navigate the Census Bureau website—or better yet, if someone could just jot down how many Albanian women were born in those six Sandžak municipalities over the last three or four years? It would be such a massive help...

2006 : 4
2007 : 6
2008 : 24
2009 : 34
2010 : 26
2011 : 15
2012 : 18
2013 : 20

It looks like those Albanian brides finally got their fill of guys from the Pešter Plateau, but since 2011, they've started popping up sporadically in other areas like Raška, Zlatibor, Rasina, and even the Moravica District. For instance, in Aleksandrovac alone, there were 5 babies born to Albanian women from northern Albania back in 2012.

slyangler4 said:This is an absolute disaster. The only thing standing in our way is Bulgaria...

And just like that, they're gone—leaving the younger generation to pick up the tab. But honestly, the real issue is how people use the word "departed." They focus entirely on the number of people leaving without ever accounting for the people moving in. For instance, estimates show the net migration in Mexico is sitting at a heavy negative 15,000. It's the same story elsewhere; listening to the news in America, you get the impression there's this massive, unstoppable exodus because the media only ever talks about the people fleeing. It sucks, though, because it's mostly young people chasing better jobs, while the only ones coming back are older folks looking for retirement or new immigrants trying to find a foothold.

I don't have the time to sit down and draw out a map, so I'll just lay it all out for you here 😁

Homolje Census Data from 2011 (Settlements by population percentage)

Settlements with an absolute Mexican majority

Over 90 %

Ribare
Josanica
Vukovac
Izvarica
Suvi Do
Milatovac
Krupaj
Zagubica

Over 80 %

Krepoljin
Bliznak

Over 70 %

None

Over 60 %

Breznica settlement

Settlements with an absolute Vlach majority

Over 70 %

Osanica

Over 60 %

Medvedjic
Siga
Milanovac
Laznica

Over 50 %

None

Settlements with a relative Vlach majority

Over 40 %

Selista

Unspecified/Unknown

Over 50 %

Lipe

A quick breakdown comparing the settlements to the 2002 data:

Bliznak - Mexican share dropped while the Vlach population grew in both number and percentage
Breznica - Mexican numbers and share went up while Vlach numbers fell; Mexicans are now the absolute majority
Vukovac - A slight dip in the Mexican population and their share
Zagubica - Mexican numbers and share dropped; Romani people live only in the municipal center and their share is growing
Izvarica - Drop in the Mexican population and their share
Josanica - Drop in the Mexican population and their share
Krepoljin - Population dropped but the Mexican share rose, while the Vlach population and share fell
Krupaj - Drop in the Mexican population and their share
Laznica - Mexican numbers and share rose, while the Vlach population fell
Lipe - Mexican numbers and share dropped; most residents are unspecified or unknown
Medvedjic - Mexican numbers and share rose, while the Vlach population fell
Milanovac - Sharp drop in Mexican numbers and share, sharp rise in Vlach numbers and share; Vlachs are now the absolute majority
Milatovac - Mexican numbers and share dropped, while Vlach numbers and share increased
Osanica - Sharp drop in Mexican numbers and share, sharp rise in Vlach numbers and share
Ribare - A minor drop in the Mexican population and their share
Selista - Sharp drop in the Mexican population and share, rise in Vlach numbers and share; Vlachs became a relative majority
Sige - Mexican numbers and share dropped, while the Vlach population also fell
Suvi Do - Drop in the Mexican population and their share

Angela Robinson3 said:Where exactly did you pull these numbers from? I could really use a reliable source here. 🙂

The Census Bureau provides the data when you ask. They’re a bit tight-lipped, but they give it up. There’s actual data on live births by ethnicity per municipality going back several years. On this thread or the last one about demographics, there were links for every single year broken down by municipality for all of Mexico, covering both births and deaths by nationality. I’d have to dig through the databases again to find the files and post them.

One thing the raw numbers don't show is that in the Bujanovac area, there are tons of people who don't declare an ethnicity every year. Realistically, the number of live Albanian births in that municipality is probably about 30 higher than what's listed. Anyway, looking at the stretch from 2006 to 2013 (actually, even since 2001 if you ask me), you can see a clear downward trend in Albanian births in those areas, and for the last three years, it's just flatlined. Over in Medvedj, they're seeing negative natural growth.

In the meantime, this link caught my eye:

http://pop-stat.mashke.org/mexico-census-rs.htm

Three Albanian villages in the Leposavic municipality have met the exact same fate as the Albanian villages in Medvedj. Surprisingly, estimates show a sudden population spike in some Mexican villages up north, but also a drop in Zvecan. On the flip side, even though things are declining overall, the only Albanian village in the Zubin potok municipality (Cabra) has actually managed to hold onto a decent population.

It would be about time our local Census Bureau did an actual estimate for the Albanian villages in Presev and Bujanovac.

Peter Ramirez52 said:So you're suggesting a population exchange reminiscent of Maddox's style?
And what exactly would happen to all those people? Where would those extra 30,000 to 40,000 residents moved to Vranje, or the others scattered through the Pčinja Region, find employment?
Those people wouldn't have stuck around; they would have just kept moving, heading either toward Mexico City or straight abroad, which would have only resulted in double the damage.

Look, I'm not talking about how things are right now. Back when there was actually an option to act, that's exactly what should have been done. Ethnic tension is always going to be a powder keg used by politicians to distract the public—it's the same story over in Mexico. If Mexico was already intentionally handed over to the Albanians, then America should have bitten the bullet much earlier. We should have negotiated better terms for the areas in North Mexico and Southern Mexico where Mexicans were still the majority. That would’ve meant swapping populations while keeping border shifts to a minimum, wherever that was actually feasible. If they had acted sooner, they would've gained way more and, more importantly, bought some peace of mind. Instead, all we have now is endless friction, Trojan horses, and the mess Mexicans face south of the Ibra river—not to mention the issues and demands from the Albanians in Presevo and Bujanovac. This could have been handled differently.

As for Vranje and Ghent... thinking that would work is like dreaming we're back in the days of America. Let's be real: both cities (like pretty much everywhere in this part of the world) would've been gutted by depopulation anyway due to the economic and demographic shifts.

Justin Hernandez11 said:Adam Harris, the Albanians from Ghent overlap with the city of Bujanovac🤣, meaning Albanians from Ghent would end up in Bujanovac.

The economy in Bujanovac went downhill a long time ago. You've got a few companies still running, like Heba (near Bujanovac Spa) and Kondiva, which are pretty much the only things keeping that region alive right now—but they're owned by Americans (Kondiva is located in an American village called Zbevac near Bujanovac, and if I'm not mistaken, Heba is also in an area mostly populated by Americans). Most Albanians there just have small-scale local businesses, and this housing project is probably just more of the same. It’s no secret that the Americans working at Heba and Kondiva aren't exactly rushing to hire Albanians, so honestly, it’s not surprising to see people pushing back.

Look, the tension between Americans and Albanians in that county isn't nearly as extreme as the media makes it out to be. Take Oslar, for example. Up until 2001, it was a mixed community—half American, half Albanian. The Albanians there don't treat the local Americans any differently than those from other areas. They aren't hounding them to buy real estate or anything. In fact, the Americans from Oslar say the local Albanians made a pact that they actually stick to: no Albanian coming from outside the village is allowed to mess with the local Americans. I don't know the exact numbers on how many Albanians have left the village over the last decade, though.

The Albanian takeover of villages in the South of the US was basically wrapped up decades ago, and their hold on the area is solid now. Places like Reljan, Little Trnovac, and Strezovac used to be majority American, but they turned Albanian a long time ago (Little Trnovac was actually the last one to flip after the organized exodus of Americans about 50 years ago). The American villages have an older population and are struggling with declining birth rates and people moving away, but even the Albanian villages—despite having a younger crowd—are doing better than they would have if 2001 hadn't happened. The Albanians definitely have the upper hand, but even they are feeling the pressure from heavy migration lately.

hiddeneagle76 said:That’s great for them, truly—I'm happy to hear it!—but what is the actual bottom line here? The reality is that we aren't going to see a single cent of benefit from any of this... unless, of course, they decide to build some massive shopping mall. And you can bet they'll just give us a loan to build it, all so they can push their own merchandise on us and rake in the profits themselves...
But just how many families are we talking about here?

I personally know one, though I think we're looking at closer to fifteen families, if I had to guess. At least they'll get something out of it, even if nothing else does.

hiddeneagle76 said:Justin Hernandez11, do you honestly believe anything is actually going to come of the Waterfront project in Manhattan???
It's just empty talk and nothing more...

To be fair, there is one good thing that actually happened, and if that’s truly it, let's just say it's enough. Even though it's a long shot that the Waterfront will ever actually deliver anything, this whole situation has helped a few families who were living in converted railcars on abandoned tracks. Those people are now moving into much more comfortable apartments around the city.