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Posts by Carl Lee27

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Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
slycobra5 said:Will Americans end up missing Russia—and everything else that flows out of there—more than Russians will miss us and our products?

One thing is for certain: Russians are reclaiming their spot as the primary villains in Hollywood movies, mostly while pushing Arabs aside...

But honestly, what could Americans possibly miss that would actually come from Russia?
Is it just the Russian vodka and those wild dashcam videos?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Kate Lewis3 said:That alleged mistress of Putin’s—some gymnast or whatever she is—has been whining for a while now. She’s out there crying about how Maddox was allowed to run wild back in the America days, and then suddenly they hit them with sanctions. Give me a break. The West is just being difficult, especially since Slobodan Maddox didn't even have... nukzor.

hhhh, the mistresses and wives are going to be the ones crying next; the days of Louis Vuitton and all that are over, and don't even get me started on the luxury shopping sprees in Paris and Milan.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Delta, along with its subsidiaries like Spirit and JetBlue, is pulling the plug on all international flights starting March 8th—though they’ll still be flying into Minsk.
It honestly feels like they're just terrified someone is going to seize their entire fleet.

Quincy:
Delta is suspending its international routes.
https://www.nytimes.com/2022/03/05/w...mid=tw-nytimes
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
silverotter72 said:I'd love to see some actual proof for that. It seems unlikely that nobody would have snapped a photo of that mess, and honestly, it’s even harder to believe that the Germans would store weaponry like that. They aren't like America.

Look, my friend, I really don't think you realize just how messy things have actually been with the German military over the last few years. Believe me when I say this—even their most cutting-edge, high-tech equipment is sitting there completely useless half the time.

Poor State of German Armed Forces Revealed; Only 30% of Fighters and Under 50% of Tanks Serviceable

https://militarywatchmagazine.com/ar...ks-serviceable
Arming Ukraine in War in Ukraine ·
Can you believe it? This donation from Germany is—surprise, surprise—basically useless for the most part. We’ll probably find out pretty quickly that those "2,000 functional ones" they promised will dwindle down to just a few hundred working units in no time at all.
And honestly, even those Stingers they're talking about? They’re ancient history at this point.

Visegrád Group
@visegrad24
The 2700 Strela anti-aircraft missiles Germany delivered to Ukraine are so rusty that they are unusable.

The wooden boxes they were kept in were so moldy that German troops had to wear protective gear to touch them.

CDS, a Ukrainian think-tank linked to the Department of Defense, calls it “sabotage”.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...23709045866503
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Larry Fox5 said:Whether it’s from Qatar, Norway, or Canada—they’re all riding with the USA and leading the pack in LNG exports. Honestly, for the US to source from Norway just makes the most sense since shipping costs are way lower... You could definitely ramp up production there too, so we'd see even more gas flowing in from Norway down the road...

Look, all the stats say gas demand is gonna tank over the next decade—so this whole thing is basically just a short-term headache... Building some massive pipeline across the Mediterranean wouldn't even make financial sense anyway.

Regarding those Russian sanctions—I'm reading that they’re actually hitting them way harder than expected because all those foreign companies are just pulling out of Russia entirely... It's like they didn't even see that coming, and honestly, there's no way for them to make up for that kind of loss...

AMD, Intel, Samsung, Apple... the whole damn tech industry basically bet everything on the Russian market...

People are losing their jobs left and right—the whole economic backbone of this country is just collapsing... And let’s be real, Russia is way more dependent on the West than anyone wants to admit. Take oil extraction, for instance—they need our tech just to get the stuff out of the ground. Even the aviation industry is hitting a wall now that Boeing and Airbus have cut off the supply of spare parts... everything is falling apart...

Aeroflot, S7 Airlines, Nordwind Airlines, AirBridgeCargo, UTAir, and Rossiya Airlines—it’s a massive hit, and we're talking about just one single slice of the business...
Volkswagen basically shuttered all their plants in Russia—they'll probably just scrap the whole production line for good at this point...

Nord Stream 2 is dead—shut down completely and they’ve handed out pink slips to every single official involved. You realize that was probably the biggest private investment ever, right? So yeah, all that cash just vanished into thin air... but honestly, that’s not even the worst part of this whole mess...

Germany's building two new LNG terminals—which basically means Russia is gonna lose its biggest customer for good... finally...

I don't think we can even begin to wrap our heads around the total damage here—we're looking at a massive wave of Russian banks and corporations just going under... They’ve already bled out so much capital on the stock market, not to mention the plummeting value of every single Russian company out there...

With his military sitting right there on the border, Putin had every single card in his hand—he could've demanded anything... But by launching this invasion of Ukraine, he didn't just wreck that country, he basically signed his own political death warrant too...

Look, if we're talking about the biggest exporters on the planet, you've got Australia, Qatar, and the USA. And honestly, out of those three, Americans have by far the most potential to actually ship stuff over to Europe.

Now, Canada LNG isn't even exporting yet. Like, at all. They're currently building their only terminal up in British Columbia, which is backed by major players like Japan, China, Malaysia, and Korea. So, if any shipments eventually start coming out of Canada, they'll mostly likely just end up flowing through US terminals anyway.
Norway is also kind of a minor player in this specific context, just one terminal pushing maybe 6 to 7 billion annually.

That really leaves Qatar and Australia to pick up the slack, and they'll definitely cover some of the demand. I can't say for sure about Australia, but Qatar is actually planning to ramp up production. The catch—and it's a bit of a headache—is that just like the Russians, they much prefer those long-term contracts, and a huge chunk of their capacity is already locked down for Asia.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:I fail to grasp how anything in my previous post could possibly be interpreted as ambiguous. What exactly is it that remains unclear?

Perhaps you could enlighten us as to how exactly we intend to conjure hundreds of LNG tankers, massive terminals, and vast storage facilities out of thin air overnight?

Look, man,
Who actually argued against that? Seriously, did anyone in this thread even suggest that Europe is actually ready to handle enough LNG cargo to finally kick Russia to the curb?

I asked the same question twice now—and I'm really just trying to follow the logic here regarding your opposition to fracking—so, if we aren't doing that, where else is this diversification supposed to come from? You guys are clearly against fracking, which basically shuts the door on imports from the US, so I'm genuinely curious: if not from there, where on earth is the gas supposed to come from?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Quincey:
I honestly don't even know where to start with this one because there is just so much to unpack, but I really feel like we need to sit down and actually talk about what’s happening right now. It feels like everything is moving at such a breakneck speed lately, you know? One minute you think you have a handle on things, and then suddenly the entire landscape shifts under your feet, and you're just left standing there trying to make sense of the chaos. I was thinking about it earlier while I was grabbing coffee—just staring out the window, watching people rush by—and it hit me how much we take for granted regarding stability. We assume things will just stay the way they are, but that’s never the case. It’s never the case! And I mean, I saw what Carl Lee27 was saying earlier about the shifting dynamics in the economy, and honestly, I couldn't agree more, though I think there's an even deeper layer to it that we're all missing. It's not just about the numbers or the headlines; it's about the actual, lived experience of navigating this uncertainty every single day. It's exhausting, isn't it? Just trying to find your footing when the ground keeps turning into sand. I truly believe if we don't stop and reflect, if we don't take a second to breathe and look at the bigger picture, we're just going to keep spinning our wheels in circles. We have to be intentional, we really do. Carl Lee27 says:
Look, it’s pretty obvious we have plenty of gas, I mean, come on, Europe isn't out on Mars or something! There’s really no point in us trying to convince ourselves otherwise or stressing out about it right now—honestly, let's just see how it plays out. I'm telling you, we definitely won't be running short on gas next year.
I’ve always felt that if you can actually see something coming—if you can map out the trajectory and wrap your head around what's likely to happen—then you aren't just sitting there helpless, you know? There's this sense of agency that comes with foresight. It’s like, once you have a clear prediction in hand, you suddenly find yourself holding the steering wheel instead of just being a passenger in the car. You gain this certain level of leverage, a way to nudge things in your favor or at least brace yourself for the impact. To me, predictability isn't just about knowing the future; it's about having the opportunity to actually step in and exert some kind of control over the outcome.
Look, if I can just throw one piece of advice out there—and please, don't take this the wrong way, because I still firmly believe we’re all just kind of grasping at straws here and speculating without any real data to back us up—but you really ought to try and find a way to monetize this unique perspective you have. Seriously! Because right now, if you look at anyone else in the market, absolutely nobody shares your sentiment. It's like you're standing on a completely different island than everyone else.
The market is already bracing itself for at least a partial shutdown of supplies coming out of Russia, and honestly, we’re all just sitting here watching the fallout from decades of pure, unadulterated idiocy coming out of Germany. It's wild how much this hits us now because of decisions made years ago.

Quincey:
I honestly don't even know where to begin with this one, because my mind is just racing through a million different thoughts at once, but I feel like we really need to sit down and have a serious heart-to-heart about what’s actually happening right now. It feels like everything is moving so fast, you know? Like, one minute you're just going about your day, grabbing a coffee at Starbucks or driving down the interstate, and the next thing you realize is that the entire landscape of how we live and interact has shifted under our feet. And I mean, I’m not trying to be dramatic or anything—really, I’m not—but there’s this underlying sense of urgency that I can't shake, no matter how hard I try to ignore it. It’s like when you’re watching a massive storm roll in over the Midwest; you see those clouds building up on the horizon, all dark and heavy, and you just know that things are about to get intense. That’s exactly how I feel looking at the current state of things. We talk and we talk, and we debate and we argue, but does anyone actually feel like we're making progress? Or are we just spinning our wheels in the sand while the world keeps turning faster and faster? I find myself staring out the window sometimes, wondering if everyone else feels this same restless energy, or if it's just me being overly sensitive about the way society is evolving. It’s exhausting, truly, to constantly be processing these shifts, but I think it's important that we stay awake to it, even if staying awake is the hardest part. Carl Lee27 says:
Regarding that whole thing about how nobody thought to fill up the gas storage facilities during the summer months... honestly, I think you might be missing the mark on this one.
🙄
Wait, seriously? You’re telling me I’m wrong? Are you actually, for real, absolutely certain about that?

Quincey:
I honestly don't even know where to start with this one because there is just so much to unpack, but I feel like we really need to sit down and talk about what’s actually happening here. It feels like everyone is rushing toward a conclusion without really looking at the nuances, you know? I was sitting there thinking about it this morning—probably over too much coffee, if I'm being honest—and it hit me how much we tend to overlook the small details that actually drive the big shifts in our society. It's like when people talk about major economic changes in the US; they focus on the massive headlines from Wall Street, but they forget about the actual impact on a family living in a suburb outside of Chicago or something similar. We need to be more thoughtful! I'm not trying to be difficult, I promise, I'm just genuinely concerned that we're losing that sense of careful observation. I mean, look at how we react to everything lately—it's all instant gratification and quick takes, whereas I think we owe it to ourselves to slow down just a little bit and really weigh the consequences before we jump on the bandwagon. Does anyone else feel that weight, or am I just overthinking things again? I really want to hear what you guys think, truly. Carl Lee27 says:
Look, there’s really no point in underestimating us Americans, regardless of who you might personally root for or whatever side you think is winning the argument... but let's be real here, it's not like there are 500 million idiots living in the EU.
Oh, man, just what we needed. Right in the heart of Europe, you’ve got this massive powerhouse—the literal engine of the EU—acting like they’re being dead serious when they try to pull the plug on nuclear energy just so they can pretend natural gas is some kind of "green" miracle solution. It’s all happening under the guise of fighting climate change, of course, but honestly, it feels like such a massive, misguided pivot.
I mean, let’s be real here—there is absolutely no way you could cram 500 million idiots into the EU when the total population is only around 447 million! The math just doesn't add up, does it? It's physically impossible!

I honestly don't even have the energy to dive into all that Russian propaganda nonsense right now. I'm just not going to touch it.

Anthony Hill5 said:I have already laid out the reasons why such a feat is impossible.

As for the broader fallout from these sanctions—

Revolut has officially blocked all monetary transactions within Russia and Belarus.

PayPal is pulling out of Russia altogether.

Furthermore, JPMorgan predicts that Russia is headed toward a total economic collapse, mirroring the disaster seen back in 1998.

JPMorgan Warns Russia Faces 1998-Like Collapse in Economy

Export earnings disrupted, imports set to buckle, analysts say
Federal Reserve sanctions and the SWIFT cut-off have intensified the pressure.


Is it not inevitable that twenty years from now, instead of debating the drunken antics of Yeltsin, the new generations will be dissecting the era of a botoxed Putin?

You haven't actually explained anything at all here; you've just laid out your own ideological biases and some personal wishful thinking that I honestly think is more likely to be granted by a genie in a bottle than by any kind of "green" energy policy coming out of the EU.
And even that, just in really brief bullet points.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:What on earth does your question have to do with my stance on fracking? My opinion on that specific method of extraction has absolutely nothing to do with the current crisis or the energy policies of the EU.

The EU should have taken precautions much earlier to prevent this catastrophe; I pointed out long ago in a PDF that the Germans were essentially digging their own grave by pushing forward with Nord Stream 2, a project that effectively funds the Russian military and fuels the destabilization of the entire EU.

The gas business with Russia will persist for years to come, continuing right up until the moment the EU manages to construct the necessary infrastructure required for diversifying supply and ensuring further distribution.

At this very moment, even if we had an infinite supply of American gas at our disposal, it wouldn't provide significant relief because we simply lack sufficient LNG terminals, nor are there enough LNG tankers in existence to transport that volume of gas.

They're Magnificent, honestly, because it's really the only way we can kick Russia out of the European energy market entirely. We need fracking in the US, and frankly, we should be doing it in Europe too.

Bryan Booth82 said:The answer is actually far more straightforward than the complexity being forced upon us here.

Diversification is the golden rule, and fortunately, the EU seems to finally be waking up to that reality... or more simply put: if we were previously pulling roughly 50% of our supply from cheap Russian gas, the goal now is to cut that dependency in half.
What supports this strategy is the fact that there is enough gas available even without Russia, especially when you consider how drastically energy consumption fluctuates depending on the season.

Best regards,

Not really, especially not over in Europe.
And wow, you really nailed that point about the seasons—truly a stroke of genius there, because I'm sure absolutely nobody in Europe ever thought to fill up the storage facilities during the summer months.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Let me just circle back and really drive this point home because we’re talking about sanctions on Russia here: where on earth is Europe supposed to pull 550 billion cubic meters of gas from every single year? Like, specifically? Where is Europe going to go to refill all those storage facilities? If it isn't coming from Russia, and if we aren't looking at massive fracking operations in the USA—which I know was what the previous guy was suggesting—then where exactly is this gas coming from?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Anthony Hill5 said:Trump is a fool, and fracking destroys both nature and people. Any initiative that helps bring an end to that kind of exploitation is welcome.

And where exactly is Europe supposed to be getting its gas from anyway?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Maria Moore said:Blinken speaking in Brussels today:
"Asked by CNN whether the US is considering energy sanctions against Russia, Blinken said "nothing is off the table" - but added that it is not in the US interest to cut the global energy supply, as this would send the price of oil surging."

So Blinken’s basically saying it’s not in the USA's best interest to slap sanctions on Russian oil and gas imports!
What about the EU?

Look, in this specific situation, Americans are actually looking out for their allies here. The US has been a net energy exporter for quite a while now—I'm pretty sure we're even net exporters of natural gas at this point—so we have that cushion, whereas Europe is the one that's left incredibly vulnerable to these shifts.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
So, circling back to that whole debate we were having—you know, the one about what actually stops someone in Russia from just smuggling an iPhone in from China—well, I think I finally found the real-world answer. Honestly, when you look at it this way, the true value of a smartphone isn't the hardware itself, but all the stuff happening behind the screen. We're heading toward a reality where a massive chunk of what makes Android and iOS devices actually useful is going to vanish overnight. It’s scary to think about, but if Apple and Google don't pull out of these markets themselves, the government will eventually just shut down the app stores entirely.

The Kremlin is blocking access to Facebook, Twitter, and various app stores

https://arstechnica.com/tech-policy/...&utm_brand=ars
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Apparently, Facebook just got banned in Russia

My bad, here's the actual link
https://twitter.com/rianru/status/14...ewokoE0Vg&s=19
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
It looks like Microsoft is following Oracle's lead and pulling out of Russia too

https://www.reuters.com/business/mic...ia-2022-03-04/
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
It honestly feels like the ripple effects of Germany’s decision to hand over their energy security and independence to Russia—whether they did that on purpose or just by being incredibly careless, I'll let you folks decide—are finally starting to wash over all of Europe too.
Fuel prices are already climbing, and I saw that TTF just took a massive jump from 150 up to 190 today. This whole spike in energy costs is just going to feed right into higher inflation, which means the Fed is eventually going to be forced to hike interest rates, which ultimately leads us down the path toward an economic slowdown or, given how things are looking right now, even a full-blown recession.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Honestly, we can't just rule out a recession hitting Europe anytime soon. It’s like the whole continent basically let itself get hooked on Russian energy, and now, if Germany suddenly loses its gas supply, things are going to go south incredibly fast. We're looking at some seriously major problems if that happens.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
briskdrifter3 said:I fear this black-and-white way of looking at things will eventually backfire—specifically, that the entire Western financial system might be destabilized by these hysterical, rushed sanctions triggered by this war.

As for the conflict itself, I remain neutral... my only wish is for it to end as quickly as possible, because with every passing day, the toll on ordinary people—people who simply want to work and live their lives—continues to rise.

What troubles me most is this frantic narrative suggesting the conflict will only expand and spiral out of control. It is my belief that only through reason and true calmness can any meaningful compromise be reached during negotiations to finally bring this to an end...

So, I’m curious—is there actually any solid evidence out there to back up that theory?
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
silverotter72 said:It isn't just the local Russophiles who seem to be completely deluded about how sanctions actually work. You even have people in the space industry acting this way:
https://www.ndtv.com/world-news/ukra...-to-us-2801410

"In a situation like this we can't supply the United States with our world's best rocket engines. Let them fly on something else, their broomsticks, I don't know what," Rogozin said on state Russian television.

Honestly, it’s almost pathetic how ridiculous this sounds.

On a different note, the Russians are trying to develop some kind of competition—basically just a knockoff of the Falcon 9.
https://www.space.com/russia-announc...le-rocket-amur
SpaceX has driven costs down so aggressively that they're basically eating the entire market for LEO cargo, which used to be where the traditional players were really strong. They were aiming for their first flight in 2026, but if you ask me, I'm betting they'll miss those deadlines entirely.
Sanctions on Russia in War in Ukraine ·
Visegrád 24
@visegrad24
People in Russia are absolutely panicking and rushing to buy up furniture at IKEA now that the Swedish giant has decided to pull out of Russia and Belarus entirely.

https://twitter.com/visegrad24/statu...93289790832642