I honestly don't think we need to sweat the anti-tank weaponry too much; the supplies are moving and they aren't going to stop coming. I mean, Blinken was basically saying that soon enough, the Ukrainians will have ten anti-tank systems for every single Russian tank they face. Now, I wonder if those Switchblade 600 drones are factored into that math... but to me, it feels like the real priority right now has shifted toward air defense—stuff like NASAMS, Sky Sabre, or pretty much any old-school USSR-era system we can get our hands on and ship over. Plus, anything that acts as a force multiplier, like high-end night optics, is absolutely vital right now. On top of the fact that the Czech Republic is already sending over T-72s, it looks like they're even teaming up with the Slovaks to look into letting the Ukrainians bring their gear over to be repaired locally (source behind the paywall).
Every single poll we've seen points to massive support for Nord Stream 2, even heading into late 2021. It seems like your average German citizen knew exactly who Russia was, but as long as the business side was humming along and that gas stayed cheap, they figured it was basically an American problem. All this talk about corrupt politicians pulling the strings is honestly right up there with saying Vladimir Putin has brainwashed the entire Russian population. I’m not exactly in the mood to feel sorry for them, but if we need to help them break free from relying on Russian energy, then yeah, let's do it—even if the main goal is just to squeeze the Russian economy dry.
George Robinson43 said:Even the Baltic pipeline is nearing completion. It runs from Equinor's fields in the North Sea, through Denmark, straight to Poland, where it connects to the supply line for the Baltic states. By January 1, 2023, we're looking at a capacity of 10 billion cubic meters. This is all part of the massive strategic push to decouple Poland and the Baltic region from Russian gas—utilizing LNG terminals and direct links to the North Sea. Essentially, the Danes, Poles, Lithuanians, Latvians, and Estonians have been thinking ten years ahead of the Swabians—if we can even call those Kremlin employees like Schroeder, Mutti & co. "Swabians" at all.😉
It is actually pretty fascinating to see how this is playing out; it wasn't just Lithuania making the move, but Latvia and Estonia have jumped ship on imports too.
The head of a Latvian natural gas storage facility announced today that the Baltic states have completely stopped importing Russian natural gas, according to AFP.
"If there were ever any lingering doubts about whether we could trust deliveries coming out of Russia, current events are making it crystal clear that the trust is gone," said Uldis Bariss, the CEO of Conexus Baltic grid.
"As of April 1st, Russian natural gas is no longer flowing into Latvia, Estonia, or Lithuania," he told local radio.
He noted that the Baltic market is currently being kept afloat by the gas reserves stored underground in Latvia.
Looks like those T-72 transfers are finally on the horizon. Honestly, between the Poles, the Bulgarians, and the Czechs, they should have plenty of them sitting around ready to go. And hey, maybe even some PT-91s if they're feeling generous, but regardless, those Abrams are definitely headed their way soon.
And speaking on the whole situation in Lithuania... they’re headed toward relying on zero percent Russian gas very soon. It used to be 100% dependence, but now? Just one floating terminal was enough to change everything (and it’ll end up covering parts of Latvia and Estonia too) https://twitter.com/nexta_tv/status/...L9G34mliw&s=19
David Torres2 said:Do the math again. How are you getting 150 if you need at least 10 trips just to cover one billion? For 50 billion, it can't be 100-150. My math isn't actually about the total number of ships (there aren't even 200 out there), it's specifically looking at Germany, not all the other countries that also import from Russia. My calculation doesn't even factor in transit time (about two weeks) or unloading time (maybe 15-20 hours). Plus, where is everyone else in the world who also imports via LNG tankers? Germany doesn't even have a single LNG terminal right now. I'm done talking about this.
I'm telling you, things will just keep going exactly as they are. People will pay through third parties or whatever, but it'll keep moving. Cheers
There are over 650 LNG tankers currently in service, and that fleet is growing by about 40 to 50 ships every year, largely thanks to South Korea. Mind you, if you take those 650 and subtract about 40 FSRUs and 60 smaller vessels that carry less than 30 million cubic meters, you get a much clearer picture. https://www.statista.com/statistics/...-tanker-fleet/
Even though your link isn't working, I think I can tell what you've become. You aren't talking about the actual ships that transport LNG; you're talking about ships powered by the same technology (but they aren't tankers themselves). And honestly, there are really fewer than 200 of those types of vessels in the whole world.
The Russian ambassador over in the UK is out here making all these big threats, saying they’re going to intercept and destroy those precision weapon shipments coming from the UK into Ukraine. Honestly, it feels like a massive bluff to me—I mean, do they even have the actual capability to pull something like that off? Unless they’re planning on sending their own planes and helicopters straight into a death trap, I just don't see how they could make it happen without losing everything.
David Torres2 said:I think you've got it backwards here, not me. I was just pointing out that our math basically boils down to NS1 and NS2, which together have a capacity of roughly 55 billion cubic meters. Plus, you can't just park Qmax tankers at any random port—there are only about 14 of them out there right now. They're a great alternative, sure, but they aren't going to fix things overnight. And yeah, as of right now, Germany has zero LNG terminals.
Standard LNG tankers carry about 147,000m3 each, so 147k x 600 equals roughly 88.2 million cubic meters of gas. If NS1 and NS2 provide 55 billion, then dividing that by 88.2 million per tanker means you'd need about 620 tankers.
Germany produces 5% of its own gas and imports the other 95%. Half of that 95% comes from Russia. Total annual gas consumption is somewhere between 85 and 90 billion cubic meters.
...but the thing is, NS1 and NS2 each have their own individual capacity of 55 billion m3. If you look at an average LNG tanker, it can move roughly 80 to 90 million m3 of gas. So, if we assume one of those ships makes maybe 10 to 15 trips a year running between Texas, Louisiana, or Pennsylvania and Europe, you're looking at about a billion m3 per tanker annually—which means you'd need somewhere between 100 and 150 tankers. And let's be real, a huge chunk of them are already cruising that route 24/7 anyway.
Larry Wilson25 said:Germany really learned the hard way what happens when you ignore American advice for eight straight years. I mean, look—they’re such a wealthy nation, they could've easily built at least eight different LNG terminals to diversify. But no, they decided to put every single egg in one basket. It's honestly wild; they have a massive surplus of billions of dollars just sitting there because they clearly have no clue how to actually spend it effectively. Talk about a massive blunder by what everyone calls the "smartest" country in the EU... And seriously, how is France not absolutely losing their minds right now?
Eight years? Please, Americans have been telling this slow-to-learn continent the exact same thing since the Reagan era.
Germany just gave the green light to send 56 PbV-501s over to Ukraine—these are basically those Swedish-upgraded versions of the old BMP-1s that some company out in the Czech Republic is holding onto right now. https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ne-2022-04-01/
Maria Moore said:Foreign trade only makes up about 4% of the US GDP. Plus, we have our own oil and gas right here at home, so we won't deal with the massive shortages or production shutdowns they're facing over in the European Union. On the flip side, the US will obviously deal with some turbulence in the global commodities and energy markets—since prices are set on global exchanges, they're often driven by pure speculation—which is bound to trigger inflation and market chaos. For instance, I heard an economic analyst on CNN last night saying there’s actually plenty of oil available right now; the price hikes on the exchanges are just a reaction to geopolitical instability rather than any actual drop in supply. Eventually, the markets will settle down, and in the meantime, the US might even come out ahead by ramping up gas exports and, let's not forget, selling weapons to both Ukraine and the European Union.
Actually, the US accounts for roughly 25% of imports and exports of goods and services relative to its GDP. Honestly, in this modern era where global value chains are so deeply intertwined, seeing a number as low as 4% would look incredibly bizarre to anyone paying attention.
Man, artillery... I’m just sitting here thinking how much we could really use some heavy-duty MLRS units right about now, though honestly, a fleet of those 155mm self-propelled guns would probably be even more likely to make an impact.
Britain and its allies have agreed to send more lethal weapons to Ukraine to help defend IT against Russia's invasion, British defence minister Ben Wallace said on Thursday. A number of countries have come forward either with new ideas or indeed more pledges of money," Wallace told reporters after hosting over 30 international partners AT a conference. He said the lethal aid included longer range artillery, ammunition, and more anti-aircraft weapons.
Germany might be looking at sending about $325 million worth of various gear over to Ukraine very soon. We're talking night vision, MATADORI systems, radars, grenade launchers... the works!
Poland has already stopped bringing in coal from Russia since April, and they’re on track to cut off gas and oil imports by the end of the year too. It looks like we’re seeing the first wave of those major markets where Russian energy held a massive share finally walking away from the table
The truth is, the real supply cut is coming from the buyers themselves—basically, all of Europe. At least looking at the medium term, trying to play this short-term positioning game is becoming an absolute nightmare to predict. But look, whoever can pivot away from Russian gas quickly will, and those who can't? Well, they’re going to be scrambling to do whatever it takes to make that switch happen as fast as humanly possible. Which, if you think about it, is exactly what everyone is already doing right now. Russian gas is totally replaceable, even if we're just talking about the medium term. https://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-G...ssian-Gas.html
Paul Anderson7 said:I was wondering how Sweden, Finland, Denmark, Italy, the Netherlands, and Belgium are currently handling their gas imports from Russia.
Well, looking at Finland and Sweden, they basically import almost everything, though you have to remember the Swedes actually have enough domestic production to cover a tiny slice of their own needs. The Finns, on the other hand, rely almost exclusively on Russia, while the Swedes flip-flop depending on the year... they used to pull from Denmark, but nowadays it’s either Norway or Russia. They do have a couple of LNG terminals, but let me tell you, those capacities are pretty small. Now, Denmark used to have some solid production going, but lately, their imports from Russia have been creeping up—though it's worth noting these imports are actually quite minimal. You also have to consider that in those northern parts of Europe, biomass and all sorts of other heating methods are king, so hardly anyone relies on gas for warmth. Gas just makes up a tiny fraction of their total energy consumption. In Finland, they even have these mandates for alternative fuels, essentially ensuring that if the gas supply ever gets cut off, those few households that actually use it can just pivot to something else, like wood. The Netherlands has Groningen, of course, along with that massive LNG terminal in Rotterdam, which they are actually expanding right now. Their imports from Russia fluctuate from year to year, but honestly, they could swap that out without breaking a sweat. As for Belgium, most of what they bring in comes from Norway, the UK, and the Netherlands, and since they have a decent LNG terminal—plus a few others nearby—they should be able to make the switch pretty easily too. Then you’ve got Italy, which is acting a lot like Germany, except the Italians were arguably a bit smarter because they went ahead and planted a few LNG terminals in the ground. Plus, Italy has access to Algeria and several other potential sources sitting right there in the Mediterranean. Their whole game plan is to completely sever ties with Russian imports by 2025.
restlessmason54 said:God, I just love this typical Anglo-fanatic style of personal attacks. It’s such a classic move. 😍
The world isn't nearly as one-dimensional as you think, and honestly, seeing Russia collapse is something you’ll only ever experience in your wildest, most delusional dreams. 🙂
I'll be honest, I totally missed out on watching the old empire centered in Washington, D.C. fall apart, and I definitely didn't get to witness the absolute misery and poverty Americans faced during the nineties. But thank God, we've got a front-row seat for a sequel now, and I have absolutely no intention of missing this one.
In that thread where we’re all busy tallying up the sanctions, I can't believe some guy with zero brain cells is actually sitting there being dead serious, claiming that money is the only thing that matters
Dmitry Rogozin is back at it again, making threats about the ISS being shut down. Honestly, in a year where we’re finally gearing up for those first orbital flights involving both SLSa and Starship, it would be incredibly short-sighted for the Russians to blow up this partnership, especially since their own space program is already starting to look pretty pathetic by comparison compared to the US efforts.
The UK Ministry of Defence has just cleared out their entire inventory of surplus military gear. It’s a massive list, too—everything from Land Rovers and Bv206s to various cargo trucks, and they even have some armored vehicles up for grabs! Apparently, the British military is sitting on a huge amount of equipment that’s set to become excess stock over the next few years, so they're clearing the decks now.